Sunday, November 03, 2019

Sunday Falling Back Funnies










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Friday, November 01, 2019

The Weekly Twenty Twenty Update *Updated

*Updates, including Warren's M4A plan and analyses as well as Beto's withdrawal and more, appear with leading bold text below.

The impeachment of Trump is coming to a boil.


The House of Representatives voted 232-196 Thursday morning to approve a resolution laying out how public impeachment hearings will be conducted on “whether sufficient grounds exist for the House of Representatives to exercise its Constitutional power to impeach Donald John Trump, President of the United States of America.”

Americans are divided.

The poll finds that 49 percent of Americans say the president should be impeached and removed from office, while 47 percent say he should not. That finding is almost identical to support for impeachment in a poll by The Post and the Schar School taken earlier in October.

So are Texans.

Not quite half of Texas registered voters agree that “Congress is justified in conducting impeachment investigations into actions Donald Trump has taken while president,” according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Almost as many -- 42% -- disagree with that statement. Republican and Democratic voters are predictably partisan in their responses, while independent voters are more likely than not to say the investigations are merited: 46% agree, while 32% do not.

So as Trump says: "We'll see what happens".

In Joe Biden news:

-- Leading in the polling but lagging in fundraising, Uncle Joe has decided to start taking Super PAC money.  It's being organized by some of his best friends.

In an effort to revive Biden’s prospects, prominent supporters of the former vice president are mobilizing to establish a Super PAC, a bid that the Biden campaign appeared to endorse on Thursday, according to a report in Bloomberg. The move represents a reversal from earlier this year, when Biden rejected support from Super PACs, which can receive unlimited donations from corporations or individuals.

Though Biden has pledged not to take contributions from registered lobbyists, the prohibition appears not to apply to big-dollar organizers of his Super PAC. Among the individuals involved with the effort are several lobbyists for leading corporations and foreign governments.

Longtime Biden supporter Larry Rasky, one of the people involved with the big-money effort, is the founder of lobbying firm Rasky Partners, which is currently registered to lobby on behalf of Raytheon, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, and the Republic of Azerbaijan, among other clients.

Steve Schale, a former Obama campaign strategist, is a registered state lobbyist with Cardenas Partners, a Florida lobbying firm founded by former Jeb Bush adviser Al Cardenas. Schale’s current client list includes the Florida Hospital Association, JetBlue Airways, State Farm Insurance, Walt Disney Parks, AT&T, and the Associated Industries of Florida.

As The Intercept has reported, despite Biden’s promise to reject lobbyist money, his campaign launched with a fundraiser hosted at the home of Comcast’s chief lobbyist, and his political action committee has a long record of accepting lobbyist cash.

Rasky, Schale, and the Biden campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Rasky Partners lists a number of successful client campaigns on its website, touting efforts to win congressional support for banks and defense contractors. Disclosures show that the firm was previously retained for communications services to the Education Finance Council, a lobby group for student loan companies.

[...]

Bernard Schwartz, a wealthy financier who has organized dinners with prominent centrist Democrats in order to prevent Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., from gaining the Democratic nomination, is reportedly in talks to fund the new Super PAC. Schwartz is known for deep-pocketed donations. In 2016 alone, Schwartz, through his foundation, gave $1 million to Third Way, a centrist group backed by corporate donors that has vigorously opposed Medicare for All and other ideas centered on tackling economic inequality.

-- And his surrogates are already telling us that Biden is likely to be defeated, badly, in Iowa.

Joe Biden risks a humiliating third- or fourth-place finish in Iowa early next year, according to nearly a dozen senior Democrats in the state who attribute the prospect to what they see as a poorly organized operation that has failed to engage with voters and party leaders.

With fewer than 100 days until the Feb. 3 caucuses, Biden is failing to spend the time with small groups of voters and party officials that Iowans expect and his campaign’s outreach has been largely ineffective, according to 11 senior Democrats in the state. That could send Biden to a crippling loss behind Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, who have highly organized campaigns in Iowa, said the Democrats, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign.

Warren has been having her own troubles since the debate.

-- Why isn't she more popular in Massachusetts?

A very good explainer of her rise to the Senate in the Bay State.

-- Warren's ambiguity on healthcare comes with some side effects:

"I was a little surprised recently that she came out in favor of a Medicare for All plan," said Tom McGarity, who taught law school with Warren at the University of Texas in the early 1980s and is a fan of her candidacy. "My guess is as the campaign continues, she'll refine that to some extent."

"It's a very expensive proposition, and it's not well defined. One thing about Liz is, at least politically, usually before she comes out with something ... she defines it better," he added.

The Warren campaign has not responded to questions about whether she could eventually compromise on the issue.

It is not uncommon to meet die-hard Warren supporters who are lukewarm about Medicare for All.

Recent polling from NPR member station WBUR finds that Warren is the most popular candidate in her home state of Massachusetts, but her idea of Medicare for All is not. "Medicare for All Who Want It" is a more popular option.

"I'm not sure that Medicare for All is the correct answer. I think a hybrid is perhaps a better answer," said Kimberly Winick, a former law school research assistant for Elizabeth Warren and a strong supporter of Warren's candidacy.

[...]

"I also know down the road if it becomes implausible, impractical, impossible to do those things, she'll consider alternatives," (Winick) said. "And she will think clearly about alternatives, she won't pretend facts don't exist."

Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid espoused a similar thinking recently in a podcast interview with David Axelrod, a former strategist for President Obama. Reid, in an attempt to defend Warren from criticism that she's "too far left," gave the impression that Warren is not as committed to Medicare for All as she has suggested.

He said he advised Warren that strengthening Obamacare is the best plan for now, and a public option is "as good as Medicare for all, anyways."

"That's not what she's saying though," Axelrod responded.

"You give her some time," Reid said. "I think she's not in love with that, you'll wait and see how that all turns out."

"So you think she's more pragmatic?" Axelrod asked.

"Oh, I know she's pragmatic, just wait," Reid insisted.

But pragmatism is not what Warren has been selling on the campaign trail. She often ends her stump speech with a promise to "dream big" and "fight hard."

It's not clear how much wiggle room -- if any -- Warren has on the substance of Medicare for All. But health care consultant Chris Jennings thinks she has a little bit more negotiating space than some of her rivals.

"Her fan base, her voters, will give her more credit for trying to go as far as she possibly can on this issue, and then when, and if, she has to trim it back a bit, she'll have more room for compromise than many other candidates will," said Jennings. "And I say that because she's viewed as a fighter, she won't compromise just to compromise, she'll compromise to get something done."

There is no room for compromise on Medicare for All.  Every one of these so-called experts understands the concept of risk pools.  It works in a very similar way to herd immunization.  You simply cannot avoid the implementation of a drastic improvement for all people because you are too cowardly to face the potential political consequences.  It's as stupid as saying "it costs too much", or "how will we pay for it".  Bernie Sanders did it right.

Any compromise in Medicare for All means people will continue to die and go bankrupt because they cannot afford medical treatment.

Update: Warren's plan to pay for M4A, released this morning and as this post was published, is a hit with leading activist Ady Barkan.  It certainly blows up the doubters quoted above.


In my opinion, a ten-year transition period is too long.  I prefer Bernie's 2-4 year conversion.

Update: And others have analyzed her plan and found it falling short.

Lambert Strether of Corrente via Naked Capitalism:

Krugman and CAP are, of course, fair game. But criticizing Ady Barkan -- has Joe Biden met with him yet? -- is a bit like kicking a puppy. So let me say gently that Warren’s “plan”-- how I hate that “plan” has become politically charged -- is hardly a “codex of wisdom,” and that Sanders’ approach to the “pay for” issue lacks disadvantages that Warren’s plan has, and has advantages that Warren’s plan lacks. So I’ll skip the hot takes (Ezra Klein, Politico, Yglesias) and jump right to Warren: “Ending the Stranglehold of Health Care Costs on American Families“. 

Deep economics dive follows.  Also Matt Bruenig at Jacobin.

-- The 'Wall Street is afraid of Warren' myth is blown up.

Warren is a longtime critic of the financial industry, and she has made her fair share of enemies among some of its major players. There has been a litany of stories in recent months -- including one I wrote -- quoting finance executives and bankers on how disastrous they believe a Warren presidency would be: Deciding between Donald Trump and Warren is a “decision between sickness and death.” Major Wall Street Democratic donors will sit the election out. Warren is the one candidate who is “toxic for the business community.”

But not everyone on Wall Street hates her. In fact, there are plenty of people who believe the idea of Warren in the White House sounds pretty good. And it’s not a grudging acceptance of her worldview but instead genuine support for it.

[...]

I spoke with more than three dozen people from across the financial sector -- professionals who work at hedge funds, big banks, and private equity funds, in asset management, financial advice, investment banking, trading, research, and compliance -- who support Warren’s presidential bid. They know if she lands in the White House that may make their jobs a bit different, their companies a little less lucrative, or mean they’ll pay more in taxes. And they think that’s great. They support Warren because of her policies, not in spite of them.

Warren is Bernie-lite.  Everybody knows it.  Especially those of us who support Tio Bernie.

-- But it's Boot EdgeEdge who's been the worst on the topic of healthcare.

Responding to criticism of his vague health care policies in early 2018, Buttigieg “declared” on Twitter that, “Most affirmatively and indubitably, unto the ages…I do favor Medicare for All.”

Later, as he entered the Democratic presidential primary, he landed on a kind of compromise: a single-player option he likes to call “Medicare for All Who Want It” that lets him show support for those frustrated by the high costs and substandard results of the American health care system while preserving the profit-driven forces that have contributed to that system.

Now, as he continues to promote his plan, which critics call “Medicare for Some,” he’s taken an antagonistic approach to true Medicare for All, as proposed in the Medicare for All Act, and to his opponents who support it: Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.), who “wrote the damn bill,” and frontrunner Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who is cosponsoring and continues to support it.

In a new digital video ad from Buttigieg’s campaign, corporate consultant and former Facebook executive Joe Lockhart says, “Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren believe that we have to force ourselves into Medicare for All, where private insurance is abolished.” Lockhart cofounded Glover Park Group, a corporate consulting and lobbying firm with current and recent clients in the health sector including ​Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Horizon Therapeutics, Intuitive Surgical, and Sanofi U.S.

Pharmaceutical, health insurance, and hospital industry donors have flocked to Mayor Pete all year. As of mid-2019, he was second only to Donald Trump in overall campaign cash from donors in the health sector. Among Democratic candidates, he was second to former Vice President Joe Biden in terms of pharmaceutical and health insurance donations.

This guy makes me vomit.


Black voters will abandon the Democratic Party in droves if he is anywhere near the ticket.


-- As Kamala Harris has slumped, her voters have migrated to Warren.


Harris has cut staff, slashed the salaries of those still on the payroll, and is restructuring what remains of her sinking campaign.


-- Tulsi Gabbard has not only survived the Hillary Clinton attacks, she has thrived.


Hillary Clinton’s suggestion this past week that Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is being “groomed” by Russians to act as a spoiler in the 2020 race may have had the opposite effect of what the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee intended: It’s elevated Gabbard’s candidacy and may have inspired even more ardent interest in her campaign among Clinton critics.

On Saturday, Gabbard found fans among the many Clinton skeptics across Iowa, where Clinton barely won the 2016 Democratic caucuses against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

“What is this horrible thing that Hillary said about you?” one person asked Gabbard at a house party in West Branch.

Gabbard turned me into a critic with her off-the-wall positions over the past few months, but I'm even less a fan of Barack Obama, and Gabbard's "can't we all just be nice to each other" bit in support of Obama's finger-wagging of those that are 'woke' has worsened my opinion of her.


And let me remind everyone: Obama sucks.


-- Amy Klobuchar, shithole Bill Maher's favorite, is also an extremist.


-- Julián Castro made his number, so he'll stay in.


-- Update: But Beto will not.


After all I have blogged about him over the past couple of years, very little of it positive, his campaign deserves a more appropriate farewell from this corner.

O'Rourke found his voice after the carnage in his home town.  He took courageous stands, was harshly criticized for them, gave effusive praise to his competitors like Bernie and Tulsi, and in these last few months revealed himself as a man of great character.

He says he will not bid for the US Senate against John Cornyn, and despite his track record of saying he won't run for things (like president, for example) and then doing so, I'll take him at his word.  I would, however, anticipate that he would be the challenger to Greg Abbott for governor in 2022.

-- Update: Green Party front-runner Howie Hawkins secured the nomination of the Socialist Party USA.  Here's the Indy Pol Report's post, and a Q&A with Hawkins and his campaign team.


-- And as reported in last week's Update, Don Blankenship has made his Constitution Party presidential bid official.


-- I saved the best for last.


John Harwood: You identify as a democratic socialist. You got the endorsement of Representative Ocasio-Cortez over the weekend. How far do you think you can take the United States of America toward democratic socialism?

Bernie Sanders: It depends on what we mean by democratic socialism. What I am trying to do, in many ways, is pick up where Franklin Delano Roosevelt left off. In a not widely publicized State of The Union speech he gave in 1944, this is what he said in so many words: “We have political rights. You have freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of religion. All of that’s great, but what we don’t have are guaranteed economic rights.”

So you could vote, but you also have the privilege of sleeping out on the street. You can protest, but you also have the freedom to work 60 or 70 hours a week at starvation wages. You have the freedom not to have health insurance, not to be able to send your kids to college. What I’m trying to do in this campaign is say that economic rights must be considered as human rights.

John Harwood: Do you also embrace the part of FDR that said adversaries hate me and I welcome their hatred?

Bernie Sanders: Absolutely. You can judge a person by the friends they have. You can judge a candidate for president by the enemies they have.

There was a guy who was head of Third Way, the corporate wing of the Democratic Party. He said, “Bernie Sanders is an existential threat to the Democratic Party.” I agree with him. I am. I want to convert the Democratic Party, to break its dependency on big money and corporate interests, and make it a party of working-class people, of young people, of all people who believe in justice.
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Monday, October 28, 2019

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance encourages you to enjoy Halloween -- and to be sure you vote -- as it brings you this week's roundup of the best lefty blogs, Tweets, and news from around and about the Lone Star State from the past week.


Despite the toppling of the Republican leader of the Texas House, the work of the Texas Legislature (unfortunately) goes on.  Kuff bid adieu to soon-to-be-former Speaker Dennis Bonnen, brought low by his dumb decision to trust Michael Quinn Sullivan and his own trash mouth.

(Bonnen) will be the first Speaker to serve only a single term since Price Daniel (D) in 1973-75. Ironically, Daniel also lost the support of his political base during the interim following what was widely viewed as a successful legislative session. In Daniel’s case, it was a right-to-work compromise with conservatives during a failed constitutional convention and a falling out with organized labor, which Daniel blamed for the convention’s failure. However, Daniel had pledged to serve only one term as Speaker, so his political miscalculation did not cost him the gavel.




TXElects has more election news.

HD36: Mission insurance agent Abraham Padron re-established his campaign committee for a potential Democratic primary rematch against Rep. Sergio Muñoz Jr. (D-Mission). Padron spent nearly $400K on an unsuccessful 2016 primary challenge, losing to Muñoz, 60%-40%.

HD76 open: El Paso council member Claudia Ordaz Perez announced she would seek the seat being vacated by Rep. Cesar Blanco (D-El Paso), who is running to succeed the retiring Sen. Jose Rodriguez (D-El Paso). By announcing, Ordaz Perez has resigned her council seat, though she will continue to serve until a successor is chosen in a special election.

Ordaz Perez won a four-way 2014 special election outright (65%) before being elected to a full term in 2015 (73%). She was re-elected in 2018 (72%). Just eight of the 45 precincts comprising HD76 are located within Ordaz Perez’s council district, representing about 18% of votes cast in HD76 in the 2018 general election. She faces Elisa Tamayo, a former aide to Blanco who has been endorsed by most of the El Paso legislative delegation.

HD126: Houston petroleum field service technician Pete Salas established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Sam Harless (R-Spring) as a Libertarian.

HD25 open: Angleton attorney and council member Cody Vasut announced he would seek the seat being vacated by Speaker Dennis Bonnen (R-Angleton). Lake Jackson nurse Rhonda Seth is already in the race.

HD138: Harris Co. Dept. of Education board member and former State Republican Executive Committee member Josh Flynn, son of Rep. Dan Flynn (R-Van), re-established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Rep. Dwayne Bohac (R-Houston). Flynn was elected to the county school board in 2018 (50.3%). We previously reported that Josh Flynn was “very interested” in the race.

As Houston's municipal elections head for the finish line, PDiddie at Brains and Eggs posted P-Slates 1 (mayor and at-large), 2 (district city council), and 3 (state constitutional amendments).




There was yet another shooting in Texas over the weekend, at a Halloween/homecoming party attended by college-aged students in the northeastern region of the state.

Two people were killed and 12 others injured when a gunman opened fire at an off-campus college party in Texas.

Authorities are searching for the gunman in the shooting that happened around midnight Saturday. They believe he may have been targeting just one person at the party of about 750 people outside Greenville, some 15 miles from Texas A&M University-Commerce.

Authorities had originally said two people were killed and 14 others were injured, but later revised that figure.

A spokesman for the Hunt County Sheriff’s Office says the injured included six people who were trampled or hurt by glass in the melee.

More shooting broke out at a memorial for one of those who died.

The vigil took place Sunday night at a park in Dallas. Local media outlets say attendees and reporters on hand for the event took cover. Multiple gunshots can be heard in video posted by one reporter. There were no immediate reports of injuries, but the vehicle for one station was struck by bullets.

It’s unclear how many people were shooting.

Family members told local media that the vigil was being held for 23-year-old Kevin Berry Jr. of Dallas.

As the Democratic presidential primary seems to be in a state of flux, G. Elliott Morris examines the value of 2020 general election polls at this point in the cycle.  PDiddie wasn't the only one that noticed the Clinton wing of shitty liberals completely lost their minds.


In the race to replace John Cornyn in the US Senate, the Texas Signal hosted a forum with six of the candidates.  Here's their Q&A with Sema Hernandez.


Sanford Nowlin at the San Antonio Current noted Cornyn's latest deep dive up Trump's ass.


Nonsequiteuse, on Twitter, reviews the Astros' front office debacle.


The Daily Texan decries UT's lack of action against professors who have been accused of sexual misconduct with students.



In Austin, at the Texas Book Festival:


SocraticGadfly did his alt-history schtick again and imagines a world that never had American Indians indigenous Americans.

The TPA congratulates Noah Horwitz -- as Noah congratulated himself -- for passing the bar exam.

And the TPA celebrated the life of Houston activist C. J. Yeoman.


Last, to observe the season of scary things, Asher Elbein of the Texas Observer visited one of the most haunted towns in Texas, Jefferson.  Its nostalgia tourism these days elides the complicated history of East Texas racism.


And Nicholas Frank at the Rivard Report writes about the update given Centro Cultural Aztlan’s Día de los Muertos celebration this coming weekend.

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Sunday, October 27, 2019

Sunday Spooky Funnies








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Friday, October 25, 2019

The Weekly 2020 Update: Shitlibs lost their minds

It's truly been a lousy week to be an establishment Democrat.


But as bad as all that was, things got worse.


A few days ago, after Hillary Clinton projectile-vomited at Tulsi Gabbard and Jill Stein, #TulsiIsARussianAsset was a trend.  This despite the fact that Gabbard holds the rank of major in the Hawaii Army National Guard and serves on both the House Armed Services Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which means she likely holds one of the highest security clearances available to any American.

It is not only ludicrous but defamatory -- and I would hope libelous -- for anyone to question Gabbard's patriotism in so vile a manner.  This sort of smear has been modus operandi toward Jill Stein for several years, as everyone knows.  And just when we thought the fever had broken ... this morning, after Gabbard announced she would not seek re-election to her Congressional seat, #TulsiStein becomes a trending topic.

I have plenty of issues with Gabbard now after previously being a supporter earlier this year.  But Gabbard has said repeatedly she won't go third party, and many states have 'sore loser' laws preventing that anyway.  Let me suggest that Hillary Clinton allowing her rumor mill to to expel some foul grist that she might run for president next year is a greater threat to Democratic hopes of winning the White House than anything else that could possibly occur.

If Clinton actually does run (and I don't think she is masochistic enough to do so; Hillary is more of a sadist, after all) her votes deny front-runner No Dough Biden and/or No Plan For That Yet Warren the nomination.  This would be a godsend for my candidate.  She does not take one single vote away from Bernie Sanders.  So maybe I ought to be cheering for her to throw her big fat hat in.

Sorry, no can do.  It's just a scam for people to buy her book.  But if you'd like to go see her tonight at U of H and maybe ask her, tickets are $38.  She's over before she gets started anyway.


There were plenty of other items to blog about, namely:

-- Why the polling leader fails to draw any crowds to his (very infrequent) rallies, or raise any money, such that he has to break his promise and start looking at organizing a SuperPAC;

-- Why the other polling leader still cannot answer how she is going fund her healthcare proposal, and that it may be weeks before she can;

-- The guy that the establishment hates drew 30,000 to a rally last weekend, raised $600,000 in the hours before, during, and after (average contribution $15), and released a plan to legalize cannabis and expunge the criminal records of those convicted of possessing it ... at 4:20 p.m. yesterday;

-- Some guy dropped out;

(Before you say, "That's Michael Bennet", click and read the thread.  It's worth it.)

-- And I'm sure something obnoxious was said and done by Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, but I just don't care to link to it.

Not to be outdone in this regard, there's also an escalation of the infighting among Green Party presidential candidates.


And maybe the name 'Don Blankenship' rings a bell for you.  If not, here you go.

The Constitution Party’s national committee held a meeting in Pittsburgh, PA on October 18-19, 2019. One of the speakers was Don Blankenship, former CEO of Massey Energy Company, the sixth largest coal company in the nation. Blankenship told the group that he will seek the party’s presidential nomination next year. He was the party’s nominee for U.S. Senate in West Virginia in 2018, but he was unable to get on the ballot because of the “sore loser” law.

Blankenship is currently suing Donald Trump, Jr., for libel. Trump Jr. had tweeted that Blankenship is an ex-felon, but Blankenship was never convicted of a felony. He was convicted of a misdemeanor in 2016 involving mine safety rules. The libel case is in U.S. District Court in West Virginia, Blankenship v Trump, Jr., s.d., 2:19cv-549. His lawsuit recently survived a motion to dismiss. A trial is set for October 6, 2020.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019

P Slate: Texas Constitutional Amendments

I perhaps made this post more difficult on myself than it needed to be.

First, the League of Women Voters has the comprehensive guide.

  1. Municipal Judges
  2. Assistance for Water Projects in Distressed Areas
  3. Tax Relief for Disaster Areas
  4. Personal Income Tax
  5. Sporting Goods Tax to Support State Parks
  6. Cancer Prevention & Research
  7. Funding Public Education 
  8. Flood Control
  9. Tax Exemption of Precious Metals
  10. Law Enforcement Animals

A couple of organizations have weighed in with their recommendations; among them:

 -- Progress Texas (Yes on 2, 3, 5, 8, and 10; No on 1, 4, 6, and 9, with a toss-up on 7).

-- Harris County Democrats:


I will vote Yes on 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, and 10.  I will vote No on 4, 6, and 9.

Prop 6 is a no for me not because I think cancer should go unfunded but because CPRIT has been wasted and abused by both Rick Perry and Greg Abbott, and there is little good that will come from giving the governor extra billions of dollars to play favorites with (on his best day).  Let's begin the process of allowing capitalism, especially healthcare capitalism, to pull itself up by its bootstraps rather than rely on handouts from the government.

(See how crappy that sounds?  Don't worry; corporations aren't people.)
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More P Slate

I'll give these Houston council suggestions for your voting consideration a similar treatment as I did earlier, adding a prediction as to how our Bayou City leadership may tilt -- left or right -- following their (that is to say, my projected) outcomes.


I'm listing in bold the names of the Democrats for whom I would vote if I lived in the district.

With respect to the city controller race, Chris Brown is now taking seriously the challenge from Orlando Sanchez, and his own ethics kerfuffle may dent his prospects, but I still feel it's about turnout, and specifically Latinx turnout, that will either hurt him or not.

Prediction: Brown should be able to hang on to Sylvester Turner's coattails and return to his office on Bagby, but if the World Series, the weather, or disinterest in these elections dampens Democratic turnout, he could be in trouble.

District A: ... is for Amy Peck, who's been waiting to take a seat downtown for a long time.  She will be replacing her boss, Brenda Stardig, and whether she is an improvement, conservatively speaking, or not ... I leave to the insiders.

District B:  I believe Tarsha Jackson has punched a ticket to the runoff, with the TOP organizers out in force working the precincts for her.  The Chron picked her over the many solid candidates in the running here.  And with the most money raised, spent, and left to spend, I'll guess that Renee Jefferson Smith joins her.

Prediction: A smooth transition from longtime CM Jerry Davis to either woman -- or one of the others -- should benefit the district.

District C:  I would still mark this one Abbie Kamin and/or Shelley Kennedy from the left and Mary Jane Smith or Greg Meyers from the right, though Daphne Scarbrough has raised some money and may have some input on the outcome.

Prediction: There will be one Democrat and one Republican in the runoff to replace Ellen Cohen.

District D:  Brad 'Scarface' Johnson and one other to December.

Prediction: CM Dwight Boykins, about to have some extra time on his hands and about as conservative an African American Democrat as they come, may have some influence on who wins this race next month.  Maybe the district isn't ready for Jordan.  If anybody wants to give me some feedback off the record, you know how to reach me.

District E:  Dave Martin.

Prediction: The seat is safely conservative for another term.

District F:  As unpredictable as ever.  Tiffany Thomas and Giang "John" Nguyen (party affiliation undetermined by primary voting history) have a little bit of money to spend.  Richard Nguyen, the former council member, and Van Huynh, the COS to the current one, are likely best known to consistent voters.  But handicapping the race without inside intelligence is impossible.

Prediction: A runoff.

District G:  Incumbent Greg Travis will slide back in.

Prediction: Bizness as usual.

District H:  Blogger nonsequiteuse has discovered that incumbent Karla Cisneros has been "hoping" against the I-45 expansion while taking money from its developers.  That's reason enough for those who are opposed to the massive rebuilding project to vote for Isabel Longoria.  (Ejecting a Moron Campos client just for his shitty blog would be reason enough for me, but YMMV.)

Prediction: I suppose we'll see.  I hope Cisneros is jammed into a runoff.

District I:  Incumbent Robert Gallegos looks to be in good shape.

Prediction: He's about as progressive as Houston city council allows.

District J:  Edward Pollard has had the highest visibility among these.  Without some some inside skinny, though, it could still go to one of Nelvin Adriatico, Freddie Cuellar, or Sandra Rodriguez, all of them Democrats who've raised a little money and worked at getting elected.

Prediction: Maybe a runoff with one of the Dems and the one conservative, Barry Curtis.  Maybe not.  It will be difficult to replace Mike Laster's progressive voice on Council.

District K:  My CM, Martha Castex-Tatum, is also safe.

Prediction: She's done a good job after taking over for the late Larry Green.

Even if Council adds a few Democrats in these alphabet district contests, it may not get more liberal, much less progressive.  The best hope for that lies in the At  Large races, where defeating Knox and Kubosh and replacing Christie offer the best chance for improvement.

And yes, my view on constitutional amendments is still in the pipeline.  Check the Twitter feed at the top-right hand column for everybody else's POV; I'll offer mine shortly.
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