Run-offs in the primaries for Texas governor

Both of them, in my always-humble O. First, about the Pukes:

The appearance in last week's statewide televised debate evidently helped Republican activist Debra Medina the most and won her a spot in the upcoming Jan. 29 debate hosted by Belo.

An new Rasmussen Reports survey shows Medina with 12 percent support among 831 likely GOP primary voters surveyed Sunday. Medina had only 4 percent support in a survey by the company in November.

Perry continues to lead with 43 percent support and Hutchison was at 33 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. In the November poll, Perry led 46 percent to 35 percent.

Kay Bailey needs to get to 35% and Funky Cold Medina to 16 -- which is the more likely of the two scenarios -- and voila: Rick Perry will have to beat Kay again in a run-off in April.

For the Dems, let's go to Burnt Orange for the opinion of Dr. Richard Murray's take, who's working locally for ABC-13 ...

Bill White starting out with the most name identification is of course an advantage but Farouk Shami has been advertising statewide for the last month to the tune of what I can tell is about $2.5-3.0 million over $3.5 million dollars. White hasn't spent money on TV ads to date and it's unclear when or if that will happen prior to March 2nd's primary. I'm a little curious how effective Shami's ads in December will be for a March primary but considering he's probably going to be on air all the way through the next month and a half, that could solve the problem of people forgetting your name/brand if they aren't reminded about it. Of course, if he got himself listed on the ballot as Farouk "CHI IRON" Shami he'd win the name id game in a pinch. Alas...

Read it all but note this from Dr. Murray at the end:

Taken together, Bill White is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee for governor this year. There is some question as to whether he can get 50% plus against six opponents, thus avoiding an April runoff with Farouk Shami (I think he will get a majority).

Dr. Murray goes on to speculate about the possibility of Shami stalking for Governor MoFo, even quoting John Whitmire in the plot.  I rarely disagree with the good professor and I only occasionally question the Dean of the Texas Senate, but that is complete balderdash.

Anyway, and as I posted on the BOR thread, I'll take Dr. Murray's bet. In 2006, Felix Alvarado's sister -- who had no prior elective experience -- became the Democratic nominee for lt. governor, finishing ahead of an Anglo who had been a state representative and an appeals court judge. She led in the primary election (which included another Hispanic political novice, Adrian DeLeon) and she won the run-off handily.

That's right; four years ago Ben Z. Grant, the only non-Latino in the race for lite gov, got less than 40% of the three-way vote in a race in which more Democrats voted than in the contests higher on the ballot: US Senator (Radnofsky v. Kelly) and governor (Bell v. Gammage).

I think Aguado and Alvarado can draw at least 30% of the primary vote between them, so I'll say the March 2nd numbers look something like this:

White 40%
Shami 20%
Alvarado 18%
Aguado 12%
Dear, Glenn, and Locke together 10%

I believe it's entirely possible that Felix Alvarado and not Farouk Shami makes it into a run-off with White; more likely, in fact than White getting 50%.

*And like Dr. Murray (I'm guessing), I reserve the right to revise this prediction as we draw closer to Election Day, now about six weeks away.

Whatever happens today in Massachusetts ...

... Democrats have only themselves to blame.

I would give a slice of humble pie topped with a schmear of greasy blame to each of the following:

-- Martha Coakley, for running one of the most lackadaisical campaigns ever seen. For a once-popular elected official, she's made one mistake after the other, the most glaring one calling Curt Schilling "a Yankees fan".

-- Harry Reid, who allowed every Blue Dog (and a few Republicans) to pee their little bit into the smelly hash made of healthcare insurance reform. When you're elected by the people on the basis of "universal health care" and then can't even manage to make a public insurance option palatable to the Lords of the Senate, you're as weak as rainwater.

-- and Barack Obama, to hit Rahm Emanuel in the face with, for driving the White House's hand in the mostly-hands-off process and performing his classic "Let's Shit All Over Our Base" number once again.

I got off this bus a few weeks back.  I am more than happy to let the bill die. And it looks to me like the country needs to go through another few years of Republicans' "governmental reform" before we wise up.  Again.

And on the off chance that Coakley somehow manages to pull it out, I hope everyone is paying attention to who did the last-minute phonebanking and blockwalking and all the other GOTV efforts.

Clue to Rahm: it isn't the goddamn independents.  And  a vise grip to conservatives: it won't be ACORN either, you morons.

Update: Jonathan Alter of Newsweek -- damned liberal media -- obviously doesn't get it either. But Eugene Robinson at the Washington Post does.

Update II, post-Election Day: Howard Fineman adds his list, on which we agree about the top three and then he veers way off the rails. Read a blog besides your own once in awhile, pal.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance wishes you a happy MLK Day as it brings you this week's blog highlights.

Off the Kuff takes a look at some demographic trends in the Houston area.

Something STINKS about TCEQ's recent Fort Worth air study. Considering that the Barnett Shale has a staggering asthma rate of 25% compared to 7.1% statewide, TXsharon thinks it's time for an intervention in Texas. Bluedaze: DRILLING REFORM FOR TEXAS.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme, along with every other progressive, knows why Democrats are having a hard time. Even the Tea Party activists know that our country should not be run by corporate lobbyists.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson discusses the importance of the elections this year: 2010 races loom large for 2011 legislative redistricting.

Mary Peters loves her some private toll roads, which is understandable since her income depends on stupid people at TXDOT selling off our roads. McBlogger, understandably, has a problem with the fact that taxpayers have to get screwed for Mary and her masters to make money.

A few of PDiddie's friends around the state are taking a crack at public office this year. See who they are at Brains and Eggs.

Bay Area Houston notices what they didn't talk about at the Republican debates.

Neil at Texas Liberal updated his Martin Luther King reading & reference list for 2010. This list is the best such resource on the web.

MUD? FWSD? WTF? Developer welfare comes back into the light in Denton County, at the Texas Cloverleaf.

Remembering MLK today

And not with a sale or a day off.

By 1967, the Rev. Martin Luther King had become his country's most prominent opponent of the Vietnam War and a staunch critic of overall U.S. foreign policy, which he deemed militaristic. In his "Beyond Vietnam" speech delivered at New York's Riverside Church on April 4, 1967 -- a year to the day before he was murdered -- King called the United States "the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today."

TIME magazine called the speech "demagogic slander that sounded like a script for Radio Hanoi," and the Washington Post declared that King had "diminished his usefulness to his cause, his country, his people."

Part 2 can be seen here as well as the full text of the speech. Here is a short excerpt:

"I am convinced that if we are to get on the right side of the world revolution, we as a nation must undergo a radical revolution of values. ... A true revolution of values will soon look uneasily on the glaring contrast of poverty and wealth. With righteous indignation, it will look across the seas and see individual capitalists of the West investing huge sums of money in Asia, Africa, and South America, only to take the profits out with no concern for the social betterment of the countries, and say, 'This is not just.' It will look at our alliance with the landed gentry of South America and say, 'This is not just.' The Western arrogance of feeling that it has everything to teach others and nothing to learn from them is not just.

"A true revolution of values will lay hand on the world order and say of war, 'This way of settling differences is not just.' This business of burning human beings with napalm, of filling our nation's homes with orphans and widows, of injecting poisonous drugs of hate into the veins of peoples normally humane, of sending men home from dark and bloody battlefields physically handicapped and psychologically deranged, cannot be reconciled with wisdom, justice, and love. A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual death."

Hat tip to the Texas Climate Emergency Campaign.

Farouk Shami in the news

Full disclosure: Not only is Shami a paid sponsor of this blog but Vince Leibowitz, my good friend and chair of the Texas Progressive Alliance, also serves as Shami's campaign director and senior strategist.

Shami's religious views and economic plans made news this past week. First, Corrie MacLaggan at the Statesman:

When Farouk Shami's gubernatorial campaign officials were asked in November what his religion is, they said he is Quaker.

But on Monday, other campaign officials said he is not.

Rick Casey at the Chron:

Farouk Shami, the Houston hair care magnate running for governor, wants you to know that he is not a Muslim.

He also wants you to know that he is not a Quaker.

One more thing he wants you to know: The Texas media, possibly out of “something darker and racially motivated,” is engaging in a disservice to Texas Democrats by promoting a “media sideshow surrounding Shami's religious beliefs.”

Aman Batheja at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

Because of the wealthy Houston businessman’s origin, as soon as he announced his candidacy a rumor started that he is Muslim.

His campaign initially told reporters that Shami is a Quaker but appeared to backtrack this week.

On Tuesday, members of Shami’s campaign staff suggested that recent questions from the news media about his religion were racially motivated.

"Apparently, if you’re not lily white, some people will require you to pass a religious test in order to run for office in this country," campaign director Vince Leibowitz said.

K-T Musselman at Burnt Orange Report:

Earlier this week, I posted on an (sic) disappointing attack made by one of the minor Democratic gubernatorial candidates on Farouk Shami's faith. A number of other Texas media outlets wrote about some confusion and apparent backtracking by Shami as to whether he was Quaker, Muslim, or none of the above. ... I was a little disappointed at first that the release addressing the issue didn't answer the question which was raised as to what the actual response should be to attacks on Shami's faith- simply, what does he identify as?

Shami's statement on his religious beliefs:

I was born in the land of Abraham, believing in Moses, Jesus and Mohammad, and believing in one God. I grew up with members of my family and friends practicing multiple faiths: Islam, Judaism, and Christianity. I was also educated at a Quaker school. All of these things contributes to my relationship with God. To say simply ‘I'm a Muslim’ or ‘I'm a Quaker’ is to ignore major parts of my faith. I know it seems complicated that I do not have a pat answer to questions about what religion I am, but without my exposure to many different cultures and religious beliefs I wouldn't be the person I am today.

Although I'm not a member of any specific religious tradition, I do begin every day with prayer and meditation and have a strong personal relationship with God. I respect those who practice all faiths because I believe God gave us life to help one another, the poor, the sick and the oppressed. It is through God we can achieve peace, freedom and bring justice to the world. As Governor, I know, with God's help and guidance, I will be able to help every Texan have access to the American Dream just like I did—a good job, access to healthcare, and an excellent education for their children. That's why I feel called to run for office."

Glad that's all cleared up.

Shami's unconventional economic proposal is to build factories in hard-pressed Texas cities to construct solar panels to be placed on homes, free of charge.  Costs would be recouped by selling the generated electricity back to the power company, and once paid for, the panels then donated to the homeowner. A hundred thousand jobs would be created under this plan, presumably by the construction of the factories and then the factory and installer jobs themselves, along with -- again I would guess -- ancillary jobs from the investment, suppliers and so forth. From KHOU:

“I'm hoping within the first two years I will create a minimum of 100,000 jobs or I will resign and I am thinking I will give the state $10 million,” Shami said. “What do you think of that?”

Rice University and 11 News Political Expert Bob Stein had a different view.

“I think it will probably come off looking more like a gimmick than serious public policy,” he said. ...

Voter Scott Nethery said he wasn’t buying it right away.

“My first initial thoughts would be: unrealistic,” he said.

University of Houston Economist Barton Smith agreed. He called it “a stretch technologically” because solar panels are so expensive.

“(It is) something the private sector could not possibly do on its own given the current technology,” he said.

Shami also suggested this past week in a campaign appearance in El Paso that undocumented immigrants be granted amnesty in exchange for revealing criminal gangsters to law enforcement:

"We cannot continue to treat all undocumented workers as criminals. We must narrowly target the gangs that threaten our safety and to do that, undocumented workers must become our allies. Furthermore, we must give them incentives, beyond making their community safer, to come forward. That's why I want to work with the federal government to give legal status to anyone who contributes to the capture of gang members."

Lastly, Shami's transportation policy reveals him as favoring the end of both the Tran-Texas Corridor as well as the use of eminent domain "abuse". He proposes increases in the state gasoline tax to pay for his suggestions -- making him a rarity among candidates.

Update: What's sacred to Texas voters is the truth.

Friends running for office

-- Rachel Barrios-Van Os, for Bexar County Clerk. Yes, she's related to one of my very favorite dudes. One of her primary opponents is former Bexar County Democratic Party chair Carla Vela, who does not use e-mail ("it's too complicated") and noticed just last month that $200,000 was missing from the county party''s treasury.

... Vela struggled to explain how she only learned two days ago that Adams had been draining money from the party's primary account for 13 months.

That's despite County Auditor Tommy Tompkins' public complaints in August that the party had bounced a $100,000 check to the county for 2008 primary expenses.

At that time, Vela insisted the problem simply was a bank error. She said Wednesday that Adams told her “the bank gave us the wrong account number” when Compass Bank took over Laredo National Bank in 2008. She added that Tompkins never formally notified her that the check had bounced.

Tompkins disputed both of those points Wednesday.

“The check was bounced because there were insufficient funds to cover that $100,000, not because of a closed or wrong account,” he said. “I find it hard to believe that (Vela) is saying she just now found out about it when she had an e-mail I sent her back in July.”

Barrios-Van Os is hosting a meet-and-greet over dinner next week in San Antonio.

-- Jefferson County assistant auditor Keith Hawkes, for county treasurer.  Keith is a fraternity brother from college and has a compelling life story. This article in the Beaumont Enterprise online mentions six races in Jefferson County that will be decided on the Democratic ticket.

-- And Jody Crump, Orange County's first Republican and a childhood friend of my younger brother, challenges long-time Democratic incumbent Precinct 4 Commissioner Beamon Minton -- whose daughters also attended grade school with me.

-- No connection to me except through Southeast Texas: Hardin County officials who switched parties -- Democratic to Republican -- late last year also have several challengers:

Hardin County Democrats who filed for office Monday include Russell Wright for county judge; Sharon Overstreet for county treasurer; Chris Barnes and Thomas Tyler Jr. for Precinct 1 justice of the peace; and Valerie Stewart for Precinct 6 justice of the peace.

Hardin County is worth watching closely regarding the success of the TeaBagger phenomenon in suburban/exurban/rural Texas.

Bloggateering with the Mayor

A few of us local online pundits celebrated with Mayor Annise Parker at La Griglia last evening.

Attorneys Roland Garcia and Neil Thomas sponsored the event, and several of the mayor's staff joined in paying tribute to the Houston progressive blogging contingent who supported Parker's mayoral victory last month.

More photos here.

Update: Join Charles and Stace and David this Tuesday for a post-mortem on Houston's municipal elections at the Houston Area Table lunchtime meet-up.

Sunday Funnies

An open letter to Pat Robertson, from Lucifer

Dear Pat,

I know that you know that all press is good press, so I appreciate the shout-out. And you make God look like a big mean bully who kicks people when they are down, so I'm all over that action. But when you say that Haiti has made a pact with me, it is totally humiliating.

I may be evil incarnate, but I'm no welsher.

The way you put it, making a deal with me leaves folks desperate and impoverished. Sure, in the afterlife, but when I strike bargains with people they first get something here on Earth -- glamour, beauty, talent, wealth, fame, glory, a golden fiddle. Those Haitians have nothing, and I mean nothing. And that was before the earthquake.

Haven't you seen "Crossroads"? Or "Damn Yankees"? If I had a thing going with Haiti, there'd be lots of banks, skyscrapers, SUVs, exclusive night clubs, Botox -- that kind of thing. An 80 percent poverty rate is so not my style. Nothing against it -- I'm just saying: Not how I roll.

You're doing great work, Pat, and I don't want to clip your wings -- just, come on, you're making me look bad. And not the good kind of bad. Keep blaming God. That's working. But leave me out of it, please. Or we may need to renegotiate your own contract.

Best,

Satan

Update: God's presser ...

In the wake of his comments about the earthquake in Haiti, televangelist Pat Robertson has become a "public relations nightmare" and a "gynormous embarrassment to me, personally," God said today.

In a rare press conference at the Grand Hyatt in New York City, the usually reclusive Almighty said that He was taking the unusual step of airing His feelings in public because "enough is enough."

"I pray that his TV show would just go away, but of course, when you're Me there's no one to pray to," God said, to the laughter of the packed room of reporters.

While God held out no hope that Rev. Robertson's "700 Club" would be cancelled any time soon, He did say, somewhat ruefully, "If Pat Robertson were on NBC he'd be replaced by Jay Leno by now."

Some post-debate punditry *updates*

(Hutchison) came out swinging with a smile, repeatedly challenging (Perry's) leadership. He didn't hold back on criticizing her, hard, and defending his record.

As often as they could, the two took the fight directly to each other on issues important to all Texans, including the budget and taxes.

Activist Debra Medina didn't fade into the background, as she well might have, sharing a stage with two powerhouses. She stood her ground and presented her limited-government point of view staunchly, winning kudos from a Hutchison staffer afterward for her command of the facts.

More detail on budget fixes from Perry and Hutchision would have been good. Cut where? How much can you really scrub from the budget without hurting vulnerable Texans.

-- Peggy Fikac of Texas Politics

I agree with Senator Hutchison that Texas future is at risk because we are failing to educate so many Texans. Dropout rates are among the highest in the nation and college tuition has been skyrocketing. ... And yet, in a one hour debate, Governor Perry never accepted accountability for the failures of public education or described how we could improve it and bring down skyrocketing college tuition rates. Our state deserves better than that.

Much of the debate consisted of complaints about the federal government, rather than solutions for Texas.

-- Bill White

(Last night's debate was) a childish squabbling match to see who can be the most far right reactionary candidate. ... Things in Texas are heading in the wrong direction. The cost of health care and health insurance are out of control, the quality of basic public education is falling, and our air, land and water are under constant threat from polluters. We simply can't settle for more business as usual.

It is more important than ever for the other Democratic candidates for Governor to have the opportunity for meaningful dialogue. I hope Bill White will rethink his decision to not debate the other candidates in a public forum.

-- Farouk Shami

Senator Hutchison walks away with a pretty clear win tonight, with a powerful assist by Debra Medina, who now becomes the credible third option in this race in the eyes of everyone watching tonight. And Democrats, of course, walk away from the debate happy -- the incumbent got pounded, the dark horse got a huge boost in credibility, and enough slime got thrown around to make us look forward to the rest of the Republican primary race.

-- George Nasser at The Texas Blue

Governor Perry looked tired and irritated. Senator Hutchison remained calm and collected, while smiling, as she responded to Perry's attacks. Hutchison used a debate style move of posing a question to Medina that was a direct swipe at Perry. Medina made mention several times that the other two would respond as typical politicians to questions. ...

While Hutchison was grilled on her abortion stance, Medina was not asked about her decision to home school her children and only teach creationism to them while ignoring evolution. She believes the age of earth is not settled and that it must only be about 4,000 years old, as biblical teachings direct her. She was asked about her practice of carrying a gun without a conceal carry license, which is legal in Texas. You may be interested in knowing she does not take it into the grocery store.

-- moderate conservative blogger Pondering Penguin

And some non-partisan reporting from Aman Batheja at Poli-Tex. More updates to this post later today.

Update: Burka, excerpted in easy-to-digest small bites.

Maybe the question is: Was there a winner? Well, the format was a winner. ...

... But televised debates are as much about images as about words, and I thought (Perry) looked terrible, even creepy at times. He really looked uncomfortable. Sometimes he wore a frozen grin, sometimes it was a smirk; whatever it was, it transmitted, “I don’t want to be here.” He was constantly on the defensive. When he said how well Texas is doing (in job creation) Medina shot back, You’re using 07 figures. Perry is not very good when he is on the defensive. He is very good when he is on the attack....

Hutchison had one terrible moment. It came when David Montgomery asked about her support for Roe v. Wade. She sidestepped the issue. Other panelists tried to get her to give a straight answer. She handled it so badly that the audience laughed. That is never good. ... If it had not been for the abortion question, I would have said that Hutchison won the debate, but that was a disaster for Hutchison. ...

I was hoping for more from Debra Medina, but I don’t think she made a case for herself as a major candidate for governor. Medina marginalized herself by concentrating on fringe issues, such as open carry (guns), legalization of drugs, and other libertarian positions. ... It seemed evident that she and Perry are fighting over the same constituency on the right.

The campaign will now move to the airwaves. Perry so far has had a huge advantage. His TV is so much better than Hutchison’s, his messages so much clearer. Thirty-three days to go before the start of early voting.

Wayne Slater at the DMN, also noticing the pointlessness of KBH's nuanced position on abortion among GOP primary lunatics voters:

Kay Bailey Hutchison had to convince Republican primary voters of two things in Thursday's debate: why they should boot Rick Perry out of the governor's office and why they should put her in.

The veteran senator offered plenty of ammunition for the first: toll roads, new taxes, school dropouts under Perry's tenure and the dark warning of creeping cronyism in Austin.

But for the voters she needs – the conservative, small-government, anti-abortion party activists who will dominate turnout in March – the reason to pick her seemed a less convincing case.

No issue animates social conservatives like abortion. And for anti-abortion forces in the GOP, Hutchison's views on that always have been a problem.

When a panelist asked Hutchison about her vote against overturning the Roe vs. Wade court decision legalizing abortion, Hutchison rolled out her conservative credentials. ...

The answer – nuanced and reasoned – probably isn't what many in the GOP primary electorate wanted to hear. And those are the voters she, Perry and Debra Medina will be vying for in the primary.

Also check out the "heat index" veracity-checking of some of the claims made by last night's participants at TrailBlazers (Ryan Rusak gets the credit). Lastly, Jason Embry from the Statesman, followed by satirist Ken Herman with the zombie video.

The debate was notable for the themes it didn't hit. There was hardly any discussion of public education or state transportation policies, and the candidates laid out few specific ideas about what they want to do in office. ...

There were no major gaffes, although each candidate mangled a line or two. And no candidate was particularly specific when asked how to solve the state's looming budget shortfall, which the state is facing in large part because Perry and lawmakers have committed billions of dollars every year to hold down property taxes.

===================

Well, now you've heard it straight from the GOP gubernatorial candidates. The decision is in: Texas, our Texas, is the greatest state in the land.

And if you tuned into Thursday night's GOP gubernatorial debate, you'd have reason to believe that Gov. Rick Perry and challenger Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison each are individually responsible for our wonderfulness.

Both were certain in praising Texas' near-perfection. Neither, somehow, had much to say about any current problems, much less offering a solution to any current problems.

The short version: no runs, no hits, no errors and nary a word about solutions.

Update II: More on those zombies -- the ones outside the hall, not inside -- from Aman Batheja.