Keffer, Harless join Straus loyalists going out

The Speaker is going to have a difficult time getting re-elected, and if he does, then another dirty job maintaining discipline in the next legislative session (January 2017).

State Rep. Jim Keffer, an Eastland Republican who was one of the earliest supporters of House Speaker Joe Straus, has decided not to seek re-election next year...

First elected in 1996, Keffer is finishing his 10th term in the Texas House. He chairs the Natural Resources Committee and previously led the committees on Energy Resources, Ways and Means, Property Tax Relief and Economic Development.

His departure leaves only three members of the original Polo Road Gang — the 11 Republicans who met privately at state Rep. Byron Cook’s house on Polo Road in Austin before the 2009 legislative session to decide who they would unite behind in the race for speaker of the House. The 2008 elections left the House split almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats, destabilizing then-Speaker Tom Craddick’s coalition and setting the stage for a change in leadership. The 11 Republicans chose Straus, picked up some other Republicans and a majority of Democrats, and elected him that January.

Now, only Straus, Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth, and Cook remain in office.

Greg and Charles and also I have covered some of the bailouts already.  I never thought I would ever say that losing Patty Harless was big.  But it is.  (This is how far right we have moved in Texas over a short period of time.  And 2016 isn't going to slow it down very much.)

Harless said she has become frustrated with infighting among Republicans in the Legislature and hopes to stay involved in GOP politics and campaigns after her term ends at the end of 2016. "I'm just really disappointed in the way the Republicans act in the Texas House," she said. "People need to know that consensus and moderation and working across the aisle is not a bad thing.

"Some Republicans cater to the 4 or 5 percent who vote in the Republican primaries," she said. "That's not who we represent; we represent everybody in our districts."

Harless is one of House Speaker Joe Straus' stalwarts and serves on three powerful House committees: Calendars, State Affairs and Transportation. She said she thought about leaving after her fourth term: "I stayed last time for Straus. I'm leaving this time for me."

Pond scum about to float away aside, the House is going to harden a little, much like the Senate did this year.  That's a bad thing if you're not wealthy, not a white male who owns guns, and especially bad news if you're a woman who wants a choice about whether to give birth or not.   The tie that binds all of these disparate winners and losers here is voting.  Mad-dog Republicans do so and everybody else does not.  Not for lack of trying in some cases.  But far too many who could close the gap, or even the score a bit, simply cannot tear themselves away from 'Real Housewives'.

With Houston municipal elections coming up quickly, we'll see another record low before the high tide comes in 2016, when some of these Lege retirees get replaced.  And we can only hope their replacements aren't too kooky (an early bet I would not take).

Update (barely related): Harold Cook pre-writes the statements of legislators who will be receiving Texas Monthly's "Best" and "Worst" awards, due today.  A post on that announcement will follow here in short order.

Will Houston's mayoral race mimic San Antonio's?

In some ways I expect that it will.

Ivy Taylor, the socially conservative Democrat who received the backing of the Republicans in the runoff, nosed out Leticia Van de Putte, the more liberal of the two but still a pro-business centrist.  As noted last week, both black and white church-going types -- they call themselves Christians, as we know, though they rarely act like such in word and in deed -- decided to make the election about who hews closest to the bible.  Not much about potholes, or pensions, or budgets, or any of the myriad policy questions of the kind that Charles has frequently posed.  There's a country-club set of GOP in San Antonio (River Oaks-ish types here), and there's a far-flung suburban type who will only consider voting for Republicans.  Of the fourteen candidates in the race for Alamo City mayor, there were two Republicans of some prominence running (Tommy Adkisson and Gerald Ponce), neither of whom gained any traction in the general.  The two highest-profile Latino Dems, Van de Putte and her former colleague in the Texas Legislature, Mike Villarreal, split a majority (56.5%) of the turnout in the first round, with Taylor barely edging Villarreal to move into the runoff.  So while VdP led in the general election, and turnout for the runoff was higher (about 16% versus 12%) she was still narrowly defeated, by all indications by Republican and conservative voters.  The lack of an endorsement from the vanquished Villarreal -- his campaign treasurer did endorse Taylor -- could have played a part in VdP's loss.

This mirrors the result from the 2005 race, where Julian Castro lost to Phil Hardberger by precisely the same 51.5% margin that Taylor defeated Van de Putte.

Update:  Democrats were downbeat...

“At the end of the day, we needed 3,000 Democrats to get off their asses and go vote, and they didn’t," said Colin Strother, a Democratic consultant who had worked for the fourth-place finisher in the first round of the race, former Bexar County Commissioner Tommy Adkisson. "And that’s the story of our life in Texas politics, is that Democrats could elect anyone they wanted to any position — statewide, local, you name it — if they would get off the couch and go vote, and they don’t do it.”

... and Republicans were exultant.

"There's no doubt that Ivy has turned the era in San Antonio politics that we haven't seen in my lifetime," said Robert Stovall, chairman of the Bexar County Republican Party. "This is what Republicans are typically so happy to get, which is good leadership and good government. ..."

Weston Martinez, a conservative leader in San Antonio, said Taylor's win was "delivered by the social conservatives, evangelicals, Protestants and Catholics," groups encouraged to see she "doesn't leave her faith at the door when she goes into the mayor's office."

The Democrats voting in Houston -- white, black, brown -- might split over their respective ethnic coalition candidate (Chris Bell, Sylvester Turner, Adrian Garcia), sending one of those three (whomever is best at turning out his vote in November) into the final round.  That leaves Bill King and Stephen Costello, and to a lesser degree Ben Hall, to fight over whatever percentage of Republican/conservative votes there may be in the first round.

I don't see money being a factor in the Houston race, despite whatever spin gets generated from the reporting of campaign finance fundraising and spending.  The three conservatives can spend any amount they choose; the Democrats, particularly Garcia, will be limited mostly due to the size of their individual wallets.

I still rank Turner at the head of the current field of seven, but the Republican most likely to join him in the runoff at the time of this posting appears to be Bill King, by virtue of his appeal to the angry white conservative caucus.  In a runoff between Turner and King, Turner can prevail, no matter how bitter King tries to make things over bathrooms or street/flooding conditions or any other piss-value issue.  If two Democrats clear the bar and advance to the runoff, all bets are off.  As with San Antonio, one is going to have to run to the right to win, and I can't fathom which that might be.