EV 8/24: Still close

A few states move into the grey tossup column: NV, NH, and FL. IN moves red so the numbers are still an improvement for the Republican. There's no way yet to score the electoral bounce Obama will get by this time next week of McCain's houses gaffe, or the selection of Biden, or just the standard convention bounce -- which McCain will try to limit by announcing his veep on Friday, the day after Obama's outdoor acceptance speech.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Cindy McCain ‘unsure’ how many half-sisters she has

Thanks to Rag Blog for the Andy Borowitz satire (that bites in a hideous way):

Ms. McCain's claims of being an only child were clouded this week by revelations that she has at least two heretofore unmentioned half-sisters, leading to reporters' queries as to whether more undisclosed half-siblings were waiting in the wings.

When a reporter from the Toledo Blade asked Mrs. McCain at a campaign stop in Ohio about how many half-sisters she had, she looked momentarily startled by the question before handing it off to a staff member.

Mrs. McCain's uncertainty about the precise tally of her siblings, coming on the heels of her husband's confusion about the number of the couples' homes, might not be as big a problem for the McCain campaign as some might expect, says Davis Logsdon, professor of economics at the University of Minnesota. "As long as the couple has more homes than half-sisters, they could easily house one of the half-sisters in each of the residences and keep them happy," Dr. Logsdon says. "However, if the number of half-sisters grows faster than the number of homes, that could potentially lead to crowding."

Mrs. McCain actually has only one half-sister, who did not share in the $100-million beer distribution inheritance left to Cindy by her father. The "only child" comments seem to be nothing more than another cruel cut.

Sunday Funnies

Biden

David Brooks, in a rare cogent moment:

Working-Class Roots. Biden is a lunch-bucket Democrat. His father was rich when he was young — played polo, cavorted on yachts, drove luxury cars. But through a series of bad personal and business decisions, he was broke by the time Joe Jr. came along. They lived with their in-laws in Scranton, Pa., then moved to a dingy working-class area in Wilmington, Del. At one point, the elder Biden cleaned boilers during the week and sold pennants and knickknacks at a farmer’s market on the weekends.

His son was raised with a fierce working-class pride — no one is better than anyone else. Once, when Joe Sr. was working for a car dealership, the owner threw a Christmas party for the staff. Just as the dancing was to begin, the owner scattered silver dollars on the floor and watched from above as the mechanics and salesmen scrambled about for them. Joe Sr. quit that job on the spot.

I once worked for somebody like that myself.

Honesty. Biden’s most notorious feature is his mouth. But in his youth, he had a stutter. As a freshman in high school he was exempted from public speaking because of his disability, and was ridiculed by teachers and peers. His nickname was Dash, because of his inability to finish a sentence.

He developed an odd smile as a way to relax his facial muscles (it still shows up while he’s speaking today) and he’s spent his adulthood making up for any comments that may have gone unmade during his youth.

Today, Biden’s conversational style is tiresome to some, but it has one outstanding feature. He is direct. No matter who you are, he tells you exactly what he thinks, before he tells it to you a second, third and fourth time.

Presidents need someone who will be relentlessly direct. Obama, who attracts worshippers, not just staff members, needs that more than most.

While the comparisons to W and Cheney in 2000 are striking, this is one of the most fundamental differences.

Loyalty. Just after Biden was elected to the senate in 1972, his wife, Neilia, and daughter Naomi were killed in a car crash. His career has also been marked by lesser crises. His first presidential run ended in a plagiarism scandal. He nearly died of a brain aneurism.

New administrations are dominated by the young and the arrogant, and benefit from the presence of those who have been through the worst and who have a tinge of perspective. Moreover, there are moments when a president has to go into the cabinet room and announce a decision that nearly everyone else on his team disagrees with. In those moments, he needs a vice president who will provide absolute support. That sort of loyalty comes easiest to people who have been down themselves, and who had to rely on others in their own moments of need.

Experience. When Obama talks about postpartisanship, he talks about a grass-roots movement that will arise and sweep away the old ways of Washington. When John McCain talks about it, he describes a meeting of wise old heads who get together to craft compromises. Obama’s vision is more romantic, but McCain’s is more realistic.

When Biden was a young senator, he was mentored by Hubert Humphrey, Mike Mansfield and the like. He was schooled in senatorial procedure in the days when the Senate was less gridlocked. If Obama hopes to pass energy and health care legislation, he’s going to need someone with that kind of legislative knowledge who can bring the battered old senators together, as in days of yore.

As with Kos, I could have been much happier with a better progressive, but I have forgiven Joe for his bad vote on the bankruptcy bill, and believe this was the best of the remaining options Obama had winnowed.

This settling for the third-best, a-little-too-conservative choice is an early pattern of reaction for me to the coming Obama presidency. I won't be thrilled if the trend continues, I likely won't even be satisfied often, but compared to the blight of the first eight years of the century so far ... it's an improvement.