An H-Town Roundup

-- The Chron put their endorsement in the SD-6 special election behind their new paywall. (Psst: it's "pick one of Garcia or Alvarado".) No, I am not willing to pay to read that.

-- Get your flu shot.

This influenza season is shaping up to be one of the earliest and worst in years, with the flu-sick and those with respiratory illnesses that masquerade as influenza clogging Houston-area clinics, emergency rooms and doctor's offices.

According to local health officials, most of those who have become ill did not get the flu vaccine.

Get your flu shot. Don't be all Alex Jones about it, either.

-- Gasoline prices will be back up to four bucks a gallon sooner than you think.

The fuel price forecasting website says Houston area gas should crest between $3.85 and $4.15 a gallon sometime this spring. Patrick DeHaan is a senior petroleum analyst with Gas Buddy.

“Prices generally will start a bit sluggish this year, prices moving up in January and February just slightly, and then the accelerator gets hit in March, and that lasts for about a month or so.”

DeHaan says the wild card will be refinery performance.

“In the past year, a major refinery in Houston, the Motiva refinery, opened a 300,000 barrel a day expansion. That expansion had to be closed down again, and that certainly resulted in some upward pressure at the pump.”

The Motiva refinery — located 90 miles east of Houston in Port Arthur — was forced to shut down in June due to severe chemical corrosion, just weeks after the completion of a five year expansion project.

I have a second cousin working at that refinery as a contractor, and they have had him onsite seven days a week for twelve hours a day for the past few months. Motiva -- a joint venture with Shell and Saudi Aramco -- has been furiously trying to get online for six months now. Just this past weekend they tried and failed once more. This refinery -- along with at least two others in Port Arthur -- is scheduled to receive and process some of what gets delivered via Keystone XL.

Since the tars sands oil's refined petroleum products will mostly be sold on the global market, it's no wonder we won't see any gas price relief locally. But we will get to breathe all of that pollution.

What a bargain!

-- Here's your guide to the Houston Marathon this weekend. The sponsors are Chevron and Aramco. Don't breathe too deeply, runners. Update: it is possible that the weather might cancel the event for the first time in its history.

Today's opening of the legislative session in Austin

That's three posts in a row on SD-6, so let's talk about something else.

Before today's inaugural session, there was good news...

... State Comptroller Susan Combs (told) lawmakers they've got billions of additional dollars at their disposal.

"Robust revenue collections driven forward by a recovering Texas economy led by sales taxes will result in a budget surplus," Combs said, projecting new revenue of $96.2 billion.

And not-so-good news...

But after paying leftover bills from the current biennium and stuffing $3.6 billion in the "Rainy Day" fund, the balance left for distribution is likely to leave many disappointed, especially advocates for Texas public schools.

"We are not going to see the restoration of the $4 billion to $5 billion cut during the 2011 session," Rice University Political Science chair Mark Jones said.

Indeed, Charles made this salient point this morning about the Comptroller of Public Accounts' underestimate.

This is all well and good, but the bottom line of Combs’ misfire is that the Lege cut billions of dollars from the budget that ultimately didn’t need to be cut. We may be able to do something good with this extra money now, but we can’t go back two years and un-fire all those people who lost their jobs as a result of the Republicans’ budgetary chainsaw massacre. We can’t go back and un-shortchange all the school districts and students that took those cuts right where it hurts. It’s all so much bloodstained water beneath the bridge.

And sure enough, the governor followed through on a tax cut mantra in his welcome to newly-sworn-in legislators later in the day.

Rick Perry was defiant as ever this afternoon at the Capitol. The governor sketched out his priorities for the legislative session in a brief speech to the Texas Senate on the Legislature’s opening day and made clear his approach this session will look very familiar. If you were hoping that the state’s improved budget outlook might lead to a slight increase in spending on items like schools and health care, Perry intimated this afternoon that those items aren’t high on his priority list.

After welcoming special guest Rick Santorum—who was sitting among the senators’ family and friends in the back of the chamber—Perry said the state’s budget surplus, announced yesterday by Comptroller Susan Combs, is proof that “we put Texas on the right path.” And lawmakers need to resist the urge to spend. “There are interest groups in the state who view Monday’s revenue estimate as ringing the dinner bell.”

At that, a young woman lost consciousness, as Dave Mann at the Texas Observer observed.

Moments before Perry said those words, a young Senate staffer standing in the back of the chamber—standing right behind me, actually—fainted. She collapsed on to me and Reuters correspondent Corrie MacLaggan. The young woman’s head hit the floor hard, and she lay motionless for what seemed an eternity, though it was probably only 15-20 seconds. It was a scary moment.

The commotion stopped Perry’s speech, and Sens. Bob Deuell and Donna Campbell, both of whom are doctors, rushed to the woman’s aid. She soon regained consciousness and was helped into a side room. She appeared OK. I hope she is OK. Perry, after seeing the woman helped shakily off the floor, quipped, “I haven’t had that effect on someone in a long time.” Then he added that talk of higher taxes can literally cause “people to swoon.”

Ha. Ha. Ha. What a douchebag we have as governor.

We can console ourselves with the hope that since the calendar reads January of 2013, he's not -- at this time -- capable of being as large a douchebag as the Attorney General of Texas (or whoever writes his legal briefs). Or even, for that matter, as masterful at douchebaggery as the new US Senator from Texas.

Update: Utter dumbass, though? Hell to the yes.

"I will suggest to you that you can ride into infamy with the decisions that you will make." -- Gov. Rick Perry, comparing lawmakers of the 83rd Legislature to the doomed defenders of the Alamo at a speech (Tuesday morning) to the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

Webster's defines infamy as "an extreme and publicly known criminal or evil act." The word is best connected with FDR's description of the bombing of Pearl Harbor. And now it's a good summing up of what at least a few Texans might expect from their elected representatives over the next few months.

But dumbass over douchebag is small consolation. Tiny, actually. Miniscule, in fact.

At least we can hope that the Lege isn't capable of as much damage as two years ago. After reading this about the Republicans, though, I have to be skeptical. Thank goodness for Wendy Davis and Abel Herrero and Gene Wu and Harold Dutton and Senfronia Thompson and most of the other Dems. They'll make the next five months tolerable.

Hopefully.

Update: Eye on Williamson has the short and sweet summary. 

Sylvia Garcia punching down

Sylvia Garcia recently sent out this mail piece to SD-6 residents and voters, and earlier today Houston city councilman James Rodriguez -- a supporter of Carol Alvarado's campaign -- responded to it.

I am disappointed that Sylvia Garcia has decided to take her campaign in a negative direction by questioning Carol Alvarado’s support for an underpass at Harrisburg Boulevard...

At last night’s Senate District 6 Candidates Forum, Ms. Garcia went on to say that “some of the local representatives did not have the guts to stand” with the community in supporting an underpass.

Let me set the record straight.  In a letter dated July 30, 2008 to then-Metro CEO Frank Wilson, Ms. Garcia said “I support the concept of a bridge or underpass at the Union Pacific grade crossing,” on Harrisburg Boulevard. 

Let me further set the record straight.  Several elected officials including myself, Mayor Annise Parker, and Council Members Melissa Noriega and Ed Gonzalez worked with the community to find  the funding to pay for the underpass.  Ms. Garcia never attended any of the meetings on seeking a solution.  In fact, at a community forum in February of 2009, Ms. Garcia was asked if she would contribute to the funding of the underpass from her Precinct 2 Commissioner’s Road and Bridge Fund.  She declined.

Thanks to the Mayor’s leadership and the leadership of my colleagues, we were able to secure funding for the underpass including $10 million in Capital Improvement Plan dollars from District I.

Carol Alvarado worked with the community and made sure Metro heard their concerns.  Ms. Garcia supported the concept of a bridge, was a no-show during this entire process and for her to make this a campaign issue is a disservice to the voters of Senate District 6.

Most of my blogging compadres are trying to avoid even looking at this sort of thing, much less write about it, and truthfully I don't blame them for taking that course.

I don't know why Garcia -- with a million bucks to spend and hundreds of volunteers who have already canvassed the senate district's neighborhoods several times -- feels the need to punch below her weight class like this. It's the second time she has done so (that I am aware of) and both times the Alvarado campaign punched her back, hard.

If Garcia ultimately wins the seat, Alvarado is going to be both her constituent and colleague in the Texas House. They'll have to work together on a variety of issues for the district. Ad hominem attacks between two Democrats in a special election like this are unseemly and unnecessary... unless there's something personal between the two women that hasn't been aired publicly. And frankly, I don't think anybody wants to hear them air their grievances.

I think this is one instance where attacks ads aren't going to help the attacker. I'd like to believe that, anyway. I'd also like to see a cleaner race from here on. There are plenty of issues that need attacking, so I hope the two front-runners for SD-6 focus on those, and not some petty personal dispute.

Update: Stace Medellin, better-connected than me, expands and clarifies.

SD-6 developments (that mention Keystone XL)

The Chron catches up with the SD-6 special, just in time for early voting (beginning tomorrow).

With eight candidates in the race in an overwhelmingly Democratic district that includes Houston's East End, the race is likely to come down to a battle between two prominent Democrats, state Rep. Carol Alvarado, whose House district overlaps much of the Senate district, and former Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia.

Also running are R.W. Bray, the Republican candidate who lost to Gallegos last fall; Democrats Susan Delgado, Joaquin Martinez and Rodolfo "Rudy" Reyes; Republican Dorothy Olmos; and Green Party candidate Maria Selva.

If a runoff is needed - and with so many candidates, one is likely - it will be held between Feb. 23 and March 9, with Gov. Rick Perry scheduling the exact date. 

Apparently Reyes is a Democrat after all, despite keeping that a secret on both his filing application and his website. The Chron's teaser headline on their home page prominently notes Delgado's former occupation. That really is cheesy of the newspaper of record. And judging by the posts from the Khronically Konservative Komment brigade, they took the bait the Chronic was chumming.

Mark Jones at Rice weighed in with his usual nothing.

The race features "a modest activist-versus-establishment dynamic, with activists leaning toward Garcia and the establishment toward Alvarado," said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. "The pattern is not, however, clear-cut, with many establishment Democrats supporting Garcia and many activists backing Alvarado." 

Thanks for clearing that up. The only real news in this entire article is this:

Among the state's 31 senate districts, this predominantly Hispanic district ranks last in the number of registered voters (284,000) and in 2012 voter turnout (138,000). Jones estimates that fewer than 1 in 10 registered voters and 1 in 25 district residents will cast a ballot.

So if Jones is correct, 28,400 +/- votes in total will decide the primary. Garcia, the presumptive front-runner, declared early on her intention to avoid a runoff; she said as much at the bloggers' luncheon she hosted a few weeks ago. So, by extrapolating... she needs 14,201 votes to accomplish that. (See, I can do math.)

She has certainly put a lot of feet in the street since this all started in early December, so that could happen. I just don't think it will. The other four Dems, the Green, and the two Republicans -- one of which got 29% two months ago against Gallegos -- only need to get the same 50% +1 to deny Garcia the outright victory. Twenty-nine percent has been the conservative base vote in the district for the past two cycles in which Gallegos stood for re-election. 2008 and 2012 were both high Democratic turnout years. Again, using Jones' projection... that works out to 8,236 Republican votes.

These SWAGs mean that Garcia needs to earn 14,201 of the remaining 20,164 (28,400 - 8,236) or 70.42%. In competition with five other Democrats/liberals/progressives.

I'm still betting the runoff is going to be between Garcia and Bray.

Selva, for her part, will make Keystone XL a campaign issue. From yesterday's press release...

The Keystone XL Pipeline public-relations campaign is sheer misinformation. Keystone XL proponents claim it will lower gasoline prices. In fact, its economic model will hike Canadian oil prices at the expense of American gasoline consumers. Anthony Swift, author of the Natural Resources Defense Council report (http://www.nrdc.org/energy/files/kxlsecurity.pdf), states that when TransCanada proposed the Keystone pipeline, they set it up to increase oil prices in the United States, thereby increasing profit for Canadian producers when they send their product to the USA. The pipeline would take Canadian oil normally destined for Midwest refineries—which produce gasoline for US use—and instead send it to Gulf Coast refineries for eventual export since it yields more profits abroad.

 I support energy independence for the USA. We will not achieve it by building pipelines that offer us nothing but risk while we route North American oil to overseas markets. There is no employment benefit for Houston in the Keystone pipeline. Supporters refer the the pipeline as a potential ‘job creator.’ The glowing job projections for the pipeline are overblown. The Cornell University Global Labor Institute studied the issue, and they concluded, “…the job estimates put forward by TransCanada are unsubstantiated and the project will not only create fewer jobs than industry states, but that the project could actually kill more jobs than it creates.” 

About the same time that was hitting inboxes, the Tar Sands Blockade protest at the Houston offices of TransCanada was under way.

Here's the live blogging from yesterday, including video and pictures from other direct actions around the country.

You probably won't see much corporate media coverage of the protests against KXL. The HouChron can barely be bothered to cover the special election, so don't expect their corporate overlords to do much more than this. This report from the NYT was the welcome and notable exception.

The development of Alberta’s oil sands has increased levels of cancer-causing compounds in surrounding lakes well beyond natural levels, Canadian researchers reported in a study released on Monday. And they said the contamination covered a wider area than had previously been believed.

For the study, financed by the Canadian government, the researchers set out to develop a historical record of the contamination, analyzing sediment dating back about 50 years from six small and shallow lakes north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, the center of the oil sands industry. Layers of the sediment were tested for deposits of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or PAHs, groups of chemicals associated with oil that in many cases have been found to cause cancer in humans after long-term exposure.

We will just have to wait and see if the issue resonates with the voters in SD-6.

Previous posts on the special election:

Alvarado declares for SD-6

Sylvia Garcia jumps in 

No Noriega(s) for SD-6 *with updates

Governor finally calls SD-6 special election 

Eight for SD-6 

Update: Kuffner adds some depth.

Update (1/13): "While solidarity actions were happening at the offices of TransCanada and its investors and contractors around the country, over a hundred blockaders took over the lobbies of two different TransCanada offices in Houston."