Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Hump Day Wrangle


Let me first update a pair of 2022 election developments since Monday.


-- Gohmert has decided it's on him to hump Ken Paxton out of the attorney general's office.  So while his announcement was logistically challenged and math-deficient, should he take the plunge it probably forces a couple of announced entrants *ahem*MattKrause* to reconsider their bids.

Two more things:

1) He'll easily raise the million bucks  he says he needs in five weeks in order to decide.  If it's $10 million he wants ... well, I would be stunned if he got that much.  So all of this exploration is perhaps just shilling for his Congressional re-election (is that how campaign finance law works?  I don't want to bother Kuffner.)

2) Should he bid for AG, win the primary (runoff likely), and then lose to the Democrat in November, I'd fully expect to see him running for his old seat in 2024 ... and right back in Congress in '25.  Bicho malo nunca muerte.

-- E-Rod Tres made his TX-35 bid official this morning, joining Greg Casar.  With TMF opting out, these two would have to be considered the front-runners for the runoff, much to Claudia Zapata's chagrin.  She should run as a Green.

And some new politics business; the lathering up for Beto is under way.


I have been posting often that O'Rourke would not go for it.  That was because I took him at his word: that because the US Senate has been unable to use its workaround (i.e. abolishing the filibuster) in order to pass an elections bill watered-down for Joe Manchin, that Texas would be far too hamstrung to elect any statewide Democrats in 2022.  With the exception of attorney general -- provided that the GOP nominee's name is Paxton or Gohmert -- I believe Beto is/was correct.  So he must be reading this news and deciding he was wrong about that.


The result is at least 1 of every 5 voters in Texas never cast a ballot in the Lone Star State prior to 2014 -- a remarkable wild card in a state that had stable politics and a slow stream of new voters for a generation before that.

“You have a largely new electorate that is unfamiliar with the trends and the personalities in the area,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor. “That rapid turnover leads to a lot of uncertainty for candidates.”

It’s all setting up for a 2022 election cycle that is more competitive, more expensive and more uncertain than statewide candidates are used to seeing in Texas.

Wallace's piece goes on to laud the voter registration efforts of Battleground Texas and O'Rourke's own PoweredxPeople, as well as Voto Latino, MOVE Texas, and Jolt.

All those new voters have made Texas politics more competitive as well as more difficult to predict. In 2018, O’Rourke lost to Cruz in the U.S. Senate race by just 2.6 percentage points. (Lt. Gov. Dan) Patrick, (Paxton), and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller all won 51 percent of the vote or less in their re-elections.

Four years earlier, each of them had won at least 58 percent of the vote.

Certainly there have been bigger jackpots won on wild cards in Vegas, much as a lottery ticket of all random picks can hit the big one once in a great while.  I sincerely wish the best of luck to Beto and his cohorts who are betting on the come.

Be reminded that in the redistricting process just completed, every single Congressional district except the two new ones were drawn to be safer for the incumbent.


Be reminded that the TXGOP has strengthened voter turnout in the boondocks.  And more significantly, in the RGV.  Twenty-twenty and 2022's results are examples of their success.  It seems that the long-awaited Hispanic voter turnout is finally showing up ... for Republicans.

Last, this.


Again, it's always possible that the Supreme Court or Merrick Garland's DOJ can somehow, some way, ride to the rescue, saving Texas Democrats from the avalanche of voter suppression laws they've been buried under, through litigation and TROs and legal what-not, just in time, a year from now.

And donkeys might fly out of my ass.  Personally, I'll be voting more pragmatically next year.


BTW, if Joy Diaz decides to run for something, I hope it's lieutenant governor, and I hope she will do so as a Green and not a Democrat.
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