38 million bucks, 50 million yard signs, 9 points behind

And here comes the Zodiac Killer to finish him off.

Cruz challenges O’Rourke to let him debate him at CNN Town Hall in McAllen. Says O’Rourke is hiding. But “Beto doesn’t get to hide in the protective cocoon of the media,” Cruz says #TXSen #txlege ⁦@tedcruz⁩ ⁦@BetoORourke⁩ pic.twitter.com/FWj0LU3vlB

— Bob Garrett (@RobertTGarrett) October 12, 2018

"Every left-wing radical in the country wants to turn Texas blue — and they are sending their money to Comrade Beto," @TedCruz says. #txsen

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 12, 2018

At Houston rally, @TedCruz refers to @MichaelAvenatti, "who I think right now is the presumptive Democratic nominee in 2020"

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 12, 2018

As you may be reading and hearing from the chattering consultant class, Beto is going to have to start punching back.

Harold Cook, a Democratic strategist in Texas, said the reality at the moment is that "two candidates are defining Beto, and only one candidate is defining Cruz." He said O'Rourke is "going to have to present a compelling reason why voters should fire their incumbent."

"Against a candidate like Cruz, I don't think it's even that tough and it doesn't take that long," he said, pointing out that Cruz's hardline approach has rankled some Texans. "But it's time to do it."

Miller, the GOP consultant, agreed that "if you want to bring Ted Cruz back to Earth, you're going to have to go after him."

He said he didn't know if that tactic would ultimately succeed, given that time is starting to run short to make a real difference. But he made clear that if O'Rourke doesn't put his money into a "real aggressive, kind of mean campaign," then the "race is lost."

More from Cook, who's been grifting off Texas Democratic politics for so many years that he certainly understands what losing entails.  So he's credible here.

O’Rourke in campaign appearance after campaign appearance and in interview after interview since entering the race in March 2017 has said repeatedly “I’m not running against anyone” as a way of telling voters he prefers the high road.

But it also reinforces an image that Texas Democrats of the past two decades can’t seem to shake: They seem to prefer losing honorably to getting their hands soiled in a winning effort.

Ahem. 

Here's a little unsolicited advice that goes beyond what Richard Linklater and Antonio Arellano, et.al., have already been doing on your behalf, Beto.

-- Re-invite Cruz to the CNN townhall debate next Thursday before he bullies his way in.  Have some boxing gloves ready to put on; circle his podium in a shadowbox-punch routine.  Or challenge the pudgy Cuban to a 5k run after the debate.

"How about a guacamole eating contest for all the marbles, Ted?"

-- Educate this dumbshit Republican on the differences between communism, socialism, democratic socialism, and social democracy.  Remind Poop that you're a Blue Dog, which is why all the actual socialists in Texas aren't voting for you.  (I'm not a legitimate socialist myself; more of a social democrat, and for that matter, a lousy Democrat and kind of anti-social these days.  These labels are hard; it's no wonder Cruz and his home-schooled ilk can't get them correct.)

-- Raffy, like Trump, has a seriously bad addiction to hypocrisy and prevarication.  A quality oppo research effort should be able to produce  -- should already have produced -- reams of examples to throw in his face next Thursday.

Start there, Bob, and hurry up.  I hope somebody who reads this blog uses the 'email post' link at the bottom and sends this to the campaign.  Sort of like Kuff, they have chosen to completely ignore me over the course of the past year; can't imagine why.  Maybe it's time for a new strategery, fellas.  Who knows?  If you take my advice for once I might even be able to vote for ya.

GOTV postpourri

And just like that *snaps fingers* the campaigns re-focus for the sprint to the finish.

-- Besides the now-tentative TX07 debate on Monday (take note of the update) and the Beto-only CNN townhall next Thursday, there's a few more things going on in H-Town that merit comment.  First, Senator Sylvia -- soon to be Representative Sylvia -- does her part to get out the Latin@vote tomorrow.

(Click the image for a clear view; go here to RSVP for free)

Consistent readers of Brains will remember that I have written on a handful of occasions that 2018 should be a no-excuses year for Latino/a turnout.  And at least one of the times I blogged that was when the Trump administration had already declared war on immigrants, acting essentially as if all people of slightly brown pigmentation were an enemy of the state, and started sending them out of the country, whether they were legal citizens or not.

So there are circumstances under which historically low Latin@ turnout, due to the terrorism of the neo-Nazis currently in charge in Washington -- to say nothing (yet) of their junior partners in Waller County -- can be excused.

But I still don't think Stace's excuse is a good one.

And that shouldn't be interpreted as reneging on the advice that I gave everybody back here.

The simple fact, as reported now in repetitive fashion in corporate media and non-, in the mainstream and out, is that Latinxs probably cannot be turned out to vote in numbers that can sway elections in favor of Democrats.  Certainly some local elections in some states, but what these articles are telling me is that it is time to stop beating this semi-dead horse.  (No offense to the hard work of the excellent young folks of Jolt.)

There is ample evidence in Texas that it is a pretty red horse, anyway.

Hispanic voters in @QuinnipiacPoll:@BetoORourke 61, @tedcruz 37@LupeValdez 50, @GovAbbott 46#txsen #txgov #tx2018 https://t.co/IBl2pXzI41

— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 11, 2018

-- We have been reading for some time now that Beto O'Rourke's fate lies in the hands of these intractable non-voting, mostly RGV-dwelling brown voters.  But so does that of Gina Ortiz Jones, a little further up the Rio Grande along the Big Bend, and it appears she will suffer the same fate as Pete Gallegos did in SD-19's special election last month.

Yes, seemingly everybody except Charles Kuffner understands that it's not just a Latin@ problem ... it's a Texas Democratic Party problem.

-- On the bright side for Team Donkey, Harris County Judge Ed Emmett became the latest moderate (sic) Republican to endorse Democratic lieutenant governor challenger Mike Collier.  He did so in his interview with the Houston Chronicle op-ed board, which endorsed him.  I can't believe I'm agreeing with Campos; their comments are condescending and offensive.

Vote for Collier if you choose -- I cannot -- and vote for Lina Hidalgo over Emmett.  Still wondering if any of those local Republicans incensed at the incumbent over the Astrodome will betray him.

With respect to the Chronicle's endorsements generally ... disregard.  Yes, blind hogs find acorns like Diane Trautman, and you should be voting for Dem judges without me telling you to or them not.

For example, they endorsed James Horwitz's GOP opponent in the Harris County Probate Court #4 race, which made me laugh out loud.  I'm voting for neither in this contest; what's hilarious to me is thinking about how mad this must have made little Noah, who marks himself as making some progress in not voting for any Republicans this year (LMAO).

Note: If the Chronic has cut you off from seeing these articles by trying to force you to buy a subscription, I apologize.  Let me know in the comments if that's the case.

-- Finally, guess who's coming to town Tuesday.

• Rockstar Activist: 1 Ticket, Cash Bar and Lite Bites
• Phone Bank Captain: 1 Ticket, VIP Reception With Open Bar and Lite Bites
• Block Walk Organizer: 2 Tickets, VIP Reception With Open Bar and Private Dinner Reception with Mr. Avenatti

That's $250, $500, and $2500 respectively, in case you were interested.

I sorta doubt whether any of the attendees are going to mention that there are some Democrats who hold him responsible for the Kavanaugh Comeback, and the subsequent Kavanaugh Bump in Republican enthusiasm that recent polling appears to reflect.

Brandon Rottinghaus, political science professor at the University of Houston, says the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has probably hardened the already deep divisions between Democrats and Republicans.

“That hardening is really translating into what we see in the Senate race in particular,” Rottinghaus says. “I think that right now, Ted Cruz has got a slight lead, and the likelihood is that’s going to continue.”

This has led to both RG Ratcliffe at Texas Monthly and Justin Miller at the Texas Observer performing Beto's last rites yesterday (something this reporter did on Monday).

We have debates

-- Cumbersome versus LPF, as a warm-up to MNF.

GOP incumbent John Culberson and Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, candidates for Houston's 7th Congressional District, will debate on Monday, Oct. 15 at 6 p.m. at the University of Houston's Student Center Theatre.

The race has escalated into a slew of personal attacks over health care issues, a potentially decisive issue in the race. The Cook Political Report considers the race a toss-up. The event will be streamed online at abc13.com and Univision.

#TeamLizzie is hosting a couple of far west side potluck watch parties.

Update: Culberson's been in the hospital so this debate might not happen.

New: #TX07 campaigns working to reschedule Monday debate after @JohnCulberson spent 10 days in hospital following surgery for complicated diverticulitis. Letter today from Culberson campaign to @Lizzie4Congress campaign: https://t.co/dnqx7DOo9U

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 11, 2018

-- Beto versus ... Not-Tough-Enough-to-Show-Up Ted Cruz.

.@CNN announces new details re: Oct. 18 town hall with @BetoORourke: 9 p.m., McAllen Performing Arts Center, moderated by @DanaBashCNN. News release says @TedCruz "declined CNN’s invitation to participate in the town hall." #txsen #RGV

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 9, 2018

The still-ongoing NYT poll gives the Zodiac Killer an eight-point lead.  Sometimes it's difficult to comprehend how so many Texans can be so willfully ignorant about something so obvious as the glaring fraud that is Cruz.

-- A week ago, HPN covered a debate between TX02 challengers Todd Litton and Dan Crenshaw which occurred the week before that.  In this excerpt, you'd be somewhat hard-pressed to tell which one was the Democrat and which one the Republican.  I'll just black out their names and you can check the link to see.

“Nobody seriously thinks that we’re going to put a wall across every single inch,” Xxxxxxx said. “It’s just a geographic impossibility. ... ”

“Government should be staying out of the doctor’s office,” Xxxxxxxx said. “We don’t want government in the doctor’s office telling women, or anybody, what they can and should do ...”

This district will either get redder or bluer in 2022, after the Census and depending on what the Texas Lege looks like following the presidential election.

In past cycles, such a contest in Texas’ 2^nd Congressional District wouldn’t even be close. Poe regularly won reelection by double digits. But in 2018?

“It is competitive, I think,” says David Branham, a professor of political science UH-Downtown who attended the debate. “You have to do well if you’re a Republican if you expect to win. If you run poorly, I think there’s a very good chance that you could lose this district.”

The district includes wealthy, conservative suburbs in northeastern Harris County, like Kingwood. It also has more liberal Houston neighborhoods, like Montrose.

“But in that center part, where it connects in the northwest side, I think you’re going to see a lot of change in that part of the district,” Branham says. That’s because the district’s demographics are changing. Hispanic residents now make up about a third of the population, and that percentage is growing.

This is also an area hit especially hard during Harvey. Rice University political scientist Bob Stein says Litton has been aggressive in courting the votes of flood victims.

“I’ve seen some of his public meetings where he goes around telling people, ‘Have you gotten your small business loan application in? Have you gotten your FEMA money in?’ He’s sort of kind of replacing, ′cause there’s no incumbent here, what Ted Poe would normally do as a congressman,” Stein says.

Crenshaw certainly hasn’t ignored the issue of Harvey. During his debate with Litton, Crenshaw said he’d seek a seat on the House Armed Services Committee, where he could pressure the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to complete flood infrastructure projects. But that’s not the central message of his campaign.

“The campaign has played up, ‘I’m a Republican, I support the party, and I support Donald Trump,’” Stein says. “That may be enough, but it’s not enough, I think, to kind of inspire what I will call a heavy turnout in the district.”

Even with a lower than usual turnout, Stein says Republicans probably hold the edge for now, “but nobody’s putting a lot of investment in the future. Nobody thinks this district is going to be here in 2022.”

Why? In between now and 2022 is the next census. “We’re going to get three new congressional seats in Texas, and they’re going to have to go somewhere,” Stein says.

It will most likely be Republicans who will decide where those seats go during the next round of redistricting. But in drawing safe GOP seats, they’ll still have to work around growing minority populations that are more likely to vote Democratic.

“The configurations will be to protect longer-term (Congressional) veterans,” Stein says. “If Crenshaw wins this time, he’s not high on the seniority list.” Which means that Crenshaw needs to do more than just win this November if he’s hoping to last in Congress. He needs to win big.

-- And way back before Labor Day, Joseph Kopser and Chip Roy, TX21's combatants to replace Lamar Smith, went head to head.  The Libertarian in this race is at least interesting.

PAC $$$ to Beto's rescue

And not a minute too soon.



Isn't it a good thing he said he wasn't going to accept any?

On the bright side ... couldn't the same be said of Greg Abbott?  And Dan Patrick?  And Ken Paxton?  And Sid Miller?  Every last one of these sorry sumbitches are just like Trump: a weak man's idea of what a strong man looks like.  All talk.  All hat and no cattle.

(Keep an eye on that Upshot poll going on right now.  The early numbers look grim.)

Beto's bad news

Last Friday morning at the top of this brief aggre-post, I summarized what appeared to be some dark clouds moving across the Second Coming's horizon.  Yesterday the CBS News Battleground Tracker poll revealed Cruz in the lead by six points ...

 ... and this shocker from the crosstabs, courtesy Evan Smith's Twitter feed.

In new @CBSNews poll, @tedcruz viewed as more honest and trustworthy and more relatable than @BetoORourke https://t.co/KJl3xdFk3B #txsen #tx2018 pic.twitter.com/CUVnvO9BnK

— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 7, 2018

Gotta say: if those numbers are not as reliable as all of the polls taken the day before Election Day 2016 (which showed Hillary Clinton winning the presidency), then your man Beto is dead in the water, Democrats.

Still, it's a little early to quit on the last best hope (no matter what Mike Collier keeps saying) for the Donks next month.  And in addition to Latinx turnout, whatever strength or weakness exists in African American votes is going to get an assist tonight from some of Houston's biggest and brightest stars on the hip-hop front.

Now that is going to be a party.

(One more thing worth noting: when it comes to winning, Republicans put aside whatever grudges they have with each other, however great or small, and focus on the end result.  If you want to understand why they keep winning and Democrats keep losing, right there is a great place to start looking.  I have never known a group of people that could cling to a grievance any harder, for a longer period of time, than liberals.)

The Weekly Wrangle

With the deadline to register to vote in the November midterm elections tomorrow, the Texas Progressive Alliance encourages you to double-check your status if you have already registered to be certain you are ready to cast your ballot.

The state's website link to request a voter registration application (within the first link above) crashed and stayed down for several hours this past Saturday.

The state's voter rolls have surged to 15.6 million Texans, surpassing the 14 million registered voters since the last midterm election (2014).  More than 400,0000 have signed up to vote since March, and Harris County led the way with over 55,000 of those.

On to the roundup of lefty blog posts and news from around the Lone Star State from last week!

The Texas Tribune collects everything you need to know about voting this autumn.

Texas Standard says that the Brennan Center will be closely watching Texas again for indications of the kind of voter suppression tactics -- excessively strict application of the voter id requirement, voters illegally purged from the rolls, and the like -- the state has long been guilty of.

Maria Recio at the Austin Statesman describes how John Cornyn secured the necessary votes to get Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court.

Grits for Breakfast seems encouraged by Greg Abbott's apparent evolution on marijuana decriminalization, revealed in his debate with Lupe Valdez ten days ago.  Michael Barajas at TO is somewhat more skeptical.

The Fort Worth Star Telegram has the details on Ag Commissioner Sid Miller complaining about a homemade yard sign, and the police going to the woman's Central Texas home and confiscating it.

Never forget who Sid Miller is: a fascist who tramples on the free speech that offends him.

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals halted the execution of Juan Segundo after questions about his mental capability were raised.

David Collins posted Parts II ("Shut Up About Purity Tests") and III ("The Harder Way") of 'Demanding Better', his pleadings to the progressive electorate to just let the two-party system die already.

Brains and Eggs blogged about the debate between the Houston firefighters union president and Mayor Sylvester Turner over Proposition 2, the 'pay parity' referendum.

SocraticGadfly sees that the Corps of Engineers could soon be pushing an Ike Dike, which he continues to oppose.

Charles Watson at Rural Texas Voices writes about substance abuse trends in Texas.

Texas Vox wants you to know that the state has a plan to ship nuclear waste through your neighborhood, and there is still time for you to speak out about it.

Jim Schutze's observations about the plight of the homeless in the Dallas Observer reveal the sociopathy of city leaders and those who support them in this endeavor.

And the Texas Observer's collection of "Strangest State" news (from the third quarter of the year -- July, August, September) features a woman in Corpus who spoke at a city council meeting dressed as a cockroach.

🚨🚨🚨 Patricia Polastri is at City Council dressed as a roach 🚨🚨🚨🚨

She brought a bag of roaches last month: https://t.co/5OQqDFyWgn pic.twitter.com/zLknHaDKaN

— Ghoulie Garcia 👻🎃🕸 (@reporterjulie) July 17, 2018

Sunday Funnies