Monday, November 07, 2011

Houston Election Eve, poll results, and more

Tuesday Election Day update:

-- Ten developments to observe in today's elections.

-- A list of Election Night celebrations. Also, Harris County Green candidates Amy Price and Don Cook will watch the returns with supporters and friends at Bar Boheme, 307 Fairview at Taft.


-- As you likely are aware, HISD trustee Manuel Rodriguez has been seared over his homo-mailer by the HGLBT Mafia, the Chronicle, and everybody in-between. But he still may be re-elected unless this late breaking news turns voters who haven't cast a ballot yet against him. We'll know in about 36 hours.

-- The National Hispanic Professional Organization conducted the only public poll of which I am aware of Houston's municipal and educational candidates. A SurveyMonkey poll. There were some surprises -- or not, depending on how much value you place in online polls. Most people who know more (and care more) about polling than I do not place much if any. So there's your *ahem* pillar of salt.

Mayor Annise Parker holds a commanding lead (59.2%) over Deputy Chief of the Fire Department and GOP hopeful Fernando Herrera (31.1%). We had 473 likely voters who answered the question - “If the election were held today, who would be your choice for Mayor of Houston”.

This poll's political party ID distribution was 58.7% Democrats, 16.3% indies, 0.6% Libertarians, 19.9% Republicans, 0.4% Socialists, and 4.1% "other". I believe that breakdown represents an undersampling of the conservative electorate, and may suggest that Mayor Parker's numbers will come in somewhat under 59%.

Could this poll, as flawed as it seems, represent a red flag to the Parker campaign? Is it actually possible she could be forced into a runoff?

We did find the results for the At-Large #2 race interesting with Bo Fraga, son of former City Council Member Felix Fraga, getting 22.4% of the total vote and Jennifer Rene Pool getting 16.9% of the vote. These two candidates were the top vote getters in this race. The number of Hispanics participating in the poll is 12% higher than the historical Hispanic voter turnout in Houston. We therefore believe that the results for this race may be off and we have confidence that this seat is wide open to all candidates in the race.

There's yet another clue something is wrong. Latino turnout is well off even its usual anemic proportion (via e-mail from the Harris County Tejano Democrats):

According to official reports from the Harris County Clerk's office, Latinos have comprised 12% of the total in person absentee and mail in ballots cast. Districts H, I and J are the three lowest turnout districts as far as percentage of the city turnout is concerned with District H turning out 5% of the city total; District I 6% of the city total and District J 4% of the city total.

This poll has Anglos at 41.1%, Asian at 1.8%, African-American ("Black") voters at 24.4%, Latinos ("Hispanic") at 27.8% and the rest at 4.9%.

Note also that the quoted paragraph above indicates different percentages for Fraga and Pool than the graphs displayed at the link. The AL2 candidates by rank are Fraga (23.2%), Pool (16.5%), Thibaut (14.4%), Perez (11.8%), Robinson (9.3%), Shorter (8.9%), Burks (8.1%), Dick (4.1%), Griffin (2.2%), and Goss (1.4%).

Another discrepancy appears in the the numbers of respondents in the press release (473) as compared with the charts and graphs (492). No explanation is given. So there appears to be some error in calculation as well. Maybe it's me looking at something wrong. You check and see and tell me what you find.

At the very least, Republicans are significantly under-sampled and Latinos are vastly over-sampled. On the presumption that surnames matter to Latino voters ... Herrera, Fraga, and Perez -- RepubLatinos all -- may or may not be in good shape.

But this poll is probably useless for predicting much of anything. Texas Tribune, take note.

-- There's a hilarious little spat going on between H-Town conservo-bloggers. Big Jolly called District C candidate Brian Cweren gay and this guy called Big Jolly a liberal. That's almost -- but not quite -- as funny as Me, Evan's response to mayoral candidate Jack O'Connor's calling us out. Don't jack with Evan, Jack.

Here's your progressive voters' guide for Houston's election once again. Remember that the only official poll is tomorrow. Make it count.

1 comment:

me, evan said...

Thanks for the shoutout!