Last night's results, tonight's debate

Vox has the most straightforward report on last night's returns: Trump wins Kentucky and Louisiana, Cruz wins Maine and Kansas.  Sanders wins Nebraska and Kansas, Clinton wins Louisiana.  Rubio and Kasich falter everywhere, and Trump calls on Rubio to drop out.

“Marco had a very, very bad night. I would call for him to drop out,” Trump said at an event in West Palm Beach, Florida. 

He went on: “I would love to be able to take on Ted one on one. That would be so much fun, because Ted can't win New York, he can't win New Jersey, he can't win Pennsylvania, he can't win California. I want Ted one on one, OK?"

Rubio is closing on Trump in Florida, which votes on March 15, so that's not going to happen unless he loses to Drumpf in his home state (and then Rubio will quit the next day).  There will be one more GOP debate between now and then, on March 10 in Miami.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will debate this evening in Flint, MI and appear at a town hall forum tomorrow night hosted by Fox.  Expect the former secretary of state to be asked questions about Libya and about her e-mails.  Michigan (and Mississippi) vote on Tuesday, March 8 and Clinton still has a big lead in the polls.  On Thursday Wednesday March 9, she and Bernie will debate again, also in Miami.

Next week's events -- tonight through next Thursday evening -- will culminate what has been a furious month in the two leagues' championship semifinals.  In nine days, we'll know whether we have a Clinton-Trump fall classic, or something else.

In other developments ... Godwin's Law no longer applies.

Donald Trump makes members of his Orlando crowd raise their right hands and swear to vote in the primary. pic.twitter.com/EVenRilJrV

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) March 5, 2016

Trump supporters have also been read quotes from Adolph Hitler, and thought they were Trump's words.  We've crossed the Rubicon, y'all.

More Democratic voters seem to be looking for the exits.  Hillarians still seem confused as to why, and they're lashing out again at Sandernistas.  The fault lines are cracking further open, even as some former Democrats move over to Trump.

For these reasons, it’s clear that progressives should be wary of arguments that recessions or financial crises lead to opportunities for progressive policymaking. Rather, they foster exactly the sort of divisiveness that strengthens right-wing movements, at least for whites. For all the talk of “the working class” supporting Trump, few pundits have noted that the working class is increasingly diverse. The idea that economic peril alone creates Trump support is belied by the fact that working-class people of color aren’t flocking to Trump. The reason so many liberal and moderate whites are flocking toward Trump is simple: racism.

"Working class", indeed, is not a racial demographic.  It is in fact exactly what socialism in historical context is all about.  But that won't stop Clinton's people from calling Sanders' folks racist.

Sunday Funnies

Is Democratic turnout up or down?

Charles Kuffner has the numbers that indicate local turnout is just fine in historical context, even if the 2016 Blue Team scoreboard is about half the Republicans'.  In the national analysis, a few poli-sci profs have been quoted in recent days as saying there's nothing for Dems to worry about.  Two links for your deeper dive, one from NPR and one from AMERICAblog, with the abridged version being "competitive primaries increase participation and uncompetitive ones don't'.  One pull-quote:

These circumstances tell us a lot about why turnout is what it is in the parties’ respective primaries, but they tell us very, very little about what voter turnout will look like in a Trump/Clinton general election. A more telling predictor is the fact that the general election is likely to be polarized to epic proportions, which on balance has been shown to increase turnout, among other forms of political participation. The causal story for this jives with everything we know about rational political behavior: When voters perceive a greater difference between two candidates, there are greater benefits and costs associated with the outcome of the election. This increases the incentive to cast a ballot for one candidate or the other.

That's all reasonable enough.  I still contend that a universe of Americans where about half the population is not registered to vote, and the other half don't show up at the polls on a regular basis isn't very healthy for democracy, but none of the system's players really care about that or intend to do anything about it.

The duopoly and its enablers in the corporate media would rather see everyone quarreling over the personalities involved; not so much the actual policies.  That is, until they tire of that.

Markos “Kos” Moulitsas, founder of the Daily Kos, a popular liberal web site, wrote a blogpost on Friday asking the site’s community of writers, readers and commenters to begin moderating their criticism of Clinton starting on March 15, in the likely event that Clinton solidifies her hold on the nomination with additional primary wins. 

If Sanders does not turn the tide, Moulitsas wrote, “then on March 15 this site officially transitions to General Election footing. That means, we will focus our attention not just on Donald Trump or his rivals, but also on the Senate, the House, and state-level races.” 

Markos tipped this shot across the bow earlier in the week when he called people who suggested that Hillary was winning primaries in states she would lose in the general election "dicks".  Kos has, throughout his rise to (alleged) Democratic pre-eminence, often arbitrated disputes, brokered agreements, and made official pronouncements and declarations of this type.

Moulitsas went on to lay out specific guidelines for talking about Clinton if she becomes the nominee. 

He distinguishes, for example, between “constructive criticism” of Clinton from a progressive perspective, and using “right-wing tropes” to attack her. He even prohibits liberal-themed name calling, like saying “she’s a sell-out corporatist whore oligarch.” 

Writers and commenters who violate the rules will make themselves eligible to be banned from the site.

Online Democrats, for those unfamiliar, are significantly more Caucasian, older, and progressive -- not the Clinton definition, the actual one -- than Democratic primary voters (in others words, Berners).  So this "get on the bandwagon or GTFO" deadline is being met with considerable derision.  I spend more time at the other place where Democrats hang out online, Depleted Uranium, and I can testify that there's been a serious cleaving of the Sanders camp from the Clintonites.

The powers that be at DK and DU (they can read the ominous Clinton GE polling, too) are trying to stitch up the wounds that the primary battle has blasted open before they face wholesale desertion among the partisan, straight-ticket-voting ranks.  If you don't frequent either of those two websites, you've surely seen the same dynamic play itself out on Facebook and Twitter.  It's also rational to start enforcing this command now because, left to fester, the intramural snipe fest will continue to endanger Clinton's inevitable march to the White House.

If this sounds like sheepdogging, it's more like herding cats.  Still, the fence-mending needs to start happening or else the low turnout (yes, it is) will indeed be exacerbated by the lingering resentment of the Sandernistas, and they very well might defect to the Greens ... or return to electoral apathy.

We'll have to watch this development and see if the cuts are too deep or if some scabs grow over them in time for November.  Almost nine months; you can make a baby in that time, from "Netflix and chill" all the way to DOB.

No bets taken on whether it will be a boy or a girl until later this summer.

Update: Kuff also posts and links to the Texas Observer's article that I interpret as another portent of low Democratic turnout in the fall.

Wheels come flying off for GOP in Detroit

From a frat house food fight to a porno shoot in just one week.  It's really not that much devolution if you take it in context.

Polls. Head to head. Flexibility. Hands. Strong core. Little Marco. This is all just a very bad porno. #GOPDebate

— Liz del Carmen (@LizMartinezG) March 4, 2016

See?  Size does matter in context.  But offensive and defensive penile length comparisons weren't -- for those watching closely -- the most gross thing we saw last night.

Also proof that Ted Cruz is made of polystyrene foam https://t.co/mNb4S5MD2W

— Ben (@rebenjamint) March 4, 2016

I don't think it was spittle; it looked firmer and larger than that.  It certainly wasn't a booger.  It could have been a piece of breath mint or even a chip of tooth.  Whatever it was, it eventually went back to where it came from.

I can never unsee this pic.twitter.com/jx0uApPsNM

— Sarah Parnass (@WordsOfSarah) March 4, 2016

Closer views, more spot analysis, and Zapruder-film-like GIFs at many links.

What little policy was discussed was completely overwhelmed by the insults.  I thought it was much, much worse than last week's takeoff on the Three Stooges.

The Three Stoopids
My morning project, in honor of last Thursday night's absurdities...
Posted by Carol Rosenthal on Friday, February 26, 2016

But truth to tell: all of these Republican debates have left me both highly entertained and completely exhausted.  Some people think Herr Drumpf has been dinged by the Cuban double-team, or by his own too-small hand.  I thought that was the case four months ago, but his endurance has proven me wrong.  The three slowly-receding challengers are falling in line, and it won't be long before their armies do the same.  Since The Donald won't #ReleaseTheTranscripts of the conversations with the New York Times regarding what he really thinks about immigration, he's still on the rails to victory.

The topic of climate change never came up, and the quality of Flint's water was only mentioned briefly enough for Rubio to defend Gov. Rick Snyder.  There was some foreign policy discussed, but it also had the air of a George Carlin schtick about missiles and bombs and penis size.

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton debate on Sunday and Michiganders vote on Tuesday.  Recent polling reveals Trump and Clinton with solid leads.