The sum of conservative logic on healthcare

More on White and the battle for governor

Still digesting yesterday's news and reading the tea leaves and (insert your own favorite cliche'). For now I'll excerpt what I find and emphasize the most interesting. First, this HouChron story doesn't tell us much new beyond sandwiches served at Sunday afternoon's meeting between Tom Schieffer and Bill White.

Several sources close to White said the decision to switch races was made at the Sunday meeting with Schieffer and his adviser, Lyndon Olson, who was a Clinton administration ambassador to Sweden. Houston lawyer Scott Atlas also was at the meeting. White insisted he still is in the listening stage.

“Right now, people want folks who are competent and shoot straight, don't engage in cronyism and get things done,” he said. “I've had a lot of people bending my ear about what I ought to do next, and I ought to listen to them.”

More on Scott Atlas if you need to know it. Harvey Kronberg has more of the juicy grist (is that an oxymoron?) in this from QR:

In the words of Democratic advisor Harold Cook, “You better get your popcorn and go to the bathroom 'cuz you don’t want to miss a minute of this.” ...

In a first sort-through, the big damage may well be to Kay Bailey Hutchison. While we never expected big Democratic crossover vote into the Republican March primary, an effort to stop Farouk Shami and Kinky Friedman with an “A” team candidate becomes more important. (No disrespect to Hank Gilbert who has run a very active, issue oriented campaign)

An exciting Democratic primary cannot be good for the Republican gubernatorial challenger.

Harvey's spot on here. I'll go further, however: there's not a lot of difference between Hutchison and White once you take the party label off. Establishment, conservative, calm, even bland. The rumors you heard months ago about her funneling clues to him about her plans suggests that the two have something more than just shared Houston governmental policy interests. Before I digress ...

On the other hand, Governor Perry’s life just got a little more complicated. Even Hutchison supporters acknowledge that he has driven the narrative of the campaign and out-maneuvered his challenger at every turn. Hutchison went from twenty points (up) at the end of last year to 12 down in recent polls. Although the primary is still a hundred days away, the betting line has been consistently swinging toward the incumbent.

More on that from this anonymous blogging GOP consultant (via Kuffner)...

White seems to be the best shot at the governor’s mansion, and that’s trouble for Rick Perry’s campaign. Slipping by with 39% of the vote in 2006, Perry will fare poorly in a head-to-head with White. Moderates in Houston will mostly back White, who is widely popular there. The trick for White will be spreading the Houston support throughout the rest of the state.

On the R’s side, primary voters will be faced with a pretty clear choice: nominate a candidate (Perry) who will struggle to beat a widely popular Houston mayor, or a candidate (Hutchison) whose statewide popularity is unmatched in recent Texas political history. No matter what happens, Perry will have to shift to the center. He’s been driving hard right for a long time, though… it’s possible that he may never be able to win over moderates at this point.

Back to Harvey:

Bill White in the primary and the general undercuts one of the anchors upon which Team Perry has been counting. Private polling indicates that in a two-way with Hutchison, Perry will dominate in the greater Houston area, no doubt because of his high visibility and impressive performance during two hurricanes.

Only White can trump Perry’s long shadow in voter-rich Houston. More importantly, White is transitioning directly from mayor to gubernatorial candidate which means his name ID is still high and his fundraising should not be impaired.

Houston/Harris County/Houston-Galveston metro or whatever other title you want to give "Greater Houston" represents something on the order of 20% of the entire statewide Democratic vote tally; maybe a bit less for the GOP (they're stronger in suburban and rural Texas, naturally). A swing of millions of votes from the Republican to the Democrat at the top of the ticket lifts the other down-ballot boats. More on that from HK just down from here.

Now let's not be naïve. Perry already has the opposition research on White. Expect to hear about under-funded public pensions and who knows what else in Houston. But that is pretty far down the road. White has plenty of time to put the book together on Perry and Hutchison … and now he can go back to his contributor list and hit them up for five-figure donations rather than the paltry $2,300 limit for a federal race.

Probably more like six figures in White's case.

Perry still holds the statewide name ID and charisma advantage over White should he win the primary. Consultant Dave Carney, pollster Mike Baselice and media maestro David Weeks have plenty of practice at this statewide election stuff and they start with a candidate the camera loves. However, Perry is considered a more polarizing figure (whose) strengths work best in a primary rather than a general election.

It’s no secret that some Republican House members worry that (Perry leading a) November ticket against a strong Democrat could well cost the GOP more seats going into a redistricting year. ...

And there's the most valuable bit: with all of this media attention on White, postponing a decision for the next two weeks spreads the fire wider. Everybody (D & R) who has thought about running for something in 2010 has to assess what it means for their prospects. In state Senate and House districts, in the courthouses (especially in Harris County) and at the statewide level, thousands of aspiring politicos woke up early this morning and are Twittering and texting even as I type this.

With White in the race, it may also become easier to flesh out the rest of the ticket. Eliott Shapleigh had been rumored to consider a statewide race, but perhaps Lt. Governor might be more enticing. Although we are only teasing a long shot, a spot on the Legislative Redistricting Board in 2011 would give him some serious leverage with his former colleagues should he somehow find himself as the presiding officer.

Kirk Watson may be reconsidering a statewide run, but his public reaction gave no clue. Barbara Radnofsky has been toiling the field in a quest for AG for over a year.

Sure, Kinky Friedman is running for Guv and Marc Katz says he is running for Lite Guv. But frankly, that is just another way of saying one is selling baloney and the other is selling pastrami.

Top-shelf New York Deli stuff, Harvey.

Republicans still have the incumbency advantage and are more battle-tested. And although Texas is still a center-right state, demographics are changing and Texas could turn purple sooner than anyone expects.

Meanwhile, the entire field in the greater Harris County area just got shook up. Republican-targeted Democrat Kristi Thibaut is in a little more secure position today than she was yesterday. Similarly, Democrat-targeted Republicans Dwayne Bohac and Ken Legler are on shakier ground than they were just a few hours ago.

Thibaut, Valinda Bolton, Joe Heflin, Diana Maldonado, and those other Texas House Democrats elected two years and four years ago that closed in on the majority are likely feeling very encouraged. Bohac, Legler, turncoat Chuck Hobson and half a dozen other Republicans across the state ought to be very concerned. TeaBagger mania just can't stay stoked all the way to next November; the fury is already waning and the Republicans will fragment into a back-biting morass by this time next year.

Finally, this from Bradley Olson about White and how he speaks to the evangelicals:

Accepting a plaque from the U.S. Pastor Council, a group of largely conservative Houston-area ministers whose executive director recently discussed plans to persuade voters not to choose City Controller Annise Parker because of her sexual orientation, White repeatedly emphasized tolerance and love and the separation of church and state.

Although the mayor has publicly stated that he hopes the race will not devolve into attacks dealing with race or sexual orientation, he did not mention the mayor's race at all in his remarks, although the subtext was there in almost every sentence.

White, who has proudly touted his Sunday-School-teacher bona fides even in the most unusual situations (a fact not lost on the pastor group, members of which heaped praise upon him), cited numerous references of scripture in urging those present not "to judge" as they jump into the political sphere.

Just as Jesus urged followers in the Sermon on the Mount (see Matthew 6) not to "pray in public to be seen," so too should faithful Christians avoid judging others and expressing their own "public righteousness," White said.

How many Republican votes all across Texas do you think that's worth?

White "considering"

Fresh from KHOU at White's press conference about two hours ago.

Houston Mayor Bill White says he is considering dropping out of the race for U.S. Senate and instead making a bid for the Governor's office, he said in a news conference Monday.

"Since Friday a week ago, Texans from all backgrounds have asked me to consider running for Governor of Texas," White said. "I agree to consider running for that office and will make a decision by Friday, December 4."

Now in the next paragraph it seems to be clear that this is more than a mere consideration.

White said he believes he could beat Perry in a head-to-head match up next fall, reminding reporters that the Governor won re-election with 39 percent of the vote in 2006. "I'm disappointed in Governor Perry's failure to make tangible progress in addressing the dropout race, fighting polluters, and I could go on and on," he said. "If I don't step up and do this, Texas faces several more years of highly-charged wedge politics and a lack of leadership, and Texas cannot afford that."

And about that meeting in Dallas with Boyd Richie and the other candidates ...

Texas Democratic Party leaders have been hastily arranging a new slate of candidates for the November, 2010 election, assuming White makes a run for the top of the ticket. Other Democratic candidates for Governor are reportedly meeting with party leadership at a meeting in Dallas this afternoon. According to 11News partner WFAA-TV in Dallas, TDP leadership said it will not back any specific candidate for governor in the primary, and other candidates remain in the race.

Jason Embry is a little more conspiratorial ...

A source inside one of the Democratic gubernatorial campaigns says that state party chairman Boyd Richie called a summit of the Democratic governor candidates (and candidates only) for 2:30 p.m. today at a Dallas law firm. The stated purpose early this month was to talk out guidelines for how the party would be involved and to make sure everyone was going to be aboard to endorse the eventual nominee. But this source speculates that this is some kind of gambit for Richie to blow everyone’s minds with Bill White as the candidate in favor. Same source says every candidate is committed to coming.

Tom Schieffer, in withdrawing today, not only endorsed White but called for the other candidates to clear the field for him. Hank Gilbert and Farouk Shami quickly -- and Kinky Friedman a bit more slowly -- responded that they would all remain in the race. First, Gilbert's spokesperson Vince Liebowitz:

"The departure of Tom Schieffer and the possible entry of Bill White into the governor’s race doesn’t change anything for Hank’s campaign. We're going to continue to stay the course, and we welcome all comers into the governor's race. Hank remains the only candidate in the race who has proposed bold common sense policy initiatives, and has actually proven that he has new innovative ideas to move Texas forward into the 21st Century. It's not going to change our base of grassroots support, and I'm sure that the departure of Ambassador Schieffer from the race will likely bring some more people over to our side. We welcome Mayor White if he wants to get into the race, but it’s not going to change anything for us."

And Shami:

"I came to America with $71 in my pocket and founded a multi-billion dollar company that has created thousands of jobs for Texans. Even Rick Perry says I embody the American Dream. I got into this race to create jobs for Texans, and that's why I'm sticking in this race. Let's have a positive Democratic Primary dedicated to discussing how to create the most jobs for Texans, and no matter who's part of that discussion, Texas will be better off."

Lastly, Kinky's spokeswoman Rania Batrice in responding to Schieffer's departure ...

"Our campaign plan was never dictated by who was or wasn't in the race. Our strategy has been and will continue to be one of common sense and honesty. Returning power to the people is Kinky's top priority, and that includes education reform, justice reform, and insurance reform."

That's the wrap for today on the topic of the day.

Schieffer leaves Democratic field *update* And White joins

"He just couldn't put it together".

Word is that Democrat Tom Schieffer is quitting his bid for governor of Texas. Some Texas Democrats have never warmed to Schieffer because of his long-time ties to George W. Bush. Schieffer was a partner with Bush with the Texas Rangers. And as president, Bush appointed him ambassador of Australia and Japan. Schieffer's campaign has struggled winning money and support. It has scheduled a 3 p.m. news conference today. Ross Ramsey at Texas Tribune is reporting this morning that Schieffer will announce he's out and sources are confirming that's true. There's talk that Schieffer might consider switching to the lieutuenant governor's race, but no confirmation of that.

When our little Houston blogger confab had lunch with Tom back in August, I was impressed with him to a degree but skeptical, like many, of his close personal relationship with 43. Schieffer had collected many endorsements from Texas legislators, so those cards are back on the table.

Could Schieffer's exit herald another entry into the governor's race from the likes of Bill White or Ronnie Earle or Elliot Shapleigh? Time will tell.

Update: "Time", in this case, was something less than an hour ...

Fort Worth businessman Tom Schieffer is expected to drop out of the Texas governor's race later today, and Houston Mayor Bill White then will join the fray, according to a reliable source.

We now have a second reliable source telling us that White's switch to the governor's race will occur.

I was -- like White himself -- on record as saying this wasn't likely, so now we'll watch the speculation fly this afternoon, and in the days and weeks ahead.

Update II: From the TexTrib's updated story ...

Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie called a meeting of the gubernatorial candidates — no staff allowed — for this afternoon in Dallas. Speculation in the campaigns is that he's trying to clear the path for White, and perhaps to talk the candidates into other statewide races where no Democrats have declared. They've been told only that he wants to outline what the Democratic Party can do for them, to ask them not to cut each other up too badly in a primary, and to ask them to support the nominee, whomever that turns out to be.

Update III: Shapleigh endorses White.

The Weekly Wrangle

The turkeys and hogs might be a little nervous, but the blogs of the Texas Progressive Alliance stride fearlessly toward the Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend with this round-up of the best postings from last week.

The Texas Cloverleaf clues you in on why you can't breathe in Denton County -- gas drillers!

WCNews at Eye On Williamson has some thoughts on Texas House Speaker Joe Straus' interim charges -- including topics like feral hogs, blogging, and transportation.

On Bluedaze: DRILLING REFORM FOR TEXAS, TXsharon summarizes the Barnett Shale emissions meeting in Fort Worth.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme would like the sun to shine on city doings even if city officials don't.

Justin at Asian American Action Fund Blog is delighted that Hank Gilbert has enlisted Geeyung Li as APIA Outreach Director and thus has the first Asian American senior staffer of the campaign.

With Farouk Shami's entrance into the race, McBlogger thinks it's now down to two real candidates. Find out who they are.

WhosPlayin discusses how two cities within the Lewisville ISD have vastly different expectations when it comes to construction.

Neil at Texas Liberal offered information about when you should thaw your turkey. He also offered information about having a vegetarian Thanksgiving if that's your thing.

The Kay Bailey-Rick Perry cage match is a front in the war for control of the Republican Party going on throughout the country. Battles like the one in NY-23 last month are gearing up in a D-FW-area state Senate district in Texas, and a US Senate race in Florida, and likely all points in-between. Find out more at Brains and Eggs.

Over at Texas Vox, Public Citizen energy policy director Tyson Slocum urges the EPA to use the Clean Air Act to fight global warming.

nytexan at BlueBloggin is worn out with political buzz words, especially Socialism, The New Buzz Word. Americans are amazingly ignorant about civics, types of governments and the world around them. Knowing what's going on around us, and researching facts is after all boring and unnecessary when we have news soundbites. And I am not only speaking about the talking heads on Fox. Yes, here in America, we even outsource our thought process to main stream media and whatever tickles their fancy at any given moment.

Libby Shaw over at Texas Kaos reports on the circular firing squad that is today's Texas Republican Party in her posting, Tea Party Candidates to Challenge Texas Republicans . Give it a read.

Sunday Sorta Funnies

KBH versus Perry spotlights GOP in a tug-a-war

Sam Merten in the Houston Press:

At stake is more than just the governor's mansion. It's a pitched battle for the soul of the Republican Party not only statewide but nationally as the GOP tries to figure out how to keep itself relevant in the age of Obama. Must it go to the hard right and maintain ideological purity by purging itself of moderates, as Perry suggests; must it cast its lot with newly elected Republican Party of Texas chair Cathie Adams, the former president of the socially conservative Texas Eagle Forum and a Perry supporter who feels there's a high moral cost to tempering ideology with moderation?

Or is there room underneath the tent for pro-choice Republicans, Log Cabin Republicans and "environmental wackos," as Adams describes them, who believe in limited government, lower taxes and a strong national defense? ...

The battle lines of the civil war are drawn: Hutchison vs. Perry, Longhorn vs. Aggie, party diversity vs. party purity, right of center vs. extreme right, a race that could energize the party or one that may tear it apart.

We already know which way the RPofT wants to go. Paul Burka posted the letter from George Strake imploring Kay Bailey to abandon the governor's race, and another post brutalizing her first television advertisement:

What can I say? This is what we have been waiting for? Everything about this spot is dreadful. I can’t even give it a positive grade. It is going to lose votes. She has no energy. Her body language radiates defeat. The fighting words have no defiance in them. The subject matter is wrong. The message is wrong. And where was an editor when somebody wrote a script that raised the red herring of a state takeover of health care? That’s from outer space. Anyone who is backing her and sees this spot is going to be not just disappointed, but dismayed. Even horrified.

Perhaps Hutchison is trying to follow the old rule of “hang a lantern on your problem.” But the problem that she is hanging a lantern on is not that she had a difficult time making a decision about leaving the Senate. The real problem is that she has never given a rationale for her candidacy. If she had spent half the energy she devoted to worrying about her resignation on developing a message, she would be in much better shape today. Are we supposed to vote for her for governor because she’s against Obama’s health care program? We already have a governor who is against it. Who is going to be persuaded to vote for Hutchison because she vows to do the job she was elected to do?

Why in the world would Hutchison choose to make her first spot one that focuses on a process issue? Nobody cares about process. People care about what she is going to do for the state. Why is she still talking about a decision that has been made? She can’t undo the past and all the dilly dallying and undisciplined talk about whether and when she would resign, September, October, November, December, January, never, whenever. It just highlights the lack of self-confidence that comes out in her body language.

...(She has become) is a creature of Washington — not in the way Perry means it, that her values have been infected by the cooties of the Capitol, but in the sense that she stayed too long. She originally said she would serve two terms, and that is what she should have done: quit in 06 and run for governor, and there is a good chance she would be running for reelection today. She has no feel for Texas politics any more, or what the Texas Republican party has become — otherwise she would never have undertaken the suicide mission of attacking Perry for refusing the unemployment insurance stimulus funds, when 70+% of Republican primary voters agreed with him. But she is determined to prove that she is as much of a conservative as he is, which is futile. She had months to do her homework on Texas issues, and that time is now gone, and she hasn’t done it. If she gets in a TV debate with Perry on Texas issues, she’d better have EMS on hand because she is going to get slaughtered.

And Burka is -- by my estimation -- the voice of Texas Republican moderation. (Mostly.)

Anyway, the purge in Deep-In-The-Hearta on the undercard of the Kay-Rick death match is well under way. Here is one of my occasionally unhinged right-wing-blog brethren attacking state Sen. Kip Averitt -- he represents ten southern D-FW metro suburban and rural counties -- suggesting he might switch parties. Believe me, Kip Averitt is no Chuck Hobson.

That New York Congressional race won by the Democrat when the Republican withdrew and endorsed him because of the insane TeaBagger Party challenge? Look for a lot more of that all over the country, and especially here in Texas. The extreme right will win a few more of these (primary challenges) than they will lose, and what the moderates do in November 2010 is anybody's guess. None of the internecine fighting strengthens the GOP brand, no matter what they think. Harvey Kronberg, from the Press article also linked at the top:

"We now have two reasonably popular Republicans in a bloodbath with each other. Everybody who is an active Republican understands the loser's supporters are going to be put into exile; they won't be able to play in politics anymore. So it's going to divide the fund-raising base, it's going to divide the supporter base and it's going to damage the party for years to come."

Related:

Tea partiers turn on each other

Beck stakes out activist role

Republicans eye the tiger of populism

Lou Dobbs: The Anti-Palin

Update: And more ... Beck unveils plan to save America