Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Take your Dramamine

...because it's all spin all the time.

Clinton won.

Expectations can be a bitch. The recent polls showing Obama moving up (especially in Clinton country i.e. CA & NJ) plus those early exit polls today certainly created some expectations for tonight that simply weren't met ...

No wait; Obama won.

I don't see how Clinton can win the nomination now. I think she still has a chance...she didn't get knocked out...but it's now Obama's race to lose. He's got more money, he's got more mojo, and Clinton doesn't have any more Arkansas or New Yorks left on the schedule.

As previously snarked, it depends on what the definition of "win" is.

Oh, and while you were watching the piefight, the recession got here. You better have saved the good meds.

Catholics get their ashes, but Mitt bites the dust

He'll be out no later than the weekend:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney pledged to fight all the way to the Republican nominating convention this summer if necessary, despite being overpowered by John McCain in Super Tuesday contests.

Where have we heard a candidate pledge to battle all the way to the end, only to quit in the next breath? (That doesn't sound too bitter, does it?)

Now if I were Romney, I would withdraw today and endorse Huckster, just to jack with McCain -- and every other Republican who has slammed them both. Of course Mittens despises both men so much that I doubt he will endorse anybody.

McCain-Huckabee? Or McCain-Giuliani? Lord have mercy on their souls.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

H2O? No.

Big Ornge:

Obama has, at this point, won 11 states, of 22 in play. Worst-case scenario, he's already won half. If he picks up Alaska, which I suspect he will, he wins the battle of the states.

California is looking like it might head SUSA's way, so that'll be good news for Hillary. But the rest of the night is bleak. She didn't exceed expectations anywhere. She lost states she led big in just a few weeks ago. She's hurting for money. The calendar up ahead is tailor made for Obama. The momentum is there.

And hey, look at that -- Obama just took the lead in Missouri.

Clinton has a big win in CA. Obama has an upset in CT and a comeback victory in MO. Obama wins at least eleven twelve states, significantly exceeding expectations (ten days ago he led the polling in just two states). Clinton leads overall in delegates. Update: Obama wins with over 60% in eight states and three of those with more than 70% of the vote; Clinton wins only one state with 60%+ (Arkansas).

And the attention now turns to Ohio and Texas, voting in exactly one month.

All the way to Denver, all the way down to the wire.

Update (2/6): A great take here from Richard Dunham at Texas on the Potomac:

Best line of the night: Mike Huckabee.

Huckabee has accused Republican rival Mitt Romney of flip-flopping on issues including abortion, gun control and gay rights, declared that Romney now has changed his position on "whining." You see, Romney complained bitterly on Super Tuesday about the tactics used by Huckabee to win the 18 delegates in West Virginia.

"You know, yesterday, Mitt Romney was saying, 'Don't be a whiner,'" Huckabee told CNN. "Now, yesterday he was against whining. Today, he's for whining."

Worst endorsement: John Kerry (of Barack Obama).

The 2004 Democratic presidential nominee couldn't even deliver his own home state.

Best endorsement: Scarlett Johannson (of Barack Obama).

Kerry and Teddy Kennedy failed to bring Massachusetts into the Obama column, but the 23-year-old movie star did her (small) part to create record turnout in Minnesota's Democratic caucuses, including unprecedented participation by the young voters Johannson targeted. Plus, she looks better in photos than Teddy and Kerry.

Biggest upset: Huckabee's win in Alabama.

Mitt Romney ran far below expectations in Alabama, and conservative evangelicals gave Huckabee a narrow win over McCain.

Most interesting race of the night: Missouri.

In the state that has the best track record of picking presidents of any state in the union, both parties had very close contests. With 98 percent of the Missouri vote in, Obama was clinging to a 1 percentage point lead over Clinton. And the Republicans had a tight three-way race, finally won by McCain.

Least interesting race of the night: New York.

Hillary Clinton and John McCain won landslide victories. Lots of delegates. No drama.

Best newspaper story of the night: Michael Tackett of the Chicago Tribune.

Tackett began his story on Super Tuesday by declaring:

As a former president might put it, maybe it depends on what the definition of "win'' is.

McHuckaney

Chaos theory in evidence on the starboard side:

Huckabee beat rivals John McCain and Mitt Romney in West Virginia, Alabama and his home state, and early returns showed him leading in a few more Super Tuesday states. He said he would emerge from the virtual national primary contests as the alternative to McCain, the Arizona senator and Republican front-runner.

"I've got to say that Mitt Romney was right about one thing — this is a two-man race. He was just wrong about who the other man in the race was. It's me, not him," Huckabee said.

Mittens was the winner in Utah amd Massachusetts -- huge upsets for him. But the story of the night has to be the surging candidacy of Gomer Pyle, who has swept through the South and upset the applecart for the GOP. The chattering class seems to think he's won his way into the vice-presidential slot.

McCain-Huckabee. That is really, really funny.

Super Fat Tuesday

Lots of partyin' to do: