Obama's (and Congress') full plate

And the Republicans are spitting in it.

Congress returns this week to an ambitious agenda that includes a Supreme Court confirmation, major financial regulation, potential immigration reform and other significant priorities. Some, like Elena Kagan's nomination, appear likely to pass. Others are less clear. ...

And the closer Democrats get to midterm election season, the more Congress will have to factor in how re-election races will impact their agenda. Democrats in close races may be less willing to take controversial votes as they turn to wooing independent and conservative voters for November.

All of which means this will be a very busy July.

In this session, Democrats in Congress will press on the following key items:

• Elena Kagan: Congress hopes to confirm U.S. Solicitor General Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court before the August recess. First, the Senate Judiciary Committee must vote to confirm, then her confirmation will be put to a full Senate vote. Some Republicans have expressed their opposition to Kagan's nomination, but Democrats are still expected to round up the 60 votes required to overcome a Republican filibuster and confirm her.

• Financial Reform: Though Democrats weren't able to pass financial reform legislation in the Senate before July 4th, they did get the good news that Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell plans to support the legislation despite voting against an earlier version in May. Her vote switch gave new life to the bill in the wake of Byrd's death and consequent loss of Byrd's supporting vote. Republican Sen. Susan Collins also said that she is "inclined to support" the bill, further bolstering Democratic efforts. The bill would rein in the power of big banks, try to prevent a future financial collapse, and add oversight to many sectors of the financial industry.

• Unemployment Benefits: An estimated 2 million Americans reached the end of their unemployment benefits during the six weeks the Senate has been debating the issue. The longer the debate continues, the more unemployed Americans join that group. Passing the proposed six month extension is a challenge without Byrd in the Senate, but his temporary successor would provide the key 60th vote.

• Immigration Reform: Immigration has jumped into the forefront of congressional debate as Arizona's controversial state immigration law makes waves across the country. President Obama identified immigration reform as one of his top priorities in the months ahead, yet its prospects in Congress seem dim. The controversial nature of the issues makes it a difficult topic for members involved in difficult re-election races. The Department of Justice has pressed forward with legal opposition to Arizona's law, but the legislation for now remains stalled in Congress.

• Energy Reform: Democrats can likely pass a bill that creates new incentives for alternative energy and limits offshore oil drilling. The question is whether or not they can also use the energy bill to target climate change. Senate Republicans fiercely oppose President Obama's proposed cap on carbon emissions, as do some key centrist lawmakers (especially the ones protecting the coal industry in their districts).

• War Funding: Just before the July 4th recess, the president threatened to veto the latest version of a spending bill which will, in part, fund the president's troop surge in Afghanistan. The president took issue with cuts for education funding included in the bill passed by the House July 1. The legislation now heads to the Senate, where the president hopes allies will restore the funding.

How much of this can be stalled, slow-walked, talked to death and killed depends on the success of the GOP keeping Ben Nebraska Nelson on their side and how quickly WVA Gov. Joe Manchin fills Robert Byrd's empty seat.

In other words, the chances of little progress happening are good.

Update: Nelson says he'll go along, and Manchin will appoint a replacement by the end of the coming weekend. Now that's progress.

Cutting holes in the safety net

The death of Sen. Robert Byrd last month left Democrats with one less sitting member in the Senate, effectively destroying their immediate plan to pass a financial reform bill and to separately extend unemployment benefits prior to the July 4th recess.

An estimated 2 million Americans reached the end of their unemployment benefits during the six weeks the Senate has been debating the issue. The longer the debate continues, the more unemployed Americans join that group. Passing the proposed six-month extension is a challenge without Byrd in the Senate, but his temporary successor would provide the key 60th vote.

In just one week and in just one state -- last week in Missouri -- more than 8,300 people fell through the unemployment insurance safety net.

Actually, their nets were removed.

The result: Those who have lost jobless benefits already are turning in greater numbers to food pantries and other emergency aid programs, both government and nonprofit.

"We're hearing from more people needing assistance," said Ron Howard, spokesman for the United Way of Greater Kansas City. "Our 2-1-1 call center is seeing an increase in calls, especially from first-time callers.

"Without a doubt, the loss of that unemployment check is a contributing factor."

Advocates for continuing unemployment benefits note that the Congressional Budget Office has ranked unemployment insurance as the most effective form of economic stimulus.

“It gets money into the hands of the people who are most likely to spend it,” [Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute] said. “It goes straight into their local economies when they use it to pay for their food and housing.”

One study indicates that $10 billion of unemployment insurance spending creates or saves 100,000 jobs.

“Do the math,” Shierholz said. “Failure to approve the $35.5 billion unemployment program translates into 350,000 jobs that aren’t happening. Whatever your feelings about unemployment insurance, you can’t ignore that there’s a drain on public assistance in other ways.”

Yes, I hope everyone will.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance doesn't need to go to South Beach to form a dream team. We've had one all along, and here are the highlights.

Off the Kuff wrote about the problems of how we deal with the mentally ill in the criminal justice system, and a pilot program in Houston to handle the "chronic consumers" more efficiently and compassionately.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wonders why the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals judges weigh their religious beliefs and superstitions against a defendant's religion?

Bay Area Houston says that conservative politicians in Houston have declared an end to the "Tax and Spend" name calling in Houston.

TXsharon made a statement at the EPA hydraulic fracturing hearing in Ft. Worth and used industry's own studies and statements to prove that hydraulic fracturing needs federal regulation under the SDWA. Bluedaze: DRILLING REFORM FOR TEXAS.

Nat-Wu triumphantly returns to Three Wise Men to write about the possibilty of a double-dip recession and even a third depression on the economic horizon.

Lightseeker ponders Who is killing our Democracy? as he examines the links between the latest numbers scandal from the Texas Education Agency and the larger issues of the death of public understanding and civil conversation.

Campaign season is always a blast, especially watching the Democrats beat the fool out of the Republicans. This week, McBlogger take a look at a nice solid beating Hank Gilbert gave Sleazy Todd Staples.

Neil at Texas Liberal is glad that the Green Party will be on the 2010 Texas ballot. Voters deserve options.

There's a few reasons why Voter ID just won't fly in Texas, and PDiddie has them at Brains and Eggs.

School districts in Texas are facing an extraordinarily tough year, financially, due to state funding formulas and falling property values. As one North Texas school district considers a tax rate increase, WhosPlayin takes a light-hearted look at some of the dire consequences if we don't raise school district tax rates.

This week at Left of College Station, Teddy covers the closed meetings, closed books, and the lack of information between the Bryan city council and BTU. Also, a look at why white America may be in a recession but black America is in a depression. And as always, the week in headlines.

Sunday Brunch wish-they-were-Funnies

LeBron James splits ...

... the baby:


“I’VE DECIDED I’M GOING TO PLAY FOR … MIAMI OF OHIO!”

(Thanks to Satirical Political.)

Why Voter ID won't fly in Texas

John Tanner cuts to the nut.

Let's be clear. The pro-ID requirement crowd has relied on hot air rather than facts. Its case rests on the myth that crowds of people are going to the polls and pretending to be someone else. The fact is that cases of voter impersonation are as rare as hens' teeth. But when neither side has had evidence, the courts have upheld ID laws out of deference to the legislatures.

The Supreme Court has made clear that anti-ID forces can and will prevail if they can produce actual individuals whose right to vote will be denied or abridged by an ID requirement.

Welcome to Texas.

Texas is a unique state with a unique population mix, unique size and unique geography — among other unique characteristics. What might be true in Indianapolis will not be true in the Rio Grande Valley.

Tanner -- former head of the voting division of the USDOJ's Civil Rights department -- led this piece with the recent case law associated with Voter ID wins in the states of Indiana and Georgia, so go to the original article if you need to catch up.

In Indiana and Georgia, county seats are local business, commercial and community hubs. Local residents visit them often in the normal course of their daily lives. Those without cars catch a ride with a friend or relative, as they can in much of East Texas.

But so much of Texas is different. Take Presidio County. Marfa, the county seat, is a tiny town of 2,121 souls notable mainly as an oasis of minimalist art. It sits at the northern end of the county, while most county residents live 89 miles away over rough mountain roads in the town of Presidio.

Minimalist art is not on the front burner in Presidio. More than 40 percent of the residents live in poverty. More than 70 percent of those older than 65 have a disability. More than 94 percent are Hispanic.

Marfa doesn't offer much reason for Presidio residents to visit, at least for those who don't crave some grilled radicchio with gorgonzola or need a giant metal sculpture. For people without cars, it takes a lot to persuade a neighbor to fill the pickup truck with gas and drive you 120 miles from Presidio to Marfa and back.

For those down the road in the 88 percent Hispanic community of Redford, the round trip is more than 150 miles. In a neighbor's old truck, that might be 20 gallons of gas plus wear and tear — more than $100 by current government reimbursement rates — plus a day gone and wages lost for both of you. That is the sort of unreasonable burden on voters that will persuade a court.

If voter ID opponents need victims, citizens who will face unconscionable burdens under a voter ID regime, they can find them in Presidio. And Presidio County is part of a pattern.

Texas counties are big, especially along the Rio Grande. A dozen Texas counties are twice as large as the entire state of Rhode Island. Ten of the 12 are more than 50 percent minority. Of the 32 counties over 55 percent Hispanic, 27 are larger than Rhode Island.

Tanner winds up and hurls the payoff pitch, which David Dewhurst and every single Republican in the state legislature needs to clearly understand.

Voter ID proponents think that when they face the inevitable court challenge to any law they manage to pass, they'll have a slam dunk. They might find that they are the ones who'll get slammed and dunked. And that they have wasted another legislative session chasing wild geese while the real problems of Texas remain unaddressed.

Texas Republicans and their attorneys are happy taking their chances with a 100% GOP state Supreme Court which favors defendants 87% of the time (usually corporations sued by little guys).  And they will keep doing it until we elect some Democrats to the state Supreme Court, and to the appellate court.

But more to Tanner's point here: Texas Republican legislators only waste time with Voter ID because it lathers up their paranoid, racist, TeaBagger base, while the damage associated with an $18 billion dollar budget shortfall keep festering.

The way we stop that is to elect just three more Democrats to the Texas House.