Monday, July 13, 2020

The Weekly Runoff Election Eve Wrangle (w/Election Day updates)


Update, Tuesday, July 14, pre-polls opening:

Six legislative incumbents were forced into runoffs when a majority of primary voters did not choose them back in March.
  • SD27 (D): Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (49.8%) vs. Sara Stapleton Barrera (36%)
  • HD2 (R): Rep. Dan Flynn (45%) vs. Bryan Slaton (36%)
  • HD59 (R): Shelby Slawson (46%) vs. Rep. J.D. Sheffield (30%)
  • HD100 (D): Rep. Lorraine Birabil (29%) vs. Jasmine Crockett (26%)
  • HD142 (D): Rep. Harold Dutton (45%) vs. Jerry Davis (25%)
  • HD148 (D): Rep. Anna Eastman (42%) vs. Penny Morales Shaw (22%)

Since 1996, 28 incumbent legislators have been forced into runoffs, and 23 of them have lost. All five who prevailed finished first in the primary election, and four of those finished at least 17 points ahead of their opponent in the primary election. This year, that would include Dutton and Eastman, who respectively have the third and fourth largest margin in the primary over their runoff opponent in 24 years.


Also from TXElects: "Heavy mail ballot count likely to delay election night calls in close races"

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Chicken Fried Politics (copy and links lightly edited for Lone Star relevance):

Voters in Alabama and Texas go to the polls Tuesday to decide several hotly contested U.S. Senate and House runoffs.

Trump features in several Congressional runoffs in the Lone Star State, notably in the 13th Congressional District (Texas Panhandle) where former White House doctor Ronny Jackson -- whom the president tried and failed to install as Veterans’ Affairs secretary in 2018 -- is competing with Josh Winegarner.  Jackson has the president’s endorsement.  Among Democrats, Greg Sagan will face Gus Trujillo.

In Texas' 17th District (Waco and parts of Central Texas), where incumbent Bill Flores is retiring, both parties are also holding runoffs.  Former U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, who rose to Republican leadership during two decades in Congress before losing his Dallas-area seat in 2018, is trying to make a comeback in a different district.  Sessions is facing businesswoman Renee Swann.  In the Democratic runoff, David Jaramillo will contend with Rick Kennedy.

In Texas' 22nd District (Sugar Land, southwestern Houston suburbs) Republicans will choose between Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls and businesswoman Kathaleen Wall  to replace retiring Pete Olson.  The winner will face Sri Preston Kulkarni in a fall contest that Democrats have targeted as a pickup opportunity. 

In Texas' 23rd District (West Texas, between San Antonio and El Paso), Iraq War veteran Tony Gonzales will square off against Raul Reyes, a builder and retired Air Force officer, in the Republican runoff.  Incumbent Will Hurd is retiring.  The winner will face Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who nearly defeated Hurd in 2018.

In Texas 24th District (Metro Dallas-Ft. Worth) Democrats Kim Olson, a retired Air Force colonel and former Weatherford school board member, will face Candace Valenzuela, who serves on the school board in Carrollton-Farmers Branch.  The winner will take on the Republican nominee, former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, for the right to succeed retiring incumbent Kenny Marchant in another race Democrats have targeted.

The Democratic runoff in Texas' 31st District (Northern Austin suburbs) features Donna Imam, an Austin computer engineer, against Christine Mann, a physician from Williamson County who lost the party’s runoff in this district in 2018.  The winner will face incumbent Republican John Carter, who is also on the Democrats’ target list.

And state Senator Royce West is competing with former Air Force combat pilot MJ Hegar, who narrowly lost to Carter in 2018, for the right to take on John Cornyn for a Senate seat that Democrats hope to flip in November.



Early voting ended Friday for Tuesday’s primary runoff and special elections. Across Texas, 647K people voted in the Democratic runoff -- 200K (31%) by mail-- accounting for 4% of registered voters statewide. Total votes cast already exceeds the total votes cast in each Democratic runoff since 1994 (747K).

I'll hold the presidential polling for the next White House Update.  Here's the latest on West/Hegar versus Cornyn.  Both the UT-Tyler poll released over the weekend and Cornyn's own pollster have Hegar leading with virtually the same percentage.


But Cornyn seems to want to run against Hegar, if his teevee ads attacking West as a "librul" can be interpreted as such.


Both our senators played "Quien es mas Stupido?" this past week.


Update: The man can't go one fucking day without making an ass of himself.


The State Bar of Texas elected ...well, you can read it for yourself.


Update: Texas lawyers want his resignation now, after three weeks as president.

Following up on an item in last week's Wrangle:


In media developments, a New Jersey hedge fund has been declared the high bidder for McClatchy, the company publishing the Fort Worth Star Telegram, the Miami Herald, the Kansas City Star, and 27 other daily newspapers.

Sanford Nowlin at the San Antonio Current reports that Rep. Joaquin Castro and several members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus have requested a sit-down with executives of two private prison companies, CoreCivic and GEO Group.  Both outfits also hold federal contracts to house immigrant detainees, and the treatment of those migrants has come under scrutiny in recent weeks.

Much more to post on social justice and the pandemic across the state, but wrapping up for today with the lighter side.


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