Stockman: 5 polls show Cornyn being pushed into runoff

The alternative news outlet JP Updates:

In the latest poll out of Texas by Human Events-Gravis Marketing, there’s some trouble for current Senator John Cornyn who is running for re-election.

When asked “if the election were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?” Cornyn holds a 15-point lead, 43% to 28% Stockman, while 29% of the voters are still undecided.

“Congressman Stockman is much closer than expected,” Douglas Kaplan of Gravis Marketing said. “Cornyn is under 50% with a significant amount still undecided, which is dangerous territory for an incumbent. The poll was conducted before Cornyn’s recent cloture vote on raising the debt limit, which could hurt him among conservative primary voters.”

When asked if they approve of Rep. Stockman, 55% said they’re unsure while 28% approved and 18% disapproved. When asked the same about Sen. John Cornyn 49% said they approve, 26% disapprove and 24% were unsure.

The poll was conducted between 2/10/14 and 2/12/14, 729 likely Republican voters participated in the phone survey. The poll has a margin of error 3.6%.

Stockman is crowing about this, and heaps on some additional derision for the incumbent.

This is the fifth independent poll published in Cornyn’s race.  All five show Cornyn failing to win over 50 percent.  Cornyn has refused to release his internal polling results and has begun directly attacking Stockman, which usually indicates a candidate is in trouble.

A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll conducted between Oct. 18 and Oct. 27, 2013 found Cornyn with only 39 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, far below where a two-term incumbent and member of Senate leadership should be.

An Oct. 26, 2013 Gravis poll showed Cornyn failing to win a majority in a two-way race against five different candidates.  It showed Cornyn getting only 41 percent against Stockman, whom many voters were not familiar with.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Nov. 1-4, 2013 found “49% [of Republican primary voters] say they would like their candidate next year to be someone more conservative, compared to only 33% who say they support Cornyn.”

PPP concluded “John Cornyn is in grave danger of losing a primary next year if a serious campaign is run against him. Cornyn’s approval with Republican primary voters is only 46%, with 33% of voters disapproving of him.”

Even a poll by WPA Opinion Research conducted Dec. 10-12, 2013, and touted by Cornyn himself, showed Cornyn only at 50 percent among likely Republican primary voters. At the time of the poll many voters were not aware Cornyn had an opponent.

I don't have any idea how much stock to place in this data.  Primary polling is even less reliable than it is ahead of general elections, and this latest one is an ultraconservative source with an agenda.  Let's just mark it down as a data point worthy of some chat for now.  I find it more interesting that Cornyn's other Tea Pee challenger, Dwayne Stovall, appears to be finding some traction, especially with a video ad you can see here, which earned him the coveted Big Jolly endorsement.

If the conventional wisdom here is this far removed from the battle on the GOP ground, and one of these two morons forces Cornyn into a May runoff, I can certainly believe that Big John will be too politically wounded to hold on.  At this point I still don't see it, but stranger things have happened.

If you are still reading, then you can click over to view the results of a Central Texas Republican Assembly (sounds Communist to me) straw poll from almost two months ago that has Stockman ahead of Cornyn 45-41, with Stovall and four others registering no support whatsoever.  This is why you can't pay too much attention to these things so early... and why paying anything but marginal attention to them is like nailing a rack of ribs to a tree to lure Bigfoot.

Update: Juanita Jean is encouraged.  And on some level, I am a little surprised that this guy isn't ahead of Cornyn.  Maybe he should have run for governor, or lieutenant governor, or...

A. Because Greg Abbott is Ted Nugent's wingman

Q. Why is Greg Abbott palling around with a predator?



Update: What exactly would Ted Nugent have to say in order for Republicans to stop campaigning with him?  I'll bet I can guess; something like "I was wrong all this time, and I support President Obama".

James Moore takes down the TexTrib

"Bush's Brain" author James Moore has been on a tear for the past month, between cracking the skulls of Texas political reporters over the Wendy Davis stories, and then cracking Davis herself over her clumsy relations with same.  He made a clean break with her over open carry, and now he's got the Texas Tribune in his crosshairs in a two four-part piece.  First, he upbraids Trib editor Emily Ramshaw for thanking a candidate on Twitter for an "*unbelievably* generous financial contribution".

Ramshaw may not have known she was talking to a candidate in a district only seven miles from the Tribune’s office, or she simply did not care. Either of those possibilities, however, is not acceptable to anyone who might believe the Tribune can do meaningful reporting on Texas politics and government. One suggests incompetence; the other points toward collusion. The Trib simply cannot be unbiased because it has become a part of the institutions it told the public it intended to scrutinize and hold responsible for good government. Regardless of the organization’s intentions, there is no conclusion to reach other than the Texas Tribune has to be considered corrupted by its sources of funding.

In journalism, appearances are destiny.

The “non-profit” Tribune is the recipient of significant amounts of money from the same corporations and lobbyists that donate to legislators and other office holders to help them in their campaigns, and to influence the outcome of legislation related to those donor’s special interests. In any context, this is a classic conflict of interest, and regardless of how much the Trib’s editors might insist they are able to do their work without being affected by these funds, they have been in operation long enough to see there is no reason to take them seriously as a news organization, and the evidence to reach this conclusion is abundant.

It’s also a kind of rank hypocrisy that is so grandiose as to be entertaining.

With the news over the weekend that Breitbart is to begin posting a Texas version of its very own truthiness for conservatives, this remains a bad time to be a real, actual journalist in the Lone Star.  From the second part of Moore's story...

During the glory days of journalism at the Texas capitol in Austin, newspapers with large bureau staffs covered hearings and debates on legislation, almost every statewide campaign for office, and also held the governor and lawmakers accountable on a daily basis. TV stations from the four major cities maintained full time broadcast bureaus even when the legislature was not in session. We were expected to be on the air every evening with a new and important story. The hourly machinations of state government in the 80s and 90s were scrutinized by many sets of eyes. Big city newspapers circulated in Austin and reporters read and watched the competitions’ stories to learn what had been missed, and so did the lobbyists and legislators.

After 22 years of being a part of that capitol press corps as a TV news correspondent, I joined a startup company that tried to launch a statewide network newscast and website. The Internet was just beginning its maturation process and we were hopeful. My final year in the business, however, ended with me traveling on the George W. Bush presidential campaign for that nascent news operation and, subsequently, I left journalism to begin work in public relations. In retrospect, my timing was excellent. The slow shutdown of every TV news bureau and reduction of newspaper staff sizes indicated editors and budget writers had made a decision about what interested their readers and viewers, and government did not make the cut.

As for the TexTrib, their bias toward their corporate overlords was first revealed by Texas Sharon at EarthWorks, summarized here.  I have also excoriated their terrible polling more than once or twice.

If the TexTrib wants to be a mouthpiece for the corporations, much as what has become of NPR, then so be it.  Let's not kid ourselves about it, however.  And if the looniest of conservatives think the Tribune is "leftist media", you better know that the remaining load is to be dumped on top of your head in short order.

Update: Here are parts three and four from Moore, and Socratic Gadfly's take.  

Update II: And Eye on Williamson cuts to the nut as well.

There is no sustainable business model for doing the kind or journalism and reporting that the public needs in a democracy. Corporations and the wealthy will not buy advertising on media outlets that doggedly expose their malfeasance and corruption. The publicly funded model we once had did a pretty good job of supporting the kind of journalism and reporting we need. But when the same money that’s buying public and non-profit media, is also buying our politicians, it’s unlikely they’d be willing to ramp up funding for funding public media. One that would be independent enough to expose their political corruption.

Finally (which means any more updates on this topic will go into a new post), Moore provides the responses from the TexTrib in "No Country for Old Reporters".

The reaction to the Texas Tribune piece has been mostly condescension from Trib reporters. None of them addressed me directly in their tweets but one of their digirati tweeted a “counter-counter” response, “No country for old men.” I’m sure that is patently true. Best I can tell the only people over 50 at the Tribune are Ross Ramsey, though I think Jay Root is 50 or close, and Evan Smith is 47. Everyone else is quite young, and much more affordable, and easily taught the way things are done. 

But youth doesn’t slow down the Trib. CEO Evan Smith tweeted that they were looking for a reporter to do a deep, investigative dive into the Texas criminal justice system. A complex as hell topic that has befuddled many a grizzled journalistic veteran but the Trib is advertising the slot as “entry level.” Good luck, kid, from an old man who apparently doesn’t belong in that country.

The Early Voting Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is always ready to cast a ballot as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff concluded his series of primary interviews with conversations featuring State Rep. Mary Gonzalez, and Ag Commissioner candidates Kinky Friedman and Hugh Fitzsimons.

Over two million Texas voters from the 2008 Democratic primary -- and eight million who were registered to vote in 2012's general election -- have not shown up to cast a ballot. Texas is NOT a conservative state; it's a non-voting state. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs has the details on what it will take for Texas to turn blue, and the numbers don't offer much encouragement.

Horwitz at Texpatriate explains why Attorney General Greg Abbott pulled the ladder up behind him on other disabled Texans after receiving his thirty pieces of silver.

WCNews at Eye on Williamson shows how the Texas GOP, with Rick Perry at the wheel, took the express lane to Crazy Town and the rest of Texas is along for the ride: It's Going To Be A Huge Mess.

Neil at All People Have Value admired turtles and a fish seemingly doing well in dirty water in Houston's Buffalo Bayou. These creatures recall the fact that people can not only thrive in a rough environment, they can also shape their surroundings for the better. All People Have Value is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Texas Clean Air Matters calls on the state to work with the EPA.

The Feminist Justice League shows some love for Sen. Leticia Van de Putte.

The Texas Green Report cheers a study showing Texas among the nation's leaders in solar-related jobs.

Christopher Hooks wants Dan Patrick and Julian Castro to have that debate about immigration already.

Lone Star Q salutes outgoing Fort Worth City Council member Joel Burns.

Mustafa Tameez analyzes NASA's Tea Party Primary in CD36.

Battleground Texas had an amazingly successful event at Rice University for Wendy Davis.

And finally, the TPA congratulates Noel Freeman for a long awaited and much deserved second chance.