"Meh."

Seems like the reaction in aggregate.

-- The 'pro' or Clinton argument, from Nate Silver's shop.

Roughly 1 in 5 Sanders supporters say they are going to vote for a third-party candidate. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein combined for 22 percent of the vote among Sanders’s supporters in a recent NBC/WSJ survey and 21 percent in a recent Suffolk University survey. Johnson won 17 percent of Sanders backers in a Pew Research Center poll (the poll did not test Stein). The average third-party support among Sanders’s voters in the three surveys, 20 percent, is significantly higher than the 13 percent of all voters who say they’d back Johnson or Stein. (Younger voters, who voted for Sanders in overwhelming numbers in the primary, are also far more likely to say they’d choose a third-party option or “someone else,” according to these surveys and a new poll from the University of Chicago with the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.)

Keep in mind that historically, third-party candidates -- even those down the ballot in Texas -- can poll well running up to Election Day, but then fear takes hold and they leak that support back to the majors.  So how this trend holds is one I'll be watching closely.  Harry Enten again at 538.com.

But it’s also possible (and, I would argue, probable) that because Clinton and Trump are two of the most disliked presidential candidates of all time, third-party candidates are going to do better than usual. Johnson looks especially likely to peel votes from Clinton and Trump because he will probably achieve ballot access in all 50 states, which is unusual for a non-major-party candidate.

That’s part of the reason why FiveThirtyEight is including Johnson’s chances in these projections. We aren’t explicitly projecting Stein’s vote, in part because polls include her less often than they include Johnson, and in part because she probably won’t be on the ballot in some states. You’ll notice, however, that the projected vote shares for Clinton, Trump and Johnson usually don’t add up to 100 percent. (In Missouri, for instance, they sum to 98.7 percent.) That’s because the model reserves a small share for “other” candidates, including Stein, in states where we expect at least one of them to appear on the ballot.

(This is what Charles did back here -- scroll to the bottom -- and is an acceptable rounding method among pollsters and political scientists.)

-- The 'con' argument: Trump, Johnson and Stein all took today as the start of the campaign to begin wooing Sandernistas to their side.  It's downhill for Clinton from here, in two interpretations; one good and one bad.  Can she ride her sled all the way down without getting upset?  It's up to her now.  No excuses.

-- The satire.

The Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign announced plans for bumper stickers and t-shirts emblazoned with their candidate’s new slogan, “Meh.”

The slogan change comes on the heels of Ms. Clinton winning the endorsement of her fiercest and most stalwart Democratic primary challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Several Clinton camp staffers have told the press the slogan is meant to capitalize on the general feeling of apathy that they hope Sanders supporters will now feel toward the election, and that it will inspire them to accept the status quo as a “perfectly acceptable alternative to substantive change,” one aide told a newspaper in New Jersey.

The campaign also considered, “She Could Be Worse” and “Frankly, She’s Not Trump” as well as “She’ll Disappoint You Just The Same As Obama Did.” Other slogans that could still be unveiled by Team Clinton are, “She’s Like Bernie, For Now, Until She’s Not,” and “I Like Triangulating, Cynical Politicians Like Hillary!” Focus groups reportedly also tested well with the slogan, “I’ll Vote For Another Clinton In 20 Years Because Change Is Hard!”

“We understand that familial political dynasties are kind of the exact opposite of what the Founders probably had in mind,” Helen Sussman, Chief Deputy Assistant Media Liaison for the Clinton campaign, told reporters this morning, “but well, YOLO! Also, we have to just keep reminding you, she’s not Trump. And any time you feel sad about being force fed a milquetoast status quo sellout tool of the One Percent, just remember — she’s not Trump.”

Don't forget to mention the words 'spoiler' or Supreme Court' a few times either, like Bernie has repeatedly.  'First woman president', 'Ralph Nader' and 'siphoning votes' also still work well on the shallowest of thinkers.

It's going to be a long, hot summer.

I read the news today, oh boy

-- Hillary and Bernie will make a joint campaign appearance in New Hampshire.  Some are refusing to use the 'E' word, which is almost the most pathetic thing I have seen this cycle.  Some on the left -- the real actual left -- think the Democrats are pulling their act together.  Some don't.  I don't care either way.

The only question is what his support network does.

This news, to me, is what the Democratic Party is, was, and always will be.  A conservative Democrat (head of the DLC, founder of 'The New Democrats') leaves his party in the lurch by jumping out of the race for US Senate ahead of the 2010 Red Tea Tidal Wave, now wants his old job back after making millions as a lobbyist.  No. Thanks.

-- Some people are already feeling very threatened (on behalf of Hillary Clinton) by Jill Stein and the Green Party.  They really went the extra mile on the loathing part, too.

You know the old saw: first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you ...

For the rest of the weak-kneed: Bernie is endorsing Clinton today, even if he cannot say so.  Unbunch your briefs, take a deep breath, resume more superior condescension.  You've got a real enemy, and it's standing to your right.  Your other right.

-- Trump will try to Bigfoot Clinton and Sanders by tapping his running mate, also later today.  The names most frequently mentioned have been Mike Pence, Newt Gingrich, and some retired general.

Doesn't matter; this is going to be a blowout.  Though if Pence is the choice, then Indiana should be fun to watch, like Ohio.

-- Obama, W. Bush, Biden, their wives, Ted Cruz, John Cornyn and some other Texas electeds in trouble with the law are in Dallas today for, you know, thoughts and prayers.  Greg Abbott spilled hot water on himself, so he's not coming.  Sending his wife.  I'll try to avoid every mention of this on social media today as well as in the future.

I think the one-year anniversary of Sandra Bland's arrest is a much more important occasion.  In that vein, I expect to see this win a Pulitzer:

Those cops dressed like that look like a fucking joke.

If you'd rather read about Pokemon Go taking over the world, or Amazon Prime Day, or anything like that then your news is elsewhere.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance mourns the Dallas Police Department's losses at a peaceful Black Lives Matter protest, and continues to support constructive solutions for our country's ongoing racial issues.  Here's the blog post roundup.

Off the Kuff notes some interesting aspects of national polls and how they relate to Texas.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos urges Democratic candidates to run as Democrats. Neo-liberalism and Republican-lite are not winnable options. A Gentle Reminder to Texas Democrats: Neoliberalism is not a winning solution.

The Texas Republican in charge of social services (isn't that a joke) shows the typical Republican disdain for women, their families and their health by offering mosquito repellent to fight off the Zika virus. CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is disgusted.

July is presidential nominating conventions month and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs has the lowdown on the Republicans, Democrats, and Greens (coming to Houston in August).

SocraticGadfly advises environmentalists not to get fooled by Exxon's head fakes on a carbon tax.

Texas Leftist speculates on Trump's brand of terror.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston recaps the Texas Department of Insurance's hearing on arbitration.

Asian American Action Fund writes about religion's impact on the 2016 election.

Egberto Willies had to call out a friend who has turned toward Trump.

The Lewisville Texan Journal takes note of the city's Animal Services event in coordination with the showing of "The Secret Life of Pets".

Neil at All People Have Value walked in the Sharpstown neighborhood of Houston with his sign regarding the value of everyday life. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

=====================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Better Texas Blog begins prep work for the 2017 budget process, Erika Greider at Burkablog forewarns the 2017 Texas Legislature about the looming budget battles, and Eva DeLuna Castro places the blame for Texas' tightened budget where it belongs.

Juliet Stipech and Norma Torres Mendoza argue that comprehensive immigration reform is a matter of the United States’' continued economic prosperity.

Grits for Breakfast blogs about the Dallas police shootings as "changing everything"... or nothing.

Jim Hightower posits on police violence, Black Lives Matter, and populism.

Ashton Woods at Safety in Numbers tells Pride Houston they still have a problem.

The TSTA Blog applauds Hillary Clinton's promise to reduce the role of standardized testing in public schools.

Prairie Weather wants to know if Hillary is really in the clear.

Ty Clevenger at Lawflog points out that Clinton isn't the only person in government protected by a double standard.

Zachery Taylor compares Joe Biden's 'Cancer Moonshot' to Al Gore's claims of having invented the Internet.

The Rag Blog posts details about its 50th anniversary Rag Reunion and Celebration in the fall.

TX election law decisions on voter ID, redistricting coming

Election Law Blog's Rick Hasen:

The federal challenge to Texas’s strict voter identification law is pending before the entire Fifth Circuit sitting en banc.  The Supreme Court set a soft July 20 deadline for a decision—after that the Court has invited plaintiffs to seek immediate relief for this election before the Supreme Court. There’s nothing technically binding about that date, but I expect we will see a decision by then from the Fifth Circuit, and then, whatever happens, I expect an emergency motion to the Supreme Court for whichever side loses.

Meanwhile, the never ending federal district court challenge to Texas’s redistricting remains pending in San Antonio, with a delay that at this point is as inexplicable as it is inexcusable. That case, when decided, will be on a fast-track appeal to the Supreme Court as well, but with any ruling relevant only for elections after 2016.

We are also waiting for other decisions, and one of those big ones is the appeal to the Fourth Circuit of North Carolina’s strict voting laws. That one, too, will likely end up with a request for emergency relief from SCOTUS.

Hasen has predicted that Fifth en banc will deny the photo ID appeal, sending the case on to the Supremes, where a ruling might not come until after November's election, as the court has adjourned for the summer and probably won't render a verdict until long after the first Monday in October.  Even an immediate judgment once the Court reconvenes would be very close to the start of early voting (although the change consists of not asking for ID, so your local election judges ought to easily re-adapt to the way Texas conducted elections for hundreds of years previously).  Worse, a 4-4 tie would remand back to the Fifth's decision.  So the case might have its best chance if it is stalled until there's a ninth justice.

Redistricting is going to wait for 2018, soonest, if it is struck down.

The North Carolina case might also beat Veazey v. Abbott to the Eight (or Nine, depending on how quickly Merrick Garland gets confirmed after a historic delay), and could be the precedent-setter in that event.

So more waiting, but potentially some progress as well.

*Post updated for clarity throughout

Sunday Above The Law Funnies

Nobody could have expected an attack on police

Especially not in Texas, after all.  Right?

Downtown Dallas was in lockdown early Friday after snipers shot 11 officers, five fatally, during a protest over deadly police shootings of black men elsewhere.

Three people were in custody and a fourth suspect exchanged gunfire with authorities in a parking garage at El Centro Community College into the morning, Dallas Police Chief David Brown said.

NBC Dallas Fort-Worth reported the fourth suspect had been "neutralized" at around 2:45 a.m. (3:45 ET). Earlier, he had told police negotiators that "the end is coming" and that "there are bombs all over the place in this garage and downtown," Brown said.

Extensive sweeps of downtown for explosives were carried out and the FAA ordered a temporary flight restriction over the city.

It was the deadliest day for law enforcement since 9/11.

I suppose I could be cited for instigating something with an inflammatory blog posting (good thing nobody reads this blog) but the law probably has more important people to hunt down.  The truth, as everyone who's been paying attention knows, is that LEO is bringing this sort of thing upon themselves by refusing to police the criminals within their own ranks.

As my social media fills up with various hashtags starting with the words, "Pray for", we have to once again point out to the legally blind that perhaps God isn't going to be of much help in this (or any other) regard.  This is a people problem, and only people can work it out.

Here's another prediction: I expect more violence from both sides, even though only one will be publicly denounced and appealed to for calm.

As the chant goes: "No justice, no peace".

Update: The NY Post is just telling the truth.

Sorry if it makes you feel uncomfortable.  There's a lot more discomfort coming down the pike.

Update II:

So you have, every 28 hours, a person of color, usually a poor person of color, being killed with lethal force — and, of course, in most of these cases they are unarmed. So people march in the streets and people protest; and yet the killings don’t stop. Even when they are captured on video. I mean we have videos of people being murdered by the police and the police walk away. This is symptomatic of a state that is ossified and can no longer respond rationally to what is happening to the citizenry, because it exclusively serves the interest of corporate power.

-- Chris Hedges, a month ago

You better go read it.  He's much better at predictions than me.