Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Will the squishy centrists abandon Obama?

No. At least not enough of them to matter. But that doesn't stop Froma Harrop from advancing the false premise. After citing a couple of her friends as evidence, there's this:

The notion that many Clinton voters cannot be easily transferred to Obama contradicts much "expert" opinion. But a Super Tuesday exit poll suggested there is something to it. While 52 percent of Obama's supporters were amenable to a Clinton candidacy, only 49 percent of Clinton voters said they'd be happy with the Illinois senator, according to the survey by Harvard University's Institute of Politics.

A laughably ludicrous interpretation of that poll, considering that the margin of error is great enough to flip it the other way. The actual scientific polling suggests precisely the opposite, in fact: Obama edges McCain while Clinton trails badly. Presumably he does so with a majority of self-described Democratic "moderates". Either that, or he's sweeping independents and conservatives. So with that much faulty thinking it's no wonder she arrives at this conclusion:

What Democrats must understand is that their moderates now have another candidate to consider. And this slice of the electorate is big enough and grumpy enough to swing a general election to John McCain.

No, it isn't. And whatever the amount is, it has already been overcome by the legions of new and mobilized young and minority voters, as well as by conservatives making the switch from Republican primary voter to Democratic. A much more obvious trend verified by actual turnout, if Ms. Harrop had bothered to look at, you know, results of states that have already voted.

Froma, if you want to do a column based on anecdotal evidence then let's hear about the effect of Hillary Clinton at the top of the November ticket on downballot Democrats. Because that evidence is overwhelming.

As for mushy "centrists" and "moderates", Jim Hightower said it best: "There's nothing in the middle of the road but yellow stripes and dead armadillos."

Comandante en Jefe no mas


Regime change is official in Havana:

An ailing Fidel Castro resigned as Cuba's president Tuesday after nearly a half-century in power, saying he will not accept a new term when the new parliament meets Sunday.

(photo inset: Fidel Castro in Houston, April 1959. Courtesy Houston Chronicle.)

"I will not aspire to nor accept -- I repeat, I will not aspire to nor accept -- the post of President of the Council of State and Commander in Chief," read a letter signed by Castro published early Tuesday in the online edition of the Communist Party daily Granma.

The announcement effectively ends the rule of the 81-year-old Castro after almost 50 years, positioning his 76-year-old brother Raul for permanent succession to the presidency. Fidel Castro temporarily ceded his powers to his brother on July 31, 2006, when he announced that he had undergone intestinal surgery.

Since then, the elder Castro has not been seen in public, appearing only sporadically in official photographs and videotapes and publishing dense essays about mostly international themes as his younger brother has consolidated his rule.



Fidel is the same age as my mother-in-law, and both are frail and ailing. Raul is widely rumored to be maricon, though he has a daughter placed in Cuban government. Raul's wife Vilma Espin, who was instrumental in decriminalizing homosexuality in Cuba in 1979, died last June at the age of 77.


Fidel in 1959 in the Sierra Maestro mountains of Cuba.


Oh look, dipwads: a picture of Che. Why don't you call me a socialist?

Monday, February 18, 2008

The Weekly Wrangle

Time for the day-before-early-voting-begins edition of the Texas Progressive Alliance's weekly blog round-up, compiled by Vince from Capitol Annex.

Burnt Orange Report is covering all kinds of races this week. In addition to their notable endorsement of Obama and analysis of how he can win and his presidential primary poll numbers, Matt Glazer has reported that state rep. Kino Flores has some ethics violation troubles even beyond the $50,000 he received from Craddick supporters.

Eye On Williamson has two posts on the upcoming presidential primary in Texas: Why I'm for Barack Obama and Barack can seal the deal in Williamson County. And locally, The silly season is upon us -- the WCGOP machine makes its choice.

TXsharon at Bluedaze, while not a football fan, reports on illegal gifts of Super Bowl tickets to Phil King and Michael Williams. Considering that the most recent pipeline explosion sent flames 600 -700 feet into the air, we need a Railroad Commissioner without a conflict of interest making decisions that will keep Texans safe.

WhosPlayin endorsed Obama for President and Aimlessness thinks Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia needs to go back to law school and get a refresher course on the U.S. Constitution. Talk about your "tortured" logic.

Musings endorses Hillary Clinton for President, citing her toughness, service, compassion, ability to work across the aisle and her solutions-oriented approach to governing as reasons why she is the choice for a new direction in Washington.

The Texas Cloverleaf digs up a report by the GAO that toll road public-private partnerships might not be the best thing for taxpayers. Concurrently, a new state rail system venture is brought back into the public spotlight in Texas.

The Texas Cloverleaf gets its hide chapped when the Dallas Morning News endorses the primary opponent of Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez. The endorsement is destroyed in typical Cloverleaf fashion.

CouldBeTrue at South Texas Chisme wonders if James Leininger is giving up the fight for school vouchers, i.e. destroying public schools in favor a theocratic education. In any case, Leininger is distancing himself from Tom Craddick.

Off the Kuff looks at the yard sign primary in his neighborhood.

Team McBlogger has decided to swim against the tide and endorse Hillary Clinton in the presidential primary. Then they compounded the good decision-making with a trip to the opening of her Texas headquarters in Austin to see Bill Clinton. You know, the guy who's married to the candidate. Apparently a couple of thousand people also had the same idea.

At Half Empty, with John Edwards out of the race, Hal has thrown his support to Barack Obama. And, seething anger, asks this question of the Republican Party of Texas -- who are acting as surrogates for the John Cornyn senatorial campaign: Are you sure you want a dog in this hunt?

After much soul searching, thought and input from great bloggers across the nation, Refinish69 has decided to endorse Obama for President in 2008.

Open Source Dem at Brains and Eggs has 'part two' of "Texas in Play."

BossKitty at BlueBloggin shows us that voting is still a major problem in this country considering Washington DC Has 10,000 mystery voters.

Jaye at Winding Road in Urban Area endorses Hillary Clinton for President.

John Coby's mom is also for Hillary. "I can't remember when our country was in such a horrible situation considering the war in Iraq, our debt, our status in the world. My country is in trouble and I believe Hillary Clinton can begin to solve the problems beginning on day one."

Vince at Capitol Annex notes that Marissa Marquez in House District 77 has been trashing bloggers, and also endorses Hillary Clinton for president.