The GOP's fissures (and a possible brokered convention)

I would really like to be blogging more about the Democratic's presidential candidates, but the Repukes are just too entertaining to ignore.

This is the kind of fantastical speculation I enjoy making, as well as reading -- and it's certainly on the minds of quite a few conservatives, you can bet. First, BooMan, and the backstory has to do with John McCain's lawyering up over his relationship with that Washington lobbyist (no, it's not sexual; just click over for the explanation then pick it back up here):

If John McCain does not emerge as the Republican nominee, there's a good likelihood that the GOP is going to be in for a long, strange ride. Let's walk though this.

If Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa, I expect McCain to surge ahead of Romney in New Hampshire and win that state. This will set up a death match between McCain and Huckabee that will go down to the wire. Giuliani could conceivably get into the mix by winning Florida, but he seems too damaged by recent scandals to have much hope. Fred Thompson will go nowhere.

But if McCain has some bad news in the next three weeks that prevents him from capitalizing on a Huckabee win in Iowa, then Romney will likely prevail in the Granite State. We could easily see McCain, Thompson, and Duncan Hunter drop out after New Hampshire or South Carolina. We could see Giuliani drop out after Florida. And we'll be left with Huckabee, Romney, and Ron Paul. And Ron Paul will have enough money to compete everywhere on Super Duper Tuesday, while Huckabee will not, and Romney will have to spend his own fortune.

Even in this scenario, I do not expect Ron Paul to win the nomination, or even any states (although he could win a couple). But he could easily rack up a fifth of the available delegates in a three-way race. Imagine the Republican convention if Ron Paul has the third biggest block of delegates.

Let's go even further here. Assuming that Romney's delegates are more Mormon than his overall universe of support and that Huckabee's delegates are more Southern Baptist than his overall universe of support, and that Ron Paul's delegates are... well... the most enthusiastic and dedicated of Ron Paul's supporters... the Minneapolis convention is going to be a assembly of the cultural fringe. It's hard to picture your average Martha's Vineyard Republican fitting in, exactly.

The Democratic competition is no less fluid, but all the candidates are at least culturally acceptable to the whole range of the Democratic electorate. Our convention will be one big inclusive feel-good party no matter who wins the nomination.

I guess my question is: what will it mean for the GOP over the short to medium term if their convention is completely dominated by Huckabee, Romney, and Paul supporters?

Why, it could mean a brokered convention and perhaps a Newt Gingrich nomination. That kind of deal precludes Paul running third party, especially if he gets promised some plum Cabinet job like Secretary of Commerce. Romney becomes the vice-presidential nominee strictly on the basis of his money, and Huckabee gets to be Secretary of Christianity Implementation.

Maybe Dubya could be a uniter and not a divider after all.

As one of BT's commenters notes, our worst-case November scenario is Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain, and I would add 'with no third-party conservative candidate'. Our generic best-case is anybody vs. Huckabee.

And since this post is about the Repugs, I'm sure I forgot to mention that John Edwards is surging in Iowa while Hillary and Obama beat each other up.

Tancredo self-deports

Ha Ha Ha Ha.

Run third party, you lunatic, and let's see exactly how much support your one-issue candidacy actually has.

It has been demonstrated repeatedly, most recently this week in the suburbs of Fort Worth, that immigration is wedging the Republican base. Even Karl Rove and Dubya know it's a loser, yet still the Nativists wail and gnash their teeth.

Keep at it for at least another year, please. Make illegal immigration the core issue in every single statehouse, Congressional, and Senate and judicial race on the ballot.

Pretty please. Morons.

Update: (12/22): Welcome Lone Star Diary click-overs (all three of you)! You're exactly who I'm talking to -- but only if you completely agree with the moron who runs that one-note blog. Happy Holidays!

Last-minute Christmas shopping postpourri

-- at last night's HCDP Holiday Party, I met Dan Grant and Michael Skelly and Bert Moser (another of our highly qualified candidates for justice on the 14th Court of Appeals) and Dale Henry, whose campaign has this pretty excellent video up:



Unfortunately I also got word that one of my favorite judicial candidates from the last cycle, Chuck Silverman, was not going to make the race this time.

-- We have a candidate for Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme Court: Jim Jordan of Dallas.

Update (12/21): Jordan's bio (courtesy Quorum Report's Daily Buzz, their emphasis):

Jordan, a veteran civil defense attorney and past member of the Texas Association of Defense Counsel, noted a serious backlog in cases at the state’s highest court. "They are failing to do their work as the backlog in cases has reached record levels."

Jordan, who currently presides over the 160^th District Court in Dallas, is Board Certified in Civil Trial Law — a certification earned by less than 2% of Texas Lawyers.

"When the system is broken, the responsibility must fall on the leader," Jordan noted, explaining his decision to seek the Chief Justice position. "I am running for Chief Justice because this Court has lost its way. Instead of upholding the law, it is advancing an ideology," Jordan added, referring to a recent study released by a University of Texas law professor that criticized the court for routinely exceeding its Constitutional authority, ignoring the role of juries, and using the bench to make policy instead of deciding questions of law.

Jordan, who first presided over the 44^th District Court in Dallas, was a partner with the firm Shannon, Gracey, Ratliff & Miller before returning to the bench. In 2006, he won election to the 160^th District Court.

Jordan caught the Dallas County blue wave in 2006 and hopes to repeat the feat statewide next year. I of course think he's onto something.

-- Pooty Poot is TIME's Man. Well, "I" can't win every year (and neither can "you").

-- Nope, nobody cares what Joe Lieberman does any more. And I mean Nooooobody.

-- How the Iowa caucuses work, and why John Edwards will win: because he's almost everybody's second choice (and why Hillary will trail -- because she is nearly no one's).

-- A Mafia museum in Vegas. Can't wait to see it.

-- The NSA has real-time access to your e-mail. Yes, yours. In my case they probably think I have both ED and a small penis, not to mention being a Wall Street penny stock tycoon and an important business associate of several Nigerian concerns.

A master's degree in Creation Science

When it comes to the Texas Education Agency, you CAN make this shit up (and, sadly, it will be accurate):

A Texas higher education panel has recommended allowing a Bible-based group called the Institute for Creation Research to offer online master’s degrees in science education.

The "Institute for Creation Research". Their library and archives consist of one book.

The state’s commissioner of higher education, Raymund A. Paredes, said late Monday that he was aware of the institute’s opposition to evolution but was withholding judgment until the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board meets Jan. 24 to rule on the recommendation, made last Friday, by the board’s certification advisory council.

Henry Morris III, the chief executive of the Institute for Creation Research, said Tuesday that the proposed curriculum, taught in California, used faculty and textbooks “from all the top schools” along with, he said, the “value added” of challenges to standard teachings of evolution.

“Where the difference is, we provide both sides of the story,” Mr. Morris said. On its Web site, the institute declares, “All things in the universe were created and made by God in the six literal days of the creation week” and says it “equips believers with evidences of the Bible’s accuracy and authority through scientific research, educational programs, and media presentations, all conducted within a thoroughly biblical framework.”

It also says “the harmful consequences of evolutionary thinking on families and society (abortion, promiscuity, drug abuse, homosexuality and many others) are evident all around us.”

"Both sides of the story". Aha. Fair and balanced. Note that the critical thinking comes in when they survey the evidence "all around us". Wait, it gets better:

Asked how the institute could educate students to teach science, Dr. Paredes, who holds a doctorate in American civilization from the University of Texas and served 10 years as vice chancellor for academic development at the University of California, said, “I don’t know. I’m not a scientist.”

He said he had no ready explanation for the panel’s recommendation. “I asked about the decision,” Dr. Paredes said Monday in a phone interview from Austin. “I got a three-inch-thick folder an hour ago. We’re going to give it a full review.” But, he said, “If it’s approved, we’ll make sure it’s of high quality.”

Approval would allow the institute, which moved to Dallas this year from near San Diego, to offer the online graduate program almost immediately while seeking accreditation from national academic authorities like the Southern Association of Schools and Colleges within two years.

This comes, as you may recall, on the heels of this:

The action comes weeks after the Texas Education Agency’s director of science, Christine Castillo Comer, lost her job after superiors accused her of displaying bias against creationism and failing to be “neutral” over the teaching of evolution. ...

Last month, in a sign that Texas was being drawn deeper into creationism controversy, Ms. Comer, 57, was put under pressure to resign as science director after forwarding an e-mail message about a talk by a creationism critic, Barbara Forrest, a professor at Southeastern Louisiana State University.

Lizzette Reynolds, a deputy commissioner who called for Ms. Comer’s dismissal, later told The Austin American-Statesman she was surprised she resigned. Ms. Reynolds did not respond to a message left at her office.

The Texas Education commissioner, Robert Scott, told The Dallas Morning News that Ms. Comer was not forced out over the message, adding, “You can be in favor of science without bashing people’s faith.” He did not return phone calls to his office.

Ms. Comer said the commissioner should show her where she was bashing anyone’s faith. “He just doesn’t get it,” she said.

Res ipsa loquitur. And rather than add any editorial comment to the news above, let me simply say that I believe it's time Texas had a post-baccalaureate degree program in Pastafarianism. Who's with me?