Responses from Evan Smith and Miya Shay

I posted about the Texas Tribune's wacky poll last week, and had a conversation with Tribune CEO Evan Smith yesterday afternoon prompted by it.

First, a correction: Farouk Shami was not included in their list of Democratic gubernatorial candidates, as I wrote. The candidates they DID poll included Kinky Friedman, Tom Schieffer, Felix Alvarado, Mark Thompson (who withdrew from the race and endorsed Hank Gilbert as the poll was concluding) and Ronnie Earle, who has still not declared for it.

Smith indicated to me that he retains confidence in the polling outfit, in fact that they will do additional polling for the Tribune in 2010. He also trusts the methodology of polling via internet, as compared for example to polling via telephone. He was quick to say that he did not trust it more, just that it was worthy of his trust. Here is an excerpt containing the Trib's explanation:

There is a lot of interest in our use of the internet for polling. There is a deep discussion of our method in the attached methodology section, and similar discussions for all the polls in the polling section at the Texas Politics website. For those who want to dig still deeper into the underlying statistical methods, the founder of the polling firm we use, Doug Rivers, has been a central figure in developing the matched random sampling methods for use over the internet, and weighed in on some of the issues being discussed in this post at Pollster.com in September. If you’re interested, you can trace the discussion backward and forward from this post, and get a detailed explanation of why the matched random sampling method is different from opt-in polls.

Smith also said, without my having to ask, that leaving Gilbert off the poll was "a f***up". He's certainly right about that.

And he is still confident in the poll's results, despite having instructed the pollsters to go back and re-poll the 266 respondents who indicated they would 'definitely' or 'probably' be voting in the Democratic primary to ask them if they would vote for Gilbert.

I am not. There is no alternate reality in which Mark Thompson could have gotten ten times the number of supporters than Gilbert did. At best, the poll's result had been compromised by the omission-and-then-late-addition of Gilbert's name. As well, including Farouk Shami as a polling option would have been as reasonable as including Ronnie Earle. With all of those errors and omissions, and especially since Thompson has now withdrawn (he was reported to be considering it even as the poll was concluding), I find the Democratic portion of the Texas Tribune's poll to be simply invalid.

My last question for Smith was relative to Rick Perry's twelve-point lead over Kay Bailey, and I offered a premise (which Smith did not necessarily agree with): could his poll's higher numbers for the governor possibly reflect a coalescing of the conservative base specifically in reaction to October's news surrounding the Todd Willingham case? Smith would not grant that but did note that Perry is very probably stronger with the prototypical GOP primary voter. I agree with that much.

The Trib won't conduct another poll until after the first of the year, according to Smith, so my humble O is that we will have to look elsewhere for some indications about how the governor's race is shaping up.

And Miya Shay posted the following to me at my Facebook wall in response to this post:

Hey Perry, I read your blog about my blog..Thanks for commenting! I just wanted you to know that i wasn't impressed or complimenting Kaufman. If you read the blog, I was simply stating a fact that her tactic may be effective. It doesn't mean I support it or oppose it.. I am just being realistic. thanks

Sorry, Miya. That won't wash.

Not too long ago (perhaps before you were born, I don't know) the media's role was that of watchdog for the public against the powerful. The media won Pulitzers for that work when they did it relentlessly and well. When elected officials breach their public trust and attempt to corrupt the process -- in fact the free choice -- of the voters then it is, or used to be, the media's job to call them out about it. Not simply observe it, and certainly not to marvel at it.

Maybe some other member of the local media will choose that role, since you appear unwilling to take it on.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance hopes everyone had a happy Election Day last week, and is already looking forward to the next one. Here are this week's highlights.

TXsharon continues to report from a backyard in the Barnett Shale. Despite all the local and national press on drilling related toxins, carcinogens and neurotoxins in our air, Aruba Petroleum Refuses a Simple Step to Improve Barnett Shale Air and thereby recklessly and willfully endangers public health and safety. Read it on Bluedaze: DRILLING REFORM FOR TEXAS.

refinish69 announces his endorsement for the Democratic nominee for Texas governor at Doing My Part For The Left. The progressive choice has to be Hank Gilbert with his policy issues and especially his strong stance on GLBT issues. Hank Gilbert for Texas Governor was the only choice refinish69 could make.

Justin at Asian American Action Fund Blog has a thorough take on the results of election day in Houston.

The Texas Cloverleaf provides an election night roundup of some of D-FW's races you never heard of, and some national ones you have.

If you dislike Rep. Dennis Kucinich as much as Mayor McSleaze, there's probably something right with you.

quizas of South Texas Chisme notes that Galveston medical facilities are among those not notifying about rules for the poor, while CouldBeTrue notes South Texas Democrats join Republicans in shafting poor women. Shame on them.

BossKitty at TruthHugger Let me "dis" the local Austin TV news media who gets around to breaking the health care reform bill news TWO and a half hours later. Hooray for the House, but Austin just lives in a bubble.

Over at BlueBloggin, nytexan takes a long look at another disgusting practice of our medical insurance industry: We Have One Twisted Health System, Living Organ Donors Beware. The organ donor's family is never charged for donating. The family is charged for the cost of all final efforts to save your life, and those costs are sometimes misinterpreted as costs related to organ donation. Surprise for organ donors: unexpected medical bills. An Austin man who gave a kidney to co-worker is one of many who have faced health complications and billing problems.

Bay Area Houston says Hispanics, the largest voting block in Texas, are not voting.

WhosPlayin learned of an illegal meeting of Lewisville ISD trustees this past Thursday and Friday, and has video of trustees mentioning this blogger when discussing whether to implement video recording of trustee meetings.

Vince at Capitol Annex takes a look at an interesting story about Judge Sharon Keller that was eclipsed by the tragedy at Fort Hood.

Off the Kuff has six questions for the runoffs in Houston.

Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman toes the ethical line with her active promotion of an assistant for her job, and the local media thinks that's just fine. Get the details in PDiddie's Brains and Eggs.

At TexasKaos, Libby Shaw has news for John Cornyn and Pete Sessions about the Republican Resurgence. As she notes:

I wouldn't gloat too much, boys. Your job in Washington just got a lot harder. Meanwhile back here at home -- in case you boys forgot that Houston is the largest city in Texas -- three progressive Democrats and one Republican ran for mayor. The Republican dude and the old white guy with boatloads of bucks lost. The run-off race is between a gay woman and an African American male.

See the rest here: I have news for John Cornyn and Pete Sessions

WCNews at Eye On Williamson reports on the local toll authority's latest shenanigans: CTRMA to jack up tolls on 183-A, add automatic annual increases.

Neil at Texas Liberal bought Thanksgiving cards drawn by a young person with cancer who is being treated at Houston's M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. The design Neil bought is both bleak and hopeful.

There was much rejoicing this week at Texas Vox and among the environmental community at large when it was announced that Dr. Al Armendariz was named new Region 6 Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. A Texas EPA administrator that "embodies the "Principles for Environmental Leadership and Real Change"? You better believe it.

FOX News election night coverage

Sunday Funnies

Kaufman's apprentice gets boost for Clerk

I speculated previously about two people working for Beverly Kaufman who might be line up to run for her position in 2010 but Miya Shay found the true teacher's pet:

When (Kaufman) announced her retirement, I assumed there would be a jockeying of candidates from both Democrats and Republicans. On the Dem side, several names have been bantered about, including Sue Schechter. On the Republican side, while there have been talk of several semi-notables, the main guy is shaping up to be Kevin Mauzy. Who is he? Mauzy has been Kaufman's chief deputy for years, and Kaufman quickly endorsed him as HER choice.

As previously blogged, I spent many late election evenings in the Harris County Clerk's ballot cave over the past couple of years, and not only did I never meet Mauzy, I never even heard of him before this. But let's allow Miya to continue ...

Yesterday, while covering Prof. Barton Smith's bi-annual chat about the Houston economy, I ran into Kaufman and Mauzy at the luncheon.

"Are you trying to get Mauzy in front of the TV cameras so he'll have an advantage?" I asked.

"Isn't it obvious what I'm trying to do?" Kaufman answered with a big grin. "It's called earned media, it's very important."

We chatted a bit more about Kaufman's plan. Basically, during the run-up to the November election, she tried to hand over every on camera media request to Mauzy. she (sic) plans to continue doing that as we get closer to the December run-off. The idea is to give Mauzy free TV exposure, and valuable name ID. In addition, since most of the questions asked by the media are mundane, uncontroversial clerk stuff, it's easy to sound like you know what's going on.

Basically, Kaufman's trying to give Mauzy the "air of incumbency" without being an incumbent or an elected official. This is not illegal, and it just might work. Think about every media outlet that will need an interview or a quote about voter turnout or polling hours between now and next March. If Mauzy's the one giving the information, then that's an advantage his opponents can't buy. It will help stave off Republican contenders, and force Democratic challengers into an even more uphill battle.

Let's pause for a moment here.

The Harris County Clerk, the person responsible for administering elections in the nation's third most populous county, is -- once again -- using her office to influence voter opinion to her choice, this time for the person who would succeed her. And Shay, a hard-working member of the ABC affiliate in Houston covering the political beat, is favorably impressed by this?

If you wanted an example of political corruption enabled by a compliant corporate media, you would be hard-pressed to find a better one.

Read the comments and you'll note that a GOP precinct chair isn't too fond of the idea, either. Then again Mr. Large has been in the news over his, ah, issues with other Republican candidates also.

Bachmann Teabagger Overdrive

Brad Friedman (he coined the header used here) and Richard Blair link to the photo at yesterday's latest protest against health care, where this poster appeared ...



The red lettering in the photo reads: "National Socialist Health Care: Dachau, Germany – 1945". Pasted over a stack of concentration camp corpses.

House Republican leadership in attendance at the rally where this poster was displayed, near the front and center of the stage, included John Boehner -- who mistook the Declaration of Independence for the Constitution -- and Eric Cantor, who also happens to be Jewish.

How much is too much?

That wacky Texas Tribune poll

The one with Rick Perry ahead of Kay Bailey 42-30? Not just obviously flawed, not simply bogus, but a whiff of deception on the part of the Texas political sphere's shiny new model.

First of all, Polling Point simply doesn't have the chops to to perform this research. They are a sign-up-and-vote-online outfit. Even Zogby has more credibility. If the Tribbers were going to spend tens of thousands of their dollars on a poll, they should have picked one with a better methodology, or at least a more visible reputation.

Secondly, while PP had Ronnie Earle and Farouk Shami as Democratic choices for governor -- officially neither one is in the race, until Tuesday that is for Shami -- Hank Gilbert was not, at least for most of the "polling period". That's just incompetent. Gilbert has had ten times the online and offline visibility of both Earle and Shami combined. Gilbert has been on a statewide ballot before, in fact was the state's second-highest Democratic vote collector in 2006.

Someone at the Tribune must have known all this, and just flat-out blew it. Or God forbid, something worse.

Third, Wayne Slater and Glenn Smith and even Paul Burka have all questioned the poll's veracity. Burka's slow, but when even he gets it...

Fourth, Evan Smith is purportedly aggressively defensive about the poll. Protests and methinking and all that.

So with that many black marks against it, why run with it (besides the obvious, which is that they spent thousands of dollars on it)?

It's a shame the Texas Tribune opened with such a stinkbomb. They need to hold themselves to a higher standard than this going forward. If it's accurate that some of those folks writing over there are pulling down 90K, they suddenly have a lot farther distance to go to earn it.

RG Ratcliffe excerpts Kay Bailey's response. This is probably the last time I will ever agree with her.

Ed. note: The Texas Tribune poll did not include Shami as a candidate. I regret the error.