Monday, March 08, 2021

The Far Left "Texas is Messed Up" Wrangle



Kuff focused on the maskless mandate and the widespread negative reactions to it.  John Coby at Bay Area Houston is mad about the damage Republican political leaders have done to our reputation (?!).  Therese Odell at Foolish Watcher vents her spleen at Greg Abbott.

Could the worst be yet to come?


Let's take that as our segue to the coronavirus.


Isobella Harkrider for Reform Austin documents the COVID variants now in the state. Alison Medley at the HouChron spoke to Memorial Hermann Infectious Disease Specialist Dr. Linda Yancey about the pros and cons of the new Johnson & Johnson vaccine, and the effectiveness of all the shots compared to each other, and to the variants.

"When you compare efficacy data, Pfizer ranks at the highest with 95 percent effectiveness in preventing COVID-19, compared to Moderna at 94 percent.  The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was found to be 66 percent effective at preventing moderate to severe cases of COVID-19, and  85 percent effective if disease is critical.  The concern has been whether the current vaccines will hold effectiveness against new COVID-19 variants, including the UK, New York, California, South Africa and Brazil variants.

"This vaccine is still effective against all these variants, as well as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines," Dr. Yancey reassured. "If we can get people vaccinated as quickly as we can, the virus will stop spreading."

Let's shift to the Lege, which gavels back in this week with more on their plates than ever.  Still desperate to change the subject, Abbott is diving into the culture wars.


Former RRC candidate Chrysta Castaneda opines in the DMN that the Railroad Commission and the PUC should be folded into a new energy commission (and those commissioners should be elected instead of appointed).  Socratic Gadfly looked at the Census delay and wondered if that will make redistricting even harder and more of a fistfight in a Lege special session, including the possibility of internecine Republican fights as well as R-D battles.  And Charles Miller for Texas 2036 appraises the new federal Medicaid proposal, which could mean $3 billion more for Texas.

Next, in criminal and social justice updates ...


And in political and election headlines:


Nearly two dozen candidates filed for the special election to succeed the late U.S. Rep. Ron Wright (R-Arlington) in a district that has become increasingly competitive in general elections over the past decade. President Trump carried the district by 3 points over Joe Biden in 2020, and the average Republican won the district by just over 6 points. Trump won the district by 9 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Mitt Romney carried it over President Obama by 17 points in 2012.

This is not a general election, and turnout is expected to fall well short of the 69% of registered voters who came to the polls in November. The 2018 special election for CD27, which was held in June, drew 15% of the number of voters as in the 2016 general election. A similar result for CD6 would result in around 55K votes cast. All candidates run on the same ballot regardless of party, and the top two candidates advance to a runoff, regardless of party, if no one secures a majority vote. Given the number of Republicans (11) and Democrats (10) in the race, a runoff is almost certain. The question is, what will be the partisan makeup of the runoff?

The last time a field this size ran in a special election was 1993, when 24 candidates filed to win the unexpired term of former U.S. Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D). There were 10 Republicans, five Democrats including the appointed incumbent, one Libertarian, six independents and two other minor party candidates. The Republicans collectively received 58.2% of the vote to the Democrats’ collective 40.5%, and the minor party and independent candidates combined for 1.3%. Eighteen of the candidates each received less than 1% of the vote, 16 of which received less than 0.5%. That left three Republicans and three Democrats with more than 1% of the vote.

Comparing a statewide race from 27+ years ago to a north Texas Congressional special election is IMHO a failure of analysis (which TXElects rarely makes).  Special elections are about ground game, and the Democrats failed there in 2020, by their own declaration.  I expect them to do so again in this contest, despite having 60 days to gear up for it.  Too bad they can't blame the Green Party.

It appears that Ag Commissioner Sid Miller is preparing to challenge Greg Abbott for the Republican nomination for governor, from his right.


And some environmental updates.


Last month Environment Texas released bold environmental agendas for Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.  In recent years these three cities have demonstrated their environmental stewardship, but now EnTx is challenging them to improve their clean energy initiatives, bolster clean air and water protections, and put wildlife over waste by banning the worst single-use plastics.

Texas wildlife indeed suffered mightily during the freeze, and will keep bearing the brunt of the Lone Star State's refusal to move away from fossil fuels to cleaner, sustainable energy sources.

Speaking of wildlife ...


Stopping here; more later this week.
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