Think Progress also has a comprehensive scorecard.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
The DeLay/Abramoff Scandal Center
Think Progress also has a comprehensive scorecard.
Monday, January 02, 2006
Crunching the Governor's race numbers
For openers, let's presume that Kinky Friedman can draw 10% of the November vote total. Not far-fetched; he's probably good for as much as 15%. Give Chris Bell (or Bob Gammage) somewhere between the 37% John Kerry pulled in 2004, and the 40% Tony Sanchez got in 2002.
At mimimum that's 47%, leaving 53% for Perry and Strayhorn to split. If Strayhorn can draw 17%, then a Democrat is elected Governor.
Get generous and give Kinky 13% and Bell or Gammage 40% -- achievable numbers, but probably at the upper end of expectations -- and the margin of defeat for Perry shrivels to 8% (the percentage of Strayhorn votes that keeps Goodhair from winning).
I think Carole can conceivably draw 20%, and if Bell/Gammage were to only get 35% and Kinky 11%, Rick Perry still loses with his 34%. The most accurate assessment at the end of this day is that Kinky will get whatever he gets, as will the Democratic nominee; the impact of Strayhorn on Perry's numbers is the unknown variable. The wild card.
I think it's also safe to say that Bell and Gammage will begin a spirited 60-day campaign starting tomorrow, and that Perry and Strayhorn will tear the hide off each other once she's officially on the ballot, sometime in April.
I would also imagine that the pollsters -- Zogby, Gallup, et. al. -- are gearing up for big business here in Deep-In-The-Hearta.
Update (1/3/06): Jack adds credibility to the theory, and has some advice for the Bell campaign.
Update #2 (1/4/06): This guy gets it:
I'm betting Perry will have a tough time winning in a field of four. Dems who would have voted for Kinky in a field of three, might vote for a Dem in a field of four under the premise of "hey, we could win this thing." (This provides a direct answer to Kinky's campaign slogan "Kinky, Why the Hell Not?"). If anyone besides Perry wins, it'll mean a shakeup of the Texas Republican Party. If CKS wins, she'll let some moderates back into the Rebublican ballgame, and will undercut the national right wing agenda from within its home base. If CKS doesn't win, it'll likely mean a further purge of moderates from within the Republican Party -- which will only lead to further independent challenges from within the party. Whatever you think of CKS, just be glad she kicked Perry in the groin. It won't be the last time, either. And Kinky's entry into the race will guarantee that whatever happens to the Republican Party in Texas will be witnessed, live, across the nation.
And this guy doesn't.
Carole Scottie's-Mom wants Gov. MoFo out of Austin as badly as we do
Here's how this hits me:
-- as my headline implies, Grandma dislikes Goodhair just as much as the rest of us who aren't fundamentalist Republicans. She wants him gone, and she makes that possibility more likely. This is a good thing.
-- the funding for alternative gubernatorial candidates just got cut a little thinner, which doesn't help Chris Bell or Bob Gammage. They are now evaluated on the basis of whether they can outpoll Carole, which we all are dying to find out ASAP. Not good for our side.
-- the next governor of Texas will be elected with a plurality of the vote, probably something on the order of 40%, maybe less. Not really a good thing, no matter who it is.
-- from now until November, the mud will be slung and the fur will fly in what is bound to be the most entertaining political contest in memory. Definitely a fun thing, and probably a good one as well.
Lots more to this development, and I'll update this post with other takes as I find them.
Update: Bell's campaign thinks it's a good thing for them:
If Chris Bell holds onto the 37% that voted for John Kerry and the 40% that voted for Tony Sanchez, he wins.
Kuffner and I agree on the money:
What scares me is the possibility that Strayhorn's trail-lawyer benefactors will continue to throw their money at her for the rest of the campaign. Without that kind of financial support, I fear that Bell or Bob Gammage will get squeezed out monetarily. Strayhorn already has a bunch of cash, and Kinky Friedman says he's got close to a million bucks. Where is the Democratic candidate going to get campaign funding amid all that?
Greg is in full-dweeb mode. BOR offers some additional financial speculation.
Governor Adios MoFo kicks off his ad campaign during the Cotton Bowl
Gov. Rick Perry will kick off the 2006 campaign season with a 30-second television ad airing during today's Cotton Bowl matchup between Texas Tech and Alabama.
The ad will debut just hours after Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn announces whether she will challenge Perry in the March Republican primary or run for the office as an independent.
I've stayed away from saying anything about One Weird Grandma's machinations, and we'll find out today what's up with her anyway. But the game's just about to start as I type this, so I don't want you to miss a minute of the action:
"Our people are compassionate, our visions bold, our values strong. The best is yet to come," Perry says in the ad, which also will run during Wednesday's Rose Bowl, when Texas will take on Southern California for the college football national championship. "I'm proud of Texas. How 'bout you?"
I'm real proud of my state, Governor, thanks for asking. I'm pretty much done with you and the Republicans screwing it up, also.
Perry campaign spokesman Robert Black said the ads will run during a time when Texans are particularly proud of their state — and two of its athletic teams.
"There will be some in this campaign who will try to make Texans believe that Texas is little more than a third-world country," Black said. "But Gov. Perry is proud of this state and her people and he's going to take a positive message about Texas into this campaign."
Now that's actually a pretty good collective shot at all of your opponents at once. Cast the challengers who point out your miserable failures as "naysayers". Where have we heard that before?
Boy, do I look forward to the revisionist history -- err, 'positive message about Texas' Governor Goodhair brings.
What a jackass (apologies to good donkeys everywhere). Rick Perry, Aggie cheerleader, trying to piggyback on the success of the Texas Longhorns and Texas Tech Red Raiders by association. That's a gravy-trainer of the slimiest order. But what did you expect?
Sunday, January 01, 2006
DOJ: against domestic spying (before they for it)
The top deputy to then-Attorney General John Ashcroft refused two years ago to approve important parts of the secret program that allows domestic eavesdropping without warrants, prompting two leading White House aides to try to win the needed approval from Mr. Ashcroft himself while he was hospitalized after a gall bladder operation, according to officials knowledgeable about the episode.
"The top deputy" would be James Comey, the same guy who appointed Patrick Fitzgerald to investigate the Plame leak, and who left the Justice Department last August to become the general counsel of mega-defense contractor Lockheed Martin.
But the sinister/truly comical part is the visual of Attorney General Abu Gonzo and Bush chief of staff Andy "Deck of" Card(s) standing over the hospital bed of John "Holy Crisco" Ashcroft and trying to get him to sign off on the eavesdropping.
Daily Kos had it first, and asks the right questions: did Ashcroft commit perjury, and did the President also lie to the American people when he said:
... For years, law enforcement used so-called roving wire taps to investigate organized crime. You see, what that meant is if you got a wire tap by court order-and, by the way, everything you hear about requires court order, requires there to be permission from a FISA court, for example.
'Everything we hear about'. What about the things you're not telling us, Mr. President?
And then there's this, under the header "Fawn Hall Republicans", which refers to Oliver North's comely shredding accomplice during the Reagan administration's Iran-Contra scandal, and her testimony during the Congressional hearings that followed:
(T)here were "times when you have to go above the written law."
Just go read the whole piece, as it goes into detail about how "Big Time" Dick Cheney has reassembled a powerful executive office that had been disarmed after the abuses of Watergate.
Update: From Newsweek ...
On one day in the spring of 2004, White House chief of staff Andy Card and the then White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales made a bedside visit to John Ashcroft, attorney general at the time, who was stricken with a rare and painful pancreatic disease, to try—without success—to get him to reverse his deputy, Acting Attorney General James Comey, who was balking at the warrantless eavesdropping. Miffed that Comey, a straitlaced, by-the-book former U.S. attorney from New York, was not a "team player" on this and other issues, President George W. Bush dubbed him with a derisive nickname, "Cuomo," after Mario Cuomo, the New York governor who vacillated over running for president in the 1980s. (The White House denies this; Comey declined to comment.)
Update #2: georgia10 elaborates.
Saturday, December 31, 2005
Inside the DeLay machine
The U.S. Family Network, a public advocacy group that operated in the 1990s with close ties to Rep. Tom DeLay and claimed to be a nationwide grass-roots organization, was funded almost entirely by corporations linked to embattled lobbyist Jack Abramoff, according to tax records and former associates of the group.
During its five-year existence, the U.S. Family Network raised $2.5 million but kept its donor list secret. The list, obtained by The Washington Post, shows that $1 million of its revenue came in a single 1998 check from a now-defunct London law firm whose former partners would not identify the money's origins.
Two former associates of Edwin A. Buckham, the congressman's former chief of staff and the organizer of the U.S. Family Network, said Buckham told them the funds came from Russian oil and gas executives. Abramoff had been working closely with two such Russian energy executives on their Washington agenda, and the lobbyist and Buckham had helped organize a 1997 Moscow visit by DeLay (R-Tex.).
The former president of the U.S. Family Network said Buckham told him that Russians contributed $1 million to the group in 1998 specifically to influence DeLay's vote on legislation the International Monetary Fund needed to finance a bailout of the collapsing Russian economy.
...
Whatever the real motive for the contribution of $1 million -- a sum not prohibited by law but extraordinary for a small, nonprofit group -- the steady stream of corporate payments detailed on the donor list makes it clear that Abramoff's long-standing alliance with DeLay was sealed by a much more extensive web of financial ties than previously known.
And there's a whole lot more at the link, including how DeLay's wife went on the payroll, how the cabal purchased a townhouse and went into contortions to wriggle around the financial and disclosure rules, and so on and so on.
This is another example of Tom DeLay's personal hypocrisy, as demonstrated in his own words, and another reason why he's a dead man walking (politically speaking only, of course -- Hello, NSA).
Because if Ronnie Earle can't nail him, Jack Abramoff will.
Update: More details about the DeLay/Abramoff/Russian connection from MSNBC, here.
Update#2: Josh Marshall summarizes.
Friday, December 30, 2005
Ben Grant for Lt. Governor
Marshall resident and attorney Ben Z. Grant on Thursday announced he will be a candidate for Texas Lieutenant Governor in the March Democratic primary.
Grant, 65, a former state representative who also served 17 years as justice of the Sixth Court of Appeals in Texarkana, said he is looking forward to the statewide race.
...
Grant retired from the Sixth Court of Criminal Appeals when his term ended in 2002. He served as a state representative from 1971 until 1981.Grant was also a district judge for the 71st Judicial District Court in Harrison County and was appointed to the court of appeals in 1985 by then-Gov. Mark White. He said he spent 37 years in government, starting his career as a school teacher.
Grant has also been a columnist for the M N-M, giving them the scoop here. If he gets some competition in the primary, we won't know about it until the end of the filing period, which is next Monday.
Handicapping 2005 for 2008's prospective candidates
Another Virginian, George Allen, tops the Republican list with Haley Barbour (!?) and then John McCain in third, mostly on the basis of how he manages to alienate the base and burnish his independent credentials at the same time. Dr. Bill Frist had the worst year among all contenders, and the jury's still out on Chuck Hagel and Mitt Romney. Cillezza rates Arkansas Republican governor Mike Huckabee as a darkhorse on the order of New Mexico's Bill Richardson on the Democratic side.
He gives the chances of Condi Rice running for president the same odds he gives Al Gore, about zero. And makes no mention of Dick Cheney standing before the voters again.
Ahahahahaha.
Seriously, though, I think he's about right on all of these, and particularly if sad sacks like Allen and Barbour enter 2006 as the GOP pols with the most momentum, then all I can say is "heh."
Thursday, December 29, 2005
A great week for Texas progressives on Texas radio
Listen live if you're in San Antonio on KTSA AM 550 or stream it live by clicking here.
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
Rick Causey (Enron head beancounter) flips
Enron's former chief accounting officer, Richard Causey, has struck a plea bargain with federal prosecutors and will avoid going to trial with the fallen energy company's two top executives, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. ...
Causey, 45, agreed to testify against his former bosses, Enron Corp. founder Kenneth Lay and former CEO Jeffrey Skilling, in exchange for a much lesser prison sentence than he would receive if convicted on all counts. The trial is scheduled to begin next month, but a delay is considered likely since defense attorneys would want more time to prepare for the government's new witness.Causey is charged with fraud, conspiracy, insider trading, lying to auditors and money laundering for allegedly knowing about or participating in a series of schemes to fool investors into believing Enron was financially healthy. The company imploded in late 2001 amid disclosures of complicated financing schemes that gave the appearance of success.
As indicated, the trials of Lay and Skilling will likely be postponed while their lawyers scheme a strategy to attack Causey, who is now a hostile witness. Causey ranks higher on the totem pole than Fastow, was an insider to the boardroom where Lay and Skilling managed the company, and is without the stain of self-enrichment that accompanies Andy Fastow:
Causey could be more damaging to Lay and Skilling than former Enron finance chief Andrew Fastow, who joined the government's cadre of cooperating witnesses when he pleaded guilty to two counts of conspiracy in January 2004. Unlike his former peer, Causey didn't skim millions of dollars for himself from shady deals and therefore would bring less baggage to the witness stand."While they were preparing to deal with Fastow, Causey is another matter," said Robert Mintz, a former federal prosecutor. "Fastow has been so demonized by the books and media accounts of the Enron collapse that he is an enticing target for the defense teams."
And finally, for the trivia buffs:
Causey would become the 16th ex-Enron executive to plead guilty and agree to cooperate with the government.
Could it be more embarrassment for the Republicans in the new year as the Enron thieves turn on each other?
DVO and DFA
David Van Os needs your help in securing the endorsement of his campaign for Texas Attorney General from the good folks at Democracy for America.
The seal of approval from DFA is a coveted one in progressive circles, and there’s no candidate who is more deserving. So click here, and write a few words as to why you think he merits their endorsement.
Don’t have the words? Don’t know the man well enough to do so? Let me help you with that.
Van Os has been fighting the Bush regime long before he went to Florida in 2000 to contest the recount in Bush v. Gore. He’s been fighting for working men and women long before he was the general counsel for the Texas AFL-CIO. He fought against the illegal and immoral war in Iraq way before he went to Camp Casey this summer. He’s been a warrior for economic and social justice for the people of Texas all of his life. You can read more about his life here, but you can also take my word for it. David Van Os walks the walk.
In 2004, Van Os ran for a seat on the Texas Supreme Court because he wanted to take that court back from the mega-corporations which have it bought, paid for, and tucked in their vest pockets. At a time when the PATRIOT Act was our biggest concern, he chose to fight to restore the constitutional checks and balances that protect the rights and liberties of all Texans.
He is running for the office of Texas Attorney General in 2006 in order to carry the same fight to a new front. Texas is under withering assault by swarms of corrupt Republicans lining their pockets with the millions of dollars flowing from ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco and the other big oil companies, from State Farm and Allstate and the other insurance companies, and all of the other assorted lobbyists and mouthpieces of greed. A strong attorney general in Austin, vested with the power inherent in the Texas Constitution’s Bill of Rights, can do more to achieve economic and social justice for Texans than twenty congressmen in Washington DC.
With your help, DFA will be influenced to throw the weight of their endorsement behind David’s campaign, and that will be a big push forward in returning the state of Texas back to the people (and away from corporate control).
Take two minutes and write a recommendation on behalf of David Van Os, and then click 'send'.