Sunday, December 15, 2019
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
To 2020 and beyond (and back again)
The March 2020 primary ballots are set, barring a couple of past-the-post changes. There will be a Green slate of statewides and more, eventually. Kuffy's handling the deep Donkey dive and Stacey's endorsing his friends as usual, so I'll focus on the fun. We have one more election here in H-Town to conclude this year, and here's the relevant data point on early turnout.
Keir Murray points out that the H- Town electorate is, demographically if not almost precisely, the same good citizens who voted last month (visit the Tweet thread for the comparison).
It's remarkable how closely this matches this morning's fresh poll. And as we know, these/those folks nearly put Mayor Sly back in without this pesky runoff, gave the purplish District C two Democrats to choose from (see below), and will -- hopefully -- sweep out the Kubosh/Dolcefino/Dick conservo-trash from Council's At Large seats.
I'm not going to spend my holiday Saturday evening refreshing harrisvotes.com for late-arriving election returns, and I may not even Tweet much about them depending on the quantity of alcohol imbibed. Likewise I encourage you to go forth and make merry this weekend, and check your favorite source for the final results on Sunday morning.
Onward to the new decade.
There will be amusing developments on the right, and far right, and extremely far right (and fascist right and OMG GOP WTF right) in this snapshot, as I bounce around from city council to the statehouse, Congressional, county commissioner, and time-travel to the past and then back to the present day. So if this post reads disjointedly ... well, strap in and enjoy the ride.
Update: For the record, I posted here in advance of Hooks, so if anybody took inspiration from somewhere, it was him from me.
It is my belief that the further starboard the conservatives move, so go the Donks in trying to appeal to the so-called centrists, which at this point are essentially Republicans who tolerate gays and abortion. I'm so old I can remember the phrase "I'm a social liberal and a fiscal conservative". The GOP-ers who allegedly gave a large, steaming shit about federal government deficit spending, i.e. the Tea Party, seem to have gone extinct.
Now you might prefer to call these folks 'ticket-splitters', because what they believe and who they vote for may not be in perfect alignment. Here's some evidence.
Hillary Republicans in west Houston just couldn't stretch to Jenifer Rene Pool four years ago. Likewise in 2018 for Beto/Dan Crenshaw voters. (Crenshaw has drawn a better D challenger than 2018's inept Todd Litton, but EyePatch's heavy national following thanks to his SNL appearance makes him a more formidable obstacle.) With respect to Harris County Precinct 3, and evolving electorate aside, it may be an easier flip if next spring's primaries give us a fall match between, say, Brenda Stardig and Kristi Thibault or Morris Overstreet. We'll wait and see.
The African American dynamic in the Democratic primary should prove captivating.
-- Jerry Davis v. Harold Dutton (HD-142)
-- Jolanda Jones v. Ann Bennett (Harris County Tax Assessor/Collector)
-- Ashton Woods v. Shawn Thierry (HD-146)
It isn't quite accurate to describe these races as 'progressive challengers to (slightly more) conservative incumbents'. Of the three, Dutton is the most endangered.
Manny Fernandez for the New York Times profiled Dutton and his quandary. <<-- This is the best read in this post, particularly for those who have missed the controversy.
I made no recommendations on whom to vote for in HISD races in 2019 because of the state's imminent takeover. I don't have children or grandchildren in the school system; my expectation for these representatives of the public trust is that their decision-making, such as spending taxpayer money, won't be crooked or stupid. That very low bar has rarely been cleared. So I really have no idea as to whether Greg Abbott's appointees will do any better, but despite our governor's own long-standing reputation for rock-bottom ethical conduct, it seems difficult to project that he/they might do worse. Some of us understand that Abbott is dippin' in the koolaid that he doesn't know the flavor, and it's a crine-ass shame that he gets the chance to do so. HISD is an uber-clusterf, and Dutton is likely to be the fall guy for it. And probably not the last one.
I got a lot more but let me stop with two HTX city council runoff races that get decided this Saturday. First, from nonsequiteuse. She mad again, y'all.
I get it, Andrea, but I just see it more as a distinction without much of a difference than you. And I actually prefer Abbie Kamin's position on guns more than I do Shelley Kennedy's. It's not cool that Kennedy called Kamin's stance "leftist" and "wants to take away" guns, for sure. And donating to Bill King smells bad too, although there are a lot of voters who think Sylvester Turner is nothing but the lesser of two evils *raises hand*.
This contest has the Democratic establishment and progressive organizations split all over, with Kennedy claiming, as nonseq has noted, a good bit of conservative support. Kennedy got my recommendation to District C's voters due to her closer-to-the-people grassroots effort, including some activist Democrats I respect. That's compared with Kamin's large fundraising apparatus and establishment backing, something I find myself increasingly leery of. I don't see any losers here; Kamin will make a fine CM if she prevails.
And if hindsight from four years in the future reveals I made the wrong call here, then I probably made a bigger mistake endorsing Edward Pollard over Sandra Rodriguez, based on his bragging about being a conservative Democrat. I hate that shit.
She's exactly the kind of candidate I like, and Pollard, as it turns out, is not. Let this be a lesson to me that more due diligence is necessary over the course of the next 90 or so days. If you still can in District J, vote for Ms. Rodriguez. Mea maxima culpa.
And do vote, please. There is evidence it does your body good.
Early voting in Houston’s runoff elections ended Tuesday with 115,204 ballots cast in Harris County, producing a higher turnout than the first round despite two fewer days to visit the polls.
Keir Murray points out that the H- Town electorate is, demographically if not almost precisely, the same good citizens who voted last month (visit the Tweet thread for the comparison).
Of City early voters through 12/9:— Keir Murray (@houtopia) December 10, 2019
35% had a Republican score
52% had a Democratic score
10% were in the middle
3% unknown
5/7
It's remarkable how closely this matches this morning's fresh poll. And as we know, these/those folks nearly put Mayor Sly back in without this pesky runoff, gave the purplish District C two Democrats to choose from (see below), and will -- hopefully -- sweep out the Kubosh/Dolcefino/Dick conservo-trash from Council's At Large seats.
I'm not going to spend my holiday Saturday evening refreshing harrisvotes.com for late-arriving election returns, and I may not even Tweet much about them depending on the quantity of alcohol imbibed. Likewise I encourage you to go forth and make merry this weekend, and check your favorite source for the final results on Sunday morning.
Onward to the new decade.
There will be amusing developments on the right, and far right, and extremely far right (and fascist right and OMG GOP WTF right) in this snapshot, as I bounce around from city council to the statehouse, Congressional, county commissioner, and time-travel to the past and then back to the present day. So if this post reads disjointedly ... well, strap in and enjoy the ride.
Update: For the record, I posted here in advance of Hooks, so if anybody took inspiration from somewhere, it was him from me.
The 2020 field has some real... characters. Also:— Forrest Wilder (@Forrest4Trees) December 10, 2019
—Beth Van Duyne, former Irving mayor who took on Shariah courts and "clock boy"
—Troy Nehls, former sheriff who threatened to charge a woman over her "Fuck Trump" sticker
—Apostle Claver of "MLK was a Republican" fame https://t.co/ufNt2tOhqk
It is my belief that the further starboard the conservatives move, so go the Donks in trying to appeal to the so-called centrists, which at this point are essentially Republicans who tolerate gays and abortion. I'm so old I can remember the phrase "I'm a social liberal and a fiscal conservative". The GOP-ers who allegedly gave a large, steaming shit about federal government deficit spending, i.e. the Tea Party, seem to have gone extinct.
Now you might prefer to call these folks 'ticket-splitters', because what they believe and who they vote for may not be in perfect alignment. Here's some evidence.
Interesting point in this @zachdespart story, via data from @houtopia: though Radack won re-election by 15% in 2016, @BetoORourke beat @tedcruz by 4% in Precinct 3 last year. Also, Clinton won the precinct over Trump in '16. https://t.co/5RPPbdqKbS— Jasper Scherer (@jaspscherer) December 10, 2019
Hillary Republicans in west Houston just couldn't stretch to Jenifer Rene Pool four years ago. Likewise in 2018 for Beto/Dan Crenshaw voters. (Crenshaw has drawn a better D challenger than 2018's inept Todd Litton, but EyePatch's heavy national following thanks to his SNL appearance makes him a more formidable obstacle.) With respect to Harris County Precinct 3, and evolving electorate aside, it may be an easier flip if next spring's primaries give us a fall match between, say, Brenda Stardig and Kristi Thibault or Morris Overstreet. We'll wait and see.
The African American dynamic in the Democratic primary should prove captivating.
-- Jerry Davis v. Harold Dutton (HD-142)
-- Jolanda Jones v. Ann Bennett (Harris County Tax Assessor/Collector)
-- Ashton Woods v. Shawn Thierry (HD-146)
It isn't quite accurate to describe these races as 'progressive challengers to (slightly more) conservative incumbents'. Of the three, Dutton is the most endangered.
Big race here: Houston City Councilmember Jerry Davis and teacher Natasha Ruiz running in Dem. primary against incumbent state Rep. Harold Dutton Jr.— Jacob Carpenter (@ChronJacob) December 10, 2019
Dutton is under fire from some in Houston ISD for role in bill putting HISD under state takeover threat. https://t.co/DXqzaYA0q7
Manny Fernandez for the New York Times profiled Dutton and his quandary. <<-- This is the best read in this post, particularly for those who have missed the controversy.
I made no recommendations on whom to vote for in HISD races in 2019 because of the state's imminent takeover. I don't have children or grandchildren in the school system; my expectation for these representatives of the public trust is that their decision-making, such as spending taxpayer money, won't be crooked or stupid. That very low bar has rarely been cleared. So I really have no idea as to whether Greg Abbott's appointees will do any better, but despite our governor's own long-standing reputation for rock-bottom ethical conduct, it seems difficult to project that he/they might do worse. Some of us understand that Abbott is dippin' in the koolaid that he doesn't know the flavor, and it's a crine-ass shame that he gets the chance to do so. HISD is an uber-clusterf, and Dutton is likely to be the fall guy for it. And probably not the last one.
I got a lot more but let me stop with two HTX city council runoff races that get decided this Saturday. First, from nonsequiteuse. She mad again, y'all.
Here's the critical difference between @AbbieKamin & @Kennedy4Houston - and why I'm supporting @AbbieKamin for #HouCouncil District C. A thread on gun safety. 1/7— Andrea (@nonsequiteuse) December 1, 2019
I get it, Andrea, but I just see it more as a distinction without much of a difference than you. And I actually prefer Abbie Kamin's position on guns more than I do Shelley Kennedy's. It's not cool that Kennedy called Kamin's stance "leftist" and "wants to take away" guns, for sure. And donating to Bill King smells bad too, although there are a lot of voters who think Sylvester Turner is nothing but the lesser of two evils *raises hand*.
This contest has the Democratic establishment and progressive organizations split all over, with Kennedy claiming, as nonseq has noted, a good bit of conservative support. Kennedy got my recommendation to District C's voters due to her closer-to-the-people grassroots effort, including some activist Democrats I respect. That's compared with Kamin's large fundraising apparatus and establishment backing, something I find myself increasingly leery of. I don't see any losers here; Kamin will make a fine CM if she prevails.
And if hindsight from four years in the future reveals I made the wrong call here, then I probably made a bigger mistake endorsing Edward Pollard over Sandra Rodriguez, based on his bragging about being a conservative Democrat. I hate that shit.
Pollard pushes a centrist message -- “That pothole could care less whether you’re a Democrat or Republican” -- and touts endorsements from the Houston Police Officers Union, business groups like the Houston Realty Breakfast Coalition and industry groups representing city contractors, engineers and Realtors.
[...]
Rodriguez stresses the need to engage new immigrants and improve the district’s poor civic engagement, and is backed by SEIU Texas and other labor groups, the Texas Organizing Project, the Houston GLBT Political Caucus, and a host of Democratic politicians at the federal, state and local level.“I just want to do the work. I’ve been doing the work for 20 years, I enjoy what I do, and if this will help me push policies and move our district forward in Southwest Houston, to change the image -- because you hear Sharpstown, Gulfton, Westwood, you think crime, you think prostitution, all the negativity -- if this will help me serve the district, then I’ll run. That was the ultimate decision-maker.”
She's exactly the kind of candidate I like, and Pollard, as it turns out, is not. Let this be a lesson to me that more due diligence is necessary over the course of the next 90 or so days. If you still can in District J, vote for Ms. Rodriguez. Mea maxima culpa.
And do vote, please. There is evidence it does your body good.
Monday, December 09, 2019
The Weekly Filing Deadline Wrangle
The Texas Progressive Alliance is watching the 2020 spring ballot filings on today's deadline, as well as the turnout and trends in the ongoing Houston city and educational runoff elections' early voting period (Election Day is Saturday).
There's also the sixth Dem presidential debate happening in nine days, so it's a busy time for those of us who are political junkies.
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Here's the round-up of the best blog posts, Tweets, and lefty news about and around Texas, our Texas from last week. First, TXElects.
Noted by Ballot Access News, the state has appealed the ruling it lost in Dikeman v. Hughs. The law at issue compels minor party candidates to pay a fee to run for office; it was struck down by a lower court a week ago. And in filing developments ...
Progress Texas also has a list of candidates who've placed their names on the March 2020 Democratic primary ballot. Kuff looked at the initial Congressional race ratings in Texas. Howie Klein at Down With Tyranny profiled TX-25 hopeful Heidi Sloan. And Jeremy Wallace at the HouChron examined the race to replace retiring Cong. Pete Olson in TX-22, with twelve Republicans aiming to be the nominee. (In 2018, Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni almost knocked off Olson. Kulkarni is running again, along with Pearland city council member Derrick Reed, and possibly one other Democrat filing later today.) The statehouse district in the same Fort Bend County area just lost its Republican representative due to his unforced racial error, underscoring the shifting political sands in the nation's most ethnically diverse region.
PDiddie at Brains and Eggs had his regular weekly update on the Democrats running for the White House. Mike Bloomberg made an appearance at the Texas Dems' quarterly meeting on Saturday.
Texas Monthly will be doing a regular political roundup.
SocraticGadfly collected all the huzzahs and handsprings for the Texas Tribune turning 10, and offers up a pretty contrarian take.
Meredith Lawrence of the Dallas Observer reports on the sad state of affairs with refugee asylum.
Robert Rivard at his self-titled Report urges the University of Incarnate Word to settle the Cameron Redus wrongful death case.
And here's some environmental developments.
Axios reports that the rural healthcare crisis is costing lives, a story the Texas Observer has recently been covering extensively.
Closing this Wrangle with some lighter news ...
Americans of certain age are mourning the passing of Carroll Spinney, who brought Big Bird and Oscar the Grouch to life for Sesame Street for nearly fifty years. And Mean Green Cougar Red posted an appreciation of the children show's countercultural cartoons.
Paradise in Hell is here for the blood red White House Christmas trees.
Alice Embree at The Rag Blog posted about Houston's iconic '60s-'70s underground newspaper, Space City!, getting new digital life. And there will be a fundraiser for TeXchromosome this coming Saturday at the Peace House Farm in Austin, with music, a flea market, and silent auction.
Last, Jessica Huseman, ProPublica's Texan at large, emphatically explains why she loves Texas.
3,443 ballots were cast today, for a total of 82,419 votes during the Early Voting period.— Harris County Clerk (@HarrisVotes) December 9, 2019
Polls are open Monday and Tuesday from 7AM - 7PM. To find a polling location text VOTE to 833-937-0700 or visit https://t.co/8qx75WEFi7. pic.twitter.com/wfpL332wiX
There's also the sixth Dem presidential debate happening in nine days, so it's a busy time for those of us who are political junkies.
Here's the round-up of the best blog posts, Tweets, and lefty news about and around Texas, our Texas from last week. First, TXElects.
(Today) is the deadline for candidates to file for a spot on the March 3 primary ballot as a Democrat or Republican, or to be eligible to receive the nomination of the Green or Libertarian Parties at their conventions. It is also the deadline for candidates to file to run under the banner of a political party not currently having ballot access.
It will take at more than a week to determine with certainty all of the candidates who filed and were certified to be on the ballot. County parties have until December 17 to electronically submit their candidate rosters to the Secretary of State, and state parties have a December 18 deadline. Candidates seeking to have their names removed from the ballot must withdraw by Tuesday.
There are still ways to reach the ballot if a candidate fails to file by the close of business Monday. There may be chances for partisan candidates to file past the December 9 deadline in specific cases of vacancies or the withdrawal of the lone candidate. Independent candidates must file declarations of intent to run by December 9. Write-in candidates must file their declarations of candidacy by August 17, 2020.
Noted by Ballot Access News, the state has appealed the ruling it lost in Dikeman v. Hughs. The law at issue compels minor party candidates to pay a fee to run for office; it was struck down by a lower court a week ago. And in filing developments ...
Filing update in The Blast tonight: Just about all Texas House members who were expected to run again have now filed for reelection. Deadline is 6 p.m. Monday. #txlege pic.twitter.com/Bnr9KhTELZ— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) December 7, 2019
Progress Texas also has a list of candidates who've placed their names on the March 2020 Democratic primary ballot. Kuff looked at the initial Congressional race ratings in Texas. Howie Klein at Down With Tyranny profiled TX-25 hopeful Heidi Sloan. And Jeremy Wallace at the HouChron examined the race to replace retiring Cong. Pete Olson in TX-22, with twelve Republicans aiming to be the nominee. (In 2018, Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni almost knocked off Olson. Kulkarni is running again, along with Pearland city council member Derrick Reed, and possibly one other Democrat filing later today.) The statehouse district in the same Fort Bend County area just lost its Republican representative due to his unforced racial error, underscoring the shifting political sands in the nation's most ethnically diverse region.
PDiddie at Brains and Eggs had his regular weekly update on the Democrats running for the White House. Mike Bloomberg made an appearance at the Texas Dems' quarterly meeting on Saturday.
Honored to address Texas Democratic leaders today. We've got a great shot to turn Texas blue in 2020. pic.twitter.com/b5vgBi2dDL— Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) December 7, 2019
Texas Monthly will be doing a regular political roundup.
Every Thursday, starting today, we’ll be publishing Bull Session, a roundup of the political odds and ends of the week, penning them all into one overstuffed corral.@seanoneal's first foray features Rick Perry, Chip Roy, Beto, and morehttps://t.co/MxKoXh9Uoo— Forrest Wilder (@Forrest4Trees) December 5, 2019
SocraticGadfly collected all the huzzahs and handsprings for the Texas Tribune turning 10, and offers up a pretty contrarian take.
Meredith Lawrence of the Dallas Observer reports on the sad state of affairs with refugee asylum.
The American Civil Liberties Union on Thursday filed a lawsuit to stop two immigration pilot programs that the group alleges strips asylum seekers of their legal rights and instead fast-track them for deportation back to violent countries. https://t.co/nzVElkDhkE— Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) December 6, 2019
ICE has been at the forefront of the Trump administration's border crackdown. And now it turns out they had help from a well-connected consulting firm.— Texas Standard (@TexasStandard) December 5, 2019
We’ll hear from @i_m_m about his investigative report for @propublica and @nytimes: https://t.co/HtShwvABC8 pic.twitter.com/LsiJuLrhy8
Robert Rivard at his self-titled Report urges the University of Incarnate Word to settle the Cameron Redus wrongful death case.
And here's some environmental developments.
The EPA estimates that 177 million Americans live near high-risk facilities that store or use potentially dangerous chemicals.— Texas Observer (@TexasObserver) December 9, 2019
The Trump administration just rolled back safety rules that could make people in proximity to such facilities safer.https://t.co/rewubbqWQy
A new plan from the Trump administration would open national forests in Texas to more oil and gas drilling. https://t.co/H0e2Lodffp— Texas Standard (@TexasStandard) December 8, 2019
Axios reports that the rural healthcare crisis is costing lives, a story the Texas Observer has recently been covering extensively.
Under Texas law, nurse practitioners and physician assistants can render medical services under the supervision of a licensed physician.— Texas Observer (@TexasObserver) December 7, 2019
Some advocates suggest loosening those restrictions to help combat Texas’ rural health care crisis. https://t.co/YAmFsYRyQe
Closing this Wrangle with some lighter news ...
Americans of certain age are mourning the passing of Carroll Spinney, who brought Big Bird and Oscar the Grouch to life for Sesame Street for nearly fifty years. And Mean Green Cougar Red posted an appreciation of the children show's countercultural cartoons.
Paradise in Hell is here for the blood red White House Christmas trees.
Alice Embree at The Rag Blog posted about Houston's iconic '60s-'70s underground newspaper, Space City!, getting new digital life. And there will be a fundraiser for TeXchromosome this coming Saturday at the Peace House Farm in Austin, with music, a flea market, and silent auction.
Last, Jessica Huseman, ProPublica's Texan at large, emphatically explains why she loves Texas.
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