YouGov: Abbott 55, Davis 37

Pretty grim.  (Click to enlarge or go to the source, linked.)

After Abbott released an internal that showed him up 18, the Davis campaign released one showing him up eight (the same as that Rasmussen poll a month ago).  So what was needed for some Davis momentum was an external poll that would reveal the race as some figure at least between those two, or closer to hers.  No such luck; he gets his number.

Perhaps most grim to this tea leaf-reader are the percentages of independents (62%) and Latinos (42%) supporting Abbott.  That's almost insurmountable right there.  Charles seems to be either looking at the bright side or shrugging it off, but I can't do either one.  Polling had concluded by the time the news about Wendy Davis broke just one week ago, so how that might influence the results is something to look for in the next poll, whenever that might be.  And now the best that can be hoped for is another poll sometime over the next month that shows the race tightening.

The historical Texas numbers in the last two races for governor (2010, 2006) produced splits on the order of 55% for the Republican, 41% for the Democrat, 3% for the Libertarian, and 1% for the Green.  So this might be our first glimpse of another Red Wave, similar to what washed out the Democrats down the ballot four years ago.

Expect the attorney general to be even more detached from campaigning, debating, speaking to the media, etc. as we close in on the deadlines for voter registration (October 6), the start of early voting (October 20, five weeks away), and Election Day (November 4).  He's running for re-election -- yes, re-election -- in the Rick Perry style.

We're likely to see more inspiring (sic) teevee ads showing Greg Abbott pushing himself to the top of a parking garage, kissing Latino babies, firing a gun and even climbing a mountain where there's a stream for him to catch a fish.  Because that's how he'll roll to the end of this campaign season.... unless things close up a little, and then we'll see the attacks ads -- already cut and in the can -- pushed out onto the airwaves.

This election cycle, today, more closely resembles 2010 than 2008.

Update: Eye on Williamson reminds us that it's okay if it seems impossible.

Houston: Home of the brave

Let's just sample liberally from CultureMap.

OK, Halloween is still a month away, so it probably wasn't some horrific-idea costume that the gent was wearing when he walked into a Jason's Deli in Houston with the ISIS logo emblazoned on his shoulder. Social media is going wild with the image of a man in robes sporting the ISIS emblem that says only one thing — be afraid, be very afraid.

"You don't believe they're here? Look who was just found at Jason's Deli in (sic) at West 34th and 290 in Houston," Mike Kasper emailed friends after taking the photo. "That's the black standard ISIS emblem on his shoulder. Share the hell outta this. — Mike."

I must be friends with all the wrong conservatives.  This was the first I had seen or heard.

The folks at Jason's have received an earful. A Jason's customer service representative at the chain's toll-free number tells CultureMap, "We have gotten plenty of feedback about that... There was someone there but he is not a Jason's employee."

"He's not one of ours!" was Jason's first response.  Well, he does look like a customer to me.  If the photo hasn't been Shopped.  (More pics at the link.)

Kasper went so far as to inform the FBI. After their interrogation of the intrepid smartphone photographer, the FBI went dark on him. Won't return his emails. Won't return his phone calls.

Or so Kasper tells KTRH radio personality Matt Patrick. That interview is posted on the Christian rescue website shoebat.com, which is all over the sighting reporting not only Kasper's story but also claiming that another man wearing an ISIS logo was arrested in H-Town.

Matt Patrick, for the uninitiated, is one of the two Rush Limbaugh-wannabees on your local AM dial.  He's been looking up at Michael Berry for years.  Maybe he just got his big break.

This episode touches all the hot red buttons: Muslim terrorists like Obama pouring over the "boarder" with the rest of the Ill Eagles, etc.  Why is it that the people with the most guns and all the ammo are the biggest scaredy cats?

Do you think this will help boost turnout in the upcoming elections?  Honestly, I don't.  These people stay so perpetually frothed up about nothing that there's just no more juice to be squeezed out of that lemon.

Keep calm and carry on, even in the face of terrified Republicans.

Texas' voter ID motives questioned in two areas

In the state legislature...

More than a week ago, Texas Senate Democrats put Texas Secretary of State Nandita Berry on notice: They wanted her office to get more mobile units on Texas streets to give voters without an acceptable photo ID a chance to get one before November's election.

One week later, there's been no movement to do so, says state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin.

The problem, he says, is that there are not one but two state agencies in charge of putting more mobile units out in the community. The Secretary of State's office (SOS), which includes voter registration, has to coordinate where the mobile units will go. The Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) actually owns the mobile units which can issue the new Texas election identification certificates, or EICs.

After trying to get the two entities to agree on how to do it — and to do it quickly — Watson said late Tuesday that it "appears to me it is a breakdown on both ends."

Ah, the Department of Public Safety. Their scheme is revealed in the courthouse, where the state's photo ID legislation is on trial.

Emails from a Department of Public Safety official raised questions Tuesday in federal court about the sincerity of the agency's voter qualification efforts.

"Zero's a good number," Tony Rodriguez, a senior DPS manager wrote in a email presented as evidence in the ongoing voter ID trial. Rodriguez was responding to a subordinate's report that no election identification certificates had been issued the day before at a DPS location.

The rest is behind a paywall, but there's more context for it at the Brennan Center's liveblog.  Note that this courtroom drama -- which included testimony from Sen. Wendy Davis -- came last Friday morning, and the Corpus Christi Caller-Time's story (first linked; apparently the only news coverage, if you can believe Google) appeared last night.

What an appalling lapse on the part of the Texas media.  To be even-handed, there was some other breaking news late last Friday that must have simply overwhelmed our tired corporate news gatherers.  All the way into Thursday.

The Texas Secretary of State, as we all know by now, is Mrs. Michael Berry.  So when you hear it said over and over again that Texas is a non-voting state, you also need to understand that this is no accident on the part of Texas Republicans.  That is exactly the way they want it.

It's the only way they can stay in power.

Here's my opportunity to repeat myself: do what you have to do in order to make sure you can vote in the next few weeks, and do it now.  And then help your family, friends, and neighbors do so.

Texas Leftist has more.  Update: And Charles climbed over the firewall and got more of the Caller-Times story.   It's worth reading just for DPS official Rodriguez' defense of his 'zero is a good number' comments as sarcasm.

Fumbles and personal fouls

-- The Ray Rice domestic violence affair melted down yesterday.  Rice's two-game suspension by the NFL for cold-cocking his fiance'/now wife Janay turned into an indefinite one -- and the termination of his contract by the Baltimore Ravens -- after elevator video surfaced of the blow he struck her.

Previously the team's players, coaches, and front office had voiced support for what a great guy Rice was.  That all changed in a matter of a few hours.  As the story developed, Fox's morning morons revealed they skipped their corporate sensitivity trainings.  They probably won't lose their jobs.  *Update: NFL commissioner Roger Goodell might lose his, though.  And probably should.

I'm sure there's no connection -- none whatsoever -- between this and the whole "War on Women" being waged by the GOP.  No coverup or anything.  The fact that Bob McNair, the owner of the Houston Texans, and Drayton McLane, the previous owner of the Houston Astros, are large benefactors to Greg Abbott is nothing more than a coincidence.

-- Speaking of misogyny... if you're the kind of person that feels like they might be voting this year, feels kinda like they might want to support the Democratic nominee for governor, Wendy Davis, but finds yourself undecided for any variety of reasons... read the comments on this story and see if that helps you make up your mind.  Maybe you're already planning on voting for her, and were thinking you might try to help her campaign in some way, if you found time.  Read the comments again, and see if they provide some motivation.

Some people seem to have a problem with her book tour.  Not just whiny Greg Abbott.

-- David Alameel is polling twenty-one points behind John Cornyn.  Carry on.

-- On a more upbeat note regarding Democrats and other candidates on the ballot in the Dallas area, see this handy Dallas Voters Guide, courtesy of the DMN.  They have the statewides as well as the locals.

-- The Harris County Green Party is holding a candidate forum on Monday, September 22.  State and local candidates will meet and greet voters and the media, give remarks, and be available for Q&A.  Some statewide candidates will also be available via Skype.  And in October, Texas Agriculture Commission candidate Kenneth Kendrick and Texas Railroad Commission candidate Martina Salinas will return to Houston for a joint fundraiser.