Tuesday Toon: The Centrist Democrat's Dilemma

(Democrat pictured may or may not be Beto O'Rourke.)

The Weekly Wrangle

With less than a hundred days remaining before the November election, the Texas Progressive Alliance's blog posts and related news took note of the temperature rising on statewide candidates and debates -- or lack thereof.

PDiddie at Brains and Eggs watched as Ted Cruz suddenly flinched, probably at his sagging internal polling numbers, and acquiesced to five debates with his surging challenger, Beto O'Rourke.

Socratic Gadfly gives his snarky lowdown on the proposed Cruz-O'Rourke face-offs.

Justin Miller at the Texas Observer sees Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial candidate Mike Collier with a problem: Dan Patrick ain't taking his bait.  The following excerpt reveals the reasons:

Patrick’s unwillingness to debate Collier is the calculation of an incumbent on his heels. Recall that Patrick debated his Democratic opponent, Leticia Van de Putte, in 2014 and even debated then-San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro over immigration policy, just for fun. Now, he has a lot to lose and little to gain from having to defend his anti-trans bathroom crusade on TV for potentially millions to see. With a huge incumbency advantage and an inherently favorable electorate, he has absolutely no incentive to engage with Collier on anything. Property taxes might be soaring around the state, but Patrick’s betting there’s nary a normal Texan who’d directly associate that with his record as lieutenant governor— and he’d prefer to keep it that way, for good reason. Patrick has blamed local officials for rising property taxes, passed toothless relief bills that don’t do anything, all while avoiding the real problem: the GOP’s endless anti-tax fervor has made it so that the state doesn’t have enough money to fund public education and other services.

Meanwhile, the TSTA Blog is not surprised by the lite gov's intransigence on making schools safer.

Both Patrick and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller were urged to stop ignoring their challengers and debate them by the Houston Chronicle's editorial board, but the Dallas News has a more pragmatic view of the likelihood of downballot debates (tldr; slim and none, and Slim just left town).  TXAG Ken Paxton has been notably duplicitous about squaring off with Justin Nelson.



Progrexas borrows the story from the TexTrib about Dem ag commish candidate Kim Olson's tribulations while serving in Iraq.

The Los Angeles Times reported on the allegations against Olson in 2006, and she discusses the episode at length in her memoir, “Iraq and Back.” But until the Austin American-Statesman published a story about the investigation earlier this month, the ignominious end to Olson’s military career had not figured in the race for agriculture commissioner.

(The AAS piece is the long read, and highly recommended.)

Every single post from last week at Grits for Breakfast also comes with a 'recommended reading' checkmark, but highlighted for the Wrangle is this take in Scott Henson's weekly roundup about the $7 million legal fight AG Paxton has waged to prevent air conditioning TDCJ facilities for the oldest and most ill of the state's incarcerated.

Ty Clevenger at Lawflog notes that some members of the Texas federal judiciary seem to be involved in a #MeToo moment.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit is investigating three San Antonio bankruptcy judges in response to allegations that they covered up sexual misconduct by the former court clerk and permitted retaliation against a whistleblower, according to records provided by a former employee.

Durrel Douglas at Houston Justice tells us about #ProjectOrange, which has as its goal to register a thousand people to vote who are behind bars.

Jonathan Tilove at First Reading sees the ongoing litigation against Alex Jones as an existential moment for fake news. 

Cary Clack at the Texas Observer implores Greg Abbott to do the right thing and remove that dishonest Confederate plaque from the Capitol.

Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report has news about the TRS vote last week.

The board of the Texas Retirement System has reduced its assumed rate of return on its investments, adding another $1.7 billion liability to its pension fund.

The vote, an outcome of the pension fund’s most recent five-year experience study, lowers the rate of investment returns from 8 percent to a more realistic 7.25 percent, which mirrors recent economic outlooks. The decision, which has been discussed for a number of months, was no surprise to either teacher groups or the Texas Retired Teachers Association.

“The burden is now on the Texas legislature to step up and provide the necessary funding ... and give educators peace of mind that they will not face cuts in their pensions.”

Neil at You Must Act Right Now took part in a protest at the home of an owner of the location of the proposed baby jail in Houston.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston borrows a talking point from the GOP and condemns the use of the word "socialist".  (He's old; he doesn't get the new kids on the Democratic bloc.)

Hopkins County cattle rancher Karl Ebel is an East Texas Taoist philosopher preaching the gospel of preservation in Greensource DFW's latest installment of 'People and Prairies'.

The Texas Living Waters Project frets about the decline of the alligator gar.

The repeated spraying of both public visitors and winged migrants of a Hill Country refuge spotlights the dangers of uncareful pesticide usage, writes Monica Maeckle at the Rivard Report.

Chip Wells at Beyond Bones begins a series about lost or forgotten Houston sports history, starting with the baseball stadium that would not die (not the Astrodome, but close).

The Smithsonian has a fascinating reveal: according to recent artifact discoveries, there were people living in Texas pre-Clovis period.

Archaeologists have been hunting for signs of the first inhabitants of the Americas at an area known as the Gault Site outside Killeen, Texas, ever since anthropologists discovered signs of early human occupation there in 1929. However, due to poor management of the land, looting, and even a commercial pay-to-dig operation, over the years, many of the upper layers have become irreparably damaged.

Then, in 1999, the University of Texas at Austin leased the land and began academic excavations. Digging deeper, archaeologists found 2.6 million artifacts at the site, including many from the Clovis culture, once believed to be the first people to settle North America. But the latest discoveries to be unearthed at Gault are arguably the most exciting to date: unknown projectile points, which push back human occupation of the area at least 2,500 years before the Clovis civilization, reports Kevin Wheeler at the Texas Standard.

And Harry Hamid reveals more about his origins.

Sunday TDS Funnies

I thought the pearl-clutching was a nice touch ...

Ted Cruz blinks; five debates scheduled

A promising development for Bob.  Let's go to the best Tweets from #TXSEN yesterday, which trended nationally for awhile in the afternoon.

News: @TedCruz challenges @BetoORourke to five debates over the next three months, each on different topics https://t.co/gzNMPzBE02 #txsen

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) July 25, 2018

New: @tedcruz is challenging Dem @BetoORourke to five one-hour #txsen debates.

Each will be on a Friday night, focusing on a policy area:

🔘: Aug.31, Dallas
🔘: Sept. 14, McAllen
🔘: Sept. 21, SA
🔘: Oct. 5, Houston
🔘: Oct. 12, Lubbockhttps://t.co/C4IuKcYLNu via @toddgillman

— Forrest Milburn (@forrestmilburn) July 25, 2018

The paid politico POV (not unreasonable for once):

This is a sign that Ted Cruz's internal numbers are not headed in the right direction https://t.co/UMrxd1THMW

— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) July 25, 2018

Open this 7-count thread from Gadfly for a snark-laden rundown on the topics the two men will be talking about.

Well, if .@BetoORourke and .@TedCruz agree to five debates on these themes, here's what will play out 1/: https://t.co/9onrfWnhQU

— @realDonaldTrump 🌻 (@SocraticGadfly) July 25, 2018

And finally, the wagers are being offered:

Not at all. I’m telling you what the Cruz campaign thinks.

Let’s wager on the margin of #txsen to benefit @NavySEALfnd.

Over 6 I win. Under 6 you win. $500? https://t.co/5ewD0uJWFl

— Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) July 25, 2018

As Gadfly and I covered in yesterday's comments, we think the over/under for Cruz's margin of victory is closer to 56-44, so Mackowiak, perpetually the conservative MAGAt, wants slightly more than 53-47 to take half a grand from Demo consultant Joe Householder above.  No bet.

What this debate schedule does -- or should do -- is put pressure on Dan Patrick and Sid Miller to get off their high horses.  Don't expect anything like sunlight or fair play from Ken Paxton or anybody else down the ballot, however.   Should O'Rourke show out well and Cruz falter a bit, especially if our Cuban Canadian representative in the upper federal chamber holds to his 5-appearance commitment, and if the spin doesn't overtake the truth ... O'Rourke's rising tide lifts all Democratic boats.

Most importantly, it's not so much as August yet and everybody is paying attention.

Beto O'Rourke and Lizzie P. Fletcher

Here are the steps in every statewide race in Texas for the past 20+ years:

1. Shiny new Democrat declares candidacy, promises the moon, trashes incumbent Republican
2. Media churns out glowing praise, hope by the truckload
3. Early polls show Democrat within striking distance
4. Democrats get whipped into a frenzy, talk trash, make bold predictions about "Blue Wave"
5. Every Republican wins by double digits
6. Democratic officials claim moral victory
7. Democrats deny ever predicting their candidate would win
8. Media and Democrats blame the electorate for low turnout, inability to understand what's at stake, "voting against their own self-interest"
9. Repeat in 4 years

It looks like we are at step 4. Right on schedule!

We could probably add a 4.5 for 2018: "Democrats throw unprecedented wads of cash at the Great (Mostly) White Hopes".

I will not bury the lede to save the reading time of those who don't agree, much less respect, my opinion regarding the state of play for Democrats in Texas (and elsewhere) in the coming midterm elections.  The truth stings, sometimes as painfully as a Portuguese man o' war in the Gulf of Mexico.

I won't be able to vote for either of the two federal office standard-bearers for the Donks in November because they simply do not represent my values, and because they are far too interested in trying to win by seeking the votes of Trump-soured, moderate (sic) Republicans.

Beto O'Rourke is Third Way, lies about his PAC money (more here), whines about Ted Cruz not debating him when he refused to debate his own primary opponents, and can't get on board with a universal health care plan even though he claims to support such.

LPF is pretty much the same centrist stooge, except that she's gone a little further in the wrong direction, demonstrating antipathy to the working class.

Let me be even more candid with respect to Texas Democratic challengers running against incumbent Republicans: if I could vote for Dayna Steele, or Mike Seigel, or Adrienne Bell, Sri Preston Kulkarni, Linsey Fagan, Vanessa Adia, Jana Sanchez, or Julie Oliver,  I would do so in a heartbeat.  I could even vote for MJ Hegar and Gina Ortiz Jones (it would be a tough chew-and-swallow choking down their military/CIA histories, but I think I could manage it) .  Not Colin Allred, though.  Nor, for that matter, Democrats running in open seats like Joe Kopser and Todd Litton.

Even if I did vote for O'Rourke and Fletcher, they would not represent me.  They would believe that their strategy of running to the right succeeded, and their government service would reflect being beholden to the afore-mentioned centrist, corporate Democrats, and even moreso their friends just a bit further to starboard.

Bob O'Rourke, gifted a shopping center in El Paso's barrio for his birthday by his parents, proceeded while on city council to push out the poor people and gentrify the area, raising the value of his property accordingly.  That's how you make City Hall work for you, by Gawd.

LPF is practically James Cargas with a vagina.

I'll keep an open mind about them (in case they pull a few progressive rabbits out of their pussy hats) right up to the opening of early voting in October, but today I'm taking a hard pass.  Good luck to both nevertheless.  If their strategy works they won't be missing my vote anyway.