KHOU poll is more bad news for Hall

Annise Parker's challenger can only hope that his supporters have been seriously undersampled.

Annise Parker seems headed for a runoff in her campaign to keep her job, but she commands more than twice as many supporters as her leading challenger in a newly released poll commissioned by KHOU 11 News and KUHF – Houston Public Radio.

Still, just six weeks before Election Day, roughly half of all surveyed voters either didn’t know or wouldn’t say how they’re going to vote.

Parker leads the pack of candidates at 34 percent, with former city attorney Ben Hall at 14 percent. About 48 percent of voters are classified as undecided, indicating the incumbent mayor will have to fight to keep the post to which she was narrowly re-elected two years ago.

“I don’t see the mayor losing this race,” said Bob Stein, the KHOU political analyst who conducted the survey. “I’m not certain she’ll win it in the general election, like she did in 2011. But the mayor, who tends to get high marks as a mayor, simply doesn’t get what I’d call great public support as a candidate.”

Stein has it right.  It's possible that Hall can shore himself up a little in the next seven weeks, but only enough to force the mayor into a runoff.  More Stein...

“(Hall) expects to bring out a large number of African-American voters and win 80, 90 percent of that. Doesn’t seem to be working. Turnout may be a little bit higher among African-American voters, but he’s only winning 29 percent of the African-American vote, to the mayor’s 24 percent.”

Meanwhile, Parker garners 27 percent of Anglo Republican voters’ support compared to Hall’s 11 percent.

The biggest surprise in this polling is that the mayor is getting the Republican votes, and she isn't losing the black votes by enough to make a difference.  Actually it's not that surprising; Hall is just a terrible candidate with an even worse campaign.  And  'delusional' isn't helping.

"These numbers show what we hear every day: Ms. Parker's tenure has been repudiated by the people of Houston and she will not be re-elected as the next mayor," (Hall campaign spokesperson Julie Smekalina) said. "As Houstonians are beginning to see the vision Ben Hall has set forth, they are rallying behind his ideas for the city's future. The grass-roots momentum that we see supporting Ben's candidacy is growing and will secure his election as mayor."

You have to be on LSD to see that.   I'll go out on a very thin limb and say that a runoff is still possible.  But with numbers like these for the campaign operatives to spin, it's growing unlikely for Ben Hall.

If you're one of that 48% who haven't decided whom to vote for, go out to one of the forums on this schedule and see what the candidates have to say.

Mike Morris at the HouChron, KUHF (which conducted the poll with the TV station), Dos Centavos and Texpatriate also weigh in.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is thoroughly enjoying some Republican slapstick comedy as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff implores Sen. Leticia Van de Putte to run for lieutenant governor.  One look at the group vying for the GOP nomination shows how much Democrats need her on their ticket.

Eye On Williamson is having some technical difficulties, and hopes to be back next week.

Texas Leftist takes an early look at Annise Parker's political legacy as mayor of Houston, and why lacking a third term isn't the only reason it seems incomplete.  Also, we remember some wisdom from Ann Richards on why Texas Democrats are different.

Once PDiddie at Brains and Eggs declared this year's municipal election season in Houston "the most boring ever", things started to pick up a bit.

Horwitz at Texpatriate discusses the controversy that has arisen in a Houston city council election after one leading candidate allegedly made some unspeakably offensive comments.

Over at TexasKaos, Libby Shaw explains that cravenness hasn't gone out of style, no sir. Check out More of the Same. Cruel, Crazy and Craven.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

John Coby has some advice for David Dewhurst.

The Great God Pan Is Dead showcases an excellent graphical guide to the insurance exchanges.

Better Texas Blog covers young adults and the insurance marketplace.

Texas Living Waters Project calls out Lite Guv candidate Jerry Patterson for his ignorant remarks about endangered species.

Nonesequiteuse has an action item for everyone who believes in reproductive justice.

Prairie Weather examines the link between Obamacare and ego.

TFN Insider reminds us why Don McLeroy should never be allowed near a textbook.

Sunday Funnies

"If you define 'mass shootings' as four or more people getting shot at one time, we've had nearly 250 so far this year. We've only had 260 days! Our mass shooting average is 96 percent. Our mass shooting scores shouldn't be that much higher than our math and science scores. There have been more mass-shooting days than Jewish holidays---and there are a shitload of Jewish holidays."

-- Jon Stewart

Paula Deen was a big butterball of emotion today during her first public appearance since settling the racial discrimination lawsuit that destroyed her career ... and we've got the pics.

Paula appeared in Houston, Texas for the Metro Cooking and Entertainment Show to mark her return ... and got choked up after receiving a standing ovation when she hit the stage.

The 66-year old chef told the crowd she had been wanting her return to take place in Texas all along ... and was just shedding tears of joy.

Down-ballot Democratic prospects, updated

Kolten Parker at the HouChron, behind the paywall, makes the case I made a month ago that everything blue for 2014 hinges on that certain someone.  And also reminds us that even state Sen. Leticia Van De Putte's presumptive bid for lieutenant governor depends on what Wendy does.

But he also names a few new (to me) names as potential statewides.

State Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, said he is considering a run for attorney general.

"Politics is about timing," Uresti said. "And I certainly think it's the right time for the Democratic Party, and for myself as well."

Other candidates being courted by Democrats to make the leap are state Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, who has more than $1 million in his campaign account, state Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas and state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin. None returned calls for comment.

Uresti does not stand for re-election to the state senate until 2016.  But West and Watson -- like Davis herself -- are up in 2014, which is to say that they must relinquish thier seats to run for higher office.  The same, of course, for Rep. Anchia (because the House terms are two years).

I am still hoping Sen. Rodney Ellis will run for something -- perhaps against John Cornyn? -- as he does not have to run for re-election in 2014, has the ability to fund a campaign himself, and brings much-needed diversity to the ticket.

So add those names to the 'definitely maybe' category.  Besides the potential team of Davis and VDP at the top, Texas Democrats today have two declareds: Houston businessman Mike Collier running for state comptroller, and former El Paso mayor John Cook standing for GLO.

Anybody know anything else?  A juicy rumor, perhaps?

Update: Go read Socratic Gadfly's observations in the comments -- and an expanded version at his shop -- about West, and by extension, Ellis.  As Texpate reminds, Raffi Anchia stated in June that he was focusing on re-election to the House (and not a Dallas mayoral bid).  So the list of rumored candidate prospects is still barely enough to qualify as a decent rumor.

Ted Cruz, Tom DeLay, and rapper M.I.A.

-- Here's Why Ted Cruz's Plan To Defund Obamacare Was Always Doomed.

The House bill that continues funding for the government is expected to pass on Friday. It will go to the Senate, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will face two potential filibusters of the legislation.

One is on the vote to begin debate — which is not likely to produce a fight. The language will enter the Senate with the House language, so there's no reason for conservatives in the Senate to vote against opening debate on the bill.

The key procedural movement will come next. A Democratic Senate aide said that it's likely Democrats will introduce an amendment to strip the House language defunding Obamacare after the vote to end debate occurs. Because of Senate rules, they can do so by a simple majority vote.

That makes the second cloture vote the one to watch. That's when Cruz, along with Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), can argue that voting to end debate will enable Reid to get rid of the House language that defunds Obamacare — "which is true," the Democratic aide said.

Here's why that's a problem: Reid needs 60 votes to end debate. He can count on all 52 Democrats (including himself), as well as the Senate's two Independents, to vote to end debate and strip the language defunding Obamacare.

That means he needs only six Republicans to vote to end debate. And 14 Senate Republicans have already expressed their dismay with the strategy — mostly because doing so involves the possibility of shutting down the government.

Even the cartoonists have grown tired of lampooing Cruz, when there are others just like him (only lacking some of his talent at bombast).

For his part, "Poop" has already worn out his welcome in Washington, and in less than a year.  You have to admit that's quite an accomplishment.

The truth is that defunding Obamacare -- just like ending abortion -- is a fundraising mechanism for the GOP.  They use the issue to fleece conservatives who have more money than sense.  It's always been this way.

There are Republicans who are starting to see through Cruz, they're just not the poor saps who sent him to DC in the first place.  These folks who vote in the Texas Republican primary are probably not redeemable at this point after so many errors in judgment (Rick Perry, Greg Abbott, David Dewhurst, Dan Patrick,John Culberson, Louie Gohmert, Steve Stockman, blahblahblah).

We have to stop allowing deranged, delusional people create the reality that the rest of us have to live in.  How's Battleground Texas coming along, anyway?

-- La Cucaracha takes a victory lap.

Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, reveling in victory Thursday against Texas prosecutors in a money-laundering case, said his political career is over but he’s eager to return to the courthouse.

If he can find a lawyer “with a backbone,” DeLay said, he’ll considering suing the Travis County district attorney for the eight-year legal clash that ended with an appeals court tossing his conviction.

“I cannot take this laying down. For the welfare of the people that serve in the future, I can’t just let this go,” he said.

The threat was vintage DeLay.

Let's allow him to get comfortable, then let's squash his guts all over the floor.  Again.

-- The NFL wages war on another halftime performer, and she's fighting back.

On Feb. 5, 2012, nearly 167 million TV viewers tuned in to Super Bowl XLVI to watch a matchup between the New York Giants and New England Patriots. Besides the football action, what had people talking that day was a halftime performance by M.I.A. and, specifically, how she extended her middle finger during a performance of "Give Me All Your Luvin' " while mouthing, "I don't give a shit."

But the NFL did care. One month after the performance, the league initiated legal proceedings against the English-Sri Lankan rapper-singer. In a March 13, 2012, filing at the American Arbitration Association, obtained by The Hollywood Reporter, the league demanded $1.5 million from M.I.A. for allegedly breaching her performance contract and tarnishing its goodwill and reputation.

In the 18 months since, the 38-year-old M.I.A. (born Mathangi "Maya" Arulpragasam) has been waging a secret legal war with the NFL over what happened at Super Bowl XLVI. Last week, league lawyers continued their push to have her deemed liable for her actions on summary judgment before moving to a trial for damages.

This is not going over too well with M.I.A, best known for her catchy agitpop music including the hit song "Paper Planes," which includes the repeated sound of gunfire. She's also used her fame to spotlight human rights abuses in her war-torn South Asian homeland. Now her lawyer Howard King tells THR that his client plans to launch a public war on the mega-powerful football league.

Moneyshot, from her barrister...

"Of course, the NFL's claimed reputation for wholesomeness is hilarious," King tells THR, "in light of the weekly felonies committed by its stars, the bounties placed by coaches on opposing players, the homophobic and racist comments uttered by its players, the complete disregard for the health of players and the premature deaths that have resulted from same, and the raping of public entities ready to sacrifice public funds to attract teams."

What, you forgot the NFL was a big bunch of socialists?

The most boring municipal election season ever

Yes, it's this one.

Ben Hall's team has been arrested for burglary (of thunder).  Eric Dick hasn't even put out any signs, for chrissakes.  Helena Brown and Brenda Stardig -- and Amy Peck and the rest of that Tea Pee gang out in Oak Forest -- are as quiet as churchmice.

Michael Kubosh has apparently put the kibosh on his own campaign. (Turn the cameras back on, buddy! Please!)  Jenifer Rene Pool and Rogene Calvert and all the rest of AL3 are similarly flying well under the radar. Even Big Jolly's post about the candidate forum held at the Pachyderm Club last week put my feet to sleep.

This is a wretched development.  I have never been so bored in my decade-plus of blogging.

To be clear, I like the stealth campaign of Don Cook for mayor.  He's had four LTEs published by the Chronicle.  I suppose I could link to them, if I could find them.  And James Horwitz, the challenger to Jack "You Don't Die from the Flu" Christie, is a great candidate in need of a little more exposure, just like everybody else.

I remember when city council campaigns had some electricity around them.  Even Ben Mendez and Graci Garces seem to have shot their wads early.  (I really thought that nasty "fat" joke was going to be a running battle.  Alas, no.)

And please don't suggest that I read whatever drivel Campos is writing.  The lights aren't on and nobody's home, folks.  It's an empty house.  Nobody wants to break into it, either.  Not even the hungry, homeless people want to crash there.

For today's example, he seems completely unaware of the fact that deathcare monopolist SCI, owner of Forest Park Lawndale cemetery (and every other boneyard in Houston), has a standing offer to purchase the adjacent Gus Wortham golf course whenever the city is ready to sell.  The price has only been going in one direction for years now, and it's not up.  Even the developers won't get interested in bidding for that very prime property, because the neighborhood hasn't gentrified enough for them.  And it probably never will.

I bet if he ever spoke to James Rodriguez once in awhile, he might have become aware of this.

Maybe this will have some fireworks.  Perhaps there will be a poll released on the mayor's race, or someone will sling some piece of mud that's larger than a crawfish mound.

But I gotta say that so far, it's been really lame.

Update: District I to the rescue!

Eastside city council candidate Ben Mendez’s campaign claims he  is being smeared by rumors and innuendos, and denied Mendez  blamed a gang rape of an 11-year-old girl on the clothes she was wearing.

Campaign manager Joaquin Martinez  confirmed  community leader  Bill Lawson has withdrawn his support for Mendez in the District I race. Lawson, a respected former pastor, wrote a letter saying he had “serious problems” with Mendez remarks on the sexual attack, as well as what he called negative campaigning against candidate Graci Garces.

“There have been people saying Ben made insensitive remarks, but Ben didn’t make any,” said Martinez. 

Martinez, you may recall, was a candidate in the SD-6 special last winter.

“Throughout the campaign we’ve had several people who have tried to smear Ben Mendez as a candidate, because he is the frontrunner right now.”

There's no polling of any significance that reflects who is leading in this race; that's just bravado on the part of Martinez.  Personally I don't see how Mendez could possibly have ever been ahead at any time.  And trust me, my opinion carries as much weight as Martinez's and everybody else's (except for the one belonging to Marc Campos, which is worth less than zero as usual).

This development has significance due to Lawson's high standing in the African American community (and the likelihood that black turnout in this year's election might be somewhat higher than in years past).

In the letter, Lawson wrote that he admired Mendez as a civic leader, businessman and a friend, adding he would make a good city representative for  the council district.

“I simply cannot continue to take a stand for underclasses and give public endorsement for someone who would ignore them,” Lawson wrote.

Pretty harsh.  After taking the summer off, it looks like there might be a resumption of hostilities between the Mendez and Garces teams.

I'll pop the corn.

Update: Texpate digs deeper into the details.

Update II (Friday, 9/20): Big Jolly has another kerfuffle involving involving Kubosh and a "racist" e-mail.  My feet are wide awake now.