The red tide rolls in

And as Bill O'Reilly observed, goes out again.  We can't explain that (but that won't stop us from trying).  From the top of my ballot....

-- Cornyn 62, Alameel 34, Libertarian Paddock almost 3, Green "Spicybrown" Sanchez, 1.17%.  The historical Texas election trends hold except for Alameel, who was a few points points weaker than the upper part of the Democratic statewide slate.  Does anyone want to see this man carry the banner again in 2016 2018 against Ted Cruz, as he has forewarned us?  For all the purported danger Cornyn was supposed to be in from a primary challenger like David Barton or Steve Stockman, the freaks all came back home to him.  He stands on the cusp of leading the Senate's new majority caucus... if Cruz lets him.

-- Culberson 63, Cargas 34.5, Lib 2%.  I'm just disappointed that Cargas hit the over in my personal handicapping (I had him at 33, which is where he was most of the night) of his second defeat at the hands of Cumbersome.  I'm not going to be voting for any oil and gas attorneys running for anything any more, ever.

-- Abbott 59, Davis 39, Glass 1.40, Parmer .39%.  Everybody underperformed expectations... except Abbott and Parmer.  The worst and latest poll had Davis losing by 16.  There will be recriminations aplenty, but I for one won't be piling on BGTX.  I do not know what the value of their efforts were in terms of raw votes or percentages, but anybody who throws rocks at their Aegean-stables cleaning efforts needs to sit down and shut up.  Frankly the only thing that has motivated a groundswell of Democratic support in Texas in my lifetime  is when there is a tightly-contested presidential primary between an establishment, conservative candidate and a (perceived, at least) left-leaning, agent-of-change challenger.  Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders: pick up the white paging telephone please.

-- Patrick 58, Van de Putte 39, Butler 2.55, Courtney .59%.  LVDP clocked in with about 22,000 fewer votes than Davis in statewide returns that are 98.77% complete at this posting.  That should put to rest any arguments that she would have fared better at the top of the ticket.  This article suggests that either the Latino Decisions poll released on Election Day was off... or that Patrick received some massive amount of the "non-Latino" vote.  I think it's both of those.

As his first agenda item upon the inauguration of his term as Your Lieutenant Governor, Patrick will issue a fatwa declaring that all Texas women will wear burqas for the next two years.  And that's going to be as liberal as it gets, ladies.  I cannot wait to see if he carried the female vote in some equivalent number to Abbott (52-47 by the exit polls).  That's a statement that will be repeated often, you can be certain.  Update: CNN's exit polling says it was a nine-point margin.

-- Paxton 59, Houston 38, Balagia 2.53, Osborne .63%.  Paxton's pending legal issues dissuaded no Republicans from voting for him.  The GOP vote is as monolithic as can be imagined.

-- Hegar 58, Collier 37.67, Sanders 2.67, Shafto .97%.  The first statewide contest that showed some slight erosion away from the two major party candidates.  Libertarian Ben Sanders had the second-highest showing for the Libs in both vote total and percentage; he got twice as many votes as Kathie Glass, the now-two-time Libertarian gubernatorial loser.  Deb Shafto increased her numbers about 15K and half of a percent from the baseline of candidates preceding her on the ballot, largely I think on the basis of her being the Green gubernatorial candidate in 2010.

-- Bush 60.7, Cook 35.3, Knight 2.71, Alessi 1.28%.  George Pee got more votes than Greg Abbott, folks.  And the Green candidate, Valerie Alessi, slightly over-performed ticketmates above her, but not those below, as we will see again in a moment.

-- Miller 58.6, Hogan 36.8, Palmquist 2.87, Kendrick 1.68%.  It's disappointing that my man Kenneth did not see the surge of support I envisioned.  This is the cause and effect of straight ticket voting demonstrated in all its appalling ignorance.  Jim Hogan should not have received a single vote, period.  It's difficult to encourage Democrats to vote when they make choices this poor when they do.

-- Sitton 58, Brown 36.5, Miller, 3.15, Salinas 2%.  The Green, Martina Salinas, benefited from her Latino surname as much as a vigorous campaign, the highest-profile one of all Greens.  She got nearly 93,000 votes, the largest amount of any G in a contested (with a Democrat) race.  Maybe there are a few Texans who like the idea of a committed environmentalist sitting on the board of commissioners that regulate the oil and gas industry in Texas.  Steve Brown, the only African American on the statewide ballot for Democrats, fell short of Jim Hogan's tally despite running an all-out campaign.  And Mark Miller scored almost the highest of any statewide Libertarian in a contested race.

These lower-ballot statewide tilts seem to offer the greatest opportunity for the minor parties to make an impact.  We'll watch and see if they take this lesson to heart for the future.

Back today with a post about statewide judicial races and turnout.

Yeah, the polls were skewed.

Just in the other direction.  Update: Nate Silver, via TPM.

"Based on results as reported through early Wednesday morning — I’ll detail our method for calculating this in a moment — the average Senate poll conducted in the final three weeks of this year’s campaign overestimated the Democrat’s performance by 4 percentage points," Silver wrote at Five Thirty Eight. "The average gubernatorial poll was just as bad, also overestimating the Democrat’s performance by 4 points."

In almost every key Senate race -- Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Alaska -- the pre-election polls favored Democrats. The trend led to a shocked cadre of political observers as Virginia Sen. Mark Warner (D) barely eked out a win in a race that most had written off as an easy hold for Democrats because of the polling.

"Interestingly, this year’s polls were not especially inaccurate. Between gubernatorial and Senate races, the average poll missed the final result by an average of about 5 percentage points — well in line with the recent average," Silver concluded. "The problem is that almost all of the misses were in the same direction.

Texas Democrats couldn't blame it on the rain, either.  It was a much better set of returns than Republicans could have hoped for in their wettest of dreams.  They will believe that it was, you know, ordained.  A gift from God.

It's worse than 2014, particularly here in Harris County, where all the Ds got swept out to sea.  And it's no consolation that it was just as bad in North Carolina, or Georgia, or Wisconsin, or Florida, or...

The best news I can find is that Denton passed their fracking ban.  So there's that.  And there's this, under a teaser subhead that reads: "Patrick supporters get angry with reporters".

"You are being disrespectful!", she's screeching, when the cameras cut to their talking heads just as Ed Young of Second Baptist Church began his prayer for Dan Patrick (currently photos numbered 36 and 37 in the Chron's slideshow).

Update (11/6): Isiah Carey has more and more pictures. And Juanita Jean has a screenshot from Carey's Facebook page with a photo of longtime ABC-13 reporter Deborah Wrigley intervening in the confrontation above.

Comparisons to tsunami survivors, the latest Borg assimilees, and drowning victims aside, the expected gloating has turned into taunting in a few of the usual places.  Doncha hate a poor winner?

Go ahead and tear down the goalposts, start a white riot, burn a few autos and ransack some light retail outlets, Republicans.  The cops don't haul out the tanks and the tear gas when it's white folks.  Nobody's going to shoot you no matter how badly you misbehave.  Here are a few questions for when you finish your bullying and your tantrums; we'll wait.

-- What time do the lynchings begin?  Not the one of Mitch McConnell by Ted Cruz.  I'm asking about the crucifixions of the women who have abortions, of the gays, and the other sinners and non-believers.

Or will they be stonings instead?  Wood timbers cost money, I know.

-- We'll forget about marijuana decriminalization in Texas.  Can we still listen to rock and roll music, or will that lead to dancing and fornication?

-- Should women go ahead and begin registering their reproductive parts for confiscation by the government?  You know, like you constantly complain about your guns and Obama?  "Greg Abbott's gonna git yer koochies" just doesn't have the same ring to it.  Fear simply does not motivate Democrats in the same way that it does Republicans.  For their sake, I hope they can someday find something that will.

-- When do you start replacing "Obama" with "Hillary" and "Clinton"?  Misogyny worked pretty well for you in this election; is it as easy to shift gears into that from overt racial hostility?  Serious question, but I think I already know the answer.

Oh well, we'll try to have some fun and snark as we continue the slow slide to theocratic fascism in Texas.  Coming soon to your state too, non-Texans, so don't consider yourselves safe in Delaware or Connecticut or even Massachusetts, and correspondingly smug as a result.  Your problems are Blue Dogs and neoliberals, which suggests a thorough housecleaning is in order.

Some numbers and appropriate comment about them later.

The blues

Which is better than having a case of the red ass.  I don't know, it feels kind of crimson and wavy to me this morning.  At this time four years ago there were still very few people (publicly) thinking a tsunami was rolling in off the coast.

I'm feeling a little deja vu, personally.  On the bright side, the rain in Texas today seems to be falling mainly in the plain.

That's a good thing.  Those parts of the state are overly conservative, and besides, they need the rain anyway.

Mostly feeling ominous because of stories like this one.

HOUSTON – A day before Texans go to the polls, an unusual group gathered for lunch at a Mexican restaurant not far from downtown: an unemployed African-American grandmother; a University of Houston student originally from Pennsylvania; a pregnant mother who had recently moved back to the area with her family; and a low-income white woman who struggled to make eye contact and kept her money in a pack strapped around her waist.

They had not met each other before, but they had one thing in common: Thanks to Texas’s strict voter ID law, they all faced massive hurdles in casting a vote. Over fish tacos and guacamole, they shared their stories—hesitantly at first, then with growing eagerness as they realized they weren’t alone in being victimized by their state.

The photo ID law is working as intended.  Nobody can say they don't understand why people cannot get an ID any more after this election.  If they do, they're just being willfully ignorant.

Anyway, I got a pile of pre-recriminations that can be rolled out tomorrow, but we'll save it for then.  Hey, there's an outside chance I won't even need them.

Update: Noah seems to be a little down in the mouth as well.

The Day Before Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance fervently hopes that all of the election winners have our state's best interests at heart as we bring you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff discusses what the Republicans didn't tell us about voter ID, and the bigger question about it that has yet to be decided.

Libby Shaw, writing for Texas Kaos and Daily Kos, notes that when fascism comes to America it will come wrapped in a law that should have never been passed in the first place. I will not sit down and shut up about voter suppression in Texas.

WCNews at Eye on Williamson sees that the photo ID law in Texas is causing problems. Considering it's always been a solution in search of a problem this is no surprise: TX GOP Voter ID Law Denied 93-Year-Old Veteran A Ballot.

Control of the US Senate will be decided in a runoff in Louisiana in December, or maybe in January in Georgia. So sayeth PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

Egberto Willies has the video of Mary Landrieu telling the truth that's hard to swallow for Southerners.

Dos Centavos was at the rally for Leticia Van de Putte hosted by Tejano star Little Joe.

Neil at All People Have Value thanks his car for reaching 100,000 miles and everyone and everything else for just being here.  APHV is one of many things that exist at NeilAquino.com.

Texas Leftist picked up on the Republican candidate for Dallas County Judge's comments that he hopes Democrats will spend their food stamp money instead of voting on Tuesday.

=========================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Greg Wythe's last number crunch before Election Day reveals a Harris County Democratic electorate between 46 and 47%.  It's all on Tuesday's voters now.

Carol Morgan says that anemic Texas voter turnout is the perfect Halloween horror story.

The alternative newspaper Free Press Houston made its first endorsement ever, and it's for Kim Ogg for District Attorney.  Because weed.

Socratic Gadfly has a few pre-election observations.

Lone Star Ma was blockwalking to the end.

Lone Star Q has the report that the Houston hate rally's Twitter hashtag, #IStandSunday, backfired on them.  It became a rallying cry for LGBT rights.

The Great God Pan Is Dead explains the activism of Working Artists and the Greater Economy (W.A.G.E.), who advocate for paying artists fairly for their labor.

The Texas Election Law Blog reports on the "sub-rosa approval" of veterans health cards as suitable for voter ID.

Colin Strother asks if you know who your voters are.

Grits for Breakfast notes the appellate court split on the mandated DWI blood drawing, and what that means as the cases move on to the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals.

Kevin Barton calls for lower municipal speed limits in the name of pedestrian safety.

Jackie Young updates us on the San Jacinto waste pits trial.

Tar Sands Blockade covered distressing reports of the pipeline spill into Caddo Lake.

Scott Braddock discusses the new (and likely to be short-lived) "dark money" rules.

Forrest Wilder recaps how Greg Abbott crushed Houston Votes in 2010.

The Lunch Tray reminds us that in terms of what they eat, every day is like Halloween for American kids.

Fall Back Funnies

Just don't fall too far back.