Wednesday, October 08, 2014

US Senate control is too close to call

Nate Silver says Republicans. Jerry Wang -- turning into Silver's archrival, perhaps even nemesis -- says Democrats. At least one person is saying it will be 50-50 (with indys like Angus King and Greg Orman of Kansas caucusing with the Dems).

I can't recall this much polling volatility in so many races this late in the season.  Kay Hagan (NC) appears to be pulling ahead; Mark Begich (Alaska) and Bruce Braley (Iowa) are falling behind.  Alison Lundergan Grimes just got her first good poll in awhile in her effort to topple Mitch "Mr. Turtle" McConnell.  Is it an outlier?

I have no instinct I can place faith in about how things are going to go with 3.5 weeks remaining.  That's unusual.  Some folks are a little more certain, which is to say pessimistic.

I feel pretty confident that Republicans are going to keep doing everything they can to allow as few people as possible to cast a ballot.  And while Democratic governors and gubernatorial candidates around the nation are poised for a big night on the first Tuesday of November... the only outcome I'm sure about, sadly, is Texas.

The Senate, meanwhile, is a coin flip.

Update (10/9): Developments in the 24 hours since this was posted suggest South Dakota is going to be hotly contested.

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Caption this photo


Winner so far: "This is the only way I would ever shake Rick Perry's hand."

The P Slate: local judicials

Harris County has a justice system that rivals those of some small countries.  There are 26 state district civil courts, 22 criminal ones and 11 family law courts, and that doesn't count the 18 justices on two state courts of appeal, the 16 justices of the peace, and the judges who serve on the probate and juvenile courts and the county courts at law.  (Recommendations for the highest courts in the state -- the Texas Supreme Court and the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals -- will appear in a later post.)

If you live in the nation's third most populous county, about half of those various judgeships show up on your ballot every two years.  And in a deep purple, virtually 50-50 county like Harris, that means straight Democratic ticket voters in presidential years tend to wash out the Republicans on the bench, and in off-presidential years they get swept back in by the same straight-ticket voting phenomenon... coupled with the fact that so many Democratic voters sit out the midterms.  This doesn't even take into consideration all the voters who stop voting after the top handful of races, especially when you consider that Harris County has one of the longest ballots in the nation.

So many of the county's judicial races are decided by their party's straight ticket voters.  I personally agree with many others that straight-ticket voting is a pox on the democratic process, and not just because it gives so many participants a somewhat arrogant sense of satisfaction that they have completed their biannual citizenship requirement in thirty seconds or less.  But it's the reality of how we elect judges in Harris County, and in Texas and other states as well.  If you want more evidence besides the numbers, just note that some Republicans think 2014 is going to be a blue year, and some Democrats don't.  It's all about who turns out their voters.

(I don't do endorsements per se; I just take my secret ballot and roll it out online for your perusal.  It's your prerogative, of course, to agree or disagree with my picks.  I offer them to voters who wish to carefully discern which judges might be most inclined to interpret the law with fairness and in a progressive perspective, as opposed to a conservative one.  In the evolution of assessing judges and judicial candidates for suitability, I've gotten to the point where I can no longer vote for Republicans.  I simply don't think that anyone who aligns themselves with the appalling extremism of the Republican Party of Texas has the appropriate temperament and corresponding jurisprudence to merit my consideration.  YMMV.)

Before I run down a few of my favorites on the ballot this year, I wish to acknowledge Judge Al Bennett of the 61st Civil District Court, who has recently been nominated to the federal bench by President Obama.  Judge Bennett is one the most exemplary men I've had the fortune of meeting in politics, and that has only a little to do with his outstanding qualifications to serve.  I first came to know him several years ago, when he ran for House District 146, a contest that also featured current-Rep. Borris Miles and former Rep. Al Edwards.  Bennett made a point of seeking my support, and as I had already committed to Miles, I asked him to run in another race so that I could do so.  Well, he did and I did, and the rest is history.

Now on to my recommendations.

-- Judge Kyle Carter, of the 125th Civil District Court, seeks election to Chief Justice of the Fourteenth Court of Appeals.  A no-brainer, as there are NO Democrats serving on the Fourteenth, and five of the nine Republican justices currently serving were first appointed by Rick Perry.  Carter is challenging the incumbent Chief Justice, Kem Frost, who was appointed to the court by then-Gov. George W. Bush.

 This court needs some balance.  Similarly...

-- Justice Jim Sharp of the First Court of Appeals seeks re-election.  He's the only Democrat on that court.  He's also as progressive as they come for a judge.  Yes, he's gotten himself in a little hot water over his conduct in recent years.  And conservatives have gone after him hammer and tong.  Frankly, his eccentricities have endeared him to me.  Sharp gets my vote and my support.

Texpatriate endorses both Carter and Sharp today as well.

-- Barbara Gardner, running for the 234th District Court. In her words, paraphrasing...

I am running for the 234th because I am considerably more qualified than the person Rick Perry appointed to serve one year ago. In observing Governor Perry's judicial appointments, I have noticed that he most often appoints a person who -- in the words of Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willet -- is aligned with the governor's judicial philosophy, which is pro-defendant, anti-consumer, and "unabashedly conservative". This is contrary to our state constitution, which provides for election of judges by citizens, and it is contrary to our concepts of fairness and justice."

That's it in a nutshell.  Kuff has a Q&A with Gardner today.

-- Steven Kirkland, running for Judge, 113th Civil District Court.  Kirkland was ousted from the 215th in 2012 in one of the uglier homophobic demonstrations in Harris County that managed to incorporate a little racism as well.  He's been a fine municipal and state court judge and a friend of the family.

-- Similarly, these three judicials: Tracy Good for the 313th Juvenile Court, Harold Landreneau for County Criminal Court at Law #2, and Tanner Garth for the 281st Civil are acquaintances of mine and come strongly recommended.

-- In addition, Ursula Hall, running for the 189th Civil; Farrah Martinez, running for the 190th Civil, and Scott Dollinger, running for the County Civil Court at Law, #2 get my vote.

And all of the judicial candidates listed here are worthy of yours.

Monday, October 06, 2014

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds you that today is the last day to register to vote in Texas.  Here's the roundup of lefty blog posts from last week.

Off the Kuff began his series of interviews with statewide candidates by talking to Sam Houston, the Democratic candidate for Attorney General.

Libby Shaw, writing for Texas Kaos and at Daily Kos, is very pleased that  Wendy Davis hammered Greg Abbott on Austin's pervasive culture of corruption.

From WCNews at Eye on Williamson: The question remains, is something like the Texas Enterprise Fund scandal enough to get voters to change their mind about Greg Abbott and the GOP? If not then what would it take?

William Rivers Pitt wrote "an open letter to his Democratic spammer". PDiddie at Brains and Eggs commiserates.

BlueDaze outs the not-from-Denton Master Debator representing the frackers.

Texpatriate updated the lieutenant governor's race, Texas Leftist reviewed the debate, and Egberto Willies passed along the HouChron's endorsement of Leticia Van de Putte.

Bay Area Houston wonders why Greg Abbott sat in traffic for ten years before deciding he wanted to help.

Neil at All People Have Value wrote an art review of the fish cleaning station at the Texas City Dike. APHV is one of many pages worthy of review at NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts from other Texas blogs.

jobsanger ruefully observes that Wendy Davis is trailing in the governor's race because Texans don't feel that women should be equal to men.  But Socratic Gadfly believes there is no "self-hating woman" meme at work here.

TFN gives us the news that RNC head Reince Priebus believes it's 'compassionate' for Texas Republicans to close women's clinics in Texas.

Trail Blazers has the story of the lesbian couple that that asked the Fifth Circuit to schedule arguments next month in their gay marriage suit ... because they're expecting in March.

Scott Braddock shows the evidence of who's behind some recent wingnut-on-wingnut violence. Be sure your popcorn popper is in good order, this one looks like a gift that will keep on giving.

Lone Star Q is happy to report that Dallas City Council has voted week to ban discrimination against transgender city employees.

The Lunch Tray took a stand for citizen journalism.

Hair Balls explains what pot has to do with the Harris County DA race this year.

Char Miller eulogizes his colleague John Donahue, a "gracious force for good" in San Antonio.

Nancy Sims posits her grand unification theory of Houston Mayoral elections.

The Texas Election Law Blog assesses the GAO report on how long it took to vote in 2012.

Texas Watch wants you to understand the impact of the Texas law that shields the medical industry from accountability.

BOR points to HD94 as a below-the-radar race to watch.

Nonsequiteuse connects the dots from racing for the cure to racing for Governor.

Sunday, October 05, 2014

The weekend's political events

About fifty people gathered in the lovely home of Lee and Hardy Loe on Saturday afternoon to hear the Texas Green statewide candidates talk about their campaigns and policies.


From left to right: Deb Shafto, candidate for Comptroller of Public Accounts, Emily "Spicybrown" Sanchez, candidate for US Senate, Martina Salinas, candidate for Railroad Commissioner, Kenneth Kendrick, candidate for Agriculture Commissioner, and Jim Chisholm, candidate for Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 8.

There was even a representative of the Kim Ogg for Harris County District attorney campaign, who got a minute at the end to speak and pass out some literature.  That's how you build coalitions, folks.  Not like this.

-- Speaking of Ogg, she's debating the Republican incumbent in a few minutes on local TVUpdate: Here's some play-by-play; here's the video, courtesy Click2Houston.

video platformvideo managementvideo solutionsvideo player

Sunday Deja Vu Funnies

Saturday, October 04, 2014

Tom DeLay, Lawrence Meyers, and the Christian caliphate in Texas

Lots of things to do today -- blockwalking for the Wendy Davis campaign in my precinct again this morning, a Green statewide candidate fundraiser this evening.  Some things that I meant to blog, or blog more about...

-- Tom DeLay plans on returning to DC as a politician, but first he needs to sue the Travis County DA for corruption.  Such rich irony.

I wrote so much about El Cucaracho Grande in the early years of Brains.  That protest we had in front of the Hilton at the 2005 NRA convention was off the hook.  I even went down to Pasadena and stood in the sleet at 7 a.m. at an elementary school and pushed cards for Richard Morrison, who ran against him in 2004.  This post, one of the top ten most-clicked here -- it was search-engine optimized, as you can perhaps tell -- appears to have been the last thing I blogged on the topic (that wasn't about Dancing with the Stars).

I knew after the first appeals court white-washed his criminal record that he would skate.  The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals -- about which I have written more recently -- is nothing if not consistent.  And that court and its judges are, it should be emphasized, the actual problem in Texas with respect to the infestation of corrupt Republicans that pervades the state's body politic.  Tom DeLay -- and Greg Abbott and Rick Perry and Louie Gohmert and Sid Miller and all of the rest of the worst conservatives money can buy -- are just symptoms of that problem.

My Cuban in-laws used to say of Fidel Castro: "bicho malo nunca muerte".  A bad bug never dies.  Truer words were never spoken of either man.

-- The only Democrat on the Texas CCA, Lawrence Meyers (he was a Republican until recently), is suing Texas over the voter/photo ID law.  This news gives Texans who are not Republicans hope for a better, more just Texas.

-- But progress comes slowly, and often there is regression before progress can be resumed.

Women's clinics in Texas are closing, the burdens being created for Texas women to exercise their rights to choice are harsh and undue, and the worst is yet to come.  The next step will be the Texas Legislature passing a bill in 2015 that outlaws abortions in Texas, even in cases of rape or incest.  Governor Greg Abbott will sign it.  After that, the focus will shift to criminalizing the perpetrators of abortion.  Specifically, capital punishment.  This should not surprise anybody when it occurs.

Update: Think Progress gets it: The ultimate goal of the Texas abortion law (HB2, as it's called) is having the Supremes overturn Roe v. Wade.  As Charles reminds, elections have consequences.

And then they will go after the gays.  I expect the Legislature to try to void equal rights city ordinances like Houston's and San Antonio's with bills written next year.  We should see nothing less than legislation crafted by the people who wish for a Christian caliphate coming out of the Lege next session... that is, if they can elbow the corporate lawyers and lobbyists out of their way in the stampede up the Great Walk.  The rightest of the right will have a super-majority in Austin next year.  They can do whatever they like.  The only real fight will be between the Fundys and the Corporatists.

All of these developments suggest a bright economic future for barristers on both sides of the aisle.