Winners:
-- Sylvester Turner and Bill King.
Hats off to Bob Stein, who called it early and kept whipping it until it hit the wire. Adrian Garcia coming in third has to be something of a moral victory, but a shallow and short one. He's mostly a loser this morning: unemployed by choice, with a horrible mess left at his last gig that a nasty Republican isn't interested in cleaning up, and a soiled reputation as a lousy manager and lousier politician. I wouldn't want to be him or any of his supporters, who are feeling more sour than anybody after last night.
What the mayor's race is telling you: Ben Hall's black support -- and some of Sylvester Turner's as well -- put the blade through HERO's heart. It won't mean much for the runoff unless Sylvester makes an issue of it. He didn't say much about it in the general and I doubt he says much in December. If he does, he'll leak support to King, who will certainly be saying all of the worst things Republicans usually say in order to win elections.
-- Among At Larges and incumbents: Kubosh, Stardig, and Greg Travis join Dave Martin (all Republicans) as a solid red wall on Council next year. Mike Knox and Bill Frazer in the controller's office look to join them; they both lead their races going into the runoff. Among the Blues: Jerry Davis, Ellen Cohen, Robert Gallegos, David Robinson, and Amanda Edwards showed the most strength. But incumbents Mike Laster, and Richard Nguyen even more so, need help to return to the horseshoe.
The To-Be-Determined-in-Decembers:
-- Richard Nguyen versus Dr. Steve Le in District F: After defeating the Republican incumbent two years ago, Nguyen switched parties and became a Democrat in 2014. That appears to have drawn the ire of the conservative Vietnamese in this far-west district, who have Le in the lead after the first round.
-- Karla Cisneros versus Jason Cisneroz in District H: My choice was "Z"; Campos and the Chronicle picked "S". You may remember a comment here pointing out Karla is a stealth Latina. Runoffs are all about turning out your vote, so let's see how it goes.
-- Mike Laster versus Jim Bigham in District J: In this bathroom election cycle, Laster was bound to draw some haters and get forced into a runoff. He could have done worse with the odious Manny Barrera but he gets Bigham instead. Bigham's got a good ground game so Laster will be pushed hard. He'll need all the help he can get from HGLBT Caucus and other progressives to return to council.
Mike Knox versus Georgia Provost in At Large 1: As I wrote in my early advance for this race, Provost had a chance to prevail based on her business connections and her previous run for council. Heavy black turnout lifted her into the runoff, and I'll be curious to determine where she stood on HERO and whether that factored into her support. Knox, the archtype Republican Hater Caucus member, is going to benefit from King and Frazer up the ballot turning out R's to help his bid. The question in my mind is where do the old white Democrats go for this faceoff: to Provost or back on the couch. The city's alleged base voters need a reason to vote in this one.
Update: Provost was under my radar as a HERO hater.
If Provost can earn the endorsements of the also-rans -- Tom McCasland, Lane Lewis, Jenifer Rene Pool, Chris Oliver -- and if she has the ground game, then she can take this seat from its soft Republican termed-out council member, Steve Costello.
Update: I question whether Lewis and Pool, at the very least, will be endorsing Provost.
David Robinson versus Pastor Willie Davis in At Large 2. Once more, if the Black Bigot Caucus wants to turn out next month and flip a seat from blue to red, they're going to have give it all they've got. Robinson should have all the resources he needs to hold his seat.
Amanda Edwards versus Roy Morales in At Large 4. This ought to be a cakewalk for Edwards; it's the so-called 'black at large seat" on council; she was far and away the best choice in the first round, and the woman who could have been her nemesis in a runoff, Laurie Robinson, just missed. So she draws Morales, who's lost more runoffs than I feel like counting right now.
Jack Christie versus Sharon Moses in At Large 5. Christie has perennially been the weakest At Large incumbent during his duration on council, and his luck may finally run out with the qualified Moses taking him on in round two.
Update: As with Provost, Moses ran a stealth campaign, whispering that she was against the ordinance to her base vote. They'll probably turn back out in a month to support Turner, Provost, and Edwards. At least she should hope.
Bill Frazer versus Chris Brown for Controller. In many ways this will be the race to watch next month, as the two powers draw all of their supporters and assets for a final holiday showdown. Frazer was a strong challenger to a wounded incumbent two years ago and Brown is a legacy. Both men will raise and spend a lot to try to win. It's going to come down, as usual, to whether Democrats will show up and support their candidates.
Losers:
HERO of course; Mayor Parker, who leaves a legacy unfinished; my candidate Chris Bell and the moderate Republican Steve Costello, a host of good Democrats in AL1 and a handful of lousy ones (and some perennials and Republicans, too) scattered elsewhere, like Adrian Garcia and Ben Hall, Griff Griffin in AL1, Manny Barrera in J, Eric Dick and Andrew Burks in AL2, and the foul-smelling Carroll Robinson in the controller's race, who got way too many votes from rubes and dupes.
More after I rest some.
-- Sylvester Turner and Bill King.
Hats off to Bob Stein, who called it early and kept whipping it until it hit the wire. Adrian Garcia coming in third has to be something of a moral victory, but a shallow and short one. He's mostly a loser this morning: unemployed by choice, with a horrible mess left at his last gig that a nasty Republican isn't interested in cleaning up, and a soiled reputation as a lousy manager and lousier politician. I wouldn't want to be him or any of his supporters, who are feeling more sour than anybody after last night.
What the mayor's race is telling you: Ben Hall's black support -- and some of Sylvester Turner's as well -- put the blade through HERO's heart. It won't mean much for the runoff unless Sylvester makes an issue of it. He didn't say much about it in the general and I doubt he says much in December. If he does, he'll leak support to King, who will certainly be saying all of the worst things Republicans usually say in order to win elections.
-- Among At Larges and incumbents: Kubosh, Stardig, and Greg Travis join Dave Martin (all Republicans) as a solid red wall on Council next year. Mike Knox and Bill Frazer in the controller's office look to join them; they both lead their races going into the runoff. Among the Blues: Jerry Davis, Ellen Cohen, Robert Gallegos, David Robinson, and Amanda Edwards showed the most strength. But incumbents Mike Laster, and Richard Nguyen even more so, need help to return to the horseshoe.
The To-Be-Determined-in-Decembers:
-- Richard Nguyen versus Dr. Steve Le in District F: After defeating the Republican incumbent two years ago, Nguyen switched parties and became a Democrat in 2014. That appears to have drawn the ire of the conservative Vietnamese in this far-west district, who have Le in the lead after the first round.
-- Karla Cisneros versus Jason Cisneroz in District H: My choice was "Z"; Campos and the Chronicle picked "S". You may remember a comment here pointing out Karla is a stealth Latina. Runoffs are all about turning out your vote, so let's see how it goes.
-- Mike Laster versus Jim Bigham in District J: In this bathroom election cycle, Laster was bound to draw some haters and get forced into a runoff. He could have done worse with the odious Manny Barrera but he gets Bigham instead. Bigham's got a good ground game so Laster will be pushed hard. He'll need all the help he can get from HGLBT Caucus and other progressives to return to council.
Mike Knox versus Georgia Provost in At Large 1: As I wrote in my early advance for this race, Provost had a chance to prevail based on her business connections and her previous run for council. Heavy black turnout lifted her into the runoff, and I'll be curious to determine where she stood on HERO and whether that factored into her support. Knox, the archtype Republican Hater Caucus member, is going to benefit from King and Frazer up the ballot turning out R's to help his bid. The question in my mind is where do the old white Democrats go for this faceoff: to Provost or back on the couch. The city's alleged base voters need a reason to vote in this one.
Update: Provost was under my radar as a HERO hater.
If Provost can earn the endorsements of the also-rans -- Tom McCasland, Lane Lewis, Jenifer Rene Pool, Chris Oliver -- and if she has the ground game, then she can take this seat from its soft Republican termed-out council member, Steve Costello.
Update: I question whether Lewis and Pool, at the very least, will be endorsing Provost.
David Robinson versus Pastor Willie Davis in At Large 2. Once more, if the Black Bigot Caucus wants to turn out next month and flip a seat from blue to red, they're going to have give it all they've got. Robinson should have all the resources he needs to hold his seat.
Amanda Edwards versus Roy Morales in At Large 4. This ought to be a cakewalk for Edwards; it's the so-called 'black at large seat" on council; she was far and away the best choice in the first round, and the woman who could have been her nemesis in a runoff, Laurie Robinson, just missed. So she draws Morales, who's lost more runoffs than I feel like counting right now.
Jack Christie versus Sharon Moses in At Large 5. Christie has perennially been the weakest At Large incumbent during his duration on council, and his luck may finally run out with the qualified Moses taking him on in round two.
Update: As with Provost, Moses ran a stealth campaign, whispering that she was against the ordinance to her base vote. They'll probably turn back out in a month to support Turner, Provost, and Edwards. At least she should hope.
Bill Frazer versus Chris Brown for Controller. In many ways this will be the race to watch next month, as the two powers draw all of their supporters and assets for a final holiday showdown. Frazer was a strong challenger to a wounded incumbent two years ago and Brown is a legacy. Both men will raise and spend a lot to try to win. It's going to come down, as usual, to whether Democrats will show up and support their candidates.
Losers:
HERO of course; Mayor Parker, who leaves a legacy unfinished; my candidate Chris Bell and the moderate Republican Steve Costello, a host of good Democrats in AL1 and a handful of lousy ones (and some perennials and Republicans, too) scattered elsewhere, like Adrian Garcia and Ben Hall, Griff Griffin in AL1, Manny Barrera in J, Eric Dick and Andrew Burks in AL2, and the foul-smelling Carroll Robinson in the controller's race, who got way too many votes from rubes and dupes.
More after I rest some.
