While we wait

... for Obama to bust his move on immigration reform, a few leaks begin to trickle.

President Barack Obama is poised to give relief from deportation to millions of undocumented immigrants who are parents of U.S. citizens or of permanent legal residents, according to a source familiar with White House deliberations.

Obama has promised to lay out the details of an executive order on immigration. The action could come as early as this week.

The source, who asked not to be identified, said some details were not yet available on which parents of citizens or permanent residents would be included. The Obama administration, the source said, had been looking at options including those parents who have been living in the United States for five years or 10 years.

A top Obama aide is scheduled to have lunch with Senate Democrats on Thursday on Capitol Hill. White House chief of staff Denis McDonough, who will discuss the state of the economy and the post-election legislative agenda, is likely to be pressed on the immigration issue in the closed-door luncheon.

On Monday, in an interview with Univision, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, said that Obama should move on immigration "now."

Obama is expected to take actions to allow some undocumented people to live here at least temporarily without the threat of deportation and to hold jobs in the United States. Obama's executive order could also include further border security steps, according to sources. Obama is expected to stress that he wants to focus efforts on deportations of illegal residents with serious criminal backgrounds.

He might be waiting on the Ferguson grand jury's decision regarding the indictment of Michael Brown's murderer.  If he is, then the immigration news will take a back seat for a few days.

Update: He's not waiting much longer.  It makes sense that he would do it in the evening for primetime TV cameras.  (As opposed to the Ferguson grand jury matter, which will almost certainly be announced in the early hours of some morning, as far from nightfall as they can manage.)

... for Missouri to explode, and engulf the rest of the nation.

A St. Louis suburb that faced weeks of sometimes violent protests following August's fatal shooting of an unarmed black teenager by a white policeman remained on edge on Wednesday as it waited to learn if the officer would face charges.

A grand jury has been meeting for nearly three months, considering whether to indict Ferguson, Missouri, police officer Darren Wilson for the Aug. 9 shooting of Michael Brown, an incident that laid bare long-simmering racial tensions in the mostly black city.

There's been some taunting going on as well.

Some of Wilson's supporters have been almost agitating for a showdown. One raised money to purchase a billboard with the slogan, "Pants Up, Don't Loot," playing off the "Hands Up, Don't Shoot" rallying cry of Ferguson protesters. A Missouri chapter of the KKK threatened "lethal force" against protesters.

It's no exaggeration that the rest of the country is nearly as tense as Ferguson.  Not joking.

... to see how many more Texans will have to die from exploding or leaking toxic chemicals before Republicans and those who vote for them start demand some accountability.

On Saturday morning, four workers died at a DuPont chemical plant that manufactures the pesticide Lannate in La Porte, Texas after a leak of the poisonous gas methyl mercaptan. A fifth was hospitalized but later released. The plant hasn’t been visited by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration since 2007.

Such a deadly accident without an explosion or fire is unusual, according to the Wall Street Journal.

[...]

The plant is also out of compliance with hazardous waste management and air emissions standards from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), according to records reviewed by the Wall Street Journal. The agency brought formal enforcement actions against it for violations in 2012 and 2014, resulting in $117,375 in penalties. DuPont is also in discussions with the EPA and Justice Department about these issues at the La Porte plant, which began after a 2008 inspection.

And over the last five years, the plant was cited for violating state law at least two dozen times by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, according to a review of state records by the Texas Tribune, for failures related to performing routine safety inspections, keeping equipment in working order, and preventing pollution leaks. Most recently, it released 36,500 pounds of sulfur dioxide over the course of three hours in September, well above the allowed limit, and in August last year it leaked 40 pounds of chlorine. Some of the more serious citations resulted in fines of a few thousand dollars.

Too bad the families of the dead La Porte DuPont employees didn't drive around and ask.

... for Uber to suffer some blowback for being the world's latest, greatest corporate assholes.  It's got to happen sooner or later, right?

Right?

Senate votes tonight on Keystone, NSA reforms

-- Approval of the Keystone XL pipeline falls one vote short of cloture -- 59-41 -- just minutes ago.

After six days of political wrangling and vote-whipping, the Senate failed to pass a bill on Tuesday forcing authorization of the Keystone XL pipeline, dashing hopes of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) to add the vote to her list of accomplishments heading into a tough runoff election.

Fifty-nine senators voted for the bill, one short of the 60 needed to clear a filibuster. Fourteen Democrats joined all the Senate Republicans in voting for the bill, which was cosponsored by Landrieu and John Hoeven (R-N.D.). The House passed companion legislation on Friday from Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Landrieu's opponent in the runoff election.

Landrieu said going into Tuesday's debate that it was "one of the first debates I've been in in eight years where the outcome is uncertain." She added, however, that she went into the debate "knowing in my heart we have 60 votes. I hope we've got the courage that supports that."

But that last vote never materialized.

The Landrieu Rescue Gambit is very likely also a failure.  The new Senate will take up the measure again in 2015, with an eye toward 67 votes... the number needed to override a presidential veto.

Update: Here are the 14 Democrats who voted 'aye'.

Mark Begich (Alaska)
Michael Bennet (Colorado)
Tom Carper (Delaware)
Bob Casey (Pennsylvania)
Joe Donnelly (Indiana)
Kay Hagan (North Carolina)
Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota)
Mary Landrieu (Louisiana)
Joe Manchin (West Virginia)
Claire McCaskill (Missouri)
Mark Pryor (Arkansas)
Jon Tester (Montana)
John Walsh (Montana)
Mark Warner (Virginia)

Begich, Hagan, Pryor, Walsh, and probably Landrieu won't be in the Senate next year, replaced by Republicans whose no votes don't add to the tally.  Republicans in 2015 who will switch Democratic yes votes include Ernst of Iowa, Gardner of Colorado, Rounds of South Dakota, and Capito of West Virginia.  Meaning they still don't have 67, but that won't slow them down any.

"If you look at new Congress, you can count four more (GOP seats) right away, and there may be others," Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota, the lead sponsor of the bill, said after the 59-41 vote Tuesday. "You can see we're well over 60."

Hoeven acknowledged that Republicans would need 67 votes to override a veto, but said one possibility is to include Keystone in a larger energy package that may not prompt a veto threat.

Update (11/19): Or Obama could cut a deal with Republicans.

President Barack Obama might be open to using the Keystone pipeline as leverage with Republicans if they cooperate on other aspects of his long-stalled domestic agenda, such as investing in infrastructure, closing tax loopholes or reducing carbon emissions.

After years of fighting over TransCanada's crude oil pipeline from Canada, a Keystone deal is not entirely out of the question, sources inside the administration and others close to the White House told Reuters on Tuesday.

-- The Senate will also decide tonight how much spying on Americans -- and to what extent -- will continue happening.  Vox:

The original version of the USA Freedom Act, introduced by Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-WI) in October 2013, had a number of provisions on the wish lists of civil liberties groups. But by the time the legislation was approved by the House of Representatives in May 2014, it had been watered down so much that leading civil liberties groups opposed it.

So, in July, Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) introduced his own version of the USA Freedom Act in the Senate. It is less radical than the original USA Freedom Act, but places more limits on the NSA than the legislation approved by the House.

Debate over the USA Freedom Act has focused on the best way to rein in bulk collection of Americans' phone records. The Senate version of the legislation requires any collection of phone records to focus on a suitably narrow "selector" — a search term that identifies an individual, phone line, or other specific entity.

The Senate bill would also take some other steps to make the NSA's activities more transparent and accountable. Right now, when the government asks the secretive Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to approve surveillance activities, there is no one around to present opposing arguments. The Senate bill would change that by creating several new positions for public advocates who could participate in FISC proceedings.

The bill would also require the government to disclose significant FISC opinions (though the government could decline to publish them if it decides doing so would damage national security) and to publish detailed statistics about the extent of domestic spying activities.

Here's the most interesting part; who stands against the legislation and why.

Advocates at both extremes of the surveillance debate oppose the bill. From the pro-surveillance side, former NSA director Michael Hayden and former attorney general Michael Mukasey recently blasted the bill as "NSA Reform That Only ISIS Could Love." At the opposite end of the political spectrum, some hard-core civil libertarians are opposing the bill for being too soft on the NSA.

Interestingly, Kentucky's two Republican Senators, Rand Paul and majority leader Mitch McConnell, oppose the bill for opposite reasons. Paul thinks it doesn't go far enough, while McConnell believes it ties the NSA's hands too much. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), the top Republican on the Senate intelligence committee, agrees with McConnell.

The bill will need 60 votes to overcome an expected filibuster.

More there about how the various amendments to be offered might strengthen or weaken the bill.  I'll update here with the final vote later tonight (or tomorrow morning if they go on all night).

Update:

The Senate on Tuesday blocked a bill to end bulk collection of American phone records by the National Security Agency, dealing a blow to President Barack Obama's primary proposal to rein in domestic surveillance.

The 58-42 vote was two short of the 60 needed to proceed with debate. Voting was largely along party lines, with most Democrats supporting the bill and most Republicans voting against it. The Republican-controlled House had previously passed its own NSA bill.

The legislation would have ended the NSA's collection of domestic calling records, instead requiring the agency to obtain a court order each time it wanted to analyze the records in terrorism cases, and query records held by the telephone companies. In many cases the companies store the records for 18 months.

The revelation that the spying agency had been collecting and storing domestic phone records since shortly after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, was among the most significant by Edward Snowden, a former agency network administrator who turned over secret NSA documents to journalists. The agency collects only so-called metadata — numbers called, not names — and not the content of conversations. But the specter of the intelligence agency holding domestic calling records was deeply disquieting to many Americans.

The bill had drawn support from technology companies and civil liberties activists. Its failure means there has been little in the way of policy changes as a result of Snowden's disclosures.

What the US Senate will look like next year

I was hoping someone else would write this and save me the trouble of finishing it, but since I haven't seen anything better, I'll go ahead with mine.  Most of the excerpts below came from three sources: this piece at the Daily Beast, this article at the New York Times, and this report from USA Today.

The important thing to bear in mind is that Republicans did not make the Todd Akin/Sharron Angle/Christine O'Donnell mistakes of years past.  Either that or the low turnout favored the freakishly right to such an advanced degree that it did not matter.  And the other thing to note is that the blue wave is coming in 2016; 24 Senate seats up for re-election in two years have to be defended by Republicans, some of them in blue states like Marco Rubio of Florida and Rob Portman of Ohio (both have said they will not run for re-election to the US Senate if they decide to bid for the White House), Mark Kirk of Illinois, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.  More on that good news for Dems/bad news for Repubs in 2016 here and here.

THE FLIPS

Alaska -- Incumbent Democrat Mark Begich has finally conceded to R Dan Sullivan.  This was the Republicans' latest flip, making their total of those eight (so far, as we wait for the runoff in Louisiana).

(Sullivan) was backed early by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove’s American Crossroads. His pedigree includes an undergraduate degree from Harvard, two stints in the second Bush administration and tenures as Alaska’s attorney general and commissioner of natural resources.

When his campaign needed a jolt this year, he called in a favor from one of the most recognizable figures in the Republican Party: Condoleezza Rice, the former secretary of state. Ms. Rice agreed to film an ad in which she looked straight into the camera and said, “America needs Dan Sullivan.”

Arkansas -- In one of the Senate races that was lost in the week before Election Day, Republican Tom Cotton defeated incumbent D David Pryor.

When Cotton takes his oath of office, he will become the youngest U.S. senator.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks occurred while Cotton was in his final year at Harvard Law School, causing him to rethink his future. The sixth-generation Arkansan clerked for a U.S. Court of Appeals judge and worked in private law practice before deciding to enlist in the U.S. Army. Cotton told Politico he delayed his Army enlistment because he made a commitment to the federal judge and needed to pay off his student loans.

Cotton eventually served five years in the Army and completed two combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, earning a Bronze Star among other commendations. Military groups say Cotton is one of the first Iraq War veterans to be elected to the U.S. Senate. [...]

Cotton tied Pryor, the last Democrat in the Arkansas congressional delegation, to President Obama throughout the Senate race and highlighted his opponent's support of the Affordable Care Act. [...]

The Republican's campaign spots also featured his drill sergeant and parents, who previously voted for Democrats such as Pryor and his father, David, a former Arkansas governor and U.S. senator.

"But like so many Arkansans, they realized that Barack Obama and the Obama Democrats don't reflect the old conservative Democrats that they knew and grew up with," Cotton told Real Clear Politics about his parents.

Here's what conservative radio talker Steve Deace is saying about him (and Iowa's Joni Ernst and Nebraska's Ben Sasse).

“What I heard from conservatives I talked to around the country during the election was ‘Who is going to go there and help out [Sen. Ted] Cruz and [Sen. Mike] Lee? Who is going to help out the wacko birds?’” said Deace, referring to the derisive term Sen. John McCain once used to describe Cruz that conservatives now wear as a badge of honor. “Our expectation is that [Ernst, Cotton and Sasse] are going to join the ranks of the wacko birds. That’s our expectation.”

Deace and his listeners won’t be the only ones looking to the trio to for results. So will conservative donors. The Senate Conservatives Fund and its affiliate Senate Conservatives Action, for example, plowed millions into the Iowa, Nebraska and Arkansas races. Ernst received nearly $450,000 in bundled contributions and $475,000 in independent expenditures from the groups for her race. Sasse got $487,000 in bundled contributions and more than $835,000 in outside expenditures in his GOP primary. Cotton picked up about $200,000 in bundled SCF money and saw more than $500,000 in outside SCF money in his race against Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor.

Another major conservative group, Club for Growth Action, poured more than $800,000 into Cotton’s race against Pryor, about $500,000 against Sasse’s primary opponents, and another $297,151 and $186,587 in bundled donations for Cotton and Sasse, respectively.

Colorado -- Cory Gardner beat incumbent D Mark Udall.  The loud objection one Democratic contributor had to Udall's emphasis on women's issues was, in the 20-20 hindsight post-election analysis affords, unfortunately the wrong issue to key on.

The race focused intensely on women's reproductive rights, with the Udall campaign highlighting Gardner's support for personhood legislation, which would provide a fertilized egg the same protections as a person, effectively making abortion illegal, as well as birth control under some interpretations of the legislation.

But Gardner recanted his support for such legislation early in the campaign. "The fact that it restricts contraception, it was not the right position," Gardner told The Denver Post in March. "I've learned to listen. I don't get everything right the first time."

Gardner went on to tout his new support for over-the-counter access to birth control. "I believe the pill ought to be available over the counter, around the clock, without a prescription. Cheaper and easier for you," he said in one ad.

Iowa -- Joni Ernst, R-Batshit Hog Castrator, defeated Bruce Braley and is replacing liberal lion Tom Harkin, which is probably the greatest lurch to the right that can be measured with modern technology.  Forget Braley's own epic failures; Harkin screwed up twice in the last days of this campaign.  Once was when he refused to allow the campaign warchest he had remaining to be used to help Braley, and the other was when he compared Ernst to Taylor Swift (for which he had to apologize).  Way to go out with a whimper, Tom.

Montana -- In one of the least surprising results on Election Night, the Big Sky State sent a Republican to replace Max Baucus.  From the time he left the Senate to become ambassador to China, Democrats knew they would have a hard time holding the seat.  Then the appointed placeholder, Lt. Gov. John Walsh, was discovered having fudged his resume', and what was already a long shot shifted into the loss column in August.  Rep. Steve Daines moves across the Rotunda; here's what the NYT wrote about him.

On social issues, Daines opposes abortion, same-sex marriage and funding of Planned Parenthood. He favors replacing the federal Affordable Care Act, and Common Core education standards, with "Montana based solutions.''

But in his Senate campaign, Daines focused on his support for the state's coal, oil and timber industries. In his single term in the House, Daines pushed for expanded logging in federal forest land and supported the Keystone oil pipeline.

Decrying what he calls the Obama administration's "war on coal,'' he opposes increased environmental regulation of the coal industry, supports a continued tax break for coal production on native American lands, and supports an environmentally controversial port in Washington state for the export of Montana coal.

North Carolina -- Incumbent Dem Kay Hagan could not hold on in the Red Wave, losing to Tea Party-proud Thom Tillis.

Tillis promoted his conservative credentials during the campaign. Stressing his experience in the business world, Tillis said he would help bring tax-cutting, regulation-reducing, "pro-growth policies" to the national economy.

Hagan led in polls for most of the race, but Tillis rallied amid attacks on the Obama administration.

The campaign was among the harshest of the election year, featuring millions of dollars of negative ads.

South Dakota -- It was believed that an independent challenger, former Republican Sen. Larry Pressler, would throw this race to the Dems and their nominee, Rick Weiland.  That was too hopeful.  Former Gov. Mike Rounds easily bested those two to replace retiring Dem Sen. Tim Johnson.

The 60-year-old Rounds has been winning elections in South Dakota for more than 20 years. He served two terms as governor from 2003 through 2011. Before that, he was elected to five terms in the South Dakota state Senate, where he served as majority leader for six years.

[...]

Rounds called for reining in the Environmental Protection Agency's proposal to reduce global warming emissions, eliminating the U.S. Department of Education, and repealing and replacing Obamacare.

"I think big government is the biggest challenge we've got, and we want big government out of South Dakota," he said during a debate.

West Virginia -- The no-doubter among the flippers was here, where Shelley Moore-Capito was never seriously contested to replace Dem Jay Rockefeller.  Capito actually comes off as the most moderate of newly-elected Republicans in the US Senate.

Capito shattered a glass ceiling in politics with her election as the first woman to represent West Virginia in the U.S. Senate.

Capito, 60, defeated Democrat Natalie Tennant, West Virginia's secretary of State. She is also the first West Virginia Republican elected to the Senate since the late 1950s.

[...]

In the House, Capito serves as chairwoman of a House panel on financial institutions and consumer credit that has broad sway over the sweeping Dodd-Frank banking law. Her panel has worked to enhance oversight of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that was created under the law that has given Wall Street fits.

The West Virginia race never got on the political radar, in part because of Capito's pragmatic approach in a state that has Democrats serving as governor and in the other U.S. Senate seat. She is popular among House colleagues in both parties and a member of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a moderate group that works with Democrats on fiscal issues.

THE HOLDS

Georgia  -- Believed to be the strongest pickup opportunity for Democrats, Georgia fell away from Michelle Nunn in the closing days.  David Perdue will go to Washington to replace Saxby Chambliss.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution wrote that Perdue is "known on Wall Street as a turnaround specialist who helps revive brands and reap rewards for investors," and he campaigned as a job creator who knows how to help businesses thrive.

But that background also became a flashpoint in the Senate race when Politico uncovered a 2005 deposition in which Perdue acknowledged that he had spent "most of my career" outsourcing work to Asia. The deposition was in a dispute over a company a North Carolina textile firm called Pillowtex that Perdue had run briefly and that closed shortly after he left in 2003. Opponents attacked him for the loss of 8,000 jobs there.

But Perdue was able to focus the Senate race on Obama, and repeatedly warned that Nunn would simply be a "rubber stamp" for Obama's policies.

Perdue's business background has made him wealthy, and he will become one of the 50 richest members of Congress upon his arrival in Washington.

Kansas -- Also thought to be a Democratic flip shot, the Jayhawk State's race wasn't all that close, as incumbent Pat Roberts prevailed over independent Greg Orman, 53-42.

Kentucky -- Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was thought to be vulnerable to a challenge from Alison Lundergan Grimes, but in hindsight she ran one of the weaker campaigns in the cycle.  Playing nearly constant dodgeball from Obama, Grimes got nailed too many times and lost 56-41.

Nebraska -- Ben Sasse, mentioned briefly above in the Arkansas excerpt, takes over from retiring Sen. Mike Johanns.  More on Sasse...

Sasse, 42, served in George W. Bush's administration in different roles with the Justice and Homeland Security departments, before doing a stint as an assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services. For a short time, Sasse was also chief of staff to Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb.

[...]

As a college wrestler, Sasse's secret weapon was to head butt his opponents. He has no feeling where he has a long scar on top of his forehead, the result of falling off a hayloft as a child. The Washington Post reports that injury allowed Sasse to excel with his wrestling specialty.  [...]  His primary victory in May over two rivals was considered a big win for Tea Party groups and conservatives such as Sarah Palin and Sen. Ted Cruz.

Oklahoma -- US Rep. James Lankford will replace ailing Tom Coburn from the Sooner State.

Lankford first became involved in politics in 2009, when he resigned from his position as director of the Falls Creek Christian youth summer camp to run for Congress, claiming God was "calling" him to do so. With the help of social media, Christian grassroots support and a financial advantage, he was elected to the seat vacated by Mary Fallin, who ran for governor, in 2010, beating his Democratic opponent with 63% of the vote.

Once in the House, Lankford earned a reputation as a hardworking conservative, ranked by the National Journal as the 76^th most conservative House member in 2014. Serving on the House Committees on Budget and Oversight & Government Reform, Lankford was elected chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee following his reelection in 2012.

On the campaign trail, the Baptist minister took a stand against federal debt, vowing to stop deficit spending. Rather than play up his accomplishments in Congress, Lankford looked to paint himself as a citizen legislator, much like Coburn.

Michigan -- Gay Peters is the lone Democratic freshman in the Class of 2014.

When U.S. Sen. Carl Levin announced in early 2013 that he wouldn't run for a seventh term this year, it was immediately apparent to anyone who follows politics in Michigan that Gary Peters was the Democrat most likely to succeed him.

Wonkish and bespectacled, Peters, 55, is a congressman from Bloomfield Township in Detroit's wealthy northern suburbs. He has been on an impressive string of political victories since wresting a Republican-controlled district from Rep. Joe Knollenberg in 2008.

In 2010, he barely beat back the Republican wave to keep his seat. Then, in 2012, after Republicans tried to force him out by placing him in a district with a senior Democrat, Peters instead stepped into a neighboring district in Detroit proper, winning easily. He became the first white to represent the city in Congress in decades.

[...]

Throughout his political career, Peters has counted on support from traditional Democratic sources – especially unions. But he has also worked to forge an independent identity in Congress, co-sponsoring bills with Republicans, including one that would crack down on duplicative spending in the federal government, and breaking with his party on some key votes.

"In the Senate," he said, "I will continue to focus on working with members of both parties to overcome gridlock and identify practical solutions."

You might have noticed that there is a very specific intention among many of these Senators-elect to get something done, and not grandstand or demagogue.  We'll watch closely to see if those were just campaign slogans.

I have a US House version of this post in draft status, and a similar one on the Texas Legislature (House and Senate) that needs some polishing.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance anticipates major developments ahead as President Obama reveals -- maybe --  his immigration reform initiatives.  The grand jury investigating the Michael Brown shooting will release its findings also.  And the US Senate is expected to vote on the Keystone XL pipeline.  There will be lots to blog about this week as we bring you the best from last week in this roundup.

Off the Kuff looks at some pro- and anti-equality bills that were pre-filed for the 2015 Legislature.

Libby Shaw, writing for Texas Kaos and for Daily Kos, notes that although the Republican voter suppression efforts had its intended effect of keeping so many of us away from the polls, Texas Democrats share some of the blame for voter apathy: Voter Suppression did the trick in Texas.

Evidence from around the country emerged in the wake of the 2014 election drubbing that change is going to have to come to the Democratic Party from both within and without. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs understood early on that if they cannot regain relevance in midterm elections, then we are all destined to ride the partisan see-saw every two years... and let gridlock reign.

Social media has been great at blowing up narratives generated from Republican think tanks and published in mainstream newspapers, magazines and TV shows. CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants to help: No, the new set of Republicans in Congress aren't less crazy and more pragmatic than Todd Akin or Sharron Angle.

WCNews at Eye on Williamson has one more go on some post-election commentary: Williamson Democrats, Battleground Texas, and the way forward.

Neil at All People Have Value said that there is not very much to say. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

Texas Leftist offers an insider's view of Battleground Texas... what went right, what went wrong and how the organization moves forward from here. Square one?? Get to know Texas, and don't mess with what already works.

Easter Lemming, in one of his rare and even popular posts outside of Facebook, covers a Republican blogger who shows how the Republican victories of 2014 set them up for defeat in 2016. There is a Democratic state firewall that would be almost impossible for Republicans to breach to get the presidency and the only question is how many seats will the GOP lose in the Senate and House. Easter Lemming now mainly posts on his Easter Lemming News Facebook page.

Texpatriate took note of some of the changes in the Texas Senate, and Bluedaze reports that Frack Free Denton moves forward even as the lawsuits against the successful ballot referendum start to pile up.

===================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Concerned Citizens scouts out the San Antonio mayoral race.

Lone Star Q has a surprising report about Westboro Baptist's involvement in the recent Houston anti-gay protests.

Nonsequiteuse examines the cult of Mommy and the cult of the fetus.

Unfair Park wants to know why Ted Cruz wants to slow down their Netxflix streaming.

Texas Watch is hiring.

Juanita Jean relates the worst Veterans' Day story ever.

Scott Braddock documents a teabagger slap fight in North Texas.

Fred Lewis sums up the evidence that wasn't presented at the San Jacinto waste pits trial.

And Trail Blazers says that the divisions among the Tea Party Caucus in the Texas Legislature highlight what is expected to be a fairly routine election of the Speaker, Joe Straus.

The Worst is Yet to Come Funnies

Frostbite Friday

Did you cover up your plants and bring the dogs inside last night?  It looks like it might warm up fast.  I'm clear of my election duties as of yesterday afternoon, but closing out my fiscal year means that time to blog at some length remains limited.

-- Yesterday Gadfly took exception with my characterization in this post of the climate pact between China and the US as a 'game-changer'.  I still think it is, and there's plenty of reasons to be a doubter (of my premise, not climate change).  Bill McKibben of 350.org in particular has several good reasons to be both encouraged and discouraged here.  I'm optimistic about the agreement being a difference-maker, and I'm capable of holding two competing thoughts in my head (and so should you).

--  From the people who complain when all schoolchildren get a trophy...

State Rep. Pete Lund, R-Shelby Township, introduced a new bill Thursday to change the way Michigan's electoral college votes are allocated. Under the new bill, the presidential winner of the state's popular vote would get at least 9 of the state's 16 electoral votes. The winner would receive an additional electoral vote for every 1.5% above the 50% vote mark. For instance, if the winner got 51.5% of the statewide vote, they would get 10 of the state's 16 electoral votes. If they won 53% of the statewide vote they'd get 11 electoral votes.

The rest of the electoral votes would go to the second place finisher.

The new bill is markedly different than Lund's last bill that would have awarded the votes based on congressional district. If that scenario were in place in 2012, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney would have gotten the majority of the state's electoral votes even though he lost badly to President Barack Obama in the state's popular vote.

Similar efforts in blue states that just elected Republican majorities in their statehouses will be under way shortly.  Yes, midterm elections have long-term consequences.

-- Had a fun discussion that began yesterday on a local politico's Facebook wall about the question I asked at the top of this post about the political consultants that threw Wendy Davis under the bus.  If you can't see that because of privacy settings then I'll summarize:  a majority of Texas Democratic professional (sic) advisers responding there don't really want to go on record as favoring or opposing the repeal of Citizens United.  It should be obvious why they don't, but they certainly don't want to say so.  This conversation has a few well-worn paths; I expected someone to use the phrase "unilateral disarmament" by now as a defense.  So they're just a little late or they're ignoring my call-out.  No big deal; they can take it up with JFK or Greenberg Quinlan Rosser if they choose.

Of course it's not only the consultant class but also the corporate media who stand against, because of the millions in television advertising they would lose as a result.  So don't expect your local teevee reporters to cover developments like the annual negative reviews about attack ads (that, shockingly, suppress voter turnout), nor should you expect the lazy/overworked newspaper accounts about the latest ad on YouTube (continuing their downward spiral by giving away what they could potentially collect a fee for), etc. and so on ad nauseum.

If you're one of the 81% of Americans who do want to have CU -- and, consequently, the vast majority of the leeches on our political system known as paid political handlers -- go away, then sign on here.

Update: More political-operative-leaked email bullshit here.

-- Texpatriate and Kuffner have comprehensive posts about early legislative filings in Austin.  Of note is Sen. Donna Campbell's rerun at codifying more discrimination against the LGBTQ community.  What are the odds that it passes next year?  I'd say they are good.

Carol Morgan with more...

Less than a week has passed since Texas voters granted approval to the institutional craziness of Texas’ newest political extremists. If I could quit laughing long enough, I just might set my hair on fire. These days, I seem to alternate between laughing and crying.

Just for amusement, head over to the bill-filing frenzy, a list of the priorities of our incoming 85th Legislature.

The long list of perfectly useless bills filed by Amarillo’s Four Price caught my eye right away. There were 31 of them: Proclamations for Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter, Mother’s Day and TWO commemorative Ronald Reagan days. Did he get these ideas from a Hallmark store or John Frullo?

One rep wants to repeal Dodd-Frank. Maybe he needs some civics remediation from one of the 12,000 teachers he laid off two years ago.

[...]

Texas Representative Mark Keough (who’s both a car salesman and a preacher) declares that there’s no separation of church and state, so he’s pushing for guns in church.

Now there’s talk from everyone, including Dan Patrick and the new governor, that voters gave them a mandate to cut property taxes and the business franchise tax (or just do away with both of them), just as Texas is facing answers to the problem of school funding. And more rumors about drug testing for anyone on public assistance or unemployment.

Crazy talk, anyone?

Thanks Carol, but I've already had my share.

-- Last, Rick Perry's 15-member appointed medical board AND Greg Abbott's Secretary of State-designate believe and recommend that Medicaid should be expanded in Texas.  Kuff also had the link to the TexTrib about the financial leverage the feds have in forcing the state to comply.  That would qualify as progress if it happened.  And the sooner it happens, the more lives of poor sick Texans might be saved.  Or extended.  Or improved.

Thank goodness we have people to explain it for us

EVBB for me concludes (perhaps) today, and we'll get back to the hard stuff as soon as it does.

-- Voter turnout lowest in 72 years; Texas last.  How much worse could it be if nobody hired political consultants who stabbed their paying customers in the back like this?  How much worse could it get if nobody hired political consultants at all?

The next time you go to a meeting where a political consultant is the guest speaker, and he/she is analyzing election results, ask them just one question: do you support overturning Citizens United?

If you want to understand why people don't vote, it's right in front of your eyes.  Just not his.

-- Oh, and there's this also.

In a move that mirrors their failed midterm election strategy, Senate Democrats are trying save Sen. Mary Landrieu’s job by voting on approval of the Keystone XL pipeline next week.

The Senate will vote (next week) on whether or not to greenlight construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. 

Even TransCanada has already moved on, for cripe's sake.

The vote on the Keystone XL pipeline is an attempt to save Mary Landrieu’s job. Landrieu still needs five Democrats to join her in supporting the bill, or it will fail next week. The problem with the vote is that it is an obvious betrayal of the values that Democrats have been championing for years. With their majority gone in January, Harry Reid is allowing a vote on a bill that he has refused to bring to the floor for years.

There probably are five Senate Dems who will vote for it.  If it passes, will Obama sign it or veto it?  I think it would be interesting to see what he does, particularly in the wake of the game-changing climate accord this week with the Chinese.  But how this helps Landrieu in any way is one of the more cynical gambits the Democrats have pulled on their base in a long, long time.

I suppose they think those rubes in Louisiana can't see through it.

Update: Joan Walsh nails it.

-- As we wait for the Ferguson grand jury's verdict on whether or not to indict the policeman who shot Michael Brown, it appears that things have a good chance to be worse than the last time.

Yeah, that's all the greatest country in the world needs right now: more racial violence.