The thirteen (or so) holdouts on the public option

TPM:

Two crucial questions hang over the Senate. Will it pass Democrat-only health care reforms? And can a public option survive the whims of the so-called budget reconciliation process? If the answer to both questions is yes, then the public option could survive in the stasis-oriented upper chamber. But if the answer to the second question is "no," then the Democrats will a lot of whipping to do.

Go read the article. Here's how I think it goes (today):

The ayes will ultimately include Warner of VA, Tester of MN, Pryor of AR, and Begich of AK for a total of 51. Add Nelson of FL as a likely yes.

The nays will be Landrieu of LA, Lieberman of CT, Bayh of IN, Lincoln of AR, Nelson of NE, and most all of the rest of those assholes, including Baucus and Conrad.

Even with 99 senators the headcount necessary to suspend debate, i.e. end a Republican filibuster, remains 60. Only if the number of Senators "duly chosen and sworn" becomes 98 would the three-fifths majority needed be reduced to 59.

So the real question is whether some of the nays will vote for cloture. This is why the eventual Massachusetts appointee, and how long it takes to get that person 'chosen' and sworn, is important also. And whether there will be public outcry sufficient to force one or two members of the GOP to relent on their blockage of healthcare reform.

In short, the final battle remains in the hands of the people.

Update: Since I prepared most of this post on Wednesday, Chris Bowers of Open Left today has revised his whip count and observes that no Democratic senator has specifically stated opposition to the public option. Since Lieberman isn't a Democrat -- that is not hyperbole; he is both technically and obviously an independent -- he doesn't count. Besides Republican Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine, the most confirmed fence-sitters are those Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee: Max Baucus, Tom Carper, Kent Conrad, Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, and Ron Wyden. Because, as Bowers notes ...

(T)hose Senators are still in a position to pass a bill out of that committee without a public option, while Senators not on the Finance Committee are not. If you are in a position to avoid a vote on the public option ever happening, then simply saying you will not vote against a public option isn't good enough(.)

Toons honoring Teddy

Hank Gilbert for Governor

The second highest vote-getting Democrat from the 2006 elections, agriculture commissioner nominee Hank Gilbert, said Wednesday he plans to join the fight for his party's gubernatorial nomination.

Gilbert, 49, a Tyler-area rancher, received 42 percent of the vote in his race against Republican Todd Staples for agriculture commissioner.

In the current governor's race, Gilbert said he can bridge the gap between Democrats and moderate Republicans who are “disgusted” with incumbent Rick Perry's service. Gilbert said he does not believe U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison can defeat Perry in the GOP primary.

He changed his mind about running for agriculture commissioner after hearing Tom Schieffer speak at the East Texas Democratic Summit. (If you have heard both men speak then you know how effin' funny that is.)

Gilbert's entry into the race became another potential stumbling block for Fort Worth businessman Tom Schieffer, who received endorsements Wednesday from some of the top state House Democratic leaders.

They included Reps. Garnet Coleman and Jessica Farrar of Houston, Jim Dunnam of Waco, and Pete Gallego of Alpine. The group said Schieffer will be able to govern the state by bringing Democrats and Republicans together.

Like Rachel, I think that this endorsement announcement was poorly timed -- it came yesterday when the news cycle was devoted to the passing of Ted Kennedy, and it was a lousy attempt to step on Gilbert's announcement (which occurred before Kennedy's death) -- and not particularly well-thought-out. Why exactly would the Texas House leadership feel the need to endorse Schieffer yesterday? It smacks of old-school patronage, something I hoped at least some of those people weren't so susceptible to.

So now Texas Democrats have Schieffer, Gilbert, Mark Thompson, and likely Kinky Friedman and Felix Alvarado running for governor. Barbara Radnofsky has announced for attorney general, and Jeff Weems is running for the Texas Railroad Commission. Who's going to run for lieutenant governor? Comptroller? GLO? Ag commish? State supreme court?

C'mon people; it's a week before Labor Day weekend and we need some brave souls to step up and take on the Republican monolith. I realize that recruiting candidates is the state party chairman's job (and we all know what a fabulous job he's doing). And certainly that massive recruiting effort will translate into significant support once the campaign for 2010 is in full swing ...

Still, if this is another cycle where the so-called insiders focus solely on a couple of Texas House races with the hope of retaking that chamber ... good luck with that. That will really motivate the base.

Update: Take note of Selby's speculation.

Update II: Kinky's getting in. Official announcement next week.

Last Week's Wrangle

Coming a little later than usual here due to offline impositions previously mentioned. Here is this week's roundup of blog highlights.

From TXsharon at Bluedaze, EPA testing has now confirmed wells are contaminated with various substances connected with gas drilling--proof that hydraulic fracturing contaminates our drinking water. Even Motley Fool supports the FRAC Act and says industry is "crying wolf."

Should Texans care about NJ? The Texas Cloverleaf examines why the GOP thinks we should.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme says a 'Wise Latina' kicks Republican butt once again.

For a long time it has been universally agreed upon that people should engage in end-of-life planning, at least until right-wing pundits made such discussions a target of their battle against health care reform. Xanthippas at Three Wise Men takes aim at these critics, and the very real harm they do to people with their dishonest and partisan attacks.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson shows why everyone must call their House representatives and senators because It's time to treat America's health care emergency.

Off the Kuff spent the week following the Sharon Keller trial. He wasn't impressed by her defense.

Over at TexasKaos, jaxpagan gets us the scoop on Ted Poe's town hall meeting in a funeral parlor. Snark , with a wicked point!

At McBlogger, Harry Balczak takes a few moments to tell us what he thinks about Whole Foods and its 'health care for all' hating CEO.

Neil at Texas Liberal is back from a two-week vacation that took him to Chicago, Kenosha, Wisconsin, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Dayton, Ohio and northern Kentucky. This itinerary is consistent with a post he made earlier this summer encouraging folks to visit the industrial midwest. With vacation over, it's time now to think of school and swine flu. It sure would help if more working people had paid sick days to help manage getting sick themselves and having kids sick at home.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston has some questions to ask Congressman Pete Olson at his town hall mtg on Aug 29.

Some of the very worst of Texas was on full display last week, and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs documented the atrocities.

BossKitty at TruthHugger is still appalled at the chaos and conflict demonstrated by a Bi-Polar America trying to decide Who is Worthy of a Healthy Life and Who is Not.