A pre-EV perspective

-- Charles delivers a good one here. Well worth reading (even with the perpetual underlying premise that more money means 'best chance of getting elected').  Thank goodness he and Texas Leftist and Texpatriate have worked this beat, because I haven't had the heart.  I'll add some predictions, though...

-- Mayor Parker wins without a runoff.  As best as I can tell, Ben Hall has already folded his tent.

-- I'll go out on a limb and say that city controller Ron Green loses a squeaker to the Republican, Bill Frazer.

-- Michael Kubosh and one of either Rogene Calvert or Jenifer Rene Pool in the runoff for AL3.  I can't seem to find many incumbents to vote for in city council races, except for my district representative, Larry Green.  I know I won't be voting for Stephen Costello or C.O. Bradford or Jack Christie.  That much is certain.  Update: Of course I am voting for James Horwitz.

-- I am voting for the Dome.

And I expect it to pass.

This is still the most lackluster election cycle in memory.

The last word on the shutdown

What the shutdown cost:

“The bottom line is the government shutdown has hurt the U.S. economy,” Standard & Poor’s said in a statement. “In September, we expected 3 percent annualized growth in the fourth quarter because we thought politicians would have learned from 2011 and taken steps to avoid things like a government shutdown and the possibility of a sovereign default. Since our forecast didn’t hold, we now have to lower our fourth-quarter growth estimate to closer to 2 percent.”

Moody’s Analytics reported a similar number Wednesday, saying by the end of the day the shutdown will  cause a $23 billion hit to U.S. GDP or $1.4375 billion per day.

-- $3.1 billion in lost government services. Although furloughed workers will get their back pay,  taxpayers won’t see the products.  (Source: I.H.S.)

--  According to the U.S. Travel Association:  There has been $152 million per day in all spending related to travel lost because of the shutdown. As many as 450,000 American workers supported by travel may be affected.

--  According to the National Park Service: They welcome more than 700,000 people per day usually in October and visitors spend an estimated $32 million per day impact in communities near national parks and contribute $76 million each day to the national economy.  Those revenues were lost.

--  According to Destination D.C., the official tourism corporation of D.C.: There is a 9 percent decrease in hotel occupancy from the last week in September before the shutdown to the first week of October during the shutdown. This year, hotel occupancy was down 74.4 percent for the week Sept. 29 to Oct. 5 compared to the 2012 numbers. (Source: Smith Travel Research, Inc.) In 2012, an estimated $6.2 billion of visitor spending supported more than 75,300 jobs.

What the shutdown's lost revenue could have paid for:

• The net cost of to the government from the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP): $24 billion
• The Department of Agriculture’s proposed budget: $22.6 billion
• NASA’s approved budget: $16.6 billion
• All air transportation programs, including the Federal Aviation Administration, security, research, and other costs: $21.9 billion
• The Child Tax Credit: $22.1 billion
• The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program (formally known as welfare): $17.7 billion
• The cost of Head Start, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and Women Infants and Children (WIC) program combined: $25.2 billion

The topline figure may not take many other costs into account, such as loans that didn’t go out from the Small Business Administration, permits that got held up, and the loss of billions in tax revenue. Plus the government could still get a downgrade on its credit, which could ding business and consumer confidence and bring about more costs.

The shutdown was just the latest budget crisis that has been costly to the economy. A recent report found that the uncertainty created by fights over funding the government and raising the debt ceiling that have cropped up since 2010 has cost the economy nearly a million jobs. 

Ted Cruz:

"It was an incredible victory." 

Truly epic conservative fail

Your linkage for the above:

"An obvious disaster for the GOP"

"House Republicans are the clear losers"

"Humiliating failure"

"Fiasco"

"Disaster ... Debacle"

"This party is going nuts"

"Republicans have to understand that we have lost this battle"

"We really did go too far. We screwed up"

"Speaker Pelosi Part 2: Opening Jan. 5, 2015"

More surrender roundup here if you need it, want it, like it, have to have it.  A few more developments from late last night worth mentioning....

Senate Conservatives Fund hits McConnell for getting 'Kentucky Kickback' in Senate deal

Ten Takeaways from the Great GOP Cave-in

Ted Cruz admits budget standoff was all about building fundraising lists

No Texas Republican votes to reopen US government or avoid default 

Then there's the actual satire.

Cruz: "The Dream of keeping poor people from seeing a doctor must never die"

His eyes welling up with tears, Sen. Cruz said, “I embarked on this crusade with a simple goal: to keep affordable health care out of the reach of ordinary, hard-working Americans. And while this battle was lost, that dream—that precious, cherished dream—will live on.”

Reflecting on the government shutdown and near-default that almost touched off a global financial apocalypse, Sen. Cruz said, “We’ll give it another try in a few weeks.”

Sen. Cruz’s closest ally, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) also spoke reverently of the shutdown, calling it “the most expensive Civil War re-enactment in history.”

“Unfortunately, once again, the wrong side won,” he said.

Over in the House of Representatives, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) congratulated his colleagues on the deal to resolve the shutdown, telling reporters, “This proves that when we work together, we can come up with a totally unsatisfactory solution to a completely unnecessary crisis.”

With fail this epic, it's hilarious (or maybe just pathetic) to find there are Teabaggers this morning -- sober, I must presume -- who still think they are winners.  And still support the Speaker, even as they voted 'no' in perfect lockstep last night.

I have to say that this madness among conservatives leaves me astounded.  They're already talking about shutting it down again in a few months.

Is it possible that the Democrats could screw up such a gold-plated gift?  I suppose so, but on the morning after this capitulation by the seditionists in the House of Representatives, it certainly smells like their goose is cooked.  Burned to a crisp, even.

I'd rather see them snapped back to reality in a little over year, and not much sooner than that.