Latest poll shows top ten GOP contenders for first debate

Just two weeks before the first Republican presidential candidate debate and the latest from Pew Public Policy Polling shows the top ten -- the only ones who get in -- as these:

Trump 19%
Walker 17
Bush 12
Carson 10
Rubio 10
Huckabee 8
4% each for Cruz, Fiorina, and Paul
3 each for Christie and this week's entrant, Kasich.

That's eleven, with Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Santorum at 2%, outside looking in.  Jim Gilmore (who?), Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki all have 1%.

This ABC/WaPo from Monday only ranks nine, in this order: Trump, Walker, Bush, Huckabee, Rubio, Paul, Carson, Cruz, and Perry.

Establishment Republicans are already cringing in agony at the thought of a debate where Trump's mouth turns into a flamethrower directed at everybody else on stage with him.  Thus, I'm pulling for former governor Goodhair and Glasses to make the cut, because he's been the only Rethug willing to rumble with The Donald over Ill Eagles.  Speaking of trolls, the leader is in Laredo today -- completely surrounded by gobs of various law enforcement officers -- to tour the border.

"I've been invited by the border patrols, and they want to honor me actually, and thousands and thousands of them, because I'm speaking up," Trump said Wednesday on Fox News. "I may never see you again, but we're going to do it."

[...]

“I hope he can find the border because I’m not sure he’s ever been there before," Perry said.

No mention of Greg Abbott joining him, as he did with Walker four months ago.

The dynamic with Ted Cruz forswearing 'Republican-on-Republican violence' in refusing to criticize Trump is your basic Cruz-styled political calculation: he plans to sweep up the Bigot Caucus when Trump eventually quits the race (and hopefully runs as a third-party protest).

Donald Trump says the chances that he will launch a third-party White House run will “absolutely” increase if the Republican National Committee is unfair to him during the 2016 primary season.

“The RNC has not been supportive. They were always supportive when I was a contributor. I was their fair-haired boy,” the business mogul told The Hill in a 40-minute interview from his Manhattan office at Trump Tower on Wednesday. “The RNC has been, I think, very foolish.”

Pressed on whether he would run as a third-party candidate if he fails to clinch the GOP nomination, Trump said that “so many people want me to, if I don’t win.”

“I’ll have to see how I’m being treated by the Republicans,” Trump said. “Absolutely, if they’re not fair, that would be a factor.”

Primary season is so much fun, isn't it?

Ben Hall and Dave Wilson

As with Ben Hall and Steven Hotze last week, a "butthole buddies" joke right about now would just be too easy.

On Tuesday HOUequality posted a photo of Ben Hall's signature on the anti-HERO petition. "If someone is running to represent all Houstonians (in fact Mr.Hall's campaign slogan has been 'Ben Hall for All') how can they add their name to a petition designed to divide and denigrate transgender Houstonians?" the post asked. (We called over to Hall's campaign headquarters and a Hall volunteer confirmed that Hall definitely signed it.) HOUequality has promised that there will be more of these disclosures coming this week. 

Ben Hall is NOT for all.  I thought that was conspicuous two years ago when he challenged Annise Parker and got drubbed, and was insincere about his homophobia on numerous occasions.

He doesn't really give a shit what you think if you're homosexual, or if you support the civil rights of homosexual people in all of society.  That's a fairly large constituency to write off in Houston.  Worse yet, it is the wrong side of history now, and a definite regression from his last run, where he either couched or concealed his antipathy better.  At this point Hall has probably stolen the anti-HERO vote away from Bill King, who kinda needed it in order to make the runoff.

You have a pastor running on a campaign of hate, with several other pastors lined up behind him.  I just don't think that's what Jesus would do... but I'm an atheist, so what  do I know?

I suppose there are enough Christian conservative gay-bashing men and women, of all creeds and colors, in both the Democratic and Republican parties, that Hall can get to his polled three percent.  But at this point, if Ben Hall gets more votes than Marty McVey, it will be an embarrassment.  Not to McVey, but to the entire city of Houston.

Updates to posts on Sandra Bland, Bernie Sanders, etc.

-- The dashcam video of Bland's arrest, released yesterday by the DPS, appears to have been edited.  There's also this, about good ol' Waller County.

In 2008 the Houston Chronicle detailed how local cemeteries were still segregated. There were black cemeteries and white cemeteries and those were the rules. When one Waller County justice of the peace, DeWayne Charleston, attempted to bury the body of a brutally slain white woman in a black cemetery, his plea was overturned by Waller County Judge Owen Ralston. Ralston said it cost too much, saving taxpayers more than $400. The Jane Doe, whose body was never claimed after a year, was eventually buried in a privately owned and operated white cemetery.

According to the Chronicle, a county resident of Hempstead sued the city for failing to maintain its black cemeteries. That lawsuit was successful. In 2007 the city of Hempstead’s police chief, Glenn Smith, was suspended after being accused of racism.

A little further back, in 2004, black residents rejoiced when District Attorney Oliver Kitzman stepped down after an alleged “reign of terror” centered around discrimination, the Los Angeles Times reported. Black leaders reportedly accused Kitzman and other white officials of targeting and harassing residents based on race, a claim that was denied. Black leaders in Waller in 2004 claimed that they were subject to crude intimidation, such as rocks being thrown through house windows and police cars often passing slowly by the homes of black “troublemakers.” Black residents also complained about alleged plots to suppress the black vote.

According to the 2013 census data, Waller County’s population of 45,484 was 70.5 percent white and a mere 25.8 percent black.

Segregated cemeteries.

I think what has really changed over the last couple of years, and perhaps starting with Michael Brown's murder-by-cop in Ferguson, Missouri, is that black people in America just aren't going to put up with being treated like this by the police any longer.  Certainly America's police haven't changed any over that time.

-- What I said three weeks ago about Bernie Sanders needing to work for African American and Latino votes?  Attendees at his Houston event last Sunday said it was as diverse an audience as they had seen at any Obama event from eight years ago.  That may be accurate (I was unable to attend, and it's just not apparent from the hundreds of photos I have seen), but it's not being reflected in his polling.

"I haven't seen him engaging the black community. Nor am I hearing any chatter about him," said Rick Wade, Obama for America's African-American vote director. "Black voters don't know him."

A June CNN/ORC poll showed just 2% of black Democrats supporting Sanders, a figure that has remained unchanged since February. Among non-white voters overall, Sanders polls at 9% compared to Hillary Clinton's 61%.

That's no path to the White House, no matter how correct he is, has been, or speaks.

"Black lives, of course, matter. I spent 50 years of my life fighting for civil rights and for dignity," Sanders said. "But if you don't want me to be here, that's OK. I don't want to out-scream people."

[...]

Sanders re-emerged later that evening for a short speech at a private fundraiser for the Latino Victory Project, an advocacy group led by major Democratic donors that focuses on Latino outreach, where he, again, took questions about race.

But instead of adopting the defensive stance from that morning, Sanders' tone changed. He appeared humble, and asked questions of the activists gathered about how he could better pursue and talk about policies to combat racial injustice.

"I want some help on this. I'm being very honest," Sanders said. "I want some ideas, as somebody who was arrested 50 years ago fighting for civil rights trying to desegregate schools in Chicago, who spent his whole life fighting against racism, I want your ideas. What do you think we can do? What can we do?"

[...]

"I wish I could tell you I had a magical formula for how to end racism. It's gone on in this country for before it was America," Sanders said. "Let me just say this, because I'm older than you: You're impatient, and you should be impatient. But if we were standing here 30 years ago and somebody said, 'You know, I think in 2008, the United States of America will elect an African-American president,' you know what people in this room would've said? They would've said, 'You are crazy. That will never happen because America has too much racist baggage.' But it happened. So, I guess you're right to be impatient, but we have made progress in this country. Not enough."

'Not enough' progress.  By all of us.  But specific to this blog post, probably not enough progress for Sanders to capture enough black votes to win the Democratic nomination over the course of the next 6-9 months.

I'll ask again: what are (mostly) white progressives going to do when the reality finally settles in?  Fall in line behind Hillary Clinton, fall out (as in 'not vote'), or take a third path?

The Houston controller candidates forum

It's been five long months since I blogged about the city's head beancounter race.  A few of the wannabes got together for a debate in my neck of the woods at the end of last week.

Perpetually overshadowed in Houston's strong-mayor form of government that affords the controller no policy-making power, many past city controllers were known for using the post as a bully pulpit to criticize mayoral policy, and later a launching pad for higher office.

Earlier this year, the five declared controller candidates indicated they would depart from this mold.

However, that tone shifted at a forum in Sunnyside, where three of the candidates addressed a predominantly African-American crowd gathered at a neighborhood community center.

"It's the second-highest elected official in city government, and it needs to be independent to provide a check and balance on the office in power," said former City Councilman Jew Don Boney, who went on to say the controller must not be an ally or lapdog to the mayor.

I like JD Boney because he tells it like it is.

Still, Boney stressed the controller ought not approach the role bureaucratically.

"This is not an election for the chief bookkeeper of Houston," Boney said. "We hire CPAs."

Bill Frazer, 2013 controller runner-up, who touts himself as the only certified public accountant in the race, was not in attendance. Former Houston Community College board member Carroll Robinson also missed the bulk of the forum, walking in during closing remarks.

Meanwhile, deputy controller Chris Brown edged closer to the idea of a controller at odds with the mayor, albeit more gingerly.

Brown said the relationship between mayor and controller should depend on the state of the city's fiscal affairs.

"In times of great surplus, where there's a lot of money, I think the mayor and the controller should be adversaries, because that's the time when the mayor's gonna say, 'Hey, we've got tons of money. Let's just go spend it,' " Brown said.

"But," he added, "I think in the times when we have difficult financial problems, there needs to be more of a concerted effort to work together to solve the financial problems in the city."

With the city facing a $126 million deficit, Brown's remarks suggest his approach to the job would likely be similar to that of Controller Ron Green, who has not had a combative relationship with Mayor Annise Parker.

Let's set the table before moving forward: Brown is both one of the city's #2 men in the controller's office, and the son of former city councilman and mayoral candidate Peter Brown, aka Mr. Anne Sclumberger.  So you can safely assume without even looking at one of the far-too-many blog posts about campaign finance reports that Brown the Younger will have the 'resources to compete'.  Said resources did not help Brown the Elder in 2009 attain a runoff with Annise Parker, for the record.

Robinson is part of the Bethel Nathan/Hector Carreno mafia, whose players have consistently disgraced themselves in local politics for way too long.

Frazer, the only Republican in the race, forced the corrupted incumbent controller Green into a runoff two years ago.  He didn't show up at this forum because -- as the first excerpt above pointed out -- it was held in Sunnyside, almost in my own backyard and a predominantly African American and Democratic neighborhood.  Frazer's not counting on any votes from this side of town.  It's possible that if Democrats turn out at their usual low-to-mid-teen percentages in the fall, he could win without a runoff.  Finally...

Former Metro board member Dwight Jefferson was of a similar mind.

"I think that the mayor and the controller should work as equals," said Jefferson, who previously described the controller's job as ministerial. He said city leadership should work together to "ensure the best outcome for the city."

Jefferson was appointed a state district court judge by then-Gov. George W. Bush in the mid-'90's, ran and won in 1996 as a Republican (scroll almost to the end), but since 2010 has a Democratic primary voting history (scroll all the way to the bottom and then back up just a little).  Also read this for some interesting coalitions and alliances from twenty years ago.  Despite Brown's 11-year tenure at City Hall, Jefferson might still be the best man for the job, but both men also could be too unfamiliar to voters; Brown's deputy controller post and Jefferson's Metro board job are appointed ones.

Boney likely has the strongest constituency; he needs good field work to make the runoff.  Frankly I don't see any advantage for Robinson here despite being an elected community college board official; as befits the usual tactics of his godfathers Nathan and Carreno (scroll down about halfway; fraud is this family's affair), he could be in the race only to split the black vote enough for Frazer to sneak in.  Brown is the only white Democrat in the race, and the only one who can spend whatever.

Depending on who you think the next mayor will be, and on what these men consider the relationship between the mayor's office and the controller's office is supposed to be -- amicable or adversarial -- your choices for both jobs might be influenced by that careful consideration.  For example, if you think Sylvester Turner or Adrian Garcia is most likely Houston's next mayor, then Frazer as controller will be a very predictable pain in their ass.  And if you like Republicans Stephen Costello or Bill King, then a Democrat in the controller's office with some heft behind him, like Boney, will create a similar dynamic.  Jefferson is the most likely to go along and get along with the next mayor no matter who it is.  You might prefer a check-and-balance, you might like it better if everybody plays nice.  Up to you.

As far as Houston's budgeting for the coming biennium is concerned, between the revenue cap and the price of oil, we're likely looking at some hard times and difficult decisions.  So, friends or not, the next mayor and controller have their work cut out for them.

Politically, all of these Democrats together have to hold Frazer under 50%, and then the chosen one must run hard as hell in the runoff.  No bets taken yet.