Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Turner and King move on, HERO falls, some incumbents in trouble


-- Sylvester Turner and Bill King.

Hats off to Bob Stein, who called it early and kept whipping it until it hit the wire.  Adrian Garcia coming in third has to be something of a moral victory, but a shallow and short one.  He's mostly a loser this morning: unemployed by choice, with a horrible mess left at his last gig that a nasty Republican isn't interested in cleaning up, and a soiled reputation as a lousy manager and lousier politician.  I wouldn't want to be him or any of his supporters, who are feeling more sour than anybody after last night.

What the mayor's race is telling you:  Ben Hall's black support -- and some of Sylvester Turner's as well -- put the blade through HERO's heart.  It won't mean much for the runoff unless Sylvester makes an issue of it.  He didn't say much about it in the general and I doubt he says much in December.  If he does, he'll leak support to King, who will certainly be saying all of the worst things Republicans usually say in order to win elections.

-- Among At Larges and incumbents: Kubosh, Stardig, and Greg Travis join Dave Martin (all Republicans) as a solid red wall on Council next year.  Mike Knox and Bill Frazer in the controller's office look to join them; they both lead their races going into the runoff.  Among the Blues: Jerry Davis, Ellen Cohen, Robert Gallegos, David Robinson, and Amanda Edwards showed the most strength.  But incumbents Mike Laster, and Richard Nguyen even more so, need help to return to the horseshoe.

The To-Be-Determined-in-Decembers:

-- Richard Nguyen versus Dr. Steve Le in District F:  After defeating the Republican incumbent two years ago, Nguyen switched parties and became a Democrat in 2014.  That appears to have drawn the ire of the conservative Vietnamese in this far-west district, who have Le in the lead after the first round.

-- Karla Cisneros versus Jason Cisneroz in District H:  My choice was "Z"; Campos and the Chronicle picked "S".  You may remember a comment here pointing out Karla is a stealth Latina.  Runoffs are all about turning out your vote, so let's see how it goes.

-- Mike Laster versus Jim Bigham in District J:  In this bathroom election cycle, Laster was bound to draw some haters and get forced into a runoff.  He could have done worse with the odious Manny Barrera but he gets Bigham instead.  Bigham's got a good ground game so Laster will be pushed hard.  He'll need all the help he can get from HGLBT Caucus and other progressives to return to council.

Mike Knox versus Georgia Provost in At Large 1:  As I wrote in my early advance for this race, Provost had a chance to prevail based on her business connections and her previous run for council.  Heavy black turnout lifted her into the runoff, and I'll be curious to determine where she stood on HERO and whether that factored into her support.  Knox, the archtype Republican Hater Caucus member, is going to benefit from King and Frazer up the ballot turning out R's to help his bid.  The question in my mind is where do the old white Democrats go for this faceoff: to Provost or back on the couch.  The city's alleged base voters need a reason to vote in this one.

Update: Provost was under my radar as a HERO hater.

If Provost can earn the endorsements of the also-rans -- Tom McCasland, Lane Lewis, Jenifer Rene Pool, Chris Oliver -- and if she has the ground game, then she can take this seat from its soft Republican termed-out council member, Steve Costello.

Update: I question whether Lewis and Pool, at the very least, will be endorsing Provost.

David Robinson versus Pastor Willie Davis in At Large 2.  Once more, if the Black Bigot Caucus wants to turn out next month and flip a seat from blue to red, they're going to have give it all they've got.  Robinson should have all the resources he needs to hold his seat.

Amanda Edwards versus Roy Morales in At Large 4.  This ought to be a cakewalk for Edwards; it's the so-called 'black at large seat" on council; she was far and away the best choice in the first round, and the woman who could have been her nemesis in a runoff, Laurie Robinson, just missed.  So she draws Morales, who's lost more runoffs than I feel like counting right now.

Jack Christie versus Sharon Moses in At Large 5.  Christie has perennially been the weakest At Large incumbent during his duration on council, and his luck may finally run out with the qualified Moses taking him on in round two.

Update: As with Provost, Moses ran a stealth campaign, whispering that she was against the ordinance to her base vote.  They'll probably turn back out in a month to support Turner, Provost, and Edwards.  At least she should hope.

Bill Frazer versus Chris Brown for Controller.  In many ways this will be the race to watch next month, as the two powers draw all of their supporters and assets for a final holiday showdown.  Frazer was a strong challenger to a wounded incumbent two years ago and Brown is a legacy.  Both men will raise and spend a lot to try to win.  It's going to come down, as usual, to whether Democrats will show up and support their candidates.


HERO of course; Mayor Parker, who leaves a legacy unfinished; my candidate Chris Bell and the moderate Republican Steve Costello, a host of good Democrats in AL1 and a handful of lousy ones (and some perennials and Republicans, too) scattered elsewhere, like Adrian Garcia and Ben Hall, Griff Griffin in AL1, Manny Barrera in J, Eric Dick and Andrew Burks in AL2, and the foul-smelling Carroll Robinson in the controller's race, who got way too many votes from rubes and dupes.

More after I rest some.


Unknown said...

Before we go on to blame Black people for HERO's loss, let's remember the scapegoating that happened with Prop 8 in California

Can we wait until we get better numbers before we make assumptions based on lazy generalizations of Black folk?

Unknown said...

I was happy to see Garcia underperform... or did King just overperform?

I think that Eric Dick's problem was that he didn't pull in the vacant lot vote this time like he has in the past. And I didn't see a single Eric Dick sign at the top of telephone poles in my neighborhood this time out. I expected way more signage.

PDiddie said...

You must have missed my original "scapegoating/lazy generalizations" post from Monday, Matt.

And also the yelping and whining from little dogs hit by stones to the same post on this blog's Facebook page.

meme said...

"Sticks and stones will break my bones, but words will never hurt me."

Does it does your side any benefit to resort to name calling?


extremely unpleasant; repulsive.
synonyms: revolting, repulsive, repellent, repugnant, disgusting, offensive, objectionable, vile, foul, abhorrent, loathsome, nauseating, sickening, hateful, detestable, execrable, abominable, monstrous, appalling, reprehensible, deplorable, insufferable, intolerable, despicable, contemptible, unspeakable, atrocious, awful, terrible, dreadful, frightful, obnoxious, unsavory, unpalatable, unpleasant, disagreeable, nasty, noisome, distasteful; More
informalghastly, horrible, horrid, gross, godawful;

Think on that?

PDiddie said...

I'm quite familiar with 'odious', Manny, but thanks for saving others the trouble of looking it up.

I thought it about and I think I still prefer it to "vile", venal", and "foul-smelling". That one is reserved for Carroll Robinson.

That offer of a cocktail on me at the Guava Lamp still stands. We might have to sit at separate tables, though...

Unknown said...

Oh you must be really proud of that whining and yelping from little dogs joke to use it twice. *claps enthusiastically* Passive aggressive delusions of superiority are so boring.

Yes, Black pastors and religious conservatives rallied lots of people to vote against HERO-but that doesnt set them apart from the white religious right . What I'm saying is that blaming the Black vote for HERO not passing is ignoring what people like Transgriot have BEEN saying :

"The Black LGBT community and our allies have been warning for months that action was needed in our community IMMEDIATELY or else HERO was going down to defeat. We pleaded for canvassing in our neighborhoods, pro-HERO ads on Houston Black radio stations and hard hitting attacks to destroy the only card our haters had to play in the bathroom meme."

Not to mention the "moderate" and "progressive" dems who wanted to whitewash the campaign by not putting transwomen of color at the forefront of the campaign.

But no, its a lot easier to blame Black people (and there's a precedent for it-see: prop 8 in California) than to acknowledge the role of poor, non-intersectional organizing done by impotent liberal organizations like Houston Unites. Most of my family and friends living in Black neighborhoods in Houston definitely noticed the lack of outreach, ads, on the ground organizing etc, being done by folks involved with Houston Unites/HRC.

PDiddie said...

I only use it when it applies, as in this case. Which means "the hurt dog yelps loudest" analogy may get used again, judging solely from your tone.

I agree with Trangriot. (Her blog feed appears in the right hand column, for those of you unfamiliar.) Houston Unites and the HGLBT Caucus are heavy-laden with middle-aged white men (the prime demographic, you will recall, of Houston muni elections). It surprised me not a single bit to read Moni's comments, and to hear them coming from other quarters such as you have shared. I believe the closest that the support groups got to the black community was beseeching Beyonce' with a Twitter hashtag, to no avail.

In the continuing analysis -- some of which I will post tomorrow morning -- it's quite apparent that the supporters of HERO failed to take advantage of every ally, potential ally, and asset. My beef was they ignored the petition calls for Houston to lose major supporting events if the ordinance fell, which the business community, GHP and others, noted publicly was a genuine threat.

But the fallacy that the black community was waiting to be asked to support HERO -- and when they weren't, withheld it -- is just not logical. People of all creeds felt compelled to vote for or against the ordinance, and almost all of them did so without any encouragement needed.

Unknown said...

I read Transgriot's latest post, and I think her point there and your point here in the comments are good ones.

White gay males have always "owned" (or felt they owned the LGBT political movement. It's unquestionably the legacy of ACT-Up and the activism surrounding AIDS in the Eighties, and they've never really gotten past it.

There was another angle to the HERO fight, too, and that's the fact that all of the discussion surrounded transgenders. The LGBT community has its share of infighting, and the "T" part of that LGBT is not on equal footing.

I'll bet that not one in five gay activists in this town can talk about transgender issues coherently, and at least that many are internally resentful that lack of understanding about transgender issues could be costing the community political victories.

White, gay, middle-aged CIS men are not going to be able to go into the black community or the Latino community and quell fears about transgenders.

Somehow, this never occurred to me until today - probably because the victories seem like they've just been rolling in up until now!

meme said...

Well, at least your offer even if on different tables is a step in the right direction. Only animals should resort to acts of violence or war over disagreements of what is the right direction. We all have our own shoes that we have traveled on and make our judgments on those miles we have walked in our shoes.