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Friday, June 07, 2019

The Weekly Twenty Twenty Update

Debate breaking news first:

... (W)ith less than a week for candidates to hit the threshold to make the debate stage, the Democratic National Committee announced a rule change which leaves Montana Gov. Steve Bullock on the outside looking in. Bullock had qualified for the first debates (in Miami at the end of June) based on polling, but the DNC said on Thursday that two ABC News/Washington Post polls -- one of which had put Bullock over the top -- would no longer be counted. As of Thursday afternoon, that left 20 candidates who had met thresholds via polling and/or fundraising.


Joe Biden's lousy week next:

Former Vice President Joe Biden's position on the Hyde Amendment -- a longstanding flash point involving the prohibition on federal funds being used for certain types of abortions -- now rests in an odd state of nuance.

"He has not at this point changed his position," his campaign put forward in a statement, leaving open the possibility, if not the probability, that Biden would at a later point support the provision's repeal.

And as sure as the flip-flops are ready to hit the beach ...


That was just one of his three gaffes.

This happened when Biden tried not to move left this week. When he did nod in the progressive direction, with a climate change policy that pays homage to the Green New Deal, a sloppy campaign copy-and-paste revived memories of plagiarism that earned another Twitter blast from President Donald Trump.

Also this week, when Biden had a brief close chat with a New Hampshire voter, he made sure he told the press directly that "she pulled me close."

Uncle Joe is going to have a really bad debate night.  I smell the end near for him.

-- Joe Biden Worked to Undermine the Affordable Care Act’s Coverage of Contraception

-- Guess who else voted against federal funding for abortion?

Let's see what the twenty who are currently debating in a few weeks, plus a few others, were up to since the last time we checked.

Michael Bennet

Bennet met the polling criteria to participate in the first Democratic debate scheduled to take place later this month in Miami. He garnered 1 percent in a national CNN poll on Tuesday, which is the third qualifying poll (in which) he has reached 1 percent ...

In the aftermath of the deadly mass shooting in Virginia Beach, Bennet told ABC News' George Stephanopoulos on This Week that “I think the president can make a difference. The House of Representatives has passed background checks to close the internet loophole. This person bought the guns lawfully as we know. Every single fact pattern will be different. We should pass those background checks -- 90 percent of Americans support it.”

The Colorado senator spent the weekend campaigning in South Carolina , while many of his fellow 2020 rivals were at the California Democratic Convention.

Bennett remains a third-or fourth-tier neoliberal also-ran.

Cory Booker

The New Jersey senator unveiled a plan to make housing more affordable by offering a tax credit to people who spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent. According to researchers at Columbia University, the refundable renters’ credit would benefit more than 57 million people -- including 17 million children -- and lift 9.4 million Americans out of poverty.

Booker’s housing plan also includes measures to expand access to legal counsel for tenants facing eviction, reform restrictive zoning laws, build more affordable housing units and combat homelessness through funding grants.

At the California Democratic Convention over the weekend, Booker also addressed the issue of gun violence.

“We are seeing the normalization of mass murder in our country,” Booker said. “It is time that we come together and stand together and take the fight to the NRA and the corporate gun lobby like we have never seen before. We can lead that fight and we can win.”

The reveal of his celebrity girlfriend a few months ago did not get him enough attention, so he tried using his campaign staff's missing pup this week.

Booker, second- or perhaps third-tier, needs a good debate to demonstrate viability.

Pete Buttigieg 

During a MSNBC town hall on Monday, Buttigieg said he “would not have applied that pressure” for Sen. Al Franken to have resigned in 2017 over sexual harassment allegations without first learning more about the claims.

“I think it was his decision to make,” the South Bend Indiana mayor said. “But I think the way that we basically held him to a higher standard than the GOP does their people has been used against us.”

At the California Democratic Convention, Buttigieg leaned into his position as a Washington outsider and said the country needs “something completely different.”

“Why not a middle-class millennial mayor with a track record in the industrial Midwest? Why not a mayor at a time when we need Washington to look more like our best run cities and towns, not the other way around? And why not someone who represents a new generation of leadership?” the 37-year-old said.

Mayor Pete has a way of stating his case eloquently, as his fans know.  I do not think he will ever get enough African American support to rise much higher than he already has in this cycle, but he maintains first-tier, top five status, and as this piece from a couple of weeks ago suggests, there could another surge if he performs well at the first debate.  And I would expect him to do so.

Julián Castro 

The former Housing and Urban Development secretary unveiled a sweeping police reform plan Monday, aiming to prevent officer-involved shootings, increase transparency and end “police militarization.”

“Even though we have some great police officers out there, and I know that because I served as mayor of San Antonio, this is not a case of just a few bad apples,” Castro said on CNN. “The system is broken.”

Included in the proposal are restrictions on the use of deadly force, the increased adoption of technology such as body cameras, an end to stop-and-frisk tactics and expanded bias training.

I remain of the opinion that Castro's support is under-surveyed.  I believe he might be the long shot in the race that could best 'pop at a price', as they say at the track.  He has no competition for the Latinx vote in California or Texas, and this recent statistic could be determinative.

And while there are intense efforts at the federal and state level under way to suppress that vote, my feeling is, by and large, the wave cannot be stopped.

(Skipping DeBlasio and Delaney, despite the latter being booed at the CaDC and fruitlessly challenging AOC to a debate on Medicare for All.  A plea for attention that I, like the good New York Congresswoman, choose not to acknowledge.)

Tulsi Gabbard 

The Hawaii congresswoman reacted to the House passing the “DREAM and Promise Act” which would protect young undocumented immigrants and immigrants with temporary status who were once covered by the Obama-era DACA program. She said on Fox News, “The hyper-partisanship around this issue has gotten in the way of delivering a real solution. This legislation and finding a solution for these Dreamers is something that has had bipartisan support.”

Kirsten Gillibrand 

Gillibrand released a plan to legalize marijuana, which called for expunging all non-violent marijuana convictions. Gillibrand said that under her plan, tax revenue from recreational marijuana would be put “towards programs that help repair the damage done by the War on Drugs.”

The New York senator also participated in a town hall on Fox News, where she attacked the network for its coverage of abortion. Gillibrand was asked about her position on 'late-term abortion' and she began her response by reiterating her stand that “when it comes to women’s reproductive freedom, it should be a woman’s decision.” She then criticized Fox News for creating “a false narrative” on the issue.

Gillibrand was cut off by moderator Chris Wallace, who said, “Senator, I just want to say we’ve brought you here for an hour.”

Wallace continued, “We have treated you very fairly. I understand that, maybe, to make your credentials with the Democrats who are not appearing on Fox News, you want to attack us. I’m not sure it’s frankly very polite when we’ve invited you to be here.”

Gillibrand said that she would “do it in a polite way,” but she was interrupted by Wallace again who said “instead of talking about Fox News, why don’t you answer Susan’s question?” referring to the question asked by the member of the audience.

Still, Gillibrand attacked the network for their use of the word “infanticide”, calling it “illegal” and “not a fact.” She added, “I believe all of us have a responsibility to talk about the facts.”

It was a nice moment for a campaign and a candidate who has not had very many.

Kamala Harris 

Harris was rushed off the stage Saturday while speaking at the MoveOn #BigIdeas forum in San Francisco after an activist (climbed on stage) and grabbed the microphone out of her hand. Harris returned to the stage about a minute later to chants of “Ka-ma-la” from the audience.

An animal activist group claimed responsibility for the man rushing the stage. He was identified by the group as Aidan Cook. The group’s spokesperson, Matt Johnson, told ABC News that Cook was not detained or arrested; he was simply kicked out.

This was a tense moment, as there are for many of the Democrats working rope lines and meeting large crowds inside and outside.  There's not enough Secret Service at this juncture to go around and many campaigns can't afford private security.  Everyone is just hoping there won't be any incidents.

Beyond that, Senator Harris got a splash of cold water from the state capital newspaper's op-ed author.  Short excerpt:

Harris doesn’t have strong policy views like Elizabeth Warren. She doesn’t represent a more progressive generation of voters like South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. She doesn’t have the national standing of Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders.

So who is Kamala Harris besides a sparkling resume and stump speech? It’s not too early to expect an answer.

(Hickenlooper also got booed in California.  Enough said.)

Jay Inslee 

The Washington governor has been pushing hard for the DNC to dedicate one of its presidential primary debates to the topic of climate change. DNC spokeswoman, Xochitl Hinojosa, responded in a statement saying, “the DNC will not be holding entire debates on a single issue area because we want to make sure voters have the ability to hear from candidates on dozens of issues of importance to American voters.”

Inslee called the DNC’s decision to not host a climate debate “deeply disappointing.”

“The DNC is silencing the voices of Democratic activists, many of our progressive partner organizations, and nearly half of the Democratic presidential field, who want to debate the existential crisis of our time. Democratic voters say that climate change is their top issue; the Democratic National Committee must listen to the grassroots of the party,” Inslee’s campaign said in a press release.

The DNC also said that if any candidates participated in a separate debate on climate change, they would be barred from future DNC debates.


This could get interesting once Inslee eventually leaves the race, and the focus begins to turn to the most aggressive climate action plans, especially that of the original Green New Dealer, Howie Hawkins.  It would be wonderful for this blogger to see the kind of Green surge in this country that European nations recently saw in their elections.

(Amy Klobuchar and Seth Moulton were all but invisible last week.)

Beto O’Rourke 

O’Rourke released a voting rights plan which called for term limits for members of Congress and for Supreme Court justices. O’Rourke is calling for members of the House and Senate to serve for no more than 12 years, and for justices to be capped at one 18-year term. O’Rourke said that after a justice completes their term, they would be permitted to serve on the federal courts of appeals.

The former Texas congressman’s plan also includes measures to increase voter participation, including by making Election Day a federal holiday and by allowing automatic and same-day voter registration.

O'Rourke got good news and not-so-good news from a Quinnipiac poll of Texas voters made public earlier this week.

Trump is locked in too-close-to-call races with any one of seven top Democratic challengers in the 2020 presidential race in Texas ...


"The data shows home-state hopeful, former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, is doing OK in the presidential matchup, but Democratic voters would prefer he leave the presidential campaign and run for the U.S. Senate." [...]

Texas Democrats and Democratic leaners say 60 - 27 percent that O'Rourke should challenge Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the 2020 U.S. Senate race, rather than continue his campaign for president. Support for an O'Rourke Senate race is strong among very liberal, somewhat liberal and moderate/conservative Democrats.

Tim Ryan 

Ryan flipped his position on impeachment, this week, saying he believes Congress has to begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump. The Ohio congressman made his announcement during a CNN town hall, saying that Mueller’s statement last week made him support impeachment.

Bernie Sanders 

Sanders spoke at Walmart’s annual shareholders’ meeting on Wednesday, directly criticizing the company for paying its employees low wages and lobbying for a resolution that would give hourly workers representation on the company’s board of directors.

As many Democratic candidates spoke out on abortion rights this week, comments by Sanders in 1972 -- prior to the Roe v. Wade decision -- resurfaced via Newsweek. He told a Vermont newspaper at the time that it struck him as “incredible” that the male-dominated state legislature, and politicians in general, “think that they have the right to tell a woman what she can or cannot do with her body.”


This weekend, Sanders visits Iowa to speak at the Capital City Pride Candidate Forum in Des Moines, he will march with McDonald’s workers who are seeking higher wages and attend the Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame Celebration in Cedar Rapids, among several other events.

Bernie just keeps hitting one home run after the other.  Check out his TIME cover and story.

And in that moment Sanders became a little clearer to me: He isn’t the person you want sitting beside you on a long boat ride, passing time. He’s the person who will notice when you fall overboard and begin to drown.

-- Sanders Demands McConnell Allow Senate Vote to Raise 'Absurdly Low' Federal Minimum Wage to $15

Eric Swalwell

Swalwell talked about his assault weapon ban and buyback plan on ABC’s The View. He said that he’s the only candidate calling to “ban and buy back every single assault weapon in America.”

The California congressman also left the door open to drop out of the presidential race and run for re-election for his House seat. Swalwell said he is open to running for a fifth term in Congress, but said he wouldn’t make that decision until December.

Elizabeth Warren

Warren announced on Thursday that her campaign staff has unionized.

“My campaign has submitted their support to join IBEW 2320,” Warren tweeted. Her campaign joins a growing number of others that are showing support for unions and unionizing themselves. The Sanders and Castro campaigns have also unionized and the Swalwell campaign had previously said they were unionizing.

But Warren choked on the heritage question again.


It's still her Achilles' heel.  I would have thought she'd have come up with a better answer by now.  I don't think I can bear to hear Trump chanting "Pocahontas" for a year, but that would be the least of several reasons I would have difficulty voting for Liz (with the presumption of a Green option on my 2020 ballot).

-- Elizabeth Warren Has Yet to Apologize for Her Pro-Charter School History

Andrew Yang

During Pride Month, Yang tied his signature universal basic income proposal to the LGBTQ community, noting in a BuzzFeed interview that he’s heard from many people who say they’ve been kicked out of housing and fired from jobs over their sexual orientation. He said it is his plan to give all American adults $1,000 per month, which could help them “adjust if they’re economically singled out.”

Yang will be among the speakers at the Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame Celebration in Cedar Rapids on Sunday.

I continue to operate under the impression that Yang is of the Demo-Libertarian wing of the Democratic Party.  Speaking of the Libs ...

Lincoln Chafee, the former senator and governor of Rhode Island (and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate), has joined the Libertarian Party.

First reported by the Boston Globe, Chafee has reportedly made a move from Rhode Island to Wyoming and registered Libertarian in the process. When asked about whether he would run for some office in the future under the Libertarian Party label, Chafee was non-committal.

Chafee was first elected to office as the mayor of Warwick in 1992, a town of about 85,000 people in Rhode Island. He would go on to serve as a Republican senator, independent governor, and ran for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. One notable vote Chafee made as a Senator was against the bill authorizing the use of force in Iraq.

The timing of Chafee’s switch has not gone unnoticed by major media outlets, as some are speculating whether he is planning a run for president as a Libertarian. Such a move by a former major party elected official is not unprecedented. Bob Barr, a former representative, did so in 2008 and Gary Johnson, a former governor, did so in 2012 and 2016. Mike Gravel, a former Democratic senator like Chaffee attempted to do so in 2008 but Barr ultimately won the nomination that year.

Also, GOP challengers to Trump are down to just one.

Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is no longer considering running against President Trump in the 2020 presidential election, the Washington Post reports.

Only one Republican has formally announced a challenge to Trump: former Gov. Bill Weld (R-Mass.), and only one other Republican -- Nebraskan senator Ben Sasse -- is weighing a possible 2020 run.

The US Green Party will hold its national meeting in July.


When: Thursday, July 25, to Sunday, July 28, 2019
Where: Salem State University Central Campus, 352 Lafayette Street, Salem, MA 01970
Meeting Details: Website | Directions | Draft Schedule

Media events at the Green Party’s 2019 Annual National Meeting in Salem will include three press conferences with meeting organizers and candidates, and a forum for candidates seeking the 2020 Green Party presidential nomination.

Many of the meeting events are open to the media and general public. A credentialing page for reporters, bloggers, and other members of the media interested in covering the events, including press conferences, will be posted online.

The meeting will feature Green Party panels, workshops, meetings of the Green National Committee (not open to the media and public), and other events. Green candidates running in 2019 and 2020 and Green elected officials are expected to attend.

Schedule of Press Events

Thursday, July 25, 4:00 p.m. Press Conference about the Green Party’s 2019 Annual National Meeting with party officials and meeting organizers and introduction of Green-Rainbow Party of Massachusetts candidates.

Friday, July 26, 9:00 a.m. Press Conference with Green Party statewide candidates. (participants TBA)
Friday, July 26, 10:00 a.m. Press Conference with Green Party federal candidates. (participants TBA)
Friday, July 26, 6:30 p.m. – 8:30 p.m. Presidential Candidates Forum
Saturday, July 27, 7:30 p.m. – 10:30 p.m.
Fundraising Event emceed by standup comic Lee Camp – head writer and host of the national TV show Redacted Tonight, and web series “Moment of Clarity.” (George Carlin’s daughter Kelly said he’s one of the few comics keeping her father’s torch lit.)

-- How Do Greens Run For President In An “Anybody But Trump” Election Year?

See you next week!
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Friday, March 09, 2018

Your new Texas Congressional delegation (part 2)

(Note: Part 1, with profiles of Congressional District races 1 through 7, is here.  Two updates to the "statewides" post have been made pending developments in those contests since Wednesday.  And  the special election to replace my city councilman (RIP) has been called by Mayor Turner for May 5.  That's less than sixty days away.  While two state reps have already declared they intend to be the next state senator from the East Side (replacing the pending CongressLatina for CD-29, see below), I hear of no candidates for District K yet.  Perhaps out of respect they are waiting until services for CM Green, scheduled for Sunday, are past.)

CD-8: Incumbent Republican and House Ways and Means chairman Kevin Brady versus sacrificial lamb Steven David in November.

CD-9: Al Green has no GOP challenger in the fall.

CD-10: Michael McCaul, House Homeland Security chairman, will face either Tawana Cadien for the fourth consecutive time or, more likely, Mike Siegel, who got 40% in a seven-way Democratic primary.  Since Cadien lost in 2016, 2014, and 2012 -- topping out at 38% two years ago -- this district's badly gerrymandered Democrats, scattered between northwest Houston and southeast/north Austin, might want to try something different.  The definition of insanity being what it is.

CD-11: Michael Conaway (R) against Jennie Lou Leeder.  Nothing to see here.

CD-12: Kay Granger versus Vanessa Adia, a teacher who supports Medicare for All.  It's a damn shame this district is mostly Tarrant County; Democratic voters there just rejected a progressive, Allison Campolo, in favor of conservaDem Beverly Powell to face off against SD-10 Republican incumbent Konni "Out LGBT School Children to their Parents" Burton.  The D primary vote was 62-38 in favor of the Wendy Davis-endorsed Powell.  What few Democrats there are on the west side of the Metroplex -- this summer's TDP convention is going to be held in Fort Worth -- are as far to the right as Democrats can be without being Republicans.  And Tarrant County Republicans are already about as bad as can be.


I'd like to be more hopeful for Adia, the kind of candidate who deserves support from Democrats.

CD-13: Mac Thornberry (R, incumbent) against D Greg Sagan.  Sigh.

CD-14: Progressive darling Adrienne Bell is taking on dirtbag incumbent Randy Weber in Southeast Texas, the coastal district that runs from Freeport to Beaumont.  Maybe Harvey crushing the residents here, along with Weber's feeble response associated with the disaster, can impact this race.  Weber has whined and tried to blame others for Trump's FEMA dragging their feet over the last six months.

... Weber is one of eight Texas GOP congressmen who voted against providing much-needed aid to New York and New Jersey after Superstorm Sandy -- a group now being dubbed the "Comeuppance Caucus."

Bell needs more of Weber's incompetence and another miracle or two to pull off the upset.

CD-15: Rookie incumbent D Vicente Gonzalez draws R challenger Tim Westley for the second time in this South Texas (straight south, from the San Antonio eastern suburbs and exurbs all the way to Edinburg on the border).  Westley got under 38% two  years ago riding Trump's threadbare coattails; don't expect him to perform any better this time around.

CD-16:  Veronica Escobar will join Sylvia Garcia as the state's first two Latina Congresswomen, a story both overtold and a circumstance long overdue.  She will defeat her R opponent Rick Seeburger and replace Robert "Beto" O'Rourke in Congress.  I expect her to vote more progressively than the man currently in that seat.

CD-17: Bill Flores, R incumbent, over a token D challenger, Rick Kennedy.

CD-18: Sheila Jackson Lee will return to Washington after beating R Ava Reynero Pate.

 CD-19: Jodey Arrington, also a Republican first-term incumbent, is unlikely to lose to D Miguel Levario in this West Texas district that includes Abilene, Big Spring, Lubbock, Plainview, and points further west and in-between.

CD-20: Congressman Joaquin Castro will be unopposed in the fall.

CD-21: In one of the more closely-watched races in the the state, a minor upset sent progressive favorite Derrick Crowe to the sidelines when his 23% of the primary vote was only good for third place.  Establishment Dem Joseph Kopser and surprise vote leader Mary Street Wilson go to the May runoff.  The Texas Observer, with the graphic and the story.

Mary Wilson, a former math teacher running for Congressional District 21, raised a measly $40,000 over the last year. She had a handful of profiles in Science magazine, Dame, and KUT. In comparison, Joseph Kopser raised about $770,000, received a slew of endorsements and a ton of press coverage. Derrick Crowe, a former Nancy Pelosi staffer, and Elliott McFadden, the former Travis County executive director, also raised far more than Wilson and received endorsements from prominent groups.

Still, Wilson is the one headed to a runoff with Kopser. In fact, she received almost 1,000 more votes than Kopser.

The winner will face either Chip Roy, a former COS to "Carnival" Cruz, or Matt McCall, who challenged retiring incumbent Lamar Smith twice, in 2014 and 2016.   It's worth noting that Roy doesn't live in the district.  That didn't slow him down much; he posted a ten-point advantage over McCall on Tuesday.  Whichever GOPer prevails in May will be favored in November.

CD-22: Fort Bend/Sugar Land Republican incumbent Pete Olson waits for his Democratic opponent in the fall, one of Sri Preston Kulkarni or Letitia Plummer.  Steve Brown, former county chair and the Texas Democrats' Railroad Commission nominee in 2014 and the 2016 HD-27 nominee (sadly, he couldn't beat the unbelievably corrupt Ron Reynolds) finished third by less than 1000 votes.  Might be time for a line of work outside politics, Steve.

Fort Bend County, the nation's most diverse, is very slowly turning purple, but like the rest of Texas, still lags GOP turnout.  This is the kind of suburban battleground Democrats must win in 2018 if there's going to be any blue wave to speak of.

CD-23: The only swing district in the state until Democrats got enthused following Hillary Clinton's strong showing in CD-7 and CD-32 in 2016.  Will Hurd defeated Pete Gallego twice in the past four years, both times with less than 50% of the vote.  (Gallego won 50-45 in 2012 over incumbent Quico Canseco.)  This time there are two progressive Democrats who will battle in the summer runoff to face Hurd in the fall: Gina Ortiz Jones and Rick Treviño.  Either candidate should be marginally favored to take the seat away from the GOP.  Democrats turned out over 44,000 voters in the sprawling Big Bend district while Republicans managed just under 31K.

Update: This article delves into some detail about Ortiz Jones' military intelligence experience.  It will be 'spy vs. spy' if Ortiz Jones makes it to the general against Hurd, himself a former CIA agent.

CD-24: R Incumbent Kenny Marchant will be heavily favored to beat D Jan McDowell.

CD-25: Progressive Ds Chris Perri and Julie Oliver will run off to face incumbent Roger Williams.  Hill Country Democrats, as with their counterparts in CD-23 above, rejected the centrist establishment candidates in their primary.  This makes me hopeful, but the real test will be how things go for the May winner in November.  The seat is rated 'safe' or 'solid' for Republicans.

CD-26: The Berniecrat, Linsey Fagan, eked out a win over the Clintonite, Will Fisher, 53-47 in this North Texas seat held by incumbent quack Dr. Michael Burgess.  Rs outvoted Ds in their respective primaries 55K to 16K.

CD-27: Both parties will hold runoff elections to nominate a standard-bearer to replace Blake "Animal House" Farenthold in this south-Austin-to-Victoria-and-Corpus district.  The Dems have Raul Roy Barrera, who was beaten by Farenthold 62-38 in 2016, and Eric Holguin; the Repubs, Bech Bruun and Michael Cloud.  The two Democrats boast good positions on healthcare; there isn't much I could find that would tell me about whether these Republicans were freaks or something less so.  This report from the Caller Times told me nothing; this report from KRIS-TV was helpful with regard to all of the carpetbaggers who were in the race and has links to all candidates, pre-election day.  The district has a  Cook PVI R +13 rating.

CD-28: Henry Cuellar, the shittiest Blue Dog Democrat in all of Congress (with regular appearances on Fox News, including recently defending the NRA) had no primary opponent and has no general election Republican challenger.  This is disgraceful.

CD-29:  Much already said, written, and videotaped about Sylvia Garcia, having outhustled her moneybags challenger Tahir Javed, the other Garcias, and my pick, Hector Morales, to go on to Congress after she vanquishes her Republican challenger, either Phillip Aronoff or Carmen Maria Monteil.  The scrum has already begun to replace her in the Texas Senate.

CD-30: Eddie Bernice Johnson will go back to DC for her fourteenth term in the US House after winning her primary.  She faces no R challenger.

CD-31: MJ Hegar and Christine Mann will battle each other in May for the right to move on to face Republican John Carter in November.  Both women are solid, but Mann has the progressive bonafides.  The district is safe for the eight-term incumbent to make it nine.

Update: Read this piece in the Greanville Post about "CIA Democrats", which includes brief profiles of Hegar (above) and Ed Meier (next).

CD-32: Pete Sessions was re-elected in 2016 by a 71-18 margin over a Libertarian (no Democrat entered the race that year; the Green and my friend, Gary Stuard, got 10%), but because Hilary Clinton carried it by 2 points, 49-47, it's considered a pick-up opportunity.  Accordingly, seven Democrats bid for the nom, and former NFL player Colin Allred (39%) and progressive champion Lillian Salerno (18%) emerged from Tuesday's primary as the top two.  Neither raised very much money in defeating better financially-supported centrists and establishment candidates with higher name recognition, like Dallas TV broadcaster Brent Shipp and Ed Meier, the former Hillary Clinton transition team co-chair (LOL).  The district is R+5, and the Dallas-region Ds turned out 40,000 voters on their side of the primary, while the Rs managed just a little more, at 41.3K.

l. to r.: Allred, Meier, Salerno, Shipp

Allred's popularity may be enough to get him to November, and Sessions might be in big trouble.

CD-33: D incumbent Marc Veazey easily won his primary and will probably do the same in the general election over R Willie Billups.

CD-34: Incumbent Filemon Vela was unopposed in the D primary, as was his R challenger, Rey Gonzalez.  I would not expect to see this seat flip.

CD-35: Longtime Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett, with no primary opponent, will face -- and defeat -- Republican David Smalling.

CD-36:  Rock Goddess Dayna Steele moves on to November in a match with the Republican incumbent, Woodville dentist Brian Babin, for this Houston suburbs/East Texas seat.  The district scores R+26, but Steele's celebrity status and Babin's complete lack of visibility and charisma could put it in play.  Babin was trapped in his house during Harvey.  Even my 94-year-old mother was able to evacuate ahead of the storm, alone, which ultimately flooded and destroyed her home.  I have long gotten the distinct impression that Babin is one of the more inept Republicans in the Texas delegation.  I certainly hope the voters of the 36th -- not known for their intelligence, since they sent Steve Stockman back to Congress before he flamed out a second time in a swirl of corruption -- can see fit to elect a voice of reason this go-around.

Moving on to Austin representatives and Harris County races this weekend.
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Monday, July 10, 2017

Got any Democrats in mind for governor in 2018?

Because it sure doesn't seem like the Texas Democratic Party does.  The most recent post on the topic that Google returns for me (if you don't count the Castros' turndowns in May) is dated February 9 of this year -- five months ago -- and is a bit of rumor and off-the-record chat collected by the TexTrib about a private meeting at the end of the previous month.


In late January, a high-profile forum for candidates vying to be the next Democratic National Committee chair brought hordes of Democrats to Houston ready to plot the party’s national future. But for Texans in the party, the more consequential meeting may have occurred the day before in Austin.

A tight-knit group of Texas Democratic leaders traveled to the state capital that day to begin preliminary conversations about the 2018 midterm races.

According to over a dozen interviews with Texas Democratic insiders and national Democrats with ties to the state, the meeting included some of the party's most well-known figures from Texas including former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro, his twin brother, U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio, Texas Democratic Party Finance Chairman Mike Collier, former state Sen. Wendy Davis, state Democratic Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso, former Houston Mayor Annise Parker and state Reps. Rafael Anchia of Dallas and Chris Turner of Grand Prairie.
Their main agenda: mapping out a strategy for the 2018 midterm elections.

You should already know what Collier and O'Rourke have decided to do.  It's highly doubtful Davis (who lives in Austin now) will make another bid for the Mansion, and Anchia and Turner have 'special session' on the brain.  Parker wants to run for Harris County Judge, but not if Ed Emmett is still there, and he's still going to be there in 2018.  Of these, perhaps Turner or Anchia will be so frustrated after the special and Abbott's heavy hand that they'll throw their hat in.  Some things haven't changed in the last six months, however.

The expectations in the room were not soaring but were cautiously hopeful. That optimism was mostly rooted around one person: President Donald Trump.

Uh huh.  Maybe Cliff Walker can find Betsy Johnson, clean off her combat boots, and keep the Greens from getting to 5% again.  (The GP already has to petition for ballot access next year, thanks to the two afore-mentioned in 2016.)  In similar vein, the two most vulnerable statewide Republican incumbents have also drawn no challengers to this point.

Party insiders are also coveting two other statewide offices: attorney general and agriculture commissioner. The two Republican incumbents, Ken Paxton and Sid Miller, respectively, have faced a series of political struggles that could complicate their re-election campaigns.

So here's my prediction: as in 2006, there will be a few populist figures with little to no experience in elective office step up; the party won't find any money or other support for them, and ... you can probably guess what will happen.  Then in December of 2018, as all eyes turn to the presidential tilt in two years, the chairman of the TDP will stand up at a meeting of the SDEC and say, "It was a tough year; we focused on a few targeted races".

The House Democratic campaign arm recently announced it was eyeing three GOP-held congressional districts: U.S. Rep. John Culberson's 7th District, U.S. Rep. Will Hurd's 23rd District and U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions' 32nd District. Only the appearance of Hurd's district on the list was unexpected.

Democrats did not spend money in either Culberson's or Sessions' districts in recent cycles, but presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's performance there in 2016 encouraged the party to take a second look.

Yeah, they're swarming into the primaries against Culberson and Sessions.  The money race is already being reported, and thank Jeebus James Cargas isn't winning that, either.

As for the statewide races?  I've seen this all before, and so have you.
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Friday, May 10, 2019

The Weekly Twenty Twenty Update

"Electability" is an establishment construct.

The concept of electability was on some candidates’ minds this week as they considered the potential of the eventual Democratic presidential nominee to win the general election, especially in Midwestern states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin ...

But in an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted at the end of April, the preference for a candidate who matched the respondent’s views was nearly equal to preference for a nominee who could beat Trump.

Several hopefuls also spoke out this week to argue that it should not be assumed that moderate blue-collar Midwestern voters prefer a white, male candidate or even that they’re all moderate and blue collar themselves.

The establishment is Biden.


Anyone the Democrats nominate ought to be able to defeat Trump.  Hillary Clinton should have defeated Trump in a rout.  On the one hand, it's patently ridiculous for me to imagine that the Democrats could nominate someone with the most remote chance of losing to President Shitler.

On the other ...


Salon: Are centrist candidates really the most electable? It may be the opposite

Let's roll.

Michael Bennet

Bennet hit the ground running in the first week after his May 2 announcement of his 2020 presidential bid. Bennet, the 21st Democratic candidate to join the race, was in Iowa talking about the cost of education.

“Getting to free college for everybody is not a very progressive way to approach this because a lot of wealthy kids will benefit from that, but let’s see if we can get you out debt free,” Bennet told a voter, without offering any specifics.

Bennet also appeared on NBC’s Meet the Press Sunday to respond to criticism of his voting record. The senator from Colorado had previously been given an 'F' rating from progressive super PAC Demand Justice for helping to advance Trump’s judicial nominees and specifically for voting against filibustering the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch.

What, really, is the point of this man's campaign?  He's entering too late to gain a podium for the first debate (IMO).  His well-right-of-center positioning is a crowded lane.  He's not the biggest joke in the running but he's tied for second with about ten others.


Joe Biden

The former vice president received pushback from Sen. Bernie Sanders in response to a claim Biden made in March that he has “the most progressive record of anyone running.”

“I think if you look at Joe’s record and you look at my record, I don’t think there’s much question about who’s more progressive,” Sanders told ABC's Jonathan Karl in an interview from Des Moines, Iowa, that aired on This Week last Sunday. Sanders’ refutation was part of a trend of 2020 candidates defining themselves in relation to Biden.

Biden also stopped in Columbia, South Carolina Saturday to speak with African American voters and attended a private fundraiser on Saturday evening at the home of his longtime adviser Dick Harpootlian, an attorney and former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman. On Wednesday, a health care union in California held a protest at a fundraiser for Biden at the home of a board member for Kaiser Permanente in Los Angeles.

A small group of members from the National Union of Healthcare Workers -- which represents 3,500 mental health clinicians who work for Kaiser Permanente in California -- stood outside the home of Cynthia Telles, a member of the Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and Kaiser Foundation Health Plan boards of directors, to protest long wait times for patients to receive follow-up care and fight inequities between mental health care and medical health care with Kaiser Permanente.

Union president Sal Rosselli (said) that his members hope Biden, who has been an advocate for mental health care, would support the union’s position. Biden did not address the protests during his remarks at the fundraiser and the Biden campaign declined to comment to ABC News for a story.

Biden's raising money the old-fashioned way, relying on Hillary's money train, which belonged to Obama.  No mention of the words "swamp" or "drain" yet.  And again, this doesn't appear to be impacting Uncle Joe's polling yet.  Although methodology is an important consideration (pgs. 21, 22 at bottom) when assessing these polls and their relative value.

The poll spotlighted a generational divide, with Sanders leading among those 49 and younger, and Biden on top with voters 50 and older. The survey also pointed to a partisan split, with Democrats giving Biden a six point advantage, and Sanders holding a nearly two-to-one margin among independents likely to vote in the Democratic primary. New Hampshire is one of two dozen states across the county where independent voters can cast a ballot in either the Democratic or Republican primaries.

Vox's Ella Nilsen is of the opinion that New Hampshire will make or break Bernie (and Elizabeth Warren, and maybe even Biden).

Political Wire: be skeptical of Biden's surge


Cory Booker

Booker introduced what his campaign team called “the most sweeping gun violence prevention proposal ever advanced by a presidential candidate.” Booker supporters were notified Monday in an email titled: “I’m sick and tired of thoughts and prayers.”
His plan focuses on pressuring gun manufacturers to comply with new regulations and imposing rigorous oversight over their products. The senator has previously vowed to “bring a fight to the NRA like they have never ever seen before.”

In an interview with ABC’s Nightline, Booker reflected on the violence in Newark, a city he led for over seven years as mayor.

Booker told co-anchor Byron Pitts. “I’m tired of walking around cities like mine that have shrines of teddy bears and dead kids. Teddy bears and candles and places where the murders happen.”

Pete Buttigieg

On Sunday, Buttigieg and his husband, Chasten, joined former President Jimmy Carter’s Sunday school class in rural south Georgia, according to the Associated Press. Carter said he knew Buttigieg from working on a Habitat for Humanity project in Indiana where the mayor volunteered.
On Friday night Buttigieg was heckled by protesters at (the Dallas County Democratic Party's Johnson-Jordan fundraising dinner).  Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, was interrupted on several occasions by anti-gay remarks. Protesters yelled, “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” and “Repent,” according to a CNN reporter in the audience.

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who is also running for president, came to Buttigieg’s defense on Twitter. O’Rourke wrote: “Texans don’t stand for this kind of homophobia and hatred. Mayor Pete, we are grateful you came to Texas and hope to see you and Chasten back again soon.”

Julián Castro

Last Friday, Castro’s campaign announced it met the 65,000 donor threshold to earn the former Housing and Urban Development secretary a spot in the first presidential debate.
In an interview with PBS Newshour, Castro expressed confidence that his campaign “will steadily but surely get stronger and stronger,” despite polling that currently shows him in the back of the field.

He further proclaimed that he would remain in the race, at least until the Iowa caucuses next February, pushing back against the idea of stepping out of the race should his support remain stagnant.

John Delaney

Delaney was sharply critical of some of the major proposals being debated on the campaign trail, including the Green New Deal and Medicare for all, in a radio interview earlier this week, labeling them “half-baked socialist policies.”

“I’m just going to point outL their policies are bad policies,” the former Maryland congressman said in the interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.  [Emphasis mine.-PD]  “Medicare for all, in terms of the bill that’s been introduced in the Senate, is fundamentally bad health care policy. Putting aside we have no way of paying for it, even if we were able to pay for it, it still would be bad policy.”

Delaney laid out his alternative, a public health care option, in a PBS Newshour interview, arguing that Americans want to be given choices rather than be limited to one plan.

Thank you.  Next.


Tulsi Gabbard

In a fundraising email to supporters, Gabbard attacked the media, claiming that reporters were ignoring her campaign because she is “taking on … the corporate media and the military industrial complex who drive us into war for their own power and profit.”

The congresswoman from Hawaii outlined her platform in a nearly 30-minute-long interview with The Intercept on Thursday. She also talked about her decision to run for president after endorsing Sanders in 2016, her isolationist foreign policy views and her opinion that it’s time for the Democratic Party to move on from the Mueller report and focus on issues.

Some candidates get more than a fair shake in the corporate media, and some don't.


Kirsten Gillibrand

The senator from New York pledged Tuesday that, as president, she would only nominate judges who would uphold Roe v. Wade. Gillibrand acknowledged that it was unusual for presidential candidates to set such a litmus test, but argued that such a stance was necessary after “Mitch McConnell obstructed the nomination process and stole a Supreme Court seat.”
“I believe that reproductive rights are human rights, and they are nonnegotiable,” Gillibrand wrote in a Medium post. “Women in America must be trusted to make their own medical decisions and have access to the full range of reproductive health care, including abortion.”

This weekend, Gillibrand travels to New Hampshire for six stops from Friday through Saturday, including at New England College, where she will deliver a commencement address.

Gillibrand spoke in Houston last weekend (as advanced in last Friday's Update).


Kamala Harris

The New York Times reported Wednesday that Harris is reworking her campaign strategy to focus more on Trump, particularly after her aggressive questioning of Attorney General William Barr during last week’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing earned her praise.
And during a trip to Michigan last weekend, the senator from California took on the idea of “electability” -- a concept other female candidates have had to navigate as they seek higher office.

She took a direct jab at the idea of her chances to move into the White House at the NAACP Freedom Fund Dinner in Detroit on Sunday, the largest NAACP chapter in the country.

“There has been a lot of conversation by pundits, about electability. And who can speak to the Midwest? But when they say that, they usually put the Midwest in a simplistic box and a narrow narrative. And too often their definition of the Midwest leaves people out. It leaves out people in this room who helped build cities like Detroit,” Harris said.

I strongly encourage you to read the various takes Twitter has for you on this topic.


John Hickenlooper

Hickenlooper authored a Wall Street Journal op-ed Sunday titled “I’m running to save capitalism,” in which he explains his belief that while income inequality has led many Democrats to support socialist ideas, “capitalism is the only economic system that can support a strong middle class, a growing economy, and innovative entrepreneurs leading global technological advancements.”
The former Colorado governor concedes however that “the government has to adjust (capitalism),” making it easier for Americans to access higher education, raise wages and strengthen anti-trust laws.

I can't say this loud enough: Fuck this guy and the horse named Howard Schultz he rode in on.


Jay Inslee

The Washington governor unveiled what he called the”100% Clean Energy for America Plan,” which calls for clean energy standards with regard to electricity, new vehicles and building construction.
In conjunction with the plan -- which would begin on the first day of his presidency and attempt to achieve renewable, zero-emission energy by 2035 -- Inslee told ABC News that he is interested in retraining workers, such as coal miners, who currently labor in positions that would be affected by the plan, to work in new, clean-energy jobs.

Amy Klobuchar

Klobuchar rolled out a $100 billion proposal last Friday to fight drug and alcohol addiction and improve mental health care. In a statement announcing the initiative, the Minnesota senator tied it to her father’s alcoholism and subsequent treatment, saying that she feels “everyone should have the same opportunity my dad had … (to get the) help they need.”
The plan’s foundation includes prevention, early intervention and treatment initiatives, as well as justice reforms that would de-prioritize jail sentences for non-violent drug crimes and economic and housing opportunities to support recovery.

Completely unnoticed by most media was Klobuchar's Fox News town hall this past Wednesday.

It's worth noting that Pete Buttigieg is scheduled to appear at his own Fox town hall on May 19, and Kirsten Gillibrand on June 2.


Beto O’Rourke

On Monday, the former Texas congressman spoke at the United Steel Workers Local 310 as part of a five-day trip across Iowa, according to the Des Moines Register. A union pipefitter asked O’Rourke if he would commit to a federal law that would give unions the power to collect money from non-union members for collective bargaining.
“Everyone needs to pay into the benefits that they gain as a result of those who are willing to organize and fight,” O’Rourke responded.

On Wednesday, Sasha Watson, a writer who dated O’Rourke when she was in college, penned a story for the Washington Post Magazine about watching his rise to fame.

Watching him run for Senate, she wrote, “I was no longer one of a small group of friends who watched him at a distance, but a member of the public, and I followed his campaign along with tens of thousands of people.”

Tim Ryan

In an interview with CNN last weekend, Ryan criticized Biden for saying China was “not competition,” calling the statement “stunningly out-of-touch.” The Ohio congressman elaborated by noting that China was “putting billions of dollars” behind construction in the South China Sea and investment in the solar industry.

Bernie Sanders

The senator from Vermont debuted an agriculture and rural investment plan in Iowa on Sunday which includes sweeping reforms to break up agribusiness conglomerates, establish a 'right to repair' law for farm equipment and redirect subsidies to prevent their disproportionate distribution to large producers as opposed to small farmers, among other proposals.
Sanders campaign staffers ratified a union contract with leadership this week, the first of its kind in presidential campaign history. Included in the contract are provisions that require the campaign to pay health insurance premiums for low-salaried employees and a pay ceiling for senior officials.

On Thursday, together with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., Sanders proposed legislation to cap credit card interest rates at 15% and establish basic banking services at post offices.

Another very strong week for Bernie.


Eric Swalwell

Swalwell would not commit to supporting Trump’s impeachment during an interview on CBS’ Face the Nation Sunday, but said the president should face “consequences,” comparing the situation to one with his children.
“We have to start taking this president seriously and speaking the only language they know, which is force and consequence,” Swalwell said on the show Sunday. “I’m a father of a 2-year-old and a 6-month-old. We’re going through the terrible twos. When my son misbehaves, we take a toy away.”

Too mealy-mouthed for the Democratic "BeatTrump" caucus.  Booker is beginning to steal Swalwell's gun-sense thunder also.


Elizabeth Warren

Warren appears on the cover of TIME this week and the accompanying profile directs a spotlight on her policy-heavy campaign.
On Wednesday, Warren released a $100 billion plan to combat opioid addiction over 10 years. Friday, Warren is scheduled to visit West Virginia, the state with the highest level of opioid-related deaths in the nation, and a state that voted for Trump in 2016. The senator will visit the town of Kermit, where in 2016 the Charleston Gazette-Mail revealed the trail of nearly 9 million opioid pills shipped to a single pharmacy in the town.

On the Senate floor Wednesday, the senator from Massachusetts read portions of the Mueller report and continued to call for Trump’s impeachment, explaining to Politico that, in the wake of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s 'case closed' pronouncement, she “felt a responsibility to go to the floor to say: 'Case not closed, buddy.'”

Warren is also continuing to build on her solid momentum.


Andrew Yang

The Des Moines Register reported Tuesday that Yang did not disclose on his campaign finance reports his monthly gifts of $1,000 to a New Hampshire family to demonstrate his proposed universal basic income plan. A spokesperson for Yang’s campaign said that their first quarter report would be updated.
Next week, Yang will hold a rally in New York City’s Washington Square Park, for which his campaign claims over 5,000 people have already RSVP’d.

Marianne Williamson


The Week: There are officially too many Democrats for the debate stage

Politico: Desperate drive to make the debate stage shakes Dem campaigns

Think Progress: The big-name Democrats in danger of being left off the 2020 debate stage

Political Wire: DNC sets tiebreakers for debates
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Monday, November 22, 2021

Remembering JFK Wrangle


On the 58th year marking the loss of the nation's 35th president, let's tip our hats in the general direction of conspiracy theorists everywhere for altering the minds of Americans for the worse.


Follow both threads for historical -- and entertaining -- reading.  Oliver Stone wants the assassination history's archives opened (they were supposed to be last year).


Okay then; on to the present.  A new goobernatorial poll dropped yesterday.


I don't think Wooderson is going to make a go of it, but I said the same about Beto, so there you go.  Speaking of repeating myself, it's 2006 all over again if he does.  You decide if McConaghey will be playing Kinky or Grandma.  This post will be long enough without opining more about this race today, so I'll save most of the rest for later.


Same old same old.  Another point, via Hector Mendez:

“There is no real long-term investment in cultivating generations of voters because it takes time and money,” Navarro said. “It isn’t enough to just simply register voters and expect them to vote Democrat.”

This is the reason why polling separates registered voters from likely voters.  All of this makes Kuffner's parlor musing a running joke.  It's also why one of the country's A+ pollsters wants to (listen) get out (read) of the game/charade.

Of course that would make people like political consultants mostly obsolete, and if we could do that, Gawd forbid, we might even be able to ban corporate money in elections.  Perish the thought.  Maybe we could start by outlawing Congress critters from trading in the stock market.  Is that too much also?

Alas, we won't have EBJ to kick around any more.  Her announcement on Saturday, with "Re-Elect" in the graphic, was a head fake.


Read down Svitek's other thread for a few of the would-be replacements.  He fails to mention the progressive Democrat who's been in the race for several months, Jessica Mason.  Typical.

The criminal and social justice headlines, after a weekend of national news that was as tragic as one could imagine.


Invoking budget authority when the Lege is not in session, Greg Abbott et. al. took $4 million allocated to the state's prisons and gave it to the Texas secretary of state for county "election integrity" audits, as mandated by state law (SB1).  Trump has been whining about an audit of 2020, and belittled the 4-county audit which the SoS announced on September 23 as 'weak.'


Still with me?  Thank you.  Let's do some environmental news.


I've seen that look on Mayor Sylvester Turner's face before.  It's his "Gosh that's terrible, I wish there was something I could do" face.


It's a good thing that Beto and others plan on running next year on keeping the lights on.  That's an issue they can win on, especially if there's another hard freeze.


More politics in the next Wrangle, before Turkey Day.  The soothers:

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