Watched neither the #DemTownHall nor the Nevada GOP caucus returns

There don't seem to be any surprises ... if you don't count Hillary's added condition of releasing transcripts of her Wall Street speeches 'if the Republicans do' a surprise.

Is it really any surprise so many people deem her untrustworthy?

Democrats like Hillary (well, at least Democrats over the age of 50 like her), but that's pretty much it.  Outside of AARP-eligible blue partisans, Hillary is strongly disliked and disbelieved.  Even Ted Cruz scores better.  Let's establish that she can win the nomination with the solid support of middle-aged and senior Democrats, but that is not a demographic that can -- all by itself -- take the White House.

The prevailing sentiment in 2016 is fairly clear: turnout is skewing downward, and the majority of Republican -- and nearly 50% of Democratic -- voters and caucus-goers are choosing the anti-establishment candidate.  The anti-insider vote is showing up in far larger numbers than the status quo, incrementalist caucus.

So what are Democrats going to do?  Run the ultimate insider establishment figure against the ultimate anti-establishment candidate.  Clinton owns all the baggage that the ruling class is carrying in this cycle's zeitgeist.

Seems very dangerous.

What happens if the judge in her e-mail investigation starts ordering subpoenas?

A federal judge ruled on Tuesday that U.S. State Department officials and aides to Hillary Clinton should be questioned under oath about whether the former secretary of state's use of a private email system was an effort to skirt open records laws.

The ruling by U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan is likely to add to the uncertainty hovering over Clinton, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the November U.S. presidential election, about the legal consequences of her decision to exclusively use a private email server in her New York home for her government work.

More from CNN.  For the record, that judge was appointed by Bill Clinton.  Hillary could be severely damaged goods if things keep going south for her on the e-mail matter.

Are these personal attacks or are they factual observations?  Far too many Clinton supporters believe the former, in fact take them on as personal attacks to themselves.  So they respond with shit pulled out of their ass.  Voter turnout -- as referenced a couple of days ago -- is a universal Democratic problem.  Charles and the Chronic have more on lagging voter participation.

Update: If you'd rather believe that limp Democratic voter turnout is not going to be a problem, Jeff Stein at Vox is there for you with the comforter.

-- Trump sails in Nevada, Cruz and Rubio battle to a draw over second place.  The spin is that's a loss for both of them.  Duh.

The Republicans are streaming into town for tomorrow night's debate.  Hide the children.

Much of the Republican presidential field is set to appear in the Bayou City on Wednesday, ahead of their debate the following day at the University of Houston.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will hold a 1 p.m. rally at Mach Industrial Group, in the 6100 block of Fulton. 

Wednesday evening, Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are scheduled to speak at the Harris County Republican Party's Lincoln-Reagan dinner, which Gov. Greg Abbott also is expected to attend. 

The reception at the Bayou City Event Center in southwest Houston is set to begin at 6 p.m. 

Two hours later, a candidate town hall with Megyn Kelly, filmed in Houston, is scheduled to air on Fox News. Cruz, Carson, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich have confirmed their participation, though real estate mogul Donald Trump will not be joining, according to CNN.  

Rubio also has organized a 4:30 p.m. rally at Houston Marriott South, near Hobby Airport. 

I have a media credential for the set-to Thursday evening and an invitation to Chris Cuomo's party at an undisclosed location.  Cuomo, for the record, is a jackass.  He's setting the stage for a Cabinet appointment, or for his brother's run for president in 2020 ... when Clinton loses in November.

That won't stop me from eating his food, drinking his whiskey, and screwing his women (the latter only figuratively speaking).

UT/TexTrib poll: Clinton 54, Sanders 44

A consistent pattern: the numbers close up as Election Day approaches.

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Bernie Sanders has narrowed considerably in Texas but remains in the double digits among the state’s likely Democratic primary voters, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. 

[...] 

“This race is narrowing, but not narrowing in a way for the lines to actually cross — especially in Texas,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin and the poll’s co-director. Clinton will win, he said, but the question mark, is the state’s Hispanic voters and their relatively low propensity to vote. “This will be a double-digit race, but I don’t think it’s going to be a 20-point race.”

Mrs. Diddie reported seeing four Clinton teevee spots during the course of last evening, all the same, very positive: one on MSNBC and three on the Travel Channel.  Like Nevada, her campaign is going to leave it all on the field.

“It’s her state to lose,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. “Whether this race is 10 points or 18 points rests almost entirely on your opinion of whether Hispanics are going to turn up to vote.”

The Adrian Garcia/Gene Green Congressional 29th race takes on added significance in this light.  Houston's East End turnout in EV locations might be a barometer, but to this point Harris County turnout overall for Democrats is underwhelming.  That may hurt Garcia but it probably won't damage Clinton; voting in the RGV is what to watch for.  As Charles has provided and noted, Texas Democratic votes in the fifteen largest counties (with the exception of Hidalgo) is down about 50% from 2008, but way ahead, almost double that of 2012.  There are no tea leaves to read in this data, beyond what I mentioned yesterday.

Update: Stace has some observations and a suggestion for the Sanders campaign.

For Texas Republicans, Ted Cruz still holds a 37-29 lead over Donald Trump, but it might not matter if he finishes first.  Second place should be enough for Trump to declare victory.

"If he (Cruz) can't win Texas, where does he win?" asked Trinity University political scientist David Crockett, who counted Trump's primary victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina as carrying more weight than Cruz's win in the Iowa caucuses. 

"Caucuses are weird animals," said Crockett, pointing out that they require energy and a big commitment from voters. "Most of the contests are primaries, and Trump has won the first two, in both cases by double digits. That's a recipe for victory in the end if that dynamic doesn't change." 

With Texas considered not only a must-win but a must-win-big state for Cruz, Republicans concerned about Trump's rise are looking closely at the Lone Star State. 

"Trump's got momentum. He's got a lot of support. He could do well in Texas," said Republican consultant Brendan Steinhauser. "Personally, I'm worried about it. I think a lot of Republicans are."

Fear is a primary motivator for conservatives, after all.  To that end, I have seen much discussion among my Republican friends and family about moving to Marco Rubio.  The establishment is also pushing all in on The Robot.  If Rubio closes the gap between himself and the two Texas front-runners, that will be the story next Tuesday night.

Let's stand back and see if things get interesting.  At the moment, they're not.