Monday, March 02, 2020

Texas Independence Day and Election Eve Wrangle (with Election Day updates)

(Ed. note: This blog has long been composed in Mozilla Firefox, and this post, using some unique spacing, is best viewed in that browser.)

The Texas Progressive Alliance is celebrating Independence Day today by helping those who waited for Election Day to research your ballot options.


A bit of state history few Texans likely know:

Lorenzo de Zavala designed the Republic of Texas flag. Attesting to its staying power, his creation continues today as the Texas state flag. Said another way, Mexican-born de Zavala is the one who put the star on the Texas Lone Star Flag.



de Zavala, once a high-ranking Mexican government official and consort to Santa Anna, became disenchanted with the president's authoritarian rule and resigned.  Later, he was elected the first vice-president in the history of the Republic of Texas, on March 16, 1836.  His story is complicated, and poorly told by public school texts in today's curriculum, but you can read about it at the Rio Grande Guardian.




With the wrap on early voting, TXElects.

Friday was a record-setting early voting day for the Democratic primary in the 15 counties with the most registered voters. A record 193K people voted in person or by mail on the last day of early voting, the highest one-day total in state primary history, eclipsing the 2008 mark of 173K. Friday’s voters represented a quarter of all early voters in that party’s primary in those counties. Three of the seven highest and five of the 13 highest, single-day vote totals occurred this year ...

Turning to the state’s 30 top counties, Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan’s final early voting report (PDF) indicated that 219K people under 40 voted in the Democratic primary and 58K people under 50 voted in the Republican primary. More than 300K people with no recent (2012-2018) Democratic primary history voted in this year’s Democratic primary (Ryan said that some of them voted in the 2008 primary.) and 123K people with no recent Republican primary history voted in this year’s Republican primary.

TXElects also analyzed the results from the three primary polls last week, as did Kuff.


The South Carolina primary results, a big win for Joe Biden, culled the field for the Democratic presidential nomination.  Pete Buttigieg was on a flight to Austin when he announced the suspension of his campaign, returning instead to South Bend, IN to make a formal announcement.  Earlier in the day he had declared he would not be dropping out, after Tom Steyer, who finished well ahead of him in third, did just that.  There is much speculation and some polling that suggests where Buttigieg's electoral support might go.  Of the remaining candidates, only Amy Klobuchar has not campaigned in Texas during the past ten days.

Update (Tues., 3/3): Klobuchar followed BootEdgeEdge's lead, falling out and then joining Pete in Dallas to endorse Biden.  Beto O'Rourke made it a threesome.  More on these developments in the next 'White House Update' post.

A chorus of Texas Democrats loudly moaned "woe is us"  (in classic Hee Haw style) as the prospects of a Bernie Sanders victory in Texas, in California and other Super Tuesday primary states, and ultimately the Democratic nomination, came into tighter focus.




And we can only imagine how favorable the numbers would be had the pollsters asked about democratic socialism.  We can be thankful that Bernie's proposal for free college tuition will enable Americans to return to school in order to learn the difference without fear of burdensome debt.


Not all Lone Star Donks are doom and gloom, thankfully.

“The truth is that Bernie speaks to people, not party,” (former state Rep. Marisa Márquez, one of Sanders’ most prominent Texas backers) says. “The disenfranchised and marginalized, especially Latinos, have found their voice in this campaign.

“I would encourage the leaders in our state to take a good look at the real change Bernie Sanders’ campaign represents for the people of Texas,” she adds. “Fear will not defeat Trump in November. “

And Sanders’ campaign has stressed that it believes he is the best candidate for a Democratic victory here.

“Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a nonvoting state,” says Kolby Lee, a Sanders spokesman who grew up in Texas. “If we’re serious about flipping the state House and winning in battleground congressional districts, we need a nominee who will inspire grassroots enthusiasm and turn out voters on Election Day.”

And Ross Ramsey at the TexTrib, via Progrexas, reminds us that after the presidentials move on to other states, we'll still have some runoff elections to decide next month.


PDiddie at Brains and Eggs exposed our state media's glaring bias in his pointed commentary on the Texas Senate Democratic primary.

In the pending special election to replace departing state Sen. Kirk Watson (reported in last week's Wrangle), state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez of Austin announced he has formed an exploratory committee to run for the seat.  The committee’s co-chairs are Reps. Gina Hinojosa, Donna Howard, and Celia Israel, all of Austin, and all of whom have previously declared their non-interest in running.


As the coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic spreads to the US, Texas gets its first cases, in San Antonio and in Houston.  Update: Greg Abbott responded with practiced indignant outrage at a Washington DC bungle, the only difference being that he didn't blame Trump.  The real news from that link:

The city of Austin is separately in discussions about whether to cancel the annual South by Southwest festival, a weeklong technology, music and film conference, according to Mayor Steve Adler’s office.

SocraticGadfly read Edward Snowden's Permanent Record and was left with lots more questions (about Snowden, not the government) than he had before.

Brooke Lewis at the HouChron celebrated Black History Month as a legacy of endurance.


The TSTA Blog dismissed private school vouchers as a "conservative moral value".  The Texas Signal found another candidate for Worst Republican.  Sanford Nowlin at the SA Current begged to differ, with his own pick.  And Bud Kennedy at the FWST wrote about a paranoid militia infiltrating Texas police departments that is fomenting rebellion.

A revolution-minded, conspiracy-bent militia group named the Oath Keepers is recruiting law officers in Hood County to take up arms in what the founder predicts will be a “bloody civil war” against the U.S. government.

A national director of the Las Vegas-based Oath Keepers, John D. Shirley, moved to rural Hood County in 2015 and has been appointed by county commissioners as a constable, giving him both access to confidential information and a political platform to recruit more militia members.

Better Texas Blog urged those who may be affected by the anti-immigrant "public charge rule" to stay enrolled in public assistance programs.  Lucas Manfield at the Dallas Observer noted the settlement in the case of a Mansfield ISD teacher who was fired for being gay.  And Keri Blakinger, formerly of the HouChron and currently of the Marshall Project, filled in for the ailing Scott Henson and sent him a criminal justice roundup post for his blog, Grits for Breakfast.


If you just haven't had enough of the Astros' sign-stealing scandal, Sean O'Neal's 'Hollywood, Texas' collation at Texas Monthly reports that you may(!) get to relive it as a television series.


The Hollywood Reporter notes that Sports Illustrated writer Ben Reiter will host the first of what will be a whole new franchise of sports documentary podcasts, beginning with this look at the Astros’s now permanently asterisked 2017 season. From there, producers hope to turn that whole saga into a TV series, which will allow Astros fans to relive those cringe-inducing memories as though they’re just another prestige show.

Let's close it out with these.




Wander down a desolate Texas highway in the 1950s, and you might stumble upon one of these Lone Star state jewels called motor court motels. Now there's a boutique hotel tucked away near Austin that is reminiscent of that retro style, Lone Star Court.

An emerging wave of moteliers are now harkening back to the cool heyday of motor courts. Lone Star Court is answering that nostalgic demand in Texas. Hidden away in Austin's neighborhoods to the north, The Domain, Lone Star Court has the aesthetic of Hill Country cool.
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Sunday, March 01, 2020

Sunday 'TrumpVirus' Funnies


Or is it a "Pencedemic"?









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Thursday, February 27, 2020

The state of the #TXSen Democratic Primary

It's a crine-ass shame that our corporate media not only picks their favorite candidates, to the exclusion (read: blackout) of all others, but then refuses to perform the due diligence to learn, and disclose, that one of their favorites is laden with heavy, reeking baggage.

I'll get to that in just a moment.  Let me open with the premise (you're welcome to disagree) that Bernie Sanders is going to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.  There is, unsurprisingly, major fuckery afoot to stop that from happening.  Again, whether efforts to subvert democracy by the Democratic Party establishment succeed or fail is -- or for now, will be -- a conversation for another day.

Today we'll start with the postulate above.  And if you buy that, then ...


Despite my longtime denigration of polls and polling, I tend to place more faith in the pseudo-science as Election Day draws closer ... despite the outcome of the presidential election in 2016 defying even the prognostications of the once-mighty Nate Silver.  (Hey, I believed him and them too.)

So Bernie's on a roll; he'll emerge next Wednesday morning with a bushel full of delegates; his various challengers are in assorted stages of disarray, and only some treachery is going to stop his nomination.  And with those circumstances, and with the Senate in desperate need of flipping blue so as to enact his sweeping reforms ... why is a Libertarian who voted in the GOP primary in 2016 and a self-confessed gun nut -- she stands for everything Beto O'Rourke fought against ...


... leading a dozen candidates by a mile in the race to replace John Cornyn?  The strength of her campaign seems to be, as it was in 2018 when she ran for Congress against John Carter, based on her military service.  Oh, and she also rides a motorcycle.

If you believe what the so-called smart people in Texas politics say, MJ Hegar will be followed into the runoff by a man or a person of color, and that sounds a lot like Royce West, the Dallas state senator with a long service history, many endorsements from his peers in the Lege, and a proud record of Democratic conservatism that Texas Donks are renowned for.  (Once upon a time, before they were called Blue Dogs, they were Boll Weevils, Reagan Democrats, Goldwater Democrats, Shivercrats, and other less-flattering monikers, but back then they were also all Kluckers.  Far be it from me to suggest that an African American conservaDem be classified with white racists.)

Hegar and West don't support Medicare for All, don't support the Green New Deal, but do support a host of middling half-measures and corporate centrist views that have been demonstrable failures in the Senate by Democrats of their stripe for many, many years.  A new generation of Texans needs new blood and fresh thinking.  These two ain't it.

Chris Bell, as I have blogged and Tweeted a thousand times, is a horse's ass of a different color.  He boasts of being progressive, but endorsed Bill King over Sylvester Turner in the 2015 mayor's race in which he failed to make the runoff.  That's not progressive (though to be fair, he might have told the truth if he'd simply amended his declaration of being "the most progressive in the race" to "the most progressive between King and Turner", although that's not much better).

And we know that Bell couldn't beat Rick Perry in 2006 in a four-person race for governor, losing votes to Kinky Friedman (not progressive) and Carole "Grandma" Keeton Rylander Strayhorn (also not progressive).  This is supposed to tell us, inexorably, that progressives can't win in Texas.  So sayeth the paid political class, pundits, and what have you.  We also know ad nauseum that Lone Star Dems have run nearly no one but conservaDems -- there have been a couple of exceptions -- and lost every statewide race since the mid-90's.

And then along came Beto O'Rourke in 2018.  Without digressing too much, Beto's shooting star has turned into a small meteor falling in the barren West Texas desert.  His close loss to Ted Cruz 1.5 years ago, his flameout in the White House sweepstakes last November, and his heavy bet on a longshot bid to flip a statehouse seat in Fort Bend County last month give him the look of a flash in the pan, in fact.  He's avoided making an endorsement here, though one candidate has staffed her campaign full of Beto alumni.

Amanda Edwards, the former at-large Houston city council member who is the fourth "favorite" in the race, has the solid pedigree and the consultant-speak down pat.  She's gotten some late media assistance, probably too late, but maybe the Black woman vote is undersampled in the polls and she sneaks into the runoff.  Does "Moderate Millennial" bang anybody's shutters?

That brings us to Cubic Zirconia "More Mexican/Good Stock", aka Christine Costello, aka Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez.  As the nickname I've given her implies, she has considerably less worth than what you might see at first glance.  Not for lack of promotion by the Texas Tribune and their CEO and co-founder Evan A. Smith, that's for sure.

So in the absence of any good journalism, you should read all the way through John's thread.


It's ten Tweets, with a few links and some video and audio.   CTzR has not responded, as best as I can determine, to any of the allegations above.  She and Hegar have recently squabbled over a few things, so it's not like Ms. Tzintzún Ramirez plays the "lalala I can't hear you" game.

John G and me are biased, of course.  He works on Sema Hernandez's campaign and I've been a supporter, financial and social media and otherwise, since her run against Beto in 2018, where she got a fourth of the primary vote, winning several counties.


Despite that, she was dismissed by Smith at the TexTrib (according to Hernandez.  Smith has not responded to the allegation below).


The voters in the Texas Democratic primary are currently in the process of rendering a verdict on the viability of Hernandez's candidacy, but I do not think the seriousness of it has ever been -- or should have been -- in question.  And in any case, Evan Smith would not be the judge of who is or isn't a serious candidate, no matter how deep our democracy has sunk into oligarchy.

So if any of this is something you'd like to have a say in, at the ballot box, between now and next Tuesday evening, please go to it.  As a reminder:


See you at the polling place.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Debate debacle and White House update*

(Ed. note: *Update below.  I'm refocusing what has been titled "Election 2020 Update" weekly posts to the presidential race, and using that header for downballot races going forward.)


It's impossible to overstate how awful last night was.  For Democratic candidates not named Bernie Sanders (see what I did there?), for the supporters, for the DNC, for CBS and moderators Gayle King and Norah O'Donnell, and notably for the establishment patrons who paid $1700-$3200 for a seat in the auditorium and then cheered and booed like drunks at a football game.  There is no better reason to turn these fora back over to the League of Women Voters than what was demonstrated last evening.  I threw in the towel before the first commercial break, so hats off to those of you who endured any more of the shitshow than that.

Dylan Matthews, German Lopez, and Jen Kirby at Vox, who declared Bernie, Trump, marijuana legalization, and the city of New York winners.

(T)o win on Tuesday night, Sanders just needed to hold his own. And he did. Despite candidates lobbing both familiar (abolishing private insurance, past anti-gun-control votes) and new (praising left-leaning dictators’ social programs) attacks on him, Sanders didn’t lose his cool, and his opponents were never able to really dig into him.

More winning-by-not-losing from Joan Greve at The Guardian and CNN's Chris Cillizza.  But the editor at-large of the "The Most Trusted Name in News" also thought BootEdgeEdge and Biden and Klobuchar won, and literally nobody else thinks that.

Mayo Pete did get high scores for jackassery, however.


If you'd like to read a summary of the Plutocracy Follies, see #WineCaveDebate.

Warren got middling reviews, which was not what she needed.

(F)or someone who doesn’t support the use of filibuster, Elizabeth Warren sure did dominate the microphone on Tuesday night. [...] Warren quickly found herself on the receiving end of an angry crowd as she excoriated Bloomberg for his and his company’s past that is littered with sexual harassment accusations. It’s extraordinary that Warren’s attempt to champion the women who have been silenced by his non-disclosure agreements was met with furious booing. [...] (she) would have ground Michael Bloomberg into dust over sexism (and failure to release his tax returns) if the moderators had allowed her.

It's old Uncle Joe who needs a win in the Palmettos next week worse than anyone.


Meh. We'll see.  If he noses Bernie out in SC and then in Texas, he'll still have some life.

Klobmentum should be out this time next week.  Steyer might get a small boost on Tuesday, enough for him to keep spending.  Shitty Pete and Bloomer are going all the way to Milwaukee no matter what.  So what does Liz do with a string of thirds and fourths a week from now?

It's a toss-up for me whether she stays in or drops out, and likewise whether she endorses Bernie or not if she exits.  She'll watch the returns next Tuesday night, like us, and decide.

CNN has more town halls tonight with Bloomberg, Biden, Klobuchar, and Warren.

(Update, Weds. 2/26 p.m.): From Warren's town hall.


So the trending Twitter hashtags went from #SandersWarren2020 and #WarrenforVP to #PrimaryWarren and #NeverWarren in about 24 hours.  Thus is the fickle nature of politics on social media.  Nevertheless, I see dimming job prospects for Liz in a Sanders administration.  That is, if she's being truthful here.  Why would she lie, after all.  (Sidebar: Chris Matthews really needs to be 'retired' by MSDNC.  Like yesterday.)

I promised more #BernieinTexas but I'm forgoing that for non-biased journalistic standards.  Here's a few links I've been holding that are relevant.

-- The DNC may have paved the way for Julian Assange's acquittal

-- Sanders' support in Texas grows, but voters are split on Medicare for All, specifically ditching private insurance (note: I would not describe 20% as a "split".  YMMV)

-- Two Democrats filed a lawsuit in Florida to block Bernie Sanders from appearing on the ballot in that state as a Democrat.

The Florida Democratic Party labeled the complaint “ridiculous,” and the Sanders campaign called it “spurious.”

The complaint also seeks to prevent state election officials from counting any votes Sanders has already received. More than 244,000 Democrats have already voted by mail in Florida.

And there will be another presidential debate the day after Super Tuesday.


CHICAGO, IL — 21 presidential candidates will take part in a unique cross-partisan debate March 4 in Chicago, organized by the Free & Equal Elections Foundation.

Spanning both major parties and most national minor parties, these 21 candidates will demonstrate that Americans across the political spectrum can come together for vigorous yet respectful debate that can change the tenor of the nation’s disastrous political discourse.

At a time when a staggering two out of three Americans think we need to make it easier for third-party and independent candidates to run for office, this Open Presidential Debate will help voters and would-be voters learn about more of their options during this pivotal election. At the same time, 9 in 10 voters think it’s important that the candidate they vote for this year will actively work toward unifying the country and making it less divisive.

The confirmed candidates include:

Robert Ardini, Republican Party
Ken Armstrong, Libertarian Party
Don Blankenship, Constitution Party
Mosie Boyd, Democratic Party
Brian Carroll, American Solidarity Party
Mark Charles, Independent
Souraya Faas, Libertarian Party
Erik Gerhardt, Libertarian Party
Howie Hawkins, Green Party
Zoltan Istvan, Republican Party
Jo Jorgensen, Libertarian Party
Adam Kokesh, Libertarian Party
Charles Kraut, Constitution Party
Gloria La Riva, Party for Socialism & Liberation
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry, Green Party
J.R. Myers, Life and Liberty Party
Sam Robb, Libertarian Party
Mark Stewart, Democratic Party
Vermin Supreme, Libertarian Party
Arvin Vohra, Libertarian Party
Ben Zion, Transhumanist Party

“When record numbers of Americans support opening up the US political system to more voices and choices, it’s disappointing that the Republican and Democratic Parties work so hard to shut them out. We feel the time is right to create an inspiring cross-partisan dialogue that can address the important issues facing US voters,” said Free & Equal founder Christina Tobin.

Co-hosted by Open the Debates, the debate is aiming to shift the political conversation toward constructive, respectful, and solution-oriented debate. The cumulative debate format will provide a balanced and informative dialogue among the candidates.

“We’re building this event as a prototype for the kind of meaningful discourse and debate people are thirsting for, as well as a platform for the growing political reform movement and all U.S. citizens to weigh in at the presidential level. Instead of begging for better rules, better formats, and better topics, we’re creating the alternative to make the Commission on Presidential Debates and media gatekeeper debates obsolete,” said Open the Debates founder Eli Beckerman.

In addition to the March 4 debate, Free & Equal will release a Blockchain Election Assistant App this year to promote transparency and empower voters with information about all their ballot choices. Powered by Nexus, the app will provide access to very detailed candidate information, as well as educational videos and debate archives. Free & Equal and Open the Debates are also co-hosting an Open Presidential Debate during the general election.
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Tuesday, February 25, 2020

#DemDebate: Round 2 with Bloomer


He's been doing nothing but debate prep for the past week in order to avoid another disaster.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (postponed) a CNN town hall slated for Monday to prepare for Tuesday’s debate in South Carolina.

The Great Shitlib Hope has been a tremendous letdown to this point.

(W)hile other Democratic presidential candidates held rallies in Super Tuesday states throughout the weekend, Bloomberg was busy preparing for his second debate appearance set for Tuesday in South Carolina. Bloomberg’s campaign event in Utah last week has been his only public appearance thus far since last week’s debate.

Given his stumbles during last week’s performance and his decision to skip the first four primaries, Bloomberg is heading into the debate in South Carolina knowing that he needs to show an improved performance days before the state’s primary. Bloomberg is also hanging his hopes on gaining a substantial amount of delegates from next week from Super Tuesday, according to the Wall Street Journal, which will be his first appearance on the ballot in 14 states.

He wants to make tonight all about Bernie, and he may get help in that regard.

“It’s everyone’s last chance before Super Tuesday to really challenge his record and his ideas,” Bloomberg’s campaign told TPM. “If you’re not willing to take on the frontrunner at this stage in the race, when will you be?”

[...]

“If everyone else can’t find the courage to take [Sanders] on, they don’t deserve to win the nomination ...”

It's a safe bet that Biden, BootEdgeEdge, Klobuchar, and Warren accept that challenge.  Of the seven onstage, Steyer seems most primed to take point against his fellow one-tenth of 1%er.

This will be the last debate until after Super Tuesday -- a week from today -- when 14 states will hold primaries. With an uncommonly crowded field of formidable candidates, it’s possible that as many as half a dozen candidates could take at least one state on March 3. That would only add to the feeling that this race may continue into the spring (and maybe even into the convention) without a presumptive nominee.

(Conversely, it also could) add to fears among the Democratic establishment that Sanders could roll to the nomination while his rivals tussle over the moderate vote.

So Bernie will be playing a lot of defense, and he'll get scored by the pundits and the public on the basis of how many pucks he blocks.


Post-debate wrap tomorrow, with a weekly Election 2020 Update included.
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