Texas redistricting case hinges on legal precedent

The case is as cut and dried as the beef jerky at Buccee's.

The U.S. Supreme Court would have to close its eyes to precedent if it agrees with the state of Texas regarding disputed redistricting maps, a voting rights expert said Thursday.

The court will hear arguments Monday on efforts by the state of Texas to stop interim maps drawn by a federal court in San Antonio. The state wants to use maps drawn by the Republican controlled Legislature, which minority and civil rights groups contend discriminate against minorities.

The legislative-drawn maps have not been cleared by the Department of Justice or, alternatively, by a federal court in the District of Columbia. Because the state’s map has not been pre-cleared, it can’t be used for the 2012 election, said Pamela S. Karlan, co-director of the Supreme Court Litigation Clinic at the Stanford Law School. She also made the short list of candidates to replace Supreme Court Justice David Souter when he retired.

[...]

“This case, as a sheer matter of law, is such a straightforward case under the Supreme Court’s existing precedent,” Karlan said in a conference call with reporters. “It’s pretty clear what they have to do here.”

We already know that this Court has a fondness for disregarding precedent, between Bush v. Gore and Citizens United.

The state’s map also has a serious flaw in the congressional district (No. 23) stretching from south San Antonio into far west Texas. The court struck down the drawing of that district in a 2006 ruling when (Supreme Court Justice Anthony) Kennedy said it denied Latinos an opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice.

An expert witness for the state conceded during a trial last fall that the 23rd Congressional district was not a minority-opportunity district, which the law required.

“This time around the state has gone back and done it again – in exactly the same district,” Karlan said, suggesting the replay could have a powerful effect on the court.

“The Supreme Court, for all the other things it doesn’t like, one of the things they really don’t like is when states disregard the Supreme Court’s own decision,” she said. “And the Supreme Court’s decision was Texas had denied Latinos on the border an opportunity to elect candidates of their choice, and now we see Texas doing it again.”

Let's back up in the article and pull out the specific legal precedent the SCOTUS -- more specifically Justice Kennedy -- would have to overturn:

In a 1991 redistricting case (Clark v. Roemer) Kennedy, writing for a unanimous court*, said: “Section 5 requires States to obtain either judicial or administrative preclearance before implementing a voting change… Failure to obtain either judicial or administrative preclearance 'renders the change unenforceable.'”

Simply stated, the State of Texas, Attorney General Greg Abbott, and his hired gun Paul Clement do not have a case ... unless Anthony Kennedy has changed his mind 180 degrees from Clark v. Roemer twenty years ago. *Note in that link that even Justice Antonin Scalia voted in favor. For many reasons, this one among them, it wouldn't be hard to imagine that either man would reverse himself.

And on the chance that Kennedy has changed his mind, that would represent the epitome of a flip-flopping judicial activist. And the only good thing about that outcome is that we won't have to endure Republicans' cries of agony if Kennedy decides to put on the robe emblazoned "I busted up the Voting Rights Act".

Their confidence in this outcome may have been tipped by Abbott's taking a few days off last week from preparing for the case and rolling up to Iowa to campaign for Governor Oops.

The trial begins Monday and will conclude before the end of the month, with a swift decision expected, possibly by January 31st.

Update: Via Michael Li, from Facebook...

The State of Texas keeps hinting in various courts that there are constitutionality problems with section 5 of the Voting Rights Act (the so-called preclearance provisions). However, in Gov. Perry's Virginia ballot access suit, he argues that Virginia's ballot access rules are not legal because (wait for it) they have not been pre-cleared under the Voting Rights Act.

Republicans in turmoil following Iowa

Frank Luntz, one of the guys who tells the Republican party what to say, do, and think, is scared. And speaking about it publicly indicates how scared he is.

At Ron Paul's caucus night event in Ankeny, Iowa, most of his supporters were celebrating. Paul finished a strong third in Tuesday night's caucuses.

But one man in the crowd -- famed Republican strategist Frank Luntz-- was much more concerned with what happens next.

"I think over the next 24 to 48 hours, the campaign's gonna get a little bit meaner, a little darker, and a little bit more personal, as the candidates now fight for their life," said Luntz, who spoke with NPR in between television appearances Tuesday night.

For Luntz, the lack of a clear GOP front-runner will make for a protracted primary season that could drag on through April. And he says it won't be pretty: "Republicans are not gonna like what's about to happen. ... I think a war is about to break out within this primary field."

The Christian conservative elitists -- James Dobson, Donald Wildmon, Gary Bauer and many of the people who organized Rick Perry's Prayerpalooza in Houston last August -- have called an executive session with God to help them pick between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.

A group of movement conservatives has called an emergency meeting in Texas next weekend to find a “consensus” Republican presidential hopeful, POLITICO has learned.

“You and your spouse are cordially invited to a private meeting with national conservative leaders of faith at the ranch of Paul and Nancy Pressler near Brenham, Texas, with the purpose of attempting to unite and to come to a consensus on which Republican presidential candidate or candidates to support, or which not to support,” ...

Following Rick Perry's about-face in spandex yesterday, you have to think he's still under prayerful consideration from the God Squad. It's South Carolina we're talking about, after all. Perry still has $3.5 million to spend, and is just the kind of guy they like in SC. Newt is clearly bitter and wants to take a piece out of Romney. Santorum, the luckiest last man standing before Iowa, is already defensive about his earmarks and his racially-charged statements. Ron Paul is, well, Ron Paul. Nobody in the GOP really cares for the man except for his brainwashed caucus, and it turns out most of them aren't Republicans anyway. He will eventually be excommunicated, but that will take another month or two to finish.

This theory that Mitt Romney loses by winning is plausible. Yesterday the Atlantic made the case, and reading that today you can see how the scenarios have been scrambled again just by Rick Perry's forgetting to drop out (yet). I have no doubt that the folks assembling outside of Houston next weekend convinced Governor Oops to stay in the race long enough for them to figure out what God is telling them.

I need another pallet of popcorn delivered by forklift. How about you?

Spinning class in session

These results can mean anything you want them to mean.

"Thank you Iowa": Those were the first three words of Mitt Romney's planned speech on Tuesday night after the caucuses, according to a photographer who saw the text queued up in the candidate's teleprompter. Minutes before Romney took the stage, his staff took the teleprompter away.

He wanted to claim victory, but couldn't because the outcome was still in doubt (at 11:30 p.m. CT). Mitt eventually did win, however -- by 8 votes out of just over 119,000 cast. Iowa, it turns out, has about three-fourths the electorate of the city of Houston's mayoral contest two months ago.

Considerably less diversity, of course. To say nothing of giving Mayor Parker bragging rights in her own landslide. But back to Cornpocalypse; the media dutifully reported the caucus results with all of the horse race aspects intact ... and as if the results actually meant something of significance.

But Tuesday's close call undermined (Romney's) rise. Even as he earned back much of the vote he won four years ago, Romney failed to grow his base of support, or to elicit much passion from a Republican electorate that has spent much of the last year searching for an alternative candidate.

Perhaps most nerve-wracking for the Romney campaign is that his close finish came even as his GOP rivals largely ignored him in the state, instead training their fire on one another. That free pass won't exist starting Wednesday, as Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have all announced plans to aggressively go after Romney's candidacy.

Ah, there he is: Mr. Frothy Mixture, surging from behind.

"Game on," Santorum said as he took the stage at his victory night celebration in Johnston, Iowa.

"What wins in America are bold ideas, sharp contrasts, and a plan that includes everyone," he said. "A plan that includes everyone across the economic spectrum."

Yes, and it nearly won in Iowa also. Too bad the eight Hawkeyes who had the Santorum Salad at the Pizza Ranch in Boone had a bad taste in their mouths and switched their votes to Romney at the last minute. We'll never know for sure.

Ron Paul's close third continues the dilemma for the Greedy Old Pharts.

"This momentum is going to continue. This movement is going to continue, and we're going to continue scoring, just as we did tonight," Paul told cheering supporters at a hotel in a northern suburb of Des Moines. "We will go on. We will raise the money. And I have no doubt about the volunteers. They will be here."

The libertarian-leaning Paul challenged Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum for the top slot in the leadoff nominating contest, cobbling together an enthusiastic and diverse coalition of college students, veterans and tea party activists in a sign of the divided GOP's struggles ahead.

"There were essentially three winners," Paul told the crowd as it chanted "Doctor Paul, Doctor Paul."

At some point Fox is going to have to start mentioning his name. Maybe have him on a show or two. Ask him some questions. You know, acknowledge his existence.

Meanwhile, Newt plots his comeback. And revenge.

Bruised, battered and defiant, Newt Gingrich limped out of Iowa after a fourth-place finish in the state's Republican presidential contest on Tuesday. But he is still alive.

Hit by plummeting poll numbers in recent days, Gingrich is likely now to hold on until the South Carolina primary on January 21 and hope for the backing of conservatives there.

[...]

Gingrich lashed out at Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, who has been linked to some of the toughest attack ads that toppled the former House of Representatives speaker from the top place in the Iowa polls. (He also) blamed SuperPAC fundraising groups linked to Romney and libertarian Ron Paul for the negative TV ads.

"Together I think we survived the biggest onslaught in the history of the Iowa primary," Gingrich said.

"We aren't going to go out and run nasty ads," Gingrich told supporters after it became clear he had won just 13 percent of the Iowa vote.

"But I do reserve the right to tell the truth. And if the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on (Romney's) record than it is on politics," he said.

"We will have one other great debate and that is whether this party wants a Reagan conservative who helped change Washington in the 1980s ..." Gingrich said.

"Somebody who is into changing Washington or we want a Massachusetts moderate who in fact would be pretty good at managing the decay but has given no evidence in his years in Massachusetts of any ability to change the culture, or change the political structure, or change the government."

One thing is clear; that's more manly talk than than Rick Perry is mumbling.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry said Tuesday that he would head home "to determine whether there is a path forward" for his White House bid after he finished a distant fifth in the Iowa caucuses.

At times pausing to collect his emotions, Perry told supporters that he appreciated their work but that he needed to consider whether there was a viable strategy for him to restart his campaign in South Carolina.

"With the voters' decision tonight in Iowa, I decided to return to Texas, assess the results of tonight's caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race," Perry said, his family standing behind him.

Oh come on, Governor Oops. Have Anita whip you up some fresh brains and you'll be alive and stumbling like a zombie again in no time. I hear South Carolina and Florida actually have weather as nice as Galveston this time of year.

Why even Michele Bachmann has bigger balls than you.

"I believe that I am that true conservative who can and who will defeat Barack Obama in 2012," she said. "What we need is a fearless conservative, one with no compromises on their record on spending on health care, on crony capitalism, on defending America, on standing with our ally Israel."

Shortly before Bachmann spoke, her campaign manager suggested she might leave the race. Asked if he could say with certainty whether she would go forward with her candidacy, Bachmann campaign manager Keith Nahigian told The Associated Press in a telephone interview, "I don't know yet."

You may not know yet, Keith, but The Iron Lady does.

"Over the next few days, just be prepared," Bachmann said. "The pundits and the press will again try to pick the nominee based on tonight's results but there are many more chapters to be written on the path to our party's nomination."

Bachmann, it seems, is surrounded by pussies, some current advisers and some former.

“I feel badly for Michele and her team because she has worked very, very hard,” (former campaign manager Ed Rollins) said. “Unfortunately she may have peaked too soon and at the end of the day she didn’t pass the muster that you need to be seen as a credible candidate. I think if she goes on she will go into debt.”

Rollins said that after the Iowa caucuses, Bachmann’s prospects will grow even dimmer.

“I think to a certain extent, there is no way — she has no organization in New Hampshire,” he said. “South Carolina is toughest politics that we play. And you’re going to have Perry and Gingrich and others fight. She would be better to endorse somebody today. She won’t take my counsel but at the end of the day, don’t go in debt.”

Fight on, Crazy Eyes! Fight on! Show Rick Perry and the rest of those liberal rat bastards what "man up" looks like!

I really don't want it to be over. It's been such a thrill ride, these madcap Republicans and their campaign follies. By this time next week we may only have three or four of 'em to kick around some more.

Update: Alas, the Warrior Queen lays down her sword ... but the Head Figure Head Tweets that it's still on for him.

Update II: Transmogrification of Rick Perry into Farouk Shami is complete.

About (10:30 a.m), after Gov. Rick Perry tweeted, "Here we come South Carolina!!!" my editor asked me to try to confirm the Texas governor's apparent reversal of his plans.

I called Perry spokesman Mark Miner. No answer. I then called Perry press person Catherine Frazier. This time, I somehow was connected, though she didn't say hello. I heard Miner telling her, "He tweeted we're going on to South Carolina. Every reporter in the world is calling."

The line then went dead, and in further calling, I could reach neither spokesperson nor Perry adviser Ray Sullivan.

First Weekly Wrangle of 2012

The Texas Progressive Alliance wishes everyone a happy and prosperous New Year as it brings you the first roundup of 2012.

There were two big redistricting stories last week, and both favored the plaintiffs against Texas and its retrogressive maps. The DC Court issued its decision defining preclearance standards, and the Justice Department filed an amicus brief with SCOTUS arguing it should use the interim maps drawn by the San Antonio court. Off the Kuff has the details on each.

BossKitty at TruthHugger can only laugh at what the GOP has put in the store window this election season: 2012 GOP Lineup and Songs From The 1960s.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson weighs in on redistricting and the Voting Rights Act: Texas Redistricting Round Up.

More Dallas wastewater is headed for Houston, as a project to route more of the Trinity River toward the Bayou City moves forward. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs says that he can't wait to pour a tall glass of Metroplex toilet water.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme screams to the high heavens that Ron Paul is not a principled man.

Neil at Texas Liberal posted about a longtime musician friend looking to form a new protest band in Cincinnati. It's unlikely that anybody in Texas will be able to join this band. But that's not the point. The point is that we all have talents, and we should work hard to make the best use of our talents in the big political year ahead. Don't just sit around and let somebody else generate content for you to consume.

The Lewisville Texan Journal (formerly WhosPlayin) examined TxDOT right-of-way purchases along the I-35E corridor in Denton County, finding that the state was paying much more for properties than the tax roll values. Denton County's Republican County Judge Mary Horn, who is spearheading the effort to expand the road with toll lanes received $993,000 for an investment property she had, which was 19.7 times more than what it was on the tax rolls for.