First of all you must accept the premise that Pizza Man and Governor Goodhair have indeed imploded, joining the ranks of the walking dead on Halloween (aka Dia de los Muertos).
If you do, then IMHO the two men standing to gain the most are 1) Romney and 1a) Obama.
Romney's still not seeing any polling bump, but as Richard Viguerie told Ed Schultz last week, that's because Mittens has been polling around 25% for the last five years. He won't solidify support until his nomination appears more inevitable than it already is, and that may not be until late spring (Viguerie again points out that the GOP primaries are, for the first time in 40 years, apportioning delegates by percentage instead of winner-take-all until April 1).
Regular readers of this blog -- with the exception of Matt and Greg -- would not be likely to give much credence to what goes on at FreeRepublic.com, but the proprietor there has recently banned all Romney supporters from his site.
Jim Robinson may not speak for all of them, but he speaks for some sizable contingent of TeaBagging sympathizers who have appear to have no options once Romney is nominated (and he will be).
Herman Cain's Black Walnut is melting down to a mush of goop with a few nuts floating in it. Perry -- well, cuddling a small bottle of syrup like it is a puppy is the equivalent of a Dean Scream. "Not presidential", and twenty-five minutes of that behavior instead of half of one second.
Unlike some of the chattering class as well as a recent poll which suggests a comeback, I don't believe Gingrich can capitalize (he has the same ladies' baggage as Cain, essentially). Certainly not Bachmann or Santorum. Huntsman? Gary Johnson? Not the TP's cup of tea. Ron Paul's numbers are the same as ever; even the Bags think he's batshit crazy. I'm still hoping Dr. No wises up and goes Libertarian.
I wonder if Donald Trump, Tim Pawlenty, or Thaddeus McCotter have regrets about withdrawing. Could there yet be a Sarah Palin Mad Hat tossed into the ring? Again, highly doubtful.
I just don't see where the Loon Caucus may land, except on 'demoralized'. They may get re-energized if/when Romney picks Rubio or some other of their ilk, but that's just McCain-Palin all over again.
What do you think?
Update: Just to add that I think 2012 is going to be a good year -- relatively speaking -- for third-party ultraconservative candidates. Like the Constitution Party, for example, and possibly even this person, whom I have never heard of before today:
If you do, then IMHO the two men standing to gain the most are 1) Romney and 1a) Obama.
Romney's still not seeing any polling bump, but as Richard Viguerie told Ed Schultz last week, that's because Mittens has been polling around 25% for the last five years. He won't solidify support until his nomination appears more inevitable than it already is, and that may not be until late spring (Viguerie again points out that the GOP primaries are, for the first time in 40 years, apportioning delegates by percentage instead of winner-take-all until April 1).
Regular readers of this blog -- with the exception of Matt and Greg -- would not be likely to give much credence to what goes on at FreeRepublic.com, but the proprietor there has recently banned all Romney supporters from his site.
Free Republic is a pro-life, pro-family, pro-gun, pro-small government, pro-constitution, pro-liberty site. Governor Romney is none of the above. His record is that of an abortionist, gay rights pushing, gun grabbing, global warming advocating, big government, mandate loving, constitution trampling, flip-flopping liberal progressive with no core values. That and the fact that he is the chief architect and advocate for ObamaCare disqualifies him for any consideration whatsoever on Free Republic as a potential nominee for the presidency.
Jim Robinson may not speak for all of them, but he speaks for some sizable contingent of TeaBagging sympathizers who have appear to have no options once Romney is nominated (and he will be).
Herman Cain's Black Walnut is melting down to a mush of goop with a few nuts floating in it. Perry -- well, cuddling a small bottle of syrup like it is a puppy is the equivalent of a Dean Scream. "Not presidential", and twenty-five minutes of that behavior instead of half of one second.
Unlike some of the chattering class as well as a recent poll which suggests a comeback, I don't believe Gingrich can capitalize (he has the same ladies' baggage as Cain, essentially). Certainly not Bachmann or Santorum. Huntsman? Gary Johnson? Not the TP's cup of tea. Ron Paul's numbers are the same as ever; even the Bags think he's batshit crazy. I'm still hoping Dr. No wises up and goes Libertarian.
I wonder if Donald Trump, Tim Pawlenty, or Thaddeus McCotter have regrets about withdrawing. Could there yet be a Sarah Palin Mad Hat tossed into the ring? Again, highly doubtful.
I just don't see where the Loon Caucus may land, except on 'demoralized'. They may get re-energized if/when Romney picks Rubio or some other of their ilk, but that's just McCain-Palin all over again.
What do you think?
Update: Just to add that I think 2012 is going to be a good year -- relatively speaking -- for third-party ultraconservative candidates. Like the Constitution Party, for example, and possibly even this person, whom I have never heard of before today:
Just when you thought the field of candidates for president in 2012 was full, a national radio talk-show host is now in the race, claiming Barack Obama is not even eligible for office because he has presented a forged birth certificate to the nation.
Laurie Roth from Washington state is running not as a Republican, but as a self-described patriot and conservative on the American Independent Party ticket. She says she's already on the ballot in California, and will take steps to make sure her name is listed in the other 49 states.
5 comments:
In 2007, all of the commentators were saying that the failure of Dem primary voters to immediately decide between Clinton and Obama was going to DOOM the eventual winner.
Of course, that did not turn out to be true.
If Romney is going to be the nominee, he'll be in the awkward position of trying to convince the Republican base he's right wing at the same time he's trying to convince the rest of us he's not.
But for the most part, when it's a choice between Romney and Obama, I think most Republicans will vote for Romney...
...unless there's a nifty 3rd party choice that is farther to the right...
Yikes, if Romney's supporters are getting banned from wingnut websites, that doesn't augur well for his ability to unify the base for the general election.
There aren't any more plausible candidates for Wingnut Messiah waiting in the wings, and if there were, they'd just implode one by one within a month or two of joining the fray, just as Bachmann, Trump, Perry, and Cain have.
Scenario: Nutty faction of Republicans remains divided; Sane faction nominates Romney. Palin runs as third candidate, seeing a chance to get back into the spotlight with no risk of actually winning and having to face the drudgery of being President. Nutty faction deserts Romney for Palin, Obama wins 40-state landslide, Republicans plunge into chaos as Sane and Nutty factions blame each other. Democrats share popcorn.
Newt Gingrich is the November Flavor of the Month, taking the place of August FotM Bachmann, September FotM Perry and October FotM Cain. My guess is that the December FotM will be Santorum -- and that Romney will be the eventual nominee.
Notwithstanding Perry's recent experimentation with public speaking while on hallucinogenic mushrooms, Perry connects with right-wing conservatives on a level Mitt Romney will never be able to reach. In the nick of time, Perry will blow the dog whistle and Romney's supporters will stampede to enthusiastically lick Perry's simpering face. The Republican nominee for President of the United States in 2012 will be the Pied Piper of Niggerhead Ranch.
Nutty faction deserts Romney for Palin, Obama wins 40-state landslide, Republicans plunge into chaos as Sane and Nutty factions blame each other. Democrats share popcorn.
What odds would you lay on that?
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