Lampson, Skelly foundering

In a tidal-change election year, some things will sadly remain the same:

U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, D-Stafford, trailed Republican challenger Pete Olson by 17 percentage points early last week, according to the survey by Zogby International. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

U.S. Rep. John Culberson, R-Houston, led Democratic challenger Michael Skelly more modestly, by 7 percentage points, with virtually the same margin of error.

In both Republican-friendly districts, a key factor appeared to be the Democratic candidates' inability to run strong among independent voters and cut deeply into the ranks of Republican voters.

Yeah, those would certainly be among the reasons. But another one also is that both men blew off the Democratic activist base in their districts by hewing hard to the right. Their attempts to lure Republican votes cost them both badly-needed blockwalkers and phone-bankers.

For his part Lampson has strongly supported the Iraq war, changed his mind to favor offshore drilling, and has touted his Blue Doggishness and desertion of the Democratic caucus in the House of Representatives as a "centrist" position, unbeholden to Speaker Pelosi.

The Republicans called bullshit anyway of course, and Nick hasn''t been able to make his (quite good) case of representing the 22nd District effectively.

Skelly meanwhile pissed all over MoveOn when they had a rally outside Culberson's office earlier this year. He has similarly proclaimed his enthusiastic support for "driling everywhere now". He calculated this was a necessity in a district that is home to Houston's energy corridor.

That was a miscalculation, in my opinion. Very comparable, I would say, to John McLame's picking Sarah Palin as V-P: a short-term gain which turned into a 4th-quarter drag.

Whatever votes Skelly and Lampson may have picked up by pandering to the Right with their conservative positions simply wasn't worth the grassroots support it cost them. No amount of millions in TV advertising affected this simple truth.

See, Republicans may cast a ballot but they aren't doing the blockwalks and phonebanks to help get the Democratic vote out for these guys. Even in a landmark election year -- when Democrats will likely retake several Harris County executive slots and judgeships, the rising blue tide won't be enough to lift Lampson and Skelly. They tied themselves to a red anchor.

Are there just too many damned Republicans in the 22nd and 7th Districts? Yes, there are. That's the way Tom DeLay and Tom Craddick drew them, after all. That will change in 2010 with a Democratic majority in the Texas House, though.

But the impact of Democratic activists -- yes, the liberals and progressives who put out the signs and electioneer the polls and attend the rallies and work our precincts -- who are lukewarm about a Democrat who tries too hard to look like a Republican, even in a Republican-leaning district, cannot be underestimated.

We know that when the voters have a choice between a real Republican and a pretend one, they'll vote for the real one every single time.

Truthfully -- and unfortunately for Lampson and Skelly -- there's too many Blue Dogs in the Congress as it is. The good news is that those conservative Democrats will likely be marginalized after November, but they are still rogues in the party. Nancy Pelosi is at fault here for not enforcing caucus discipline; she gives them carte blanche to run off the reservation if they feel they need to, so they do. It just looks a big bunch of pandering to Republicans.

You don't see any GOP Congresspersons acting too much like Democrats, do you? They get kicked out of the Republican party for that.

The reason Congress has approval ratings in the single digits is because many Democratic voters are highly displeased with the Democrats in Congress for refusing to stand up against the abuses of power of the Bush administration, among those issues torture and wiretapping. The reticence to end the war (Lampson) and the enthusiastic endorsement by a wind energy gazillionaire of "drill baby drill" (Skelly) show up as the straws that break the blue camel's back.

In the "More and Better Democrats" math, it looks like we'll have enough after next week. Now we need to make sure that the ones that get elected are the best Democrats they can be.

Mid-Early Voting, 8-Days-from-Election-Day Wrangle

Harris County blasted past 300,000 early voters yesterday, and the entire Lone Star is fast on its way to a voter turnout record despite the best efforts of partisans like Paul Bettencourt to suppress it. Lots of good final-week election postings in this edition of the Texas Progressive Alliance Weekly Roundp-Up, compiled by Vince from Capitol Annex.

Vote this week, wherever you live. Don't wait until the last day.

The Texas Cloverleaf helps spread the truth about ACORN.

McBlogger takes a look at our own Congressman from Clear Channel, Mike McCaul, and discovers that he is indeed different.

jobsanger points out the dysfunctional aspect of this year's Republican campaign, first in Palin Disagrees With McCain, and then in Repubs Can't See The Reality.

BossKitty at TruthHugger is sad to recognize that while America's Foreign Policy Suffers - Unemployment Soars - Religion Goes Toxic, the USA's short attention span has been grabbed by personal survival and courted by political and religious philosophies.

As early voting begins, Eye On Williamson charts the early voting numbers in Williamson County. HD-52 Democratic candidate Diana Maldonado continues to rack up the endorsements and launches her latest ad, taking on the insurance companies and high homeowners insurance.

Neil at Texas Liberal posted the second part of his "Who I Would Have Supported For President" series. The latest entry covered the years 1824-1852.

Gary at Easter Lemming Liberal News is keeping the early voting info up for the voters who need it but did notice that all the PUMAs have come home to Obama.

Vince at Capitol Annex notes that the Texas Association of Business has finally pleaded guilty in connection with its 2002 violations of Texas' campaign financing laws and that state rep. John Davis (R-Clear Lake) and state Sen. Kim Brimer (R-Fort Worth) have taken big bucks from a company the TCEQ fined more than a quarter-million dollars for polluting.

CouldBeTrue from South Texas Chisme has some hints about how to get your specific sample ballot. Be prepared!

Off the Kuff analyzes the high level of early voting in Harris County so far.

XicanoPwr analyzes the GOP attack on ACORN and the disenfranchisement of thousands of voters carried out by Paul Bettencourt in Harris County.

John McCain describes the economy as a drive by shooting. The Texas Cloverleaf calls it a whack job.

North Texas Liberal reports on Sarah Palin's $150,000 shopping spree at Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue, and discusses why it could signal the end for her and John McCain's faltering campaign.

As Democrats in Harris County appear on the verge of something historic, the trends in the extraordinary early voting turnout portend the same blue surge that the rest of the country
is about to experience. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs has the deets.

refinish69 at Doing My Part For The Left wants everyone to say thanks to Barbara at Avenue Gallery- NOT!!!

nytexan at Bluebloggin points out just how much McCain and Palin are alike with their FEC violations. We've gone from 8 years of the "emperor has no clothes" to "the empress has new clothes." The GOP is priceless. Palin is following in McCain's footsteps -- what a pair of mavericks: CREW Files FEC Complaint Against Palin. And McCain and Palin apparently have an affection for Russia: McCain's New FEC Violation: Asks Russia For Campaign Money.

More Funnies (Damned Socialism edition)

EV 10/26: Red state erosion

Yes, Ohio has slipped back to blue again, but the real story is all the red states that are suddenly tossups now: Montana, Indiana, and *gasp* Georgia. IN, in fact, is lately polling pretty blue, but I just can't put it in Obama's column yet.

Democrats across the country appear poised for a landslide of historic proportions, even here in Deep-In-The-Hearta. Is it for real? We'll know in nine days.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Sunday Funnies

Democrats poised to sweep Harris

Except for county judge Ed Emmett, who appears to have redeemed himself in the eyes of Houston voters as a result of his actions during Ike, not to mention benefiting from a glowing endorsement from Bill White. But the rest of the county's Republicans are an endangered species:

Democrats have reclaimed the voting advantage they lost 14 years ago in elections for Harris County offices, according to a poll conducted for the Houston Chronicle. But Republican County Judge Ed Emmett appears to be swimming strongly against the tide.

Voters favored Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 7 percentage points in elections for county leadership jobs, except in the county judge's race, where Emmett has a 13-point lead over Democrat David Mincberg, according to the survey. Sixteen percent of the respondents were undecided or said they lean toward neither party's entry.

The number 7 also popped up specifically in the race for district attorney; Democrat C.O. Bradford ran 7 percentage points ahead of Republican Pat Lykos in the poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday as early voting began for the Nov. 4 election.

Now the caveat is that the polling outfit is Zogby, which has a poor track record of prognostication. Unless their methodology has improved I simply place only a small bit of enthusiasm in these numbers. Still ...

The pattern suggests that the Democratic identity has become more popular here in the last two years and/or that Barack Obama's lead in the national presidential race is filtering down to local elections, pollster John Zogby said.

"It's about the party, and it's about the (presidential nominee) characters," he said.

The results point to Nov. 4 becoming the first transitional election in Harris County since 1994, when Republican challengers swept Democratic administrators and judges from their jobs as the "Republican revolution" led by then-U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich captured the majority in Congress.

County leadership races on the ballot are for county judge, DA, sheriff, tax assessor-collector, county attorney and district clerk.

There were two exceptions to the local trend.

In the 40 judicial races on the ballot, voters favored Democratic challengers over Republican incumbents by 3.7 percentage points. The finding puts the party's judgeship slates in a statistical tie, because the gap is within the poll's margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

Now that's significant, because as the story notes ...

Most Republican judges seeking re-election have campaigned as a group, saying they protect people and property through their work in the criminal and civil courts. Democratic candidates for court benches mainly have campaigned individually or as part of the overall Democratic ticket.

That's what we're seeing in the political advertising here. Only the Texas Supreme Court Republicans are running individual ads -- as the Democrats do so collectively -- while the Democratic county judicials have ads for themselves all over cable TV. The Texas Democratic Party is spending $800,000 in the television ad campaign to capture a seat or three on the TSC.

In county leadership races and specifically in the race for district attorney, the Democratic contenders had robust leads over their Republican opponents among moderate voters and even got 20 percent or more from conservatives, according to the survey.

This year has been troubling for Republicans on the local scene. The campaign season has included the resignation of Republican District Attorney Chuck Rosenthal and controversies about the actions of Sheriff Tommy Thomas and Commissioner Jerry Eversole.

The poll assumes the black and Hispanic populations each will contribute 20 percent of the countywide vote.

Some local experts predict a higher turnout by blacks, citing excitement about Obama's candidacy. They also say Hispanic turnout could be lower than 20 percent, because while the number of Hispanic registered voters keeps climbing, they probably have never voted at that level countywide.

A combined minority turnout above 40 percent could add to the advantage for local Democratic contenders. Eight-five percent of blacks, 60 percent of Asian-Americans, 54 percent of Hispanics and 28 percent of non-Hispanic whites in the survey said they favor Democrats in county leadership elections.

Turnout in Harris, as many have noted, is through the roof. Just south of 300,000 people have cast a ballot so far, and there's still a final week of early voting to go.

Things are looking awfully good, but there's still more work to be done if you're a grassroots activist. Keep making those phone calls and walking those blocks, and let's see if we can't make anothe hurricane in Houston land hard.

Palin "going rogue", a "diva" -- according to McCain campaign

Rogue elephants I've heard of; rogue divas sounds like hyperbole. Too bad it's a description coming from some of her own people:

Several McCain advisers have suggested to CNN that they have become increasingly frustrated with what one aide described as Palin "going rogue."...

McCain sources say Palin has gone off-message several times, and they privately wonder whether the incidents were deliberate. They cited an instance in which she labeled robocalls -- recorded messages often used to attack a candidate's opponent -- "irritating" even as the campaign defended their use. Also, they pointed to her telling reporters she disagreed with the campaign's decision to pull out of Michigan.

A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

"Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom."

Whoa.

No "relationships of trust with any of her family"? That's a pretty cold shot. And do divas actually only "trust only unto themselves"? Is that the same thing as trusting only themselves? I don't read the Bible so I don't really dig the emphasis that the word 'unto' is intended to convey.

These people are so over...

A furious, old, self-important reformist poseur stuck in the previous century versus a young, ambitious, fundamentalist airhead "rogue" "diva" ... who would have guessed a year-and-a-half ago that the wrestling match for the soul of a dying and discredited political party would come down to this?

And can you believe people are stupid enough to stand in line for hours just to vote for these assholes? That the numbers indicate that a majority of those of us in Harris County now know better only makes us "out of step with the rest of Texas".

Thank God at last for that.