Kay Bailey doesn't heart Dubya any more

Q. What's the difference between the senior senator from Texas and a washing machine?


A. A washing machine doesn't follow George W Bush around for weeks after he dumps a load in it.

And if the President had known that all it would take was a little immigration reform legislation for Senator Perjury Technicality to get off his bandwagon ...

... he would have proposed it sooner.

Kronberg: "A Hispanic with charisma (and money) will transform Texas politics"

Last week I attended a town hall forum with the editor of Quorum Report, Harvey Kronberg, sponsored by my previous state representative and my current one. Truth to tell, I went mostly to see and hear them. I respect what Kronberg does, I just think there are a few of us New Media types -- such as Charles and Vince -- who do what he does better and without the annoying $300 subscription.

Let me first say that I left with a tremendously increased respect for Kronberg, who after 18 years of following the Lege is probably better connected than anyone. Better than Burka, better than Selby, better than Radcliffe. What I never really got from him before were the insights from all of that history. Most of you know I'm a history buff; "lessons/doomed to repeat" and all that.

In an evening filled with one cogent analysis after another -- at one point I saw even Rep. Cohen taking notes -- the one that kept my ears ringing a week later is the one in the headline. But I'll come back to it in a moment.

Kronberg doesn't get back to Houston all that often apparently, and speaks to the public even less frequently, but the Kaplan Theatre at the Jewish Community Center in Meyerland holds a special place for him. He grew up in Houston, went to Bellaire High School, and his first summer job was as a projectionist "up there", as he pointed to the booth over our heads. He also noted that he was perhaps the only journalist who is also a "practicing capitalist" -- as the owner of two flag and flagpole businesses, in Austin (where he lives) and Houston -- so he knows about the challenges of making payroll, meeting the onerous small business regulations, and so on. This appears to give him, in his media role, the philosophical ability to cross seamlessly from one side of the aisle to the other, keeping amiable acquaintance with both D's and R's while at the same time buffing his non-partisan credentials.

The first observation I noted was that redistricting marginalizes the general election voter. Every two years the voters get to choose their representative, and every ten years (or less) the representatives choose their voters. With the inherently polarizing nature of the redistricting/gerrymandering sausage-making, the end result is that a successful politician is compelled to accede to the wishes of his district's most active voters, i.e. his or her "base", also known as the Democratic and Republican primary voters. These people are not renowned to be moderate or centrist. In fact, quite the opposite. Because the districts have been specifically populated to elect and re-elect a Democrat or a Republican, then the real electoral challenge comes -- you guessed it -- in the primary. Thus, in November many contests between the parties are viewed as no contest.

What kind of politician does this produce? The kind viewed as "extreme" -- by both ends of the political spectrum.

The second observation Kronberg made was of the Republican Party at large, not just in Texas -- the social, libertarian, and economic wings of the GOP are splintering, and thus their dominance of government is coming to an end.

He's dead solid perfect in this analysis. Just look at how the xenophobic crackers, the base of the party for too long now, are abandoning Bush and the rest of the Republicans who are pushing for the compromise Senate legislation on immigration.

One of this coffin's final nails will be driven in 2008 by a neoconservative third-party presidential challenge from the likes of Tom Tancrazy or another of that ilk. And the popularity of Ron Paul's quixotic bid among a Kucinich-sized segment of Republicans points out how, *ahem*, "diverse" the GOP is suddenly becoming.

The announcement yesterday of Michael Bloomberg's resignation from the Republican Party -- meant to fuel his own political ambition -- is an example of the moderate conservatives getting out from under the GOP's tent. (I predict we will very shortly see a similar announcement from Joe Lieberman. The only difference is that he stopped being a Democrat years before Bloomberg did.)

Abortion, taxes, property taxes at the state level -- all issues that the social or libertarian or economic zealots feel strongly about, but their respective counterparts grimace in distaste over. That spells doom for the legislative coalition that Jerry Falwell and Ralph Reed and Newt Gingrich cobbled together almost twenty years ago.

(Good riddance to bad rubbish, I say.)

The remaining observations I scribbled down were more Texas-centric but no less accurate: that members in both chambers pushed back successfully against their leadership. Lt. Gov. Dewhurst stepped into a big pile of his own dookie when his office released the letter that was hyper-critical of the Senate's efforts to throttle the voter ID bill. Kronberg noted something that he found to be one of the most profound developments in his tenure of covering the Lege, and that was the Senate's virtual unseating of its leader for a two-week period following the dustup.

Senators, Kronberg noted, operate almost as chief executives of their regions. They have, for example, a near-gubernatorial power to veto the governor's appointments of people -- judges, state commissions, etc. -- who happen to reside within their district's boundaries. Dewhurst, after all those years presiding over the Senate, simply forgot or perhaps ignored the fact that he serves as their leader at their pleasure. And they pointedly reminded him of that fact.

Speaker Craddick's self-inflicted troubles are already well-documented, of course.

One other politically astute thing Kronberg pointed out was the percentage of voters within a statehouse district who opposed Proposition 2 -- the one banning gay marriage, in 2005, which passed with 76% of the statewide vote -- might indicate a district that could be ready to flip from red to blue ... if that percentage was somewhat closer to 50%.

And finally, to the Q&A:

-- Kronberg anticipates a special legislative session over property taxes. And after that, perhaps one on Voter ID.

-- Harvey does not agree with me that Hillary Clinton is bad for Texas Democrats down the ballot in 2008. He says, and I quote as nearly verbatim as possible, that "there are already too many districts voting R at the top and D down-ballot" for this to be a problem.

-- And to the headline, as well as to both the voter ID and the immigration brouhaha, Kronberg noted that he was puzzled by the conservative hysteria over both issues. "Texas Latinos who are legal now and don't vote make up more than 50% of the state's population. The numbers are huge in west Texas." With that comment I suddenly flashed on my experience in Plainview -- hardly "west" Texas, between Lubbock and Amarillo -- as a Junior Achievement counselor at the high school there, and a remark made by one of the school's administrators: that over 50% of the children in grades K-12 were Hispanic. This was in 1988.

Texas, you may recall, became a majority-minority state in 2004.

The Hispanic vote, statewide and nationwide, is apparently waiting to be motivated by the right candidate -- probably irrespective of party affiliation. They will be an electoral tsunami, completely altering the political landscape, once the tide finally reaches the shore. Who will be the candidate that does this? Will it be Bill Richardson?

Or Rick Noriega, perhaps?

And starring Hillary Clinton as Tony Soprano

"Sheer brilliance"? Gee, I suppose -- if handing your opponents a loaded shotgun falls in the same category:

Hillary walks into the Mount Kisco diner in Westchester, N.Y., and takes a seat. Seconds later in comes Bill, dressed in a short-sleeved, untucked shirt. "No onion rings?" Bill asks when he sees that his wife has ordered a bowl of carrots. "I'm looking out for you," replies Hillary, who peruses the diner's jukebox selections, the same tunes voted on by her campaign supporters. Tina Turner's "The Best." KT Tunstall's "Suddenly I See." Smash Mouth's "I'm a Believer." Bill says he thinks Smash Mouth will win. "We'll see," Hillary says.

Then the camera fades to black.

You don't suppose this is the end for her campaign, do you?

Naaahh. We couldn't be so lucky.

Clinton's camp is pushing hard for video cred, and yesterday's effort is proof. Forget that the self-inflicted analogy -- the Clintons as the Sopranos -- might be too irresistible for her detractors.

Guilty, Your Honor.

And for hard-core fans, the video might bring to mind the Monica Lewinsky scandal. In the show's third season, Carmela, wife of the philandering Tony, talks about her admiration for how Hillary handled her marital woes. "She's a role model for all of us," Carmela tells her gussied-up gal pals.

Another association the junior senator from New York couldn't have missed.

"It shows that Hillary Clinton is very adeptly using the Internet to humanize herself."

As if the Clintons haven't been "humanized" enough as it is.

"Yet the jury's out on whether everybody finds it charming that they're self-effacing or that they are in fact drawing a parallel that is really ironic and not flattering regarding what's seen as the liabilities of the Clintons. That they're very aggressive in trying to scare away donors from other campaigns. The perception that they engage in strong-arm tactics. Still, you have to hand it to Hillary. You can't get more Joe Sixpack than Tony Soprano."

Then again, nothing is more anti-Tony Soprano than Celine Dion.

Bada bing.

Update: Firedoglake has a response to a truly unhinged right-wing reaction to the video.

Update II (6/21): Prairie Weather:

Maybe the "vast right-wing conspiracy" stuffed the electronic ballot box with votes for a tune by a French-Canadian diva most famous for presiding, musically speaking, over the sinking of the Titanic.

Speaking of people thinking about running for political office

... there's several places in the mainstream media (here's one -- scroll down to near the end -- here's another) where my good friend and birthday buddy Barbara Radnofsky is indicating that she might run for Texas Attorney General in 2010. I thought I'd ask my man David what he thought about that, so I e-mailed him the following questions:

Q: Barbara Radnofsky reports she is considering a run for attorney general of Texas in 2010. Are you going to campaign for that office as well -- or will you support her candidacy if you don't?

Q. On the assumption that you will run for AG, why should Democrats vote for you in a primary election (three years from now) instead of Radnofsky? What are the differences you would highlight between you?

And here's his response:

A. I would like to answer the two questions together if that's OK. Barbara is my friend. We both have our strengths and we both have our weaknesses. Any political race between us in a Democratic primary would be enjoyable for the two of us and would give Democratic voters a good choice between two good Democrats and two good lawyers. Beyond that, I really think it's too early to be talking about 2010. Talking about 2010 will distract our focus from the job we have to do in 2008. We have to carry our state in 2008 and that is where we need to be concentrating our attention.

As Charles Kuffner would say: make of that what you will. Or maybe "stay tuned". Or both.

There's a Draft Noriega in here

Another member of Houston's distinguished Noriega family was beseeched today by several of your favorite blogs to take a run at John Cornyn. Since I'm going last, I get to sample everybody else. First, the Fort Bend County Democrats (via Hal):

We, the Fort Bend Democrats, as an organization, do hereby declare our support for State Representative Lt. Col. Rick Noriega to run for the United States Senate from Texas. We pledge our support – with our money, our time, and our manpower – to help Noriega win in November 2008.

Then there's Lyn:

I had the opportunity to speak with him at his wife Melissa's victory party Saturday night. I'm confident that with enough grassroots support, and funding, he will answer the call to run for Senate. He will run a great campaign, beat Mikal Watts despite his money and easily replace Box Turtle Cornyn in 2008.

And Vince:

No other announced or exploring candidate in the race has either Rick’s distinguished record of accomplishing things for the people of Texas or the ability to unify the Democratic base to take U.S. Senator John Cornyn on. We urge Rep. Noriega to seriously consider entering the race.

And Stace:

In my opinion, for a Democrat to win back our U.S. Senate seat in '08, it will take much more than just money. It will take a Democratic candidate that can effectively communicate with all sectors of the diverse community that is Texas; it will take a Democratic candidate with whom Texans identify; and it will take a Democratic candidate that has more than proven his/her ability to lead. DosCentavos readers, that Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in 2008 should be Rick Noriega--citizen, leader, father, worker, and soldier. I urge my readers and all Texans to declare their support and urge Rick Noriega to seek the Democratic nomination for United States Senate.

And Kuffner:

I think we will finally have a confluence of establishment and grassroots support at a statewide level with a Noriega candidacy. I believe people will get fired up about getting Rick Noriega elected. If nothing else, it's refreshing to see someone who isn't a same-old, same-old name as a standard-bearer. It feels like a changing of the guard, one that's long overdue. I think he can be a game-changer, someone who can alter politics in this state in a fundamental way, and in doing so alter Texas' image nationally. I'm told Harvey Kronberg expressed similar sentiments at the town hall meeting Ellen Cohen hosted last week; he apparently said this has been the talk of Austin as well. Who was the last statewide Democrat to generate that kind of buzz? Maybe Henry Cisneros, if you overlook the fact that he never ran a statewide race. It's about damn time.

And Burnt Orange:

Rep. Noriega is from Houston, and served recently as deputy garrison commander of the KMTC training facility in Kabul, Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom. He also served as the Laredo Border Sector Commander for Operation Jump Start. During the previous legislative session, Rep. Noriega successfully passed an amendment to the state budget to raise teacher pay as much as the rules allowed. (Read more on Rep. Noriega's background here). Overall, we believe his work and his experience make him an interesting candidate, and one who should be in the race to replace John Cornyn.

And McBlogger:

It's not often I'll jump out for a candidate this far away from the primary. It's also somewhat rare that the Mayor and I will disagree on anything. However, I'm doing something a little unusual because I'm ready to make some waves and I'm ready for a candidate that will

BEAT THE SHIT OUT OF CORNYN.

IMHO, that guy is Rick Noriega. Now, if we can only get him to run...

And Eye on Williamson:

Noriega has literally fought for our freedom and exercised it in the Texas House of Representatives for the benefit of working families. Others have written at length about Noriega’s qualifications. The most important thing you need to know is that Rick Noriega has served this nation and this state with honor. We hope in the days to come you will learn more about him and agree that he has the strength of character and leadership to spark hope in the hearts of long-suffering Texas’ working-class voters.

And the Great Orange Satan:

DraftNoriega.com is alive and kicking, while Richard Morrison gave us all an introduction to Noriega a couple of months ago. If all goes well and this doesn't fizzle like Alabama, we'll be hearing a lot about this race.

But before I wrap up this post, I'll leave you guys with this:

That's Major Rick Noriega with his right hand up. He was getting sworn in for his fourth term in the State House.

While serving in Afghanistan.

What could I possibly add to all that?

(Maybe a nasty post about Mikal Watts, but it can continue sitting in "draft" status for now. And maybe something to say later about the rumor that Chet Edwards is looking at making a run.)

Update (6/19): I should have added South Texas Chisme to the list above:

The race for the 2008 senate seat in Texas should be about building a new Democratic Party. If we want to win at all costs, the price will be our soul. The race for the 2008 senate seat in Texas should be about public service.

Rick Noriega stands out as a man ready for the job. He's already been called to public service as a National Guardsman in Afghanistan and a representative in the house. Rick is called again.

Sunday Funnies (Immigration Edition)

From the central counting office (not quite a live-blog)

Councilwoman-elect Melissa Noriega and her husband Rick.

4:00 p.m. Saturday, June 16: I arrive downtown at the Harris County administration building and proceed to the elections office on the 4th floor. I will be the Noriega campaign's poll watcher, which means I get to observe all of the operations of the county election officials as they process the vote. I meet Beverley Kaufman, county clerk and others and they begin tabulating the absentee and early voting results.

Two early voting locations list a report of broken seals on DREs. I document these carefully, but broken seals are not necessarily evidence of malicious activity. The seals are flimsy -- they have the thickness of a small paperclip and are similar to the kind you would see on your electricity meter, so they could break simply from normal handling (never mind sloppy or rough).

On the other hand, a missing seal or a seal whose serial number doesn't match its accompanying records would be evidence that might trigger a felony vote-tampering investigation. There is no evidence of anything like this witnessed by me; the county officials are experienced, thorough and committed to quality control.

5:35 p.m.: The absentee ballots favor Morales slightly -- by about 70 votes out of more than 5,000 -- but Noriega amasses a 1,300-vote margin in the early ballots, and takes a lead (54.5% to 45.5%) she will never relinquish. These results will not be made public until after the polls close at 7 p.m. Our cellphones are silenced, and leaving the room even to go to the bathroom is strongly discouraged. There is a sheriff's deputy present (for any variety of order enforcement scenarios).

7:00 p.m.: Polls close, the results above are posted online. In the Gadget Age, most everyone who cares gets the count from the website now; there is only one media representative in the adjacent press room. He's a very young man from the Chronicle who looks no more thrilled about spending his Saturday night in a downtown office than the rest of us.

7:15 p.m.: The tabulators downtown touch base with the county's subordinate officials collecting the mobile ballot boxes at the George R Brown convention center; this is where the precinct judges around the city are arriving with their e-Slates, from which is extracted the computer cards which are read and the results fed back to us. These updates continue until ...

7:59 p.m.: ... the results from 20 precincts are posted, showing Noriega with about a 1.400-vote lead out of 13,635 ballots counted. The counters continue to post results online about every fifteen minutes, and the raw numbers naturally go up but the end result doesn't change. Melissa is cruising to an easy win.

9:23 p.m.: With 80% of all voting precincts counted, Noriega has 12,453 votes to Morales' 9,910. The percentages are 55.7 -- 44.3.

The first interesting and-not-in-a-good-way development: there is one precinct's ballot box unaccounted for, and reports from the field indicate that the precinct judge is as well. Attempts are initiated to determine his whereabouts, involving the afore-mentioned sheriff's deputies. He was last reported leaving his home at 7:45, dropping his wife off before driving into town from one of the far west exurbs.

10:04 p.m.: Almost in time for the evening news, 99.61% of precincts (256 of 257) show Noriega still holding 55.5% of the tally. In the nation's fourth largest city, with a population of four million -- greater than that of 16 states -- an at-large representative gets elected with less than 25,000 votes cast.

10:45 p.m.: That AWOL judge and his ballot box show up at last, and his 100+ votes complete the count. One worthy note: Houston residents residing in Fort Bend county go Noriega 164-44. That's the absolutely final, fitting stick in the eye to Tom DeLay (it was Shelley Gibbs who resigned this city council seat to sit in the Hammer's chair for a month before Nick Lampson took it over).

I can't wait to work a presidential; I'll get to stay up 'til dawn providing you with such stimulating after-the-fact commentary.