EV turnout on Day One and other developments

Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart said as of 4 p.m. 1,847 Republican voters had cast ballots early in person, along with 338 Democrats.

Just as in the May primary, mail ballots are playing a significant role in the runoffs. As of Friday, 14,000 GOP voters had returned mail ballots, joined by 6,500 Democrats, Stanart said.

Turnout improved significantly as voters got off work and went to the polls. Three hours later at closing the in-person count was 1537 Ds and 8231 Rs. The mail-in numbers also edged up: 14,750 Republican, 6671 Democratic. All this data is courtesy of Du-Ha Kim Nguyen in Clerk Stanart's office.

The turnout was also good at the GOP Senate mudfight last night. The behavior of the two combatants was the same; the audience participation was typical TeaBagger.

The politics of the personal trumped differences over policy in Monday's debate between U.S. Senate candidates Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz, who accused each other of lying about their respective records and waging a media war marked by untruth and insult.

Sponsored by the King Street Patriots, a Houston-based tea party organization, and carried live on KRIV-Channel 26, the Houston affiliate, the hour-long debate before an audience of more than 300 offered mostly nuanced differences on the issues. With the candidates standing at separate podiums within a few feet of each other, the conversation grew heated when Cruz accused Dewhurst of running a dirty campaign.

[...]

Although the audience had been told in advance not to applaud or audibly respond to the candidates' remarks, an audience member shouted "Not true" as Dewhurst spoke. Later in the debate, an audience member yelled "Liar." The candidates ignored the outbursts.

Wow that sounds familiar, doesn't it? Where in the world have I heard of whining, moaning accusations from the establishment's candidate of a negative campaign being waged by the upstart challenger?

Speaking of CD07, the Harris County Democratic Party's de facto chairman, Carl Whitmarsh, has declared a moratorium on any more email through his listserv of the House seat's primary between Lissa Squiers and James Cargas.

That's fine with me... because he has only been sending out Cargas e-mails for weeks now.

Update: Even Campos is sad about it. Naturally, within a few hours of announcing his ban, Carl sent out the following from Cargas himself. I'm sure it was just a mistake...

Welcome to the world under Citizens United. Where candidates raise the least amount of money, candidates have less control of what happens in their race, and the FEC is becoming less relevant. I don't know who Alice Addertongue is; and I don't want to.  Because under Citizens United, if I were to ask her to pull down her site, I would be “coordinating” with her (this assumes that the site she links to is hers).

Of course, the same cannot be said for Ms. Squiers. She is clearly coordinating with Perry Dorrell and his vile vicious blog that attacks 99% of Houston, including my dear Communications Director, our beloved former Councilmember Peter Brown, and even the Chronicle's suit-wearing editors - none of whom are running for Congress. Exhibit 1 is the “paid for by the Lissa Squiers for Congress Campaign” postcard mailed to my Campaign Manager signed by Mr. Dorrell. Exhibit 2 is the fact that Dorrell’s posts are sent to you for circulation at the request of my opponent.

I have the distinct advantage of being the ONLY candidate in the runoff talking about the issues. Issues that Democrats and all Americans care deeply about. I am losing that advantage the more these distractions continue. So, I actually would like Ms. Addertogue to stop her throwing of gasoline on the fire (I knew about Squires’ arrest a long time ago but did not see any value in releasing it; after all, she pled nolo contendere, which is akin to not guilty). It wouldn’t hurt, my friend, if some gatekeeping happened on your end too and a gag order were placed on Mr. Dorrell.

Well if that isn't the pot calling the kettle black. Googling peoples' public records is so Matt Bramanti, James.

Cargas hasn't read my posts closely enough. Or maybe doesn't communicate clearly with his communications director. Because if he did, he would know that I outed myself as a volunteer in the Squiers campaign a looong time ago. For at least the third time, Team Cargas: 'volunteer' means UNPAID. I realize this is a foreign concept to you folks in and of itself, but it is quite common in the political world.

Mr. Cargas: go get the most recent copy of the map of the 7th district, familiarize yourself with it, and remember that if you want to bring federal grants to the Texas Medical Center next year, you might have to lobby Al Green -- and not Lissa Squiers -- for them.

What I have learned in two weeks of not just postcard signing but blockwalking and phone-calling, however, is that most voters have never heard of either Carl or me. So -- as I have suspected all along -- this campaign will likely turn on the simplest of differences between the two candidates: Community Democrat versus Corporate Democrat. Oil and Gas Attorney versus Single Mother. Progressive as opposed to "moderate" conservative.

The Democratic primary for the US Senate race is both very similar and very different. There have been some fascinating discussions recently on Facebook, which I would wish to excerpt here except that I really don't want to go to the trouble. Suffice it to say -- if you haven't been party to those chats -- that most Democrats are in a quandary about whom to choose because of the two rivals' corresponding incompetence as candidates. In making my own selection a month ago, I explained my tongue-in-cheek-but-not-really rationale.

The TDP, in an e-mail to voters yesterday, decided to abandon neutrality and join the fray. A lengthy comparison of Paul Sadler's curriculum vitae publica, alongside Grady Yarbrough's nonexistent one, concluded with "The Choice is Clear".

Eh, not so much, Gilberto. Texas Democrats have a fairly consistent record of nominating as many pure populists with no experience as they do "moderate" establishment types. Victor Morales and Gene Kelly come to mind right alongside Rick Noriega and Barbara Radnofsky and Ron Kirk. Neither faction seems to hold an edge with respect to general election results. So IMHO the choice isn't so clear.

And candidly, the TDP is damned if they do and damned if they don't. By picking sides in a primary they draw deserved heat; by not doing so they have also withered fire in circular formation in the past. To me this e-mail demonstrates that the TDP is going to have to offer this message's value as an in-kind contribution to the Sadler campaign, which will be the largest one of any kind the man is likely to receive.

No matter who the Democrats and Republicans nominate, the choices ARE clear for those who don't want to pinch their nostrils while voting. David Collins is the Green and John Jay Myers is the Libertarian.

Now that choice is much clearer. In fact, it just might be as clear as choosing CD07's Community Democrat over the Corporate one.

Have you voted yet this week?

The Weekly Runoff Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds everyone that this is the only week of early voting for the July 31 primary runoffs as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff notes that Medicaid expansion would be far less expensive than originally claimed.
  
BossKitty at TruthHugger is sad to see history repeating itself more frequently. More and more people are "loosing" their sanity and getting away with it. Because of the recent mass murders in Colorado, I re-post I Have A Gun and I Have A Grudge – Aurora Update.

The Romney campaign is blatantly lying, and CNN and Fox News are going along with it. It's what WCNews at Eye on Williamson calls The horribleness of our media.

The Houston Chronicle made an endorsement in the Democratic primary that caused PDiddie at Brains and Eggs to question their integrity. It's an unsettling account of an editorial board with few apparent scruples and even less journalistic competence.  

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants you to know that our government is still building a monument to racism, aka that damn fence.

Justin at Asian American Action Fund has Linsanity.

Neil at Texas Liberal offered a first look at the 2012 Green Party Presidential ticket.

Regarding that HouChron endorsement last week

I mentioned here that I was going to write about last week's endorsement by the Houston Chronicle in the race for the Seventh Congressional District's Democratic run-off, with early voting beginning tomorrow morning at 7 a.m at polling places around the county, and concluding Tuesday July 31st. Here that is.

The two men representing the Chron's editorial board were managing editor John Wilburn and Evan Mintz.

Wilburn is one of the paper's higher-ups, editorially speaking. 'Managing editor" is the #2 ranking person on the news side, usually only answering to the Editor and the Publisher in Hearst's hierarchy (though this is based on my aged past experience with Hearst community newspapers, and the Chronicle, as an urban market daily, may have a different reporting structure). He's been in this position since 2008. He is also the husband of Texas Monthly writer Mimi Schwartz. Here's a photo of them at a recent benefit sponsored by the paper.

Wilburn is, in short, of fairly high stature professionally, socially, and probably financially. Comfortable, I suspect, but maybe not wealthy. He travels in wealthy circles, though, and his professional and social status is representative of Houston's elite.

Nothing wrong with that.

Mintz is slightly more out in the open. He describes himself at his Twitter profile as someone who "sometimes writes for the Houston Chronicle". His Twitter feed consists mostly of the usual inane chat and semi-witty repartee that infests the medium generally. Mintz does have several examples of quality writing around the Web; I have been aware of his blog for almost as long as I have been writing at my own. It's not very active but seems to draw a share of fans. Here's an article he wrote for the Rice University Thresher about Dan Patrick; here's another from his law school newspaper advertising himself for hire. Here's another article written about him at the Chron that spotlights his internship at the ACLU. Mintz might be a fairly significant contributor to the e-board endorsement process; here he Tweeted the Chron's judicial endorsements back in May.

With just a few clicks, then, it becomes fairly easy to discern Mintz' political leanings: he's a good liberal. He supports good Democrats like Jamaal Smith in the statehouse race for HD137 (whom I support as well; scroll back up that page and look to the right). The endorsement of Smith from the Chron was also a Mintz Tweet. (Here I should write that Gene Wu, the other candidate in that run-off, would make a fine representative and, like Charles, I would be delighted to see either man serving the district in the Texas House next January.)

What's fairly unusual for Chronicle reporters, specifically Mintz's name on Smith's endorsement page, is to reveal their political connections this obviously. *Update, Monday 7/23: Evan Mintz's name has been removed from the list of supporters of Smith. C'mon people; screenshots, for Chrissakes. 

One Chronicle writer was terminated for making a campaign contribution a few years ago (maybe that's where the line is drawn). If I were Mr. Wu I might be a little upset upon learning this information about Mintz. Being an attorney I'm sure Mintz ought to know where the line is drawn, and so -- I am certain --  does the newspaper.

This appearance of bias is not what I am looking for in my newspaper endorsements, however, and I frankly believe that  Mintz crossed it, both in this endorsement of Smith and in the one for Cargas. That's subject to individual interpretation, naturally.

According to reports from the scene, Cargas and Mintz demonstrated a relaxed affability at the endorsement hearing, even discussing shared law school acquaintances at the conclusion of the meeting.

Nothing wrong with that either, I suppose. Two young attorneys just having a chat, after all.

Where this goes off the rails is with the verbiage Cargas used throughout the interview, and how closely it matches the words written in the editorial. Occasionally it veers off into embarrassment for the paper of record. For example, Cargas -- whose wife is a physician for a hospital in the Texas Medical Center -- said that he would work to bring federal grant money to the Texas Medical Center.

It's a little puzzling that the man who wants to represent the 7th would advocate for issues and organizations outside the district, in this case mostly the 9th. Ted Poe's 2nd and Sheila Jackson Lee's 18th are in fact closer in most respects than is the 7th.

That's not the best screenshot at first glance, but click on it and you can see the district lines for the area. If you prefer to go to the Texas Legislative Council's District Viewer website and select Plan C235 ("Court-ordered interim Congressional map") and scroll and zoom for yourself, go right ahead.

In defense of Cargas, the TMC was drawn into and out of CD07 in the various redistricting gyrations performed by both the Texas Legislature and the federal court a handful of times last spring. It's almost excusable -- not quite, but almost -- that Cargas has his lines crossed. Almost as plausible as he might have a conflict of interest. Irrespective of that, Congress members just don't cross boundaries to take up or oppose causes and concerns in another member's district. That would be like Ted Poe taking on a Jefferson County refinery project, or Ron Paul pushing for Dow Chemical in Brazoria County.

"Hey it's in my district now..."

Maybe Cargas thinks -- or has some inside information -- that the TMC will be drawn back into the 7th in the next year's legislative session. That would be a pretty neat trick for him if it were true, wouldn't it?

It's not. Nobody can say with any certainty whatsoever how the Lege is going to draw the maps in 2013. So Cargas just has his map wrong.

That's incredibly stupid, but it's not lethal.

There is, however, no excuse except laziness or corruption for the newspaper not to know what the district looks like, even if the prospective representative doesn't. Given what has already been revealed here, we can't be certain that journalistic sloth is the only excuse for the Cargas endorsement. There's reasonable doubt, in lawyer parlance. When you have the appearance of Houston's close-to-elites anointing one of their own, it just looks a little skeezy. Especially when it isn't a Republican -- allegedly -- they're endorsing.

Of course I see lots of Republican support for Cargas, camoflaged though it may be. I have certainly seen first-hand Republican smear tactics vigorously exercised by the Cargas campaign.

So if the Democratic members of the establishment want to line up in support of Cargas despite all that... well, now you know what people who do not vote mean when they say "both parties are the same".

Let's go ahead and give Wilburn and Mintz the benefit of the doubt: Cargas' resume', connections, and "experience" probably DO make him look, to them, more qualified to be a Congressional candidate than Ms. Squiers. Like Michael Skelly before him, Cargas is already running to the right in anticipation of attracting the mythological crossover Republicans in November with his "moderate/energy policy/fracking is good" talk.

As I have said a time or two, if that's the kind of Democrat that Democrats think can win against Republicans, in spite of decades of evidence to the contrary, then maybe it is me and not them who is wrong. Maybe it is me who finds himself in increasing disagreement with the philosophy of the majority of candidates the Democratic Party in Texas nominates.

I'm OK with being wrong, in that case.

As for the Chronicle's endorsement, as well as the rest of the Democratic establishment's... hey, take it or leave it. I've already gotten feedback that the newspaper's approval  makes precisely the case I argue: that Cargas is the Corporate Democrat. The representative of, by, and for the 1%. That's simply not the right thing to be in this Occupy-influenced cycle.

But hey, you already know I'm biased. Maybe as much as the Chronicle's editorial board.

My mind is certainly made up. Is yours?

Voting begins Monday morning at these locations. Note the 7-7 and M-F hours, which means you can go before or after work but not next weekend. Finding your precinct's voting place will be confusing on Election Day due to various and unpredictably combined polling places.

So get your runoff vote out of the way early, and kindly consider casting a ballot for the Community Democrat for the 99%, who is opposed by nearly one hundred percent of the 1%.

She knows how to beat a Republican.

Let's keep talking about voter "fraud"

Until some people finally get it. This report was filed back on July 12 by the CBS affiliate in D-FW, though it is Jeremy Desel, a Houston reporter for KHOU, that filed it.


Here also is PolitiFact.

We also asked how many election fraud cases had been referred to the attorney general’s office since 2002. Abbott’s list shows 311 accusations of election fraud spanning 2002-12. The 57 investigations we’re checking represent only those cases that were both prosecuted and resolved.

Six of the prosecutions ended in dismissal or acquittal, Strickland told us by telephone, leaving 51 prosecutions that resulted in convictions.

By our analysis, three-quarters of the cases involved election code violations classified as "illegal voting" -- which includes acts such as voting more than once, impersonating a voter or voting despite ineligibility -- and "method of returning marked ballot," often meaning the defendant was accused of having someone else’s ballot.

Only two cases are described as "voter impersonation" on the list. Whether voter impersonation is a standing problem has been a hot button in the state’s legislative debates over proposed voter ID laws in 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011; Austin American-Statesman news stories say legislators mostly split along party lines, with Democrats claiming impersonation is rare and Republicans claiming the problem is significant. Abbott drew criticism in 2006 for creating a special unit to target voter fraud that by mid-2008 had yielded, according to a May 19, 2008, Associated Press news story, only 26 prosecutions.

Looking at all 57 election fraud prosecutions from 2002 to 2012, we tallied up the resolutions (some had multiple outcomes, when charges were pursued as separate cases):

• Specified as convictions: 26

• Guilty plea resulting in conviction: 2

• Deferred adjudication: 19

• Pre-trial diversion: 10

• Acquitted: 2

Out of more than 39 million votes cast in Texas over the past decade across the state in all elections, the number of convictions for voter impersonation fraud -- between 20 and 60, give or take 2 or 3 according to both links I embedded above and depending on how the term is defined -- represents, according to Desel and the most generous rounding (62/39,000,000), all of .0001%. That's one ten-thousandth of one percent. My calculator drives out .0000015, however.

Chances of winning the MegaMillions lottery: about one in slightly under 176 million. That's much poorer, by the way.
Chances of being struck by lightning: much better; 1 in 576,000
Chances of being killed by lightning (this happened in Houston to two men just last week): one in 2,320,000
Chances of being mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear at the same time: I don't know, ask the e-Trade Baby.

There are many more sightings of Bigfoot in the Lone Star State, and almost exactly as many reported captures of a live one... or a dead one, for that matter. There is a much greater likelihood of your becoming an astronaut, and significanty better odds that you can draw a royal flush on the first hand dealt than find a voter fraud conviction in the state of Texas.

When you say there is no voter fraud -- so small an amount that it is infinitesimal; essentially and statistically 'none' -- taking place in Texas, and your friendly conservative moron says "one is too many", or "we jes' ain't catchin' all the damn Ill Eagles", or "Mickey Mouse and the Dallas Cowboys are registered in Harris County", or "ACORN", be prepared. Keep a few facts to slap their dumb shit down with.

And don't forget to make fun of them for being so stupid.