Wednesday, October 07, 2020

1600 PA Update: "It's Biden's to Lose."


So sayeth Beto O'Rourke, a week ago (specifically, about Texas).  Three weeks ago, in this Sunday Funnies collection ...


And two weeks ago, me.

As surely as the seasons change from summer to fall and the Gulf clears itself of tropical disturbances; as certainly as 2020's hurricanes went from boys and girls to non-binary; and as absolutely as there will be a new Justice seated before November 3rd, will President Donald Trump be "re-elected", in the most marginal definition of the word.

So while summer is still changing to fall and Judge Barrett is going to be Justice Barrett in due course -- more on that in a minute -- I am here to tell ya that I think I'm going to get the other two calls wrong (damn you, Hurricane Delta).  Beto's right about one thing; Texas stays red in the Electoral College, also the Senate, but it looks very good for blue Congress critters and a statehouse flip.

I went on there to challenge Ds to "prove me wrong", because "I really (didn't) want to be right".  And while Democratic voters still need to finish, everything -- and I mean everything -- is breaking their way to blow Trump out of the White House in 27 days.  Shockingly but unsurprisingly, Biden is intent on choking it away.

Let us count the ways:



Recent national polls showing Sleepy Joe with a 16-point lead are to be discounted.  We don't elect presidents via popular vote (see: Clinton, Hillary).  Also, Nate Silver's outfit referenced above is hedging because of his last presidential polling nightmare in 2016, as we all should recall.  But the fact is that Biden has never trailed in EC projections since the conventions; last week's debate debacle helped him a lot, and so has Trump's dueling Mussolini/Evita impressions upon talking his way out of Walter Reed less than a week after catching COVID.

None of these things swayed my personal flip-flop, though.  This did.


So he's given up.  Quit.  Cut and run.  He's decided -- or been convinced by the collapsing polls -- that his legacy will be three SCOTUS Justices and shifting the Court to the right for a generation, maybe two, instead of a second term.

He can't be perceived to be conceding the election, of course, and if it's closer than the polling says then he's got enough Justices to push him back into the White House, a la Bush v. Gore.

So I don't consider this a fatal error so much as a desperation play -- not a 3-D chess move -- on the part of his campaign advisors.  A Hail Mary to Amy Barrett (and Kavanaugh and Gorsuch and Alito and Thomas).  Once in a while those work, you know.  Anyway ...


I suppose some of you Bidenites need a receipt or two.


And Bernie Sanders is out on the hustings campaigning for this guy.


Those texts asking me to vote for Joe?  Keep 'em comin'.

Biden doesn't even want to debate Covita next week.  What a spectacular display of weakness.


So if you want options ... you have them.


With respect to those who read this blog who are voting outside of Texas:


Update: No veep preview.  Not watching but will be Tweeting, and some thoughts about it tomorrow, along with a preview of this:

Posted by at No comments:

Monday, October 05, 2020

More Wrangling from Far Left Texas


Socratic Gadfly has semi-regularly split off coronavirus news from other items in his version of the weekly Texas Progressives Roundup.  So with a very long first edition posted earlier today, I did the same with my collation of COVID stories, as well as police abuse/reform and other social justice Tweets and news.

Before we get to those ... today is #WorldTeachersDay, and they deserve our everlasting gratitude for all that they do and all that they endure.


And that's my segue.

Gadfly tackled COVID political tribalism coming from multiple sides and called ALL of it out.


Before moving to Black Lives Matter and other racial justice items, here's a few Indigenous stories that made news last week.


And unfortunately I have saved the worst for next-to-last.


Grits for Breakfast is up to part three in his review of Sylvester Turner's policing task force proposals, reminding us that meaningful police reform is far too long a haul.  Alice Embree at The Rag Blog writes about the racist and sexist roots of the Electoral College.  And with respect to "unrest", there's plenty of it making the rounds already.


So as I like to do, here's some Tweets that gave me a little happiness this past week and I pass them on to you in hopes that they bring you the same.

Posted by at No comments:

The Far Left Texas Wrangle



There's a lot corraled here.   In a developing item from the weekend:


Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick have responded with the predictable "raises concerns; wait for the investigation to play out" pablum.  State Rep. Sarah Davis is the first Texas Republican so far to call for Paxton's resignation.

Abbott's troubles, mostly of his own doing, also got a little worse over the weekend.


The protest dubbed “Free Texas — A Protest at the Governor’s Mansion,” is sponsored by a group calling itself “The Still-Somewhat Free Citizens of Texas.” “Tired of King Abbott’s lock down? Tired of masks and HIS control? THIS TYRANNY MUST END NOW,” reads the event flyer shared on the Texas Scorecard website.

The show is scheduled for Saturday, October 10, at 11 a.m.

Attendees will include Texas Republican Party Chair Allen West, Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, Empower Texans CEO and Texas Scorecard publisher Michael Quinn Sullivan, several state representatives and state senators and others.

Might be a fun day trip.  Speaking of Sid, he makes a cameo appearance in Sacha Baron Cohen's new 'Borat' movie.


Maybe "Jesus Shot" has designs on higher office in 2022, if Paxton or Abbott are perceived as sufficiently wounded politically to catch a challenge from the Operation Jade Helm Caucus of the TXGOP.  Wouldn't that be fun to watch.

Anyway ... Abbott.


More last-minute late night hours billed for the lawyers.  Christmas in October.


Kuff has also covered the two lawsuits filed (so far).

There's a great deal more election news to report. First, in the SD30 special election, Dallas salon owner Shelley Luther finished first, barely, in the jungle primary and advanced to a runoff against Gainesville state Rep. Drew Springer, in a photo finish reminiscent of the Preakness Stakes.   (Expect Luther to show up at the Abbott protest rally mentioned above.)

With this week's installment of "Republicans Behaving Badly":


Grist thinks there are six close Congressional contestss across the nation that might turn on climate change, and they believe TX-24 (Beth Van Duyne versus Candace Valenzuela) is one of them.

And that's my segue to this week's aggregation of environmental topics.


Evan Mintz is amused by a local referendum that will require public approval and flood impact studies for the construction of... sidewalks.  Save Buffalo Bayou profiles an Eagle Scout whose project two years ago to reseed a popular canoe launching spot has flourished.  A public works employee in Lake Jackson -- working on the remediation of the city's public water supply because of the presence of a brain-eating amoeba -- has tested positive for COVID.

And Ed Darrell at Millard Fillmore's Bathtub underscores the importance of voting climate, which is exactly what this blogger recommends as well.


The rest of the coronavirus-related and police reform and other social justice headlines I've collected will appear in a follow-up Wrangle later today.  I'll end this one with a fond remembrance of Lubbock's own Mac Davis.


Davis was born on Jan. 21, 1942, in Lubbock, Texas. After graduating from high school, he moved to Atlanta, where he began his music career as a member of a rock ’n’ roll band called the Zots. He later worked as a regional manager for both Vee-Jay Records and Liberty Records before getting a job at Nancy Sinatra’s company, Boots Enterprises, Inc., where he played on many of Sinatra’s recordings and got his start as a professional songwriter. His compositions were eventually recorded by Presley, Sinatra, Glen Campbell, Bobby Goldsboro, Lou Rawls, Kenny Rogers & the First Edition, B.J. Thomas and many others. What became his signature song, 1970’s “I Believe in Music,” was also recorded as the first Capitol Records single for Helen Reddy, who died the same day as Davis, Sept. 29, also at age 78.


As he sang in (I Believe in Music), "I thank God each and every day for giving me the music and the words to say." In a statement, his family confirmed that he will, per the song's closing lines, be buried in Lubbock, Texas, in blue jeans.
Posted by at 1 comment:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)