Saturday, June 29, 2019

The Weekly Twenty Twenty Update, post-debate edition


This one won't be another 'who won, who lost' post that you've surely consumed enough of.  My top ten ranking follows, but it's even more loose than usual because of the fallout from Kamala's third flip-flop on eliminating private insurance companies, Uncle Joe's explanatory presser yesterday afternoon, Beto and Julián's dueling parties in Austin last night, and a lot more shit that will happen today and tomorrow before we get some actual polling on Monday ... that we can promptly throw out the Overton window.

1. Elizabeth Warren


It's a shame for Bernie that she stole them all from him, watered 'em down a little in that capitalistic kinda way, and is pawning them off as originals to gullible Donkeys.


Bernie Lite won't fly.  Berners will accept no substitutes.  And if she can't find a satisfactory answer to the Pocahontas insult, Trump will thump her should she ultimately wind up the nominee.

2. Kamala Harris

While the Birtherism Hydra has raised its foul multi-heads once more against her, the Cop Rocket is falling back to Earth based on her own gaffes and not a false racist smear.


3. Bernie Sanders

Bernie was the same guy he always is Thursday night -- the same guy he has been for fifty freaking years -- and that guy lifts his supporters and enrages those who oppose him.  I have an ominous feeling that the establishment powers are gathering strength to again prevent him from winning the nomination.  I'm #Resisting the paranoia, but the coincidences are too many to ignore.

I really don't want to be right about this.  Things will end badly for everyone if I am.  It is still confounding to me that the Democratic Party cannot execute democracy within their party.

4. Pete Buttigieg

Mayor Pete's debate performance was sound enough for his base to stay in love with, and solicited enough empathy for his racial screw-ups that he won't lose any ground.  In fact, there's already chatter about a Kamala-Pete ticket (heavy fucking sigh).

5. Julián Castro, Cory Booker

JMO but I think that these two winners from Fight Night One have some wind at their backs, enough so that I rate their medium-range prospects ahead of ...

7. Joe Biden


8. Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand

Fair enough performances for both, but not good enough to move up.  Gillibrand lost some style points on others' scorecards for interrupting a lot.

10. Everybody else.

Beto is canceled.  I honestly thought it would be the laughingly ignorant war tax that would end his campaign, but Castro killed it quicker and more mercifully.  Bennet and Swalwell had a few moments but really don't need to be on the stage in July.  Hickenlooper, Delaney, and Ryan can just stop the charade, please.

Inslee was a little too "I'm on the only one on this stage" for Amy K, who deservedly slapped him down on women's reproductive rights.  He's very much on the razor's edge.

I'd like for Tulsi to hang around for her value in pissing off the centrists, and de Blasio (hasta la victoria, siempre!) for comedic worth.  Yang and his Gang are going to continue to be a pain in the neck for some time.

That leaves "Cosmic Sorceress" Marianne Williamson.




Just watch the first two minutes.  That's all I ask.
Posted by at No comments:

Friday, June 28, 2019

TKO

Alternate headline: "My time is up."


Biden's after-debate party doesn't sound like it was much fun, either (two more Tweets in the thread below, and a reply from Biden's deputy campaign manager).


So other than that, Mrs. Lincoln ... ?

#PassTheTorchJoe seems proper (all kudos to Eric Swalwell).


Although once Gropey Joe gets last rites, Swalwell and the Sanders haters will start using it on Bernie.  #LetYangSpeak is not the right hashtag.

Anyway ...

Joe Biden has been running for president on the idea that he’s the best equipped to beat Donald Trump. Tonight’s debate shed considerable doubt on that premise. If this is how he performs against his opponents on the same side of the aisle – clinging desperately to the legacy of an administration he didn’t lead – then how do we think he’ll fare against the most talented bully in American politics?

Other candidates performed impressively. Bernie Sanders had the clearest ideas on how to improve the lives of people in this country and take on vested interests hoarding wealth and power. But Kamala Harris delivered the night’s and possibly the cycle’s most powerful moment when she challenged Biden on his history of supporting racist policies and politicians. In response, he got as defensive as a grandfather going up against his kids at a Thanksgiving table, taking pains to clarify precisely which type of desegregation he opposed in the 1970s. America deserves better.

Kamala joins Julián and maybe Booker as the underdog winners of Round One.  Harris and Warren, obviously, stand to gain the most -- followed by Bernie -- once it dawns on people that old Uncle Joe is just not up to the job.  I think Castro and Cory move up to replace the plummeting O'Rourke.
 
Buttigieg will soldier on a while longer because he is well-liked despite his glaring inexperience; Gabbard for similar and yet different reasons (higher negatives among centrists, for starters).  The fates of Gillibrand and Klobuchar, second-tier candidates who met expectations, are yet to be written.

The biggest losers beside Biden and Beto?  The two on each far side, both Wednesday and Thursday evening.  Culling this crowd down to six on two nights would be much better for everybody.  And then Jay Inslee can organize a climate change debate for the also-rans.

I'll do my Weekly Update later, possibly tomorrow, in order for the spinning to slow down and the dust to settle and maybe an early poll that reveals something.
Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Fight Night 2 (The A-Team)


From left, the roster (onstage, not in the picture above) is:

  • Author and activist Marianne Williamson
  • Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper
  • Entrepreneur Andrew Yang
  • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden
  • Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
  • California Sen. Kamala Harris
  • New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet
  • California Rep. Eric Swalwell

Due to the luck of the draw, this is effectively the marquee night for the debate -- with frontrunner Biden, second-place Sanders, and tied-for-fourth-place Harris and Buttigieg all onstage.

And all eyes will be on Biden. He’s certainly no stranger to the format; his first presidential debate was 32 years ago, and he was in several more during his 2007 campaign, as well as general election vice presidential debates in 2008 and 2012. Still, for the clear frontrunner, the pressure will be on, and his rivals will be sure to pounce on any misstep.

Sanders, for instance, will have an opportunity to make the case that his vision for the presidency would be far different -- he wants a political revolution, whereas Biden emphatically does not. Harris and Buttigieg, too, could argue that new leadership is needed for the party. But it’s not clear just how aggressive these candidates will be in attacking Biden; they could decide it’s a mistake to go too negative this early.

The two Democratic candidates without experience in political office will also be onstage on this night. Williamson, an author who has written on spirituality, has recently tried to backtrack from comments she made criticizing vaccines. Meanwhile, entrepreneur Yang will tout his plan for a universal basic income of $1,000 a month.

With most of the top-polling contenders as well as Williamson and Yang on this night, it may be more difficult for the other politicians onstage -- Gillibrand, Bennet, Hickenlooper, and Swalwell -- to stand out.

Like last night, I will put down the phone and step away from the laptop and just let the experience wash over me without feeling the urge to interact with a second, small screen.  Old school, '90's style, not so much sifting and sorting of wheat from Twitter chaff.

Seems to give me a clearer perspective for the morning-after take.
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)