Last night's results, tonight's debate

Vox has the most straightforward report on last night's returns: Trump wins Kentucky and Louisiana, Cruz wins Maine and Kansas.  Sanders wins Nebraska and Kansas, Clinton wins Louisiana.  Rubio and Kasich falter everywhere, and Trump calls on Rubio to drop out.

“Marco had a very, very bad night. I would call for him to drop out,” Trump said at an event in West Palm Beach, Florida. 

He went on: “I would love to be able to take on Ted one on one. That would be so much fun, because Ted can't win New York, he can't win New Jersey, he can't win Pennsylvania, he can't win California. I want Ted one on one, OK?"

Rubio is closing on Trump in Florida, which votes on March 15, so that's not going to happen unless he loses to Drumpf in his home state (and then Rubio will quit the next day).  There will be one more GOP debate between now and then, on March 10 in Miami.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will debate this evening in Flint, MI and appear at a town hall forum tomorrow night hosted by Fox.  Expect the former secretary of state to be asked questions about Libya and about her e-mails.  Michigan (and Mississippi) vote on Tuesday, March 8 and Clinton still has a big lead in the polls.  On Thursday Wednesday March 9, she and Bernie will debate again, also in Miami.

Next week's events -- tonight through next Thursday evening -- will culminate what has been a furious month in the two leagues' championship semifinals.  In nine days, we'll know whether we have a Clinton-Trump fall classic, or something else.

In other developments ... Godwin's Law no longer applies.

Donald Trump makes members of his Orlando crowd raise their right hands and swear to vote in the primary. pic.twitter.com/EVenRilJrV

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) March 5, 2016

Trump supporters have also been read quotes from Adolph Hitler, and thought they were Trump's words.  We've crossed the Rubicon, y'all.

More Democratic voters seem to be looking for the exits.  Hillarians still seem confused as to why, and they're lashing out again at Sandernistas.  The fault lines are cracking further open, even as some former Democrats move over to Trump.

For these reasons, it’s clear that progressives should be wary of arguments that recessions or financial crises lead to opportunities for progressive policymaking. Rather, they foster exactly the sort of divisiveness that strengthens right-wing movements, at least for whites. For all the talk of “the working class” supporting Trump, few pundits have noted that the working class is increasingly diverse. The idea that economic peril alone creates Trump support is belied by the fact that working-class people of color aren’t flocking to Trump. The reason so many liberal and moderate whites are flocking toward Trump is simple: racism.

"Working class", indeed, is not a racial demographic.  It is in fact exactly what socialism in historical context is all about.  But that won't stop Clinton's people from calling Sanders' folks racist.

Sunday Funnies

Is Democratic turnout up or down?

Charles Kuffner has the numbers that indicate local turnout is just fine in historical context, even if the 2016 Blue Team scoreboard is about half the Republicans'.  In the national analysis, a few poli-sci profs have been quoted in recent days as saying there's nothing for Dems to worry about.  Two links for your deeper dive, one from NPR and one from AMERICAblog, with the abridged version being "competitive primaries increase participation and uncompetitive ones don't'.  One pull-quote:

These circumstances tell us a lot about why turnout is what it is in the parties’ respective primaries, but they tell us very, very little about what voter turnout will look like in a Trump/Clinton general election. A more telling predictor is the fact that the general election is likely to be polarized to epic proportions, which on balance has been shown to increase turnout, among other forms of political participation. The causal story for this jives with everything we know about rational political behavior: When voters perceive a greater difference between two candidates, there are greater benefits and costs associated with the outcome of the election. This increases the incentive to cast a ballot for one candidate or the other.

That's all reasonable enough.  I still contend that a universe of Americans where about half the population is not registered to vote, and the other half don't show up at the polls on a regular basis isn't very healthy for democracy, but none of the system's players really care about that or intend to do anything about it.

The duopoly and its enablers in the corporate media would rather see everyone quarreling over the personalities involved; not so much the actual policies.  That is, until they tire of that.

Markos “Kos” Moulitsas, founder of the Daily Kos, a popular liberal web site, wrote a blogpost on Friday asking the site’s community of writers, readers and commenters to begin moderating their criticism of Clinton starting on March 15, in the likely event that Clinton solidifies her hold on the nomination with additional primary wins. 

If Sanders does not turn the tide, Moulitsas wrote, “then on March 15 this site officially transitions to General Election footing. That means, we will focus our attention not just on Donald Trump or his rivals, but also on the Senate, the House, and state-level races.” 

Markos tipped this shot across the bow earlier in the week when he called people who suggested that Hillary was winning primaries in states she would lose in the general election "dicks".  Kos has, throughout his rise to (alleged) Democratic pre-eminence, often arbitrated disputes, brokered agreements, and made official pronouncements and declarations of this type.

Moulitsas went on to lay out specific guidelines for talking about Clinton if she becomes the nominee. 

He distinguishes, for example, between “constructive criticism” of Clinton from a progressive perspective, and using “right-wing tropes” to attack her. He even prohibits liberal-themed name calling, like saying “she’s a sell-out corporatist whore oligarch.” 

Writers and commenters who violate the rules will make themselves eligible to be banned from the site.

Online Democrats, for those unfamiliar, are significantly more Caucasian, older, and progressive -- not the Clinton definition, the actual one -- than Democratic primary voters (in others words, Berners).  So this "get on the bandwagon or GTFO" deadline is being met with considerable derision.  I spend more time at the other place where Democrats hang out online, Depleted Uranium, and I can testify that there's been a serious cleaving of the Sanders camp from the Clintonites.

The powers that be at DK and DU (they can read the ominous Clinton GE polling, too) are trying to stitch up the wounds that the primary battle has blasted open before they face wholesale desertion among the partisan, straight-ticket-voting ranks.  If you don't frequent either of those two websites, you've surely seen the same dynamic play itself out on Facebook and Twitter.  It's also rational to start enforcing this command now because, left to fester, the intramural snipe fest will continue to endanger Clinton's inevitable march to the White House.

If this sounds like sheepdogging, it's more like herding cats.  Still, the fence-mending needs to start happening or else the low turnout (yes, it is) will indeed be exacerbated by the lingering resentment of the Sandernistas, and they very well might defect to the Greens ... or return to electoral apathy.

We'll have to watch this development and see if the cuts are too deep or if some scabs grow over them in time for November.  Almost nine months; you can make a baby in that time, from "Netflix and chill" all the way to DOB.

No bets taken on whether it will be a boy or a girl until later this summer.

Update: Kuff also posts and links to the Texas Observer's article that I interpret as another portent of low Democratic turnout in the fall.

Wheels come flying off for GOP in Detroit

From a frat house food fight to a porno shoot in just one week.  It's really not that much devolution if you take it in context.

Polls. Head to head. Flexibility. Hands. Strong core. Little Marco. This is all just a very bad porno. #GOPDebate

— Liz del Carmen (@LizMartinezG) March 4, 2016

See?  Size does matter in context.  But offensive and defensive penile length comparisons weren't -- for those watching closely -- the most gross thing we saw last night.

Also proof that Ted Cruz is made of polystyrene foam https://t.co/mNb4S5MD2W

— Ben (@rebenjamint) March 4, 2016

I don't think it was spittle; it looked firmer and larger than that.  It certainly wasn't a booger.  It could have been a piece of breath mint or even a chip of tooth.  Whatever it was, it eventually went back to where it came from.

I can never unsee this pic.twitter.com/jx0uApPsNM

— Sarah Parnass (@WordsOfSarah) March 4, 2016

Closer views, more spot analysis, and Zapruder-film-like GIFs at many links.

What little policy was discussed was completely overwhelmed by the insults.  I thought it was much, much worse than last week's takeoff on the Three Stooges.

The Three Stoopids
My morning project, in honor of last Thursday night's absurdities...
Posted by Carol Rosenthal on Friday, February 26, 2016

But truth to tell: all of these Republican debates have left me both highly entertained and completely exhausted.  Some people think Herr Drumpf has been dinged by the Cuban double-team, or by his own too-small hand.  I thought that was the case four months ago, but his endurance has proven me wrong.  The three slowly-receding challengers are falling in line, and it won't be long before their armies do the same.  Since The Donald won't #ReleaseTheTranscripts of the conversations with the New York Times regarding what he really thinks about immigration, he's still on the rails to victory.

The topic of climate change never came up, and the quality of Flint's water was only mentioned briefly enough for Rubio to defend Gov. Rick Snyder.  There was some foreign policy discussed, but it also had the air of a George Carlin schtick about missiles and bombs and penis size.

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton debate on Sunday and Michiganders vote on Tuesday.  Recent polling reveals Trump and Clinton with solid leads.

The dying throes of the GOP establishment

When all else fails, send in ... Mitt Romney.

Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will deliver a scorching indictment of Donald Trump on Thursday, calling the candidate a “phony” and a “fraud” who’d threaten America’s future. 

Romney is due to speak Thursday in Utah at the Hinckley Institute of Politics Forum on the state of the 2016 presidential race. Already a vocal critic of Trump, excerpts released ahead of the speech show Romney will go a step further in his attacks on the Republican frontrunner.

Gravitas.  I have great confidence that Trumpers and Trumpettes alike will respond favorably to the slings and arrows being slung and shot by the Man of 47% of The People.

Okay, moneymen: now it's your turn.

Wall Street is getting ready to go nuclear on Donald Trump. 

Terrified that the reality TV star could run away with the Republican nomination and bring his brand of anti-immigrant, protectionist populism to the White House, some top financiers are writing big checks to fund an effort to deny Trump a majority of delegates to the GOP convention. 

The effort is centered on the recently formed Our Principles PAC, the latest big-money group airing anti-Trump ads, which is run by GOP strategist Katie Packer, deputy campaign manager for Mitt Romney in 2012. 

The group, initially funded by $3 million from Marlene Ricketts, wife of billionaire T.D. Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, wants to saturate the expensive Florida airwaves ahead of the state’s March 15 primary with hopes of denying Trump a victory that could crush the hopes of home state Sen. Marco Rubio. 

A conference call on Tuesday to solicit donors for the group included Paul Singer, billionaire founder of hedge fund Elliott Management; Hewlett Packard President and CEO Meg Whitman; and Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts, one of Joe and Marlene Ricketts’ three sons. Wealthy Illinois businessman Richard Uihlein is also expected to help fund the effort. Jim Francis, a big GOP donor and bundler from Texas, was also on the phone call on Tuesday.

Just remember their names.  They are the poster children for a post-Citizens United world gone horribly wrong (in their opinion).  Whoever thought buying politicians would be so difficult?

You just can't hire good help.

This person said Singer, who is worth close to $2 billion, is fully dedicated to making sure the group has all the funds it needs to inundate the airwaves in Florida and other states viewed as not entirely friendly to Trump, a group that includes Illinois, Missouri, Arizona, Wisconsin and other states in the Northeast and West. Ohio could join the list if Trump moves ahead of the state’s governor, John Kasich, in the polls. 

“The money is not going to be a problem. We will raise what we need to do what we need to do,” the person close to the new anti-Trump PAC said. “Yes, there are people who are skeptical, but there are just as many ready to write big checks. The question is only whether Trump truly is really Teflon.” 

The theory, this person said, is that voters are still largely unaware of the full case against Trump. “We have not seen how he holds up to real sustained attacks over the KKK and David Duke stuff, over Trump University, over Trump Mortgage. People don’t really know about that stuff. We are about to find out what happens when they find out about it.”

Good luck ... I guess.  It's not personal; it's strictly business.

The pitch to Wall Street titans and other CEOs is that a President Trump would be disastrous for markets and the economy. Many economists say that if the U.S. were to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants in a single year, the immediate hit to gross domestic product would lead to a depression. And slapping massive tariffs on goods from Mexico and China could dramatically increase prices for U.S. consumers and create destabilizing trade wars. “The most important thing about Trump is, he is completely unpredictable and volatile, and the one thing business needs is predictability,” Packer said. 

But prosecuting that case will take tens of millions of dollars spread across multiple states. 

And many Wall Street donors are already burned out after pumping over $100 million to Jeb Bush and his Right to Rise super PAC with nothing to show for it. Wall Street’s support is also splintered among candidates at the moment. Singer is backing Rubio. Financiers Stanley Druckenmiller and Ken Langone are backing Kasich. And many senior executives say trying to stop Trump now is a foolish crusade that will wind up burning cash with nothing to show for it.

Buyer's remorse on Jeb!  Who would have ever believed?

The one thing most of Wall Street agrees on at this point is that Trump’s grasp of economic policy is weak at best. And should he manage to defeat likely Democratic nominee Clinton in the fall, already turbulent markets could go completely haywire.
“[Trump] has a kindergarten view of economics. The man says China is manipulating currency. China is in the biggest currency run in history, they’re losing $100 billion a month,” Druckenmiller said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday morning. “He doesn’t know what he is talking about. The stuff that comes out his mouth just astonishes me.” 

Other Wall Street analysts say the biggest risk from Trump is that no one really knows what his core beliefs really are. And it is not clear what kind of people he might appoint to critical jobs in his administration. Trump thus far has floated only billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn as a possible economic adviser in his administration.

Someone buy these suits a copy of Idiocracy, for crine out loud.

It's not going to work, but it will be most amusing to watch them try.  Here is your buried lede:

That leaves many Wall Street Republicans with the same conundrum as naional party leaders: Figure out a way to make peace with Trump, pray for an independent bid by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg or quietly hope Clinton wins the general election in November. 

Clinton has many supporters on Wall Street — something that has complicated her primary campaign against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders — and plenty of Republicans who don’t like her would still prefer her to Trump. “I could never support Hillary,” the Wall Street executive who raised money for Bush said. “But plenty of my friends will just hold their nose and vote for her.”

Ahahahahaha.  And people say that Democrats and Republicans aren't alike.

D for Drumpf Day, D for Debate Night in Detroit

Thanks to John Oliver for the original German.  And mad props to Dr. Ben Carson, who finally woke up and smelled the coffee.  It must have been something that God Ted Cruz put on his heart.

The Republican presidential candidates come to Detroit to debate Thursday night at the Fox Theatre with businessman Donald Trump maintaining a 10-point lead on his closest competitors in Michigan's March 8 primary in a new poll commissioned by the Free Press and other media outlets.

Trump is at 29%, Cruz 19%, Rubio 18%, Kasich at 8 and Carson at 7.  18% of Wolverine State GOPers are still undecided.  That allows for a lot of assignment, and reassignment, of loyalties.

The debate will turn the political spotlight squarely on Michigan, which with its 59 delegates to award, is the biggest prize among states voting March 8. Others include Hawaii, Idaho and Mississippi. Four other states, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine, have nominating contests in the meantime, on Saturday.

I wonder if the topic of the water in Flint will come up.

In many ways, Detroit represents the state's biggest comeback while Flint reflects its largest setback. 

Expect GOP candidates to credit Republican Gov. Rick Snyder with Detroit's successes while the Democrats will continue to criticize him for his handling of the Flint water crisis. 

"I think Detroit exemplifies the best of what our state has to offer at every level," said Michigan Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel.

Most of the carping I've seen from conservatives about Detroit has been about how horrible it is and how Democrats were to blame for it, so this is a refreshing change of pace at the very least.  It is also disaster capitalism at its very finest.  Leave it to the spin doctors to demonstrate the contrast.

Karl Rove, senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to former President George W. Bush, said that while Detroit may not be a huge part of the GOP debate, it showcases Republican success. 

"I'm not sure it will be a major point, but I think it could be a point," Rove said. "There will also be probably the opportunity to point out that it's also a sign of a Democratic failure that was rescued by Republicans, because Detroit has had a Democrat mayor and a Democrat council and a Democrat city government for literally decades." 

Rove and Jim Messina, former campaign manager to President Barack Obama, are slated to speak at Michigan Political Leadership Program events early next month. 

Messina said it wouldn't work for Republicans to claim Detroit as a victory. They opposed things like the auto bailout and the Affordable Care Act — actions from President Barack Obama that helped the city. In other words, they have a deeper problem. 

"They opposed everything that worked in Detroit," Messina said.

Much more at that link about Michigan, Detroit, and Flint, where the Dems will debate Sunday.  Fox is moderating tonight's affair; you remember what happened the last time.

In the first Fox News debate, he seethed at her. Before the second debate began, he walked. 

But on Thursday night, Donald J. Trump and Megyn Kelly will be back on stage together for the 11th Republican presidential debate, and Fox’s third of the primary season. 

As the front-runner for the nomination and coming off a string of Super Tuesday wins, Mr. Trump will be at center stage, fending off attacks from his remaining rivals and questions from what could be fairly described as his least favorite moderating team.

Don't expect anybody to be on their best behavior (as usual).