Thursday, September 19, 2024

A Not-Too-Early Electoral College Observation


Not a forecast; it IS too early for that. Not a prediction, either.

Here's 270 To Win's map, something we'll all be playing with as the time draws nigh (and please note that its snapshot reflects the date of this post, so click over and see if it's changed if you're reading this after today). This one isn't interactive.



Note the states in grey considered toss-ups: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, from R to L, Eastern to Western time zones.

Play with this next map to your satisfaction (it should be interactive). I present my scenario and explanatory rationale below.



So if I were forecasting or predicting it would go something like this ...

I believe that the share of the third party vote in PA, GA, and MI -- between Jill Stein, Claudia de la Cruz, Cornel West, Joseph Kishore, Jasmine Sherman, Chase Oliver, Randall Terry and a few others -- will be just enough to tip the scales to Trump in those states. No, it's not siphoning; votes are not zero-sum because votes are earned. The primary factor in MI will be the Muslim American vote which appears to be breaking for Stein. From what I'm reading I think Harris' ground effort in NC wins there. Walz nets WI for the Blues.

That leaves 17 electoral votes -- AZ and NV -- needed to give Kamala 269, which throws the presidency into the House. Where Trump is chosen.

So if you're suddenly feeling dyspeptic ... I understand. Anxiety can be reduced by taking action. 'Action' is not defined as "attacking Jill Stein and the Green Party on Twitter".

If I or the polling used to arrive at the consensus forecast employed by 270 To Win are wrong -- or if circumstances alter the future -- you still have the ability to influence the outcome by a variety of effective methods of your choosing. Again, the least effective way would be posting multiple hashtags on social media.

Best of luck to your team. Enjoy your weekend. I'll have toons on Sunday mocking the duopoly, the political system, our appalling times, and some other social commentary.

Like always. It's what I do here.
Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Sunday 'Animal Farm' Funnies


Mostly domesticated, some feral.


"JD Vance ate my dog; Elon Musk ate my cat. Will Trump or Harris address this important issue?" I'm guessing 'sooner than they'll be addressing school shootings'.
I wasn't finished with the pets yet (yes, cows are).
So I thought that the debate had a little of everything weird beyond kitties and puppies on Hannibal Lecter's menu: illegal migrants receiving transgender healthcare in prison, who hated Israel the most, Kamala exposed as a Marxist (boy, do I wish) and my personal favorite, "concepts of a plan".

Donald would have instantly fired any apprentice for saying that to him. KHive and company have every right to feel joyful in the wake of that debacle. But it may have been Taylor Swift that won the post-debate spin.


With all this social media AI chaos, who needs Russian meddling? Oh yeah, maybe Kamala.


The vice president may have an electoral college problem in some swing states with the Muslim American/anti-genocide vote. It's interesting that both AOC and Keith Ellison were employed as attack dogs recently to tag-team Jill Stein. Black American podcaster Angela Rye also took her swings. Using the 'all publicity is good' analogy, the fact that the topics trended all week long introduced a lot of people to the Green Party. Something to monitor.


But the constant focus by corporate media on the uniparty options, its attendant performative displays, and the sideshow issues of no substance -- national head-to-head polling, funds raised, all the assorted he said/she said bullshit -- suggests this awful state of affairs seems to be only the 2024 cycle's last toxicity endurance contest. Thank Jeebus more of us are wising up and opting out.

This country's gone to the dogs. Can we go back to the zoo?
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)