Earl W. Dorrell 1929 - 2013

That's my Dad, whom I have referenced here a time or two.

USN Seabees, 1947

In the past few weeks, complications from end-stage dementia worsened his suffering, and so his peaceful passage this morning is, truly, a blessing.

Date and age uncertain, but a little before the first one.

After he and my mother divorced when I was 16 years old, Dad went on to remarry a woman from his church, June Davis, who had her own children our ages -- we had all gone to school together -- and they traveled the country in their "fifth wheel" in retirement.  They also made a couple of trips overseas, one to the Holy Land.

My stepmother passed away peacefully at home in December of 2011, and after that my father and mother enjoyed a reconciliation.  They had lunch often and other visits to look at old photos and remember and laugh about the good times on several occasions over the past year-and-a-half.  Here's a photo we all took at Mom's 87th birthday celebration this past June.

Requiescat in pace, Pop.

Some personal updates

-- This Ben Hall business is not something I can post about as long as I am serving on the Early Voting Ballot Board. I have an opinion about it, of course, but I won't be sharing it.

-- Besides my electoral responsibilities, my father's health has taken a grave turn and so, as a consequence, you should anticipate light blogging here in the days ahead.

Thanks for everyone's good thoughts.

Federal judge rules Texas abortion restrictions unconstitutional, Abbott appeals - Update: And wins stay

It ain't over, though, until it gets to the 5th Circuit -- or the Supremes, and there's really no reason to celebrate.  First, today's developments and then the analysis.

Attorney General Greg Abbott has filed an appeal to Monday’s ruling striking down a key provision of Texas’s new abortion law, according to a new court filing in the case.

U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel ruled Monday that a provision to require abortion providers to have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals is unconstitutional.

Yeakel also partially blocked new restrictions on pregnancy-ending drugs, saying they “may not be enforced against any physician who determines, in appropriate medical judgment, to perform a medication-abortion using the off-label protocol for the preservation of the life or health of the mother.” New regulations for abortion-inducing drugs are set to kick in at midnight, except in cases when women have medical conditions that can make surgical abortion “extremely difficult or impossible,” according to the ruling.

[...]

Abbott filed the appeal about an hour after the ruling was made public Monday afternoon.

That he had it all ready to go tells you everything.

"The court upheld part of the law and enjoined part of the law," Abbott spokesman Lauren Bean said in a statement. "The State has already appealed the court’s ruling. We appreciate the trial court’s attention in this matter. As everyone – including the trial court judge – has acknowledged, this is a matter that will ultimately be resolved by the appellate courts or the U.S. Supreme Court."

Thanks, Captain Obvious Bean.  Now to the judge, GW Bush appointee Yeakel.  The excerpt below is from the second link at the top.

An equally important section of Yeakel’s opinion, however, offers less welcome news for women seeking abortions. In brief, the Food and Drug Administration approved a particular method of terminating a pregnancy via medication in 2000. Since then, doctors developed an alternative method that is endorsed by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), but has not yet been approved by the FDA. This alternative method requires lower doses than the FDA-approved method, and it also enables the woman to make fewer visits to the doctor’s office. Notably, because one of the drugs used in medical abortions “triggers almost immediate bleeding and cramping,” the alternative method allows women to administer the drugs at home — rather than have to undergo the uncomfort caused by the drugs in an unfamiliar clinical setting.

Texas’ law permits doctors to prescribe the reduced doses used by the alternative method, but Yeakel reads the Texas law to “not allow the physician to follow the administration or route portions of the off-label protocol.” Among other things, this forces women into a cold clinical setting while they are enduring the effects of the abortion drugs.

Judge Yeakel, however, finds nothing constitutionally wrong with Texas forcing women to endure such unnecessary hardship in order to obtain an abortion. Quoting the Supreme Court’s decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, Yeakel holds that “the incidental effect of making it more difficult or more expensive to procure an abortion cannot be enough to invalidate” the Texas law. When “reasonable alternative procedure[s]” are available, a state’s decision to ban one particular procedure is not unconstitutional, even if that is the least painful, least time-consuming or least demeaning procedure available to the woman. “Individuals do not have a constitutional right to a preferred medical option, so long as a safe, medically accepted, and actual alternative exists.”

So the upshot of Yeakel’s opinion is that Texas cannot ban abortion. Nor can they create entire swaths of their state where abortions are nearly impossible to obtain. But they can effectively punish women by making them endure unnecessary pain, hardship or invasiveness before they can exercise their right to choose. Should Yeakel’s decision stand, it is practically an invitation for lawmakers to impose needless pain on women seeking abortions.

This law is traveling a path to the SCOTUS, where they may strike down some of the freedoms granted in Roe v. Wade forty years ago.  That's what conservatives have been praying for all along.

But there's a long way to go before this legislation meets its fate and makes its history.  In the meantime, Texas voters -- along with those in the other states who suffer under Republican state governance -- can get started turning back the tide by voting out these goddamned Austin Republican misogynists in 2014.

(T)he Democrats must also begin to overcome GOP dominance of the state legislatures. 2020 is the crucial date. If the Democrats fail to retake a substantial number of these state chambers by then, the Republicans will be able to continue the 2011 gerrymandering in 2021. We can likely expect far more state conservative legislation against voting rights, reproductive rights, unions and more. Given the Tea Party's influence within the GOP and its many billionaire backers, gridlock could also continue in Congress — even if the Democrats win every presidential election or the Senate for years to come.

And it's going take a lot more people than this to get it done.

Update: Dahlia Lithwick, the country's pre-eminent Supreme Court observer IMO, points out that the ruling gives a victory to pro-choicers and a even minor one to pro-lifers, but settles nothing.  And disregard completely the spin of political consultants like these -- and the media that consults them, and the word-parsing that precedes and follows -- which is emanating like gas from a swamp.

Update (10/31): Happy Halloween...

In its 20-page ruling, the appeals court panel acknowledged that the provision "may increase the cost of accessing an abortion provider and decrease the number of physicians available to perform abortions." However, the panel said that the U.S. Supreme Court has held that having "the incidental effect of making it more difficult or more expensive to procure an abortion cannot be enough to invalidate" a law that serves a valid purpose, "one not designed to strike at the right itself."

Harris County's swollen EV turnout

Early voting totals remain at historically high levels.  Whether this portends a wave election will have to wait for election day turnout, as both Kuff and Greg in the comments suggest that it's not liable to be as big as it may seem.  A bit from the end of that post is worth repeating.

Note the huge shift in 2008 to majority early voting, which has continued in the two subsequent elections. You may recall that this shift was perceived at the time to be a portent of things to come, which led to some irrationally exuberant predictions about final turnout. Turnout was up from the previous Presidential election, but not nearly as much as many of us thought it would be. The vast majority of the early voters were the old reliables, and the net effect was that by Election Day itself, we’d run short of people who still needed to vote.

Do I know this for sure? No, of course not. I do expect turnout will be up from 2011, but I don’t believe we’re seeing anything unexpected. One other piece of evidence I have for this belief comes from the analyses that Kyle Johnston does on the early vote rosters. Here’s the 2009 version, and the version from the first five days of 2013 EV. The first thing that stands out to me is that in 2009, 92% of the early vote overall was cast by people who had voted in at least 2 of the last 3 municipal election. For the first five EV days of 2013, it’s 90%. In other words, it’s the old reliables voting. They’re just voting earlier.

... Other useful tidbits from Johnston’s analysis is that so far about 70% of the total Harris County vote has come from City of Houston voters; in 2009, the figure was 72% for all early votes. In other words, non-Houston voting is up a smidge, perhaps thanks to the Astrodome, but not much. The racial breakdown of the vote has some people talking about runoff prospects in the Mayor’s race. I’ll just say that unlike city/county and past voting history, racial data is not directly available but must be derived inferentially. Doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate, just inexact.

As for Johnston, he might be accurate about the rest, but I just can't place any faith in his analysis -- in fact I wouldn't even call it that -- of guessing voters' ethnicity based on name.

Projecting that, and then their voting inclination, is frankly nothing but a SWAG.  Anecdotally there's all kinds of evidence that easily refutes the premise; my brother Neil Aquino is no Latino and city council candidate David Robinson isn't quite African American, for two examples.  My wife is Cuban but nothing about her name gives that away.  But the main problem with his data, as Johnston himself notes, is that redistricting changed ... well, pretty much everything.

Today, as early polls opened on the 12-hour cycle for the final week, we finally began to see the far-flung suburban areas (read: Republican) start to pick up the pace.  I am much more comfortable projecting voting patterns based on geography than anything else.

Voting in this year's municipal election is up, it may be way up, and whether that is behavior modification or something else is a question we'll just have to wait until the end of Election Day to answer.  The real news is that the photo ID requirement has possibly energized early turnout, and for that we may very well have Greg Abbott and the rest of the GOP to thank.

What a kick in the head that will be if it goes against them.

The Frightful Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance has its Halloween costume ready -- can you guess what it is? -- as it bring you this weeks' roundup.

Off the Kuff examines the recent R to D party switches in Bexar County.

Horwitz at Texpatriate discusses the recent shakeups in statewide races.

Two more Democrats announced their intentions to run statewide, for the US Senate and the lieutenant governorship, over the weekend. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs has the details.

Eye On Williamson is still blogging at our temporary home. The corporate toll road experiment is not going well in Texas because TxDOT can't pave roads in South Texas, but they can erect signs, do marketing and subsidies, and provide welfare for a corporate toll road: The road to nowhere.

Looking to stay the right course on a new effort after 6 years writing Texas Liberal, Neil at All People Have Value updated his blog throughout the last week. All People Have Value is part of NeilAquino.com.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme updates one of the TPA's moldy oldies, Tom DeLay, and his latest effort to get to the engine of the Republican crazy train.

======================================

And here are some other Texas blog posts of interest.

Mark Bennett offers a "revenge porn" statute that might pass constitutional muster.

Grits for Breakfast asks if police shootings of mentally ill folks are on the rise.

The Makeshift Academic wrapped up a four-part analysis of the progressive nature of Obamacare taxation.

Nonsequiteuse wants to know why encouraging condom usage isn't compatible with the principles of demonstrating courtesy and encouraging responsible behavior.

The TSTA blog criticizes merit pay bonuses for teachers.

Texas Vox regrets a missed opportunity for cleaner air in Texas.

Jessica Luther reminds us that Wendy Davis was far from alone during her filibuster.

And Juanita Jean suggests a campaign slogan for Ted Nugent.

Sunday Funnies

Texas Dems pick up two more statewide candidates

At last night's Harris County Democratic fundraiser, the Johnson Rayburn Richards dinner, a young attorney from El Paso introduced herself as the forthcoming Democratic nominee for United States Senate from the Great State.

Her name is Maxey Scherr. You can learn more about her for now at her law firm's website (scroll down) where there's this video.



Scherr was escorted around in part by former US Senate Democratic nominee Barbara Radnofsky at last night's gala. Here's another picture of her with Meyerland Dem president Art Pronin.

Formal announcement and campaign promotion to follow shortly. The Dems will have another woman running at the top of the ticket, as Maria Luisa Alvarado -- the 2006 nominee -- has again thrown her hat into the ring for lieutenant governor.  She defeated two men in the primary that year (Gene Kelly and Ben Grant) but went on to lose to David Dewhurst to the tune of 58-37, with the Libertarian in the race pulling about 4%.

With this slate as it stands, Texas Dems are obviously going to mobilize the female vote, about which much has been written already.  If the turnout in Harris County for the municipal elections is any determinant, then the future looks bright (as high voter turnout is usually to the benefit of the Democrats).

Reaction to these developments from other quarters will be added to this post later.

Update: Here's the Alvarado campaign's press release.  Excerpt:

At Starbucks in Arlington earlier this week, Alvarado encouraged friends to continue collecting petition signatures for her. She stated that she will continue what she began in 2006. “I am determined that every citizen in Texas deserves the same thing – fairness, opportunity, good education, affordable healthcare, jobs that pay a decent wage and offer rewards for excellence. All Texans deserve a level playing field in the political process; to be heard by their elected representatives.”

She also stated that she "has never stopped working to engage the one million additional citizens who currently have not voted." Maria Luisa said: "These are the folks we must have for a Democrat to win a general election. I’m going after those who aren't at Democratic club meetings, who are not listed in the VAN with voting histories. I’m going for those who think their vote doesn't make enough difference for them to show up. I’m saying that every Texan is necessary for us to make our communities better and to improve things for everyone in Texas."

Riding your bike to the revolution

-- Critical Mass, the monthly flashmob on bicycles, is happening again this evening.  If you're not a fan of anarchy in action, then steer your car away from it.  Don't be like Ken Hoffman or even my friend Neil and whine about it.

It's just another component of the disruptor society we live in now.  Adapt.

-- There's some polling out that suggests that politicians are missing the boat on the issue that is at the forefront of Americans' minds...

If only the politicians would listen to the polls. Yes, you read that right. What is happening in Washington symbolizes a dangerous disconnect between the priorities of the voters and those of their elected leaders.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll this week found that 75 percent of all Americans consider the economy to be in “not so good” or “poor” condition. The 2 percent in the poll who pronounce the economy to be in “excellent” shape presumably work on Wall Street.

The voters get it. “I have done a lot of focus groups in the last few years,” says Republican strategist David Winston, who advises the House and Senate GOP leadership. “And there’s one number that people know — and that’s the unemployment rate. And they’re sophisticated about it. They know that the unemployment rate understates things because of people leaving the workforce.”

Every poll tells the same story about what animates voters. A mid-September CBS News/New York Times poll, conducted before the government shutdown, found that 34 percent of Americans call the economy and jobs “the most important problem facing this country today.” In contrast, only 8 percent highlighted health care and a paltry 6 percent singled out the budget deficit and the national debt.

...but apparently not Texans' minds, and certainly not in the minds of Houstonians. 

Political analysts said economic development is an important policy discussion, but a less useful political one. A recent poll showed 12 percent of voters chose jobs and the economy as the city's most important problem, behind crime, roads and traffic; two years ago, 43 percent chose jobs and the economy.

I would suggest, obviously, that this is because the Houston and Texas economy are booming.  This irony seems to be another part of the Lone Star disconnect previously mentioned.

-- Speaking of revolution...

The British left weekly New Statesman has taken a chance on an up-and-coming rogue editor, but the actor-comedian and newly welcomed progressive-minded firebrand Russell Brand seems so far to be a brilliant and elegant choice.

Tapped to guest-edit the magazine's 'Revolution' issue this week, Brand is making waves both for his feature-length essay on the topic but also with a televised interview that aired Wednesday night on the BBC with veteran Newsnight anchor Jeremy Paxman. In the ten-minute interview, the 38-year-old Brand points at the futility of voting in a corrupt democratic system determined to serve the interests of the ruling class and not only predicts, but guarantees, that the "disenfranchised, disillusioned underclass" created by the current economic and political system—both in the UK and worldwide—will rise up in popular revolution against the failings of the current corporate-controlled paradigm.

Paxman questioned why a comedian such as Brand, especially one who doesn't vote, should be trusted to offer his views on the political system.

"I don't get my authority from this preexisting paradigm which is quite narrow and only serves a few people," Russell responded, himself questioning why voting or not voting in a corrupt lopsided system should provide moral or intellectual authority. "I look elsewhere for alternatives that might be of service to humanity."

In response to Paxman asking if he saw any reason for hope, Brand jumped at the question "Yeah, totally. There's going to be a revolution. It's totally going to happen," he said. "I ain't got a flicker of doubt. This is the end—it's time to wake up."

Russell Brand is my kind of leftist.  However he rejects participating in the political system by not voting -- the premise being that voting lends an air of authenticity to a system too corrupt to change with just votes -- which I do not agree with.

Early voting results locally seem to suggest that a tide may be turning in this regard... yet another contradiction here in Deep-In-The-Hearta.

I think I need to pump up the tires on my bicycle.  You know, just in case.

EV turnout in Harris County doubles

Here are the totals from Wednesday (October 23). For a listing of all early voting locations countywide and their hours of operation, click here.

[...]

So far, 27,628 people have voted in person or by mail. That compares to 11,280 through three days in 2011, 15,192 through three days in 2009, and 8,278 through three days in 2007.

Charles has covered this already, and these are significant increases in early voting numbers for a municipal election.  Both EVIP and mailed ballots are about two times what they were two years ago, and similarly above recent municipal cycles.

For an election season fairly devoid of significant developments (at least for me), this is impressive.  Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart thinks it's due to the extra attention the photo ID requirement received from the media.

"I also believe this campaign to notify people to bring their photo ID to the polls has actually raised the public awareness that there's an election."

That's as good a reason as any.  I cast my ballot Tuesday at one of the city's heaviest boxes, the Fiesta on Kirby, and there was no waiting.  Pundits will try to divine some meaning from this data, but I'm comfortable watching the trend play out a bit more before hazarding a guess.  I will say that it does not look like a red wave election at this early point.

In the meantime, do your civic duty (and make sure you have your ID on you when you do).

Update (10/25): Day 4 totals are highest yet...

The top four early-voting locations have been consistent (though swapping positions) through four days: Metropolitan Multi-Service Center on West Gray (478 in-person voters), followed by Trini Mendenhall Sosa Community Center in the Spring Branch area (325), Bayland Park Community Center in southwest Houston (321), and the Fiesta Mart at Kirby and the South Loop (301).

So far, 34,415 people have voted in person or by mail. That compares to 14,641 through four days in 2011, 18,578 through four days in 2009, and 11,206 through four days in 2007.

No Joel Burns in the race to replace Wendy Davis

Fort Worth council member Joel Burns said today he won’t try to replace Wendy Davis in the Texas Senate.

“The mere prospect of serving in the Texas Senate is an incredible honor. And I am humbled that so many of you have entertained the prospect with me,” Burns said in a letter to supporters. “But in evaluating what I want to do next, I have come to the realization that I have the job I want — to serve the people of Fort Worth and Council District 9.”

Burns had been considered a top contender to replace Davis on the Democratic ticket. The open seat has already attracted several GOP contenders.

This is unfortunate, because the odds were long enough for Dems to hold the seat with the man who replaced Wendy Davis on Fort Worth city council choosing to follow her again. The Texas Senate's Republicans would hold* be one vote shy of a two-thirds majority in that chamber if they can capture SD-10.

Now Democrats must find a strong candidate or risk losing the seat. The Fort Worth-based district leans Republican.

“Some decisions are being made and we will have a strong candidate in the Senate District 10 race,” said Democratic strategist Matt Angle, who in 2008 helped recruit Davis for the seat.

I'm sure Angle will keep us informed as soon as he fleshes things out.  He's the kingmaker -- and queenmaker -- for the Texas Democratic Party at this point.

*Update: Texpate corrects my math in the comments.

Cornyn Tweets a little bigotry, draws a Latina challenger

Big John does the wrong thing on the wrong day.

Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn is defending a social media post about President Obama's health care program that's drawing calls of racism and insensitivity:

"POTUS sez you can get O-care questions answered in 150 different languages - is English one of them?" 

Cornyn's press office defends this post as a legitimate policy question, but two Texas political experts say it is not.

"There are a lot of smart, useful questions that could be asked about the health care program. This is not one of them," said Cal Jillson, an SMU political science professor. "This is snide and demeaning. There's no reason for it."

No policy reason, maybe, but Jillson said there is a political reason.

"He's talking to the tea party,” Jillson said.

Never a good day to Tweet that out, but particularly not a good day to do so on the day you get a primary challenge from a Houston immigration attorney named Linda Vega.

During a Tuesday announcement five months ahead of the March primaries, Vega said she will push for limited government and the fight against excessive government spending.

“Washington, D.C., needs a red-state model on education and economic growth, that of low taxes and pro-business,” she said.

And she said there are "politicians from our own state who feel so entitled to their political position that one week they tell you they are for something, but the following week they are against the same thing they previously supported."

It sounds to me as if she slots in to his left, and not his right.

Her practice is focused on immigration and labor law, according to a biography on her campaign website. Vega is also a founding member of Latinos Ready to Vote, a conservative political advocacy group that promotes voter registration and participation among Latinos.

Vega describes herself as supportive of immigration reform but warns against a system that penalizes businesses.

"In Texas, we believe that the power comes from the individual, from hard work and the private sector," Vega said. "Small businesses are often the first start to the road of prosperity for many immigrants who come here in search of the American dream."

In her announcement, Vega said she admires Gov. Rick Perry. She has also previously lent her support to Attorney General Greg Abbott in his bid for governor, calling his outreach to the Latino community “positive conservatism.”

Frankly she would have made bigger news if she followed Judge Carlo Key's lead.  I'm not sure if Vega alone has what it takes to knock off Senator Box Turtle.  If a right-winger joins the fray then I think he stands a good chance of being pushed into a runoff.

If he ignores Vega, refuses to debate, Tweets out some more racism, then we might have something to talk about while we wait for a Democrat to decide to run.

Update: Big Jolly likes Vega's bid.  I still can't discern if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but I do enjoy the way he cracks on "Cardboard" Cornyn.

What the problems really are

Like Greg, I have some election-related things to do that will preclude both the advocacy and the acidity of the blogging here for a few days.  I'll be dumping some links in (because I'll still have time to read), but alas, you'll have to draw your own conclusions.  Mostly.

How Obamacare Will Save The Federal Government $190 Billion

The only presidents who have reduced the debt in the past 68 years all happened to be Democrats, and they worked mostly with Democratic Congresses.  If the Tea Party were really concerned about deficits, they wouldn't be voting for Republicans.

Their complaints aren't actually about debt or deficits, as we all know.  We don't have a spending problem.  America is not going broke.

We're being robbed.

If Corporate Profits Are at an All-Time High, Why Are Corporate Taxes Near a 60-Year Low?

Business profits are escaping U.S. corporate income taxes in three big ways. First, business is literally moving away from the U.S., as multinational companies have expanded abroad. Second, large companies are wise to the tricks they can use to move income through foreign subsidiaries that avoid America's high statutory rate. Third, smaller companies are finding ways to avoid corporate taxes, altogether.

Tied together, right before our eyes, is the concern Americans -- but not Congress -- have about both jobs and deficits.  And if Republicans wanted to cut "entitlements" (sic), then they could make those same corporate buddies give everybody at the bottom a raise.

Half of Fast Food Workers Need Public Aid

Minimum Wage: Lowest in 50 Years

Paying working folks a livable wage helps everyone, but it's been nine years -- and nine Congressional pay raises -- since the minimum wage was last increased.

Thankfully, people are starting to wake up to the fact that the Congress is the problem.