The At Large 1 contest

Here are your contestants, in alphabetical order by last name, from the city's filings page.  I'm only linking to the pages of the candidates that I believe have a realistic shot at the seat.

• Michael "Griff" Griffin
• Mike Knox
• Lane Lewis
• Tom McCasland
• Chris Oliver
• James Partsch-Galván
• Jenifer Rene Pool
• Georgia Provost

Last go first.

Griff and Partsch-Galván are perennial losing candidates for city council.  That's really all that can be said about either man.  Wait; Griff lost his tenth bid for city council in 2011 and promised us then that it was his final race, and he used to own a fun, dive-y sports bar that still has his name on it.  JP-G is a freak.  Now that's all.

Provost made the runoff in District D two years ago, clearing a field of twelve with 14% to face off against Dwight Boykins.  She ultimately fell to the incumbent, who had garnered almost enough votes (42.9%) to avoid the runoff.  She is well-known in the African American community as a professional photographer, businesswoman, TSU alum and fundraiser with Alan Helfman, the proprietor of River Oaks Chrysler Dodge Jeep.

Speaking of Boykins, he was the only African American council member who voted against the HERO last year... but he then voted to sustain it last month.  The equal rights ordinance is likely where AL1 will turn, with Pool (a trans-woman) and Lewis (a gay man, also chair of the Harris County Democrats) leading the contingent of pro-tolerance liberals among the Houston electorate.

Pool has run for at-large seats on council in 2011 and 2013, missing the runoff both times.  She has clashed with HGLBT favorite son Lewis a couple of times as well, most recently when she lost the Caucus endorsement last month.  Two years ago, she and the other three Dems -- Rogene Calvert, Roland Chavez, and Brad Batteau -- canceled each other out, allowing Republican Paul Kubosh to defeat Republican Roy Morales in AL3's runoff.  This same dynamic is in play for AL1 this time around.

Of these two, Lewis -- whom I support -- is most likely to move into the runoff.  He has by far the most endorsements, momentum, etc. to be left standing on the evening of November 3rd.  IMHO the only question is who will join him for the December round from among Knox, McCasland, and Oliver.

Knox -- former USAF, former HPD, defeated two years ago in the Stardig/Helena Brown second-time scrum in District A -- is running this time on what's being called the "straight slate".  Knox is the only reasonable Republican option (I am not counting Griff and P-G as reasonable, though they are certainly GOP).  If you think this is going to be a 'bathroom' election, and I do, then it's going to be Knox and Lewis in the final round.

McCasland is roundly praised for efforts in addressing public housing in the county, has the bonafides to be an effective council member, but is supported by too many of the local Democratic Party's conservative wing for my taste.  Bob Stein at U of H likes him as the best chance to move ahead with Lewis, but I am of the opinion that if the Democrats split their votes among their four very qualified candidates in this race, McCasland -- mostly by virtue of having the lowest name recognition -- is the odd man out in a strong field.

Oliver, elected a couple of times to the Houston Community College Board of Trustees -- often a stepping stone to a Council seat -- is the only black man in the race and received the endorsement of the Houston Black Dems, so I rate his chances ahead of Provost's, who doesn't have much online presence to speak of this cycle.  Google returns a lot of activity from two years ago, but she hasn't Tweeted since 2011, her Facebook page is low-profile, and a website in her name is inactive.  Oliver is running hard and has a good platform, but appears to be mum about HERO, from what I can find.  I cannot discount his shot at being one of the top two at the end, but somebody needs to get him on record as favoring or opposing the equal rights ordinance.  It's possible that Provost is only on the ballot to draw down his bid.

Prediction for the runoff: Lewis and either Knox or Oliver.

The very latest HERO developments

Here's an example of a bathroom right here in Houston that both sexes use that isn't disgusting, filthy, or unsafe.  It was in the mechanic's shop where I got my truck's state inspection performed earlier today, and it was clean, smelled nice, and was completely safe for men and women, cis- and trans- alike.  In fact, you have seen bathrooms like these all over the city, and similar bathrooms all over Texas, the United States, and even in European countries if you have been fortunate to travel there.

The terrorists screaming vulgarities on your radio are, in a word, Neanderthals.  They are throwing rocks at the moon.  You should no more allow them to foment panic in you any more than yesterday's stock market gyrations did.

Would you need more concrete proof?  Take a look at this, courtesy Holy Bullies and Headless Monsters, from Equality Matters.

For as long as the transgender community has fought for protection from discrimination in public spaces, conservatives have peddled the myth that sexual predators will exploit non-discrimination laws to sneak into women's restrooms. 

That fear has been an extremely effective tool for scaring people into voting against even basic protections for transgender people, which is why conservatives routinely use the phrase "bathroom bill" to describe laws prohibiting discrimination in public accommodations. When conservative media outlets attack non-discrimination laws for transgender people, they almost exclusively focus on bathroom and locker room facilities. 

But that fear is baseless -- completely unsupported by years of evidence from states that already have non-discrimination laws on the books. In a new Equality Matters report, experts from twelve states -- including law enforcement officials, state human rights workers, and sexual assault victims advocates -- debunk the myth that non-discrimination laws have any relation to incidents of sexual assault or harassment in public restrooms:

Public restrooms aren't a new battleground for civil rights. Social conservatives frequently invoke "bathroom panic" to justify discrimination against marginalized groups. As Lambda Legal notes, the regulation of bathrooms has been used as a tool to exclude people of color, women, and people with disabilities from participating in public spaces.

But the claim that sexual predators will exploit non-discrimination laws to sneak into women's restrooms is a lie, plain and simple. It's a lie that is unsupported by even a shred of evidence and contradicted by years of experience in states that already have non-discrimination laws on the books. It's a lie that does tremendous damage to efforts to protect transgender people from violence and harassment, which often occur in public restrooms. And it's a lie that persists because conservative media outlets would rather tout made-up stories about sexual harassment than fact-check the anti-LGBT groups who invent those stories from whole cloth.

Fear, hate, and intolerance has spawned a remarkable bipartisan effort locally.

The Houston Stonewall Young Democrats (HSYD) and the Log Cabin Republicans of Houston (LCRH) have decided to work together to protect the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO) from being repealed. 

One might not expect anything to bring the two parties together, least of all HERO, which has been fought tooth and nail by a group of local conservatives. This is the first time the two organizations have ever participated in a joint effort; in fact, they are the only two-party organizations in Houston working together. 

The leadership displayed by HSYD and LCRH can teach us all a valuable lesson, not just about cooperation and collaboration, but also about HERO. As James Lee, president of HSYD stated, “We have come together, despite our differences, because the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance is more important than party affiliation.” 

“It is always good when people can come together on a bipartisan basis to come to good legislation,” added Michael Baker, the Vice President of LCRH.

Nobody could have foreseen that.

As the most ethnically and culturally diverse city in the nation, a city of 2.2 million people with varying beliefs, traditions, backgrounds and idiosyncrasies, it is time to move forward together. Houston is the only major city in the country and the only major city in Texas that does not have an equal rights ordinance of any kind.

The HSYD and LCRH put it plainly. “We believe that all Houstonians should have the right to live, work, and prosper in our great city, and HERO will provide them the ability to do just that.”

Post time for Houston's city elections

Yesterday was the filing deadline, and first via Kuff, here is your lineup card for November 3rd.  Stace has some thoughts on who he prefers, and we are in general agreement.  Here's the Chron story, focusing more on council elections and reactions from people like Bob Stein and Dr. Richard Murray at U of H.

A total of thirteen mayoral hopefuls, and this post will shine a brief spotlight on the seven with little chance of influencing the race, much less making the runoff.

Marty McVey belongs among these also-rans, despite his many forum appearances with the big six, and even despite his fairly progressive platform.  He's just out of his league in this contest, despite good effort and intentions.

Aubrey Taylor's blog has spent a lot of pixels promoting the candidacy of Victoria Lane, who is running on an anti-HERO platform.  Lane and Demetria Smith -- whom you may recall as the candidate initially excluded from the TOP/SEIU forum last month, until her supporters demanded and got a place for her on the dais -- stand as the two people who could draw off enough votes to keep Ben Hall from making the runoff.  Taylor is your go-to guy for all things African American, socially conservative, and those who wish to appeal to that caucus.  (Taylor has also performed the courtesy of reminding us which members of City Council voted for or against the ordinance earlier this year.  You should expect some races to turn on that vote, as well as some candidates' stands on the issue.  More on that when I get to city council races in a future post.)

By contrast, I would not expect Rafael Munoz nor Joe Ferreira to pull many votes away from Adrian Garcia, by virtue of either their Latino surnames nor their low-profile candidacies.  So unlike Hall -- and all the many other Af-Am candidates on the ballot, a factor which should boost turnout in those precincts around the city -- either Garcia's "community will turn out in historic numbers" for him... or they won't.

Of the remaining long shots, Thai Hoc Nguyen is a conservative Republican who lost to former Council member Al Hoang in 2009 in District F -- who himself was upset in 2013 by incumbent Richard Nguyen (no relation), and Dale Steffes is a perennial candidate who, in the words of Texas Monthly's Greg Curtis (in 1999) is "a maverick oil-price prognosticator who now runs his consulting business out of his home".  He's more favorably and recently quoted in this story.  Nothing obvious about his political inclinations, but I'd be interested in his forecast for crude prices.

The next mayor of Houston will still come down to two of Garcia, Hall, Bill King, Steven Costello, Chris Bell, and Sylvester Turner, and ultimately determined in December.

We'll take a look at the the At-Large races next.

Anti-HERO ads roll out "filthy" and "disgusting"

Here we go.

"No men in women's bathrooms," the incendiary and misleading ad begins. "This ordinance will allow men to freely go into women’s bathrooms, locker rooms and showers. That is filthy, that is disgusting, and that is unsafe," the woman, falsely, says in the ad. She also claims to speak for "all moms, sisters, and daughters," which is false.

The group sponsoring the ad is called the Campaign For Houston, and it's headed by Jared Woodfill, a 47-year old attorney and former chairman of the Republican Party of Harris County, Texas.

That's a awful lot of lies and fear to combat.

It falsely claims HERO "limits free speech and religious expression in unprecedented ways," "gives new special privileges to two special interests, neither of which qualify as true 'minorities' requiring special legal protection," and calls HERO's "naming of these groups ... a ruse in an attempt to hide the ordinance’s real purpose, which is to make 'sexual orientation' and 'gender identification' two new protected classes." It also falsely claims sexual orientation and gender identification "are defined by their behaviors -- not by characteristics given to them at birth.

Calling the ad "not subtle," ThinkProgress' Zack Ford offers a few observations:

Gender identity, as protected by HERO, is not something that can be flipflopped every day, and moreover, predatory behavior is still illegal. If HERO fails to pass, it will actually force many men into women’s restrooms, the very outcome they claim to oppose.

Houston Unites calls the ad "vulgar and grossly misleading."

"Nothing in the equal rights ordinance changes the fact that it is -- and always will be -- illegal to enter a restroom to harm or harass other people," the group told the Houston Chronicle. "And the ad leaves out the fact that the law protects tens of thousands of Houstonians from job discrimination based their race, age, religion, sexual orientation, gender identity, and disability."

Good rationales, but I'm concerned there aren't enough smart people in Houston to overcome a tidal wave of ignorance motivated by their God-given phobias.  You can listen to the ad if you can tolerate it at the link, but it's also coming to a radio near you.  Turning it off, changing the station, and otherwise generally ignoring the widespread panic from your conservative acquaintances misses the point: the weaponized paranoia is going to hit its intended target.  And the social Neanderthals are going to turn out in record numbers to vote against it.

Maybe a few more signatures on that petition to the NFL to pull the 2017 Super Bowl out of Houston might get the attention of the pro-business, pro-tolerance Republicans, but I hope Mayor Parker and her group have some strong counter-efforts ready to go soon.

More on the Houston municipal elections

-- If Ben Hall and Sylvester Turner make the runoff for mayor (maybe even before November), expect to see some fireworks along the lines of the Wayne Dolcefino/KTRK lawsuit which arose during the last days of the runoff almost 25 years ago (between Turner and Bob Lanier).  They battled to a draw in court, with the television station and then-investigative reporter found guilty of libeling Turner, but the14th Court of Appeals reversed the jury's decision.  Dolcefino is now a consultant advising Hall's campaign.

-- Chris Bell's profile in yesterday's Chronicle.  Relevant passage:

"I don't see any shame in running and not winning," Bell said. "The shame should be in not caring and not trying."

I think that's a win for me, Dr. Murray.

-- Houston Matters is interviewing mayorals, with Bell and Hall already in the can and Marty McVey coming tomorrow.  Kuff is logging his hours with the council candidates; here's his latest with AL4 candidate Jonathan Hansen, and links to many more.  Texas Leftist is posting his candidate questionnaires also; here's his most recent with District H's Roland Chavez.

-- And a programming note: the Texas Democratic Women of Harris County kicks off their Fall Speaker Series hosting Dr. Krista Comer of Rice University (not U of H, as the graphic below shows) at their monthly meeting this evening.

Dr. Comer's topic, "Youth Politics and Third Wave Feminism", focuses on two demographics that did not turn out in 2014, and what steps might be taken to boost their participation in 2015 and '16.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance liked it better when politicians wanted to kiss babies and not deport them as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff took a closer look at who votes in City of Houston elections.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos, and contributing to Daily Kos, notes that when the GOP whistled for the dogs it ushered in the wolves. The GOP deserves its monster.

Fresh off his vacation, and as it approaches its centennial, SocraticGadfly casts a critical eye at what he describes as the decline and fall of the National Park Service.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme notes that Donald Trump is exposing the world to the racism consuming the GOP along with its authoritarian, 2nd amendment mindset.

It was all Houston mayoral elections all last week for PDiddie at Brains and Eggs, who attended a forum in his back yard, smelled some oligarchy in the HGLBT Caucus endorsement, covered the two adverse developments for the HERO, and witnessed Chris Bell's smackdown of Adrian Garcia.

Texas Leftist marks the tenth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina and how it changed Houston.

The Lewisville Texan Journal reports on the bond issues facing voters in that city.

Egberto Willies recounts Hillary Clinton's meeting with Black Lives Matter activists and wonders if it was her Sister Souljah moment.

With Bernie Sanders running strongly for 2016, Neil at All People Have Value wrote that polling data reports more and more Americans are open to socialism. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Carol Morgan covers the rise of Trump, made in America for Americans.

Grits for Breakfast makes the observation that overbuilt county jails have turned the for-profit prison system into a bust.

Paradise in Hell previews the fried delicacies that await us at this year's State Fair of Texas.

The Lunch Tray confirms that Americans do indeed want kids to eat healthier food at school.

Texas Watch tells you what's really driving the cost of your car insurance bill.

Alexa Garcia-Ditta takes you on a tour of San Antonio's new HB2-compliant abortion facility.

Tamara Tabo explains why you haven't heard more about all those bikers who were arrested in Waco in May.

Somervell County Salon has several blog posts and video of that county's hospital district and Glen Rose Medical Center's meetings.

The Makeshift Academic reports that Arkansas has fully embraced Medicaid expansion.

Pamela Coloff awards the title of Worst Lawyer in Texas to disgraced and now disbarred former prosecutor Charles Sebesta.

And Fascist Dyke Motors would like to teach a class in 'How to be a Feral Child in the City".