Sunday Funnies

SCOTUS will rule on marriage equality this year

But as Hair Balls points out: will Texans just have to cool their jets until then?

Last week, when the federal Fifth Circuit appeals court heard oral arguments regarding gay marriage bans in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, things looked promising for advocates of marriage equality.  [...]

Both (plaintiffs' attorney Neel) Lane and the State of Texas had already asked the Fifth Circuit to rule, regardless of whether or not the Supreme Court decided to hear a gay-marriage case - "It is the only thing we agree with the state on," Lane says. If the Fifth Circuit does come down with a ruling in favor of gay marriage, it's unclear whether Texas' new attorney general, Ken Paxton, would try to further delay things by appealing the case to the Fifth Circuit's full 15-judge panel.

Nevertheless, Lane believes that the Fifth Circuit judges' questions last Friday indicate their willingness to lift the current stay that's kept Texas' gay-marriage ban in place. If the Fifth decides not to punt, there's the very real possibility that Texas could see gay marriages before the Supreme Court takes up the issue.

"The question is whether the Fifth Circuit will rule on the three cases before it, knowing that the Supreme Court is likely to give a definitive answer by June," Lane told us. "I hope the Fifth Circuit will rule rather than wait, because my clients have waited long enough for their rights to be recognized."

I'm skeptimistic.  I think much of that is a pile of BS waiting for Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick and the worst conservatives in the state legislature to roll around in, smear on their faces and all over each other, and generally continue to further embarrass the state of Texas in the eyes of the nation.

So I'll prognosticate a worst-case scenario and hope that any better outcome will happen.

To begin, my anonymous legal eagle has (fairly safely) predicted a 2-1 Fifth Circuit decision, with Higginbotham and Graves in the majority and Jerry Smith writing some harshly-worded minority rebuke.  My source similarly thought that ruling wouldn't come down for several months.  With this Supreme Court development, I would be surprised if the appeals panel waited until the summer; I'll fashion that they now move up their deadline.  As Michael Barajas of Hair Balls intimates, this opens the door to AG Paxton busting his move, which the full Fifth takes and then rushes to some conclusion ahead of the Supremes, probably an unfavorable one for marriage equality.  If the Supreme Court favors the plaintiffs and legalizes gay marriage -- not a silly guess at all -- then you've got an opening for Abbott to call the Lege into special session, with a charge to outlaw it in Texas on some convoluted application of the theory of nullification.

And yet another years-long court battle.

Update: More than a couple of lawyer-types have indicated that the Fifth Circuit is is likely not to issue a decision en banc before the SCOTUS rules (if that happens in June) due to the historical snail's pace at which these things move through the courts.  I welcome additional input that improves the nightmare described above.

If you really want to be disheartened, then read this speculative legal analysis behind why the Supremes took on these cases: because the reworked questions and their narrow framing might enable them -- most specifically, Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy-- to vote to criminalize gay marriage.  Update: And take this as encouragement that Kennedy is the fifth vote to legalize.  And yes, this as well.

The past 15 weeks have shown, time and time again, that a majority of the Supreme Court is not only ready for, but has been preparing the country for, a decision enforcing nationwide protection of same-sex couples’ right to marry.

Paranoia aside and if the high court rules in favor of marriage equality, I cannot see the governor, the attorney general, Dan Patrick and the Lege just lying down and 'getting it crammed down their throats'... as conservatives enjoy saying so much.

All this while HERO's jury trial comes to a head.  It's going to a tempestuous year for the 'mophobes.  That much is the only certainty.  Via Charles, this Buzzfeed post is best for all of the SCOTUS details.

Just vote progressive in 2016 (and 2015)

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, blahblahblah.

Will she or won't she?  Only her hairdresser knows for sure, I suppose.  I remain of the opinion that these relentless entreaties to get her to jump in, mostly being made by MoveOn.org but also others, are just sad to watch.

As for Bernie, he's narrowed his own options down to 'not running'.  And don't worry, Democrats; the Greens still have essentially nobody.  The Libertarians might be set for some fun, though.

But it's really up to the Republicans to provide the next two years of entertainment, and thankfully they aren't disappointing us.  That will continue to be a target-rich environment for a snarky blogger, but I'll keep efforting to limit my contributions to the 140-characters-or less-variety, occasionally seen in the column to your right.

I'm going to try to keep the focus on H-Town politics for the year, as there is so much news breaking that some of it will go national.  The only thing you need to remember to do -- besides vote, that is -- is to vote for the most liberal candidates and issues on your ballot this year (and next, please).  Toss out the labels.  Which is what they want you to do anyway, seeing as how it's supposed to be non-partisan and all.

We don''t need annnny more conservatives down at City Hall.  That goes for conservative, pro-business, mushy-middle moderate Democrats as well.  With the tiny number of Houstonians historically participating in city elections, with the well-motivated right-wing freaks in the 'burbs excluded by geography but not by activism, we need all progressives on deck.  Houston cannot be allowed to devolve by apathy into Lubbock.

Gun goons invade Capitol, threaten state rep in his office

An already-well-documented atrocity by many others, here's the video and the Houston Press account.

A video posted by Kory Watkins, a member of Open Carry Tarrant County, shows gun activists confronting State Rep. Poncho Nevarez, a Democrat from Eagle Pass, in his capitol office Tuesday. The crew of gun-rights supporters was apparently shopping a bill filed by GOP Rep. Jonathan Stickland, which, if passed, would allow Texans to openly carry handguns without even obtaining a license.

This type of deliberately confrontational behavior -- over guns, on the first day of the legislative session -- is even more sobering when you consider it's actually easier to get into the State Capitol with a concealed carry license than without one (no line, no metal detector, no routine security check for concealed carriers).

Just imagine the scene if some black or brown people had done something like this.  The Lege has responded, moving quickly toward some safe-guarding of their members, which will hopefully be in place before the next brazen stunt that threatens to spin out of control into violence.

These Open Carry Tarrant County thugs (mugshots of two of the perps at this link) are at odds with the Open Carry Texas contingent in tactics but not in goal.

According to the Dallas Morning News, Open Carry Texas leader CJ Grisham condemned Open Carry Tarrant County on Facebook and Twitter. “I am so pissed at the actions of people today inside the Capitol. Totally counterproductive and unprofessional."

“I mean, it’s the first day of the Legislature, we are this close to getting open carry passed, and now these guys want to come and manufacture a firearm on the steps of the Capitol? I just don’t get it.”

That helps, but not if Rep. Stickland keeps throwing gas on the fire, as he did right before this standoff occurred.

"With your help, we are going to storm this Capitol and quit getting on our knees and asking for the Second Amendment back," Stickland told the armed crowd gathered Tuesday. "We are going to take it back."

Shannon Watts of Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America had the best analysis.

“This divide within the open carry groups right now in Texas seems like an easy way for some of these bills to seem more ‘reasonable’, said Watts. “Moms are here to make sure these attempts do not go unchecked, we remember the threats and intimidation, and we will not sit idle and let this sort of behavior become acceptable.”

Earlier this week members of the Texas chapter of (MDAfGSiA) visited 175 offices in the state legislature with cookies and strollers in tow to introduce themselves and discuss common-sense gun legislation and the chapter’s opposition to expanding open carry in Texas.

The bill is going to pass, gun nuts.  Take your toys -- the ones that compensate for your shortcomings, inadequacy, and self-confidence -- and go home so that cooler (big) heads can calm this situation down enough for you to get what you want.  Threats and intimidation simply aren't good PR moves for an inexorable gun activist movement.

We'd like to avoid any Newtowns, Auroras, and/or Charlie Hebdos from you.  Thanks in advance.

Update: Texas Leftist has this.

As this legislature gets rolling, let’s hope that they remember one thing about guns.  If you pass an Open Carry law for Texas, you pass it for everyone.  All the panic buttons in the world won’t change that.  It’s time for Texans to unite for common-sense policies, and say no to a Big Government legislature that would force all of us to be less safe.

Rick Perry's Texas Miracle is leaving with him

You can't really blame the guy for being stupid enough to run for president again after his 2012 debacle.  That was just a one-off; he's been crazy lucky all his life, after all.  But the circumstances surrounding the state's economic winning streak are not being extended to his successor.

“This is going to be a painful period of time,” explained Texas Governor Rick Perry. The oil price plunge is going to make things “very uncomfortable” in the oil patch of Texas. There would be “a bit of belt-tightening in places,” and some areas would “have to make some changes,” he said.

His speech to a conservative forum on Friday in Austin made one thing clear: for Texas, the largest oil-producing state in the nation, the oil bust won’t be easy, even if seen from the perennially optimistic point of view of a politician.

Some oil companies are starting to lay people off, some are are already going bankrupt.

Yet, even as capital expenditures are getting slashed brutally, companies have not lowered their production forecasts.

And they won’t, at least not for a while; they’ll keep pumping at the maximum rate possible, especially now that revenues from unhedged production have been plunging – while the costs of servicing their mountains of debt have remained the same, and rolling over that debt has become a lot more expensive. Cutting back on exploration, drilling, and completion stems the cash outflow, but it doesn’t cut production, not until the decline rates of existing shale wells start making a visible dent into it.

The market price of oil hasn't touched bottom yet.

Analysts say that richer (OPEC) cartel members like the United Arab Emirates have been ready to accept the price fall in the hope that it will force higher-cost shale producers out of the market.

"We cannot continue to be protecting a certain price," UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said. "We have seen the oversupply, coming primarily from shale oil, and that needed to be corrected," he told participants in the Gulf Intelligence UAE Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi.

Oil prices continued their slide towards six-year lows in Asian trade on Tuesday after Brent crude closed below $50 a barrel the previous day for the first time since April 2009. 

The fall came after Wall Street investment titan Goldman Sachs slashed its price outlook, adding to anxiety about global oversupply, weak demand and soft growth in the key Chinese and European markets.

One more from that Goldman report.

One such estimate for future crude oil prices became available Monday, predicting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices of $39 and $65 a barrel in the next six and 12 months, respectively. Brent crude prices will fall to $43 in the next six months and rise to $70 by the end of the next 12 months.

So the reason this is important to Texas is because Jethro Bodine, Counter of Beans, is predicting something similar in his biennial state revenue forecast, upon which all spending decisions by the incoming legislature will be made.

Comptroller Glenn Hegar is forecasting that Texas lawmakers will have about $18 billion in new or carried over state revenue to spend in the next two-year budget...

A big part of Hegar’s comparatively optimistic forecast: He estimates the price of West Texas intermediate, the benchmark for oil in commodity markets, will be $64.50 in fiscal 2015 and $69.25 the following year. That’s a slow but steady rebound from current prices.

So if he (and Goldman Sachs and everybody else) just happens to be wrong about that, then Texas' books are cooked.  Sid Miller's cupcakes are going to be in a pickle and Dan Patrick's plans to cut property taxes will turn into a big pot of stew for him to steam in.  Oh, and the governor-elect's ideas about spending more money on road and highway improvements go off into the ditch as well.

A sustained period of $40 dollar oil is going to crush the hardhats in the oil patch, eventually catch some petroleum engineers in its undertow, wreck the state's finances, and maybe even screw up the political futures of a few Texas Republicans along the way.  So keep your fingers and toes crossed that the sheikhs are bluffing, and that WTI will rebound just as soon as all those TeaBaggers in the sticks buy a few more big SUVs and new Ford pickups.

I suppose the truly desperate among us could pray for a refinery explosion or two, maybe another terrorist attack, or a wider war in the Middle East to disrupt production.  Oversupply being what it is, when Mitch McConnell is kneeling over the Keystone XL pipeline with a wrench, you know things are already bad.

Socratic Gadfly has more.  Update: And so does Charles, but without mentioning much about the future price of crude's impacts.  And Lisa Gray has this.

If you've lived in Houston long, you recognize this moment: the haunting, suspended-in-motion months when we all know that the city's roller-coaster economy has entered a dive, but while we still hope that maybe it won't be bad, that maybe Texas is diversified now, that maybe OPEC or Libya or something — anything — will change.

Sure, there've been oil-related layoffs here and there, and sure, people are asking questions about loans and banks and the risks that frackers have assumed. But with oil under $50 a barrel, Houston remains eerily normal. We see the car crash coming, but haven't felt the impact; the ball, thrown in the air, slows at the top of its arc; the hurricane might still change its path.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is girding its loins for what is likely to be an ugly legislative session as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff highlights the ongoing voting rights dispute in Pasadena by showing how fallacious the city's argument for changing to a hybrid At Large/district model for its City Council is.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos and Daily Kos has heard whispers about the possibility of accepting federally expanded Medicaid in Texas. She wonders how can this be sold to far right wingers like Dan Patrick and the tea party ultra conservatives. If expanded will Medicaid be called Jesus Care or Koch Care?

As the 84th Texas Legislature prepares to convene, PDiddie at Brains and Eggs says, "Kansas-sippi here we come!"

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants to know what the difference is between Henry Cuellar and the Republicans who kiss Wall Street ass-ets? Really? Is there any difference?

Neil at Neil Aquino.com likes how the 1976 Walter Matthau movie Bad News Bears takes a swipe at liberalism.

Burnt Orange Report took note of the Longview News-Journal's recent op-eds on the upcoming legislative session.

After a holiday hiatus, Texpate rounded up some of the latest goings-on at Houston City Hall.

Dos Centavos gave us the heads-up on the Americans United program next month called "The Bible in Texas Schools? Why Not?"

And Texas Vox is looking for people to work with Public Citizen for the legislative session.

=====================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Somervell County Salon notes that AGTX-elect Ken Paxton took the baton from Greg Abbott and immediately stepped on the line.

Juanita Jean took a poke at state Rep. Cecil Bell, and his mean-spirited bill to punish courthouse workers who might issue marriage licenses for gay couples in Texas.

Durrell Douglas tells Oprah why their movement will have no "leaders".

Carol Morgan is dreading Tuesday in Austin, as the Lege kicks off with an educational reverse Robin Hood for the wealthy and other bad bills.

Socratic Gadfly has an update on the Dallas Morning News' continuing stumbles in digital marketing.

Prairie Weather caught the $40 billion dollar gift to 'homeland security' (i.e. local police) from Congressional Republicans.

Unfair Park is not a fan of the Jerry Jones-Chris Christie bromance.

The Lunch Tray interviews USDA Under-Secretary Kevin Concannon.

Texans Together examines the elements of an effective pre-K program.

The TSTA blog reminds the Legislature that its obligation is to public, not private, education.

Better Texas Blog has a cheat sheet for the biennial revenue estimate.

jobsanger is still waiting for the GOP to come up with a rationale for the Keystone XL pipeline that isn't based upon lies.

And an activist with the Texas Tar Sands Blockade is suing the Wood County sheriff's department after being tortured while in their custody.  Yes, tortured.

Bonus Sunday Funny for Cowboys fans

And also those of the Oregon Ducks.

Sunday Funnies

Walker, Tosa Ranger vs. The Outlaw Jersey Whale

Showdown at the Lambeau-K Corral.  Thanks to capper at Crooks and Liars, and also at Cognitive Dissidence.

In Green Bay, Wisconsin, the wind chill is a biting 30 below zero and there is plenty of snow on the ground. However, as the Green Bay Packers are getting ready to host (and defeat) the Dallas Cowboys this weekend, things are heating up in the smash-mouth political football game known as the 2016 GOP presidential primary.

When the Cowboys come to Lambeau Field, they will be probably bringing along their biggest - and I do mean biggest - fan, Chris Christie, otherwise known as the Outlaw Jersey Whale.

He's paying his own way to the game tomorrow.

But even Bridgegate wasn't enough for Christie's insatiable appetite, so he got himself tied up in yet another scandal, (facing) yet another possible investigation for taking gifts from Cowboys owner, Jerry Jones, after allowing the Port Authority enter into a business relationship with Jones.

But Christie isn't going to be throwing his weight around Green Bay without a challenge. He's going to be on the turf of Scott Walker, Tosa Ranger, aka Desperado.  

Everybody know where the 'Tosa' comes from?  See, it has only a little to do with Chuck Norris (who probably still prefers another governor for president).  Okay then.

Walker is the only governor to be a person of interest in not just one, but two, John Doe investigations. Six of Walker's aides and friends have already been convicted of illegal politicking, embezzling money from a veterans fund and other sordid affairs and more than a score of others have been granted immunity for their testimony. The only reason Walker has escaped the long arm of the law is the millions of dollars of dark money thrown at his legal defense cooperation fund.

Walker, like Christie, thinks he should be president. Or at least the voices in his head that he mistakes for God are telling him he should be governor.

Walker believes this so much that he has rehired a consultant with experience running national campaigns while he is busy explaining that he doesn't really need a college degree to be president, as long as he can follow orders from the Koch Brothers, Sheldon Adelson and the Bradley Foundation.

I'm surprised that Rick Perry hasn't tried to oops his way in on this action, but he's probably busy eating corndogs in Iowa.  It should be a real tough battle on the frozen tundra, especially if Jerrah isn't bringing the refs from last week.

Please, don't anyone tell Walker that the Green Bay Packers are a communist collective, and that the NFL is a socialist enterprise.  We don't want him to choke on his cheddar until after he's eliminated from 2016 presidential contention.

Kansas-sippi here we come

"We have a mandate to cut property taxes."

It was a pledge Dan Patrick made over and over as he asked Texans to let him lead the state legislature as Lt. Governor. But that was before the Lone Star State's flow of surplus dollars started sliding with the tumbling price of crude.

In Austin, less than a week from the start of the legislative session, the Republican from Houston made his intentions clear - property tax relief is still coming.

"I say we have to protect the people first. The best way in a downturn to keep your economy rolling is to put more money in people's pockets," said Patrick.

"The people want us to pass a conservative budget that includes significant funding for property tax and business tax cuts and we will accomplish that," he again pledged.

Just how taxes will cut be has yet to be determined. Already on the legislative table is an increase in the "homestead' exemption as well as a rate rollback which caps the amount local Texas governments can raise levies.

The lieutenant governor's fantasies aside, you have a dirt farmer now as state comptroller, so of course it makes sense to do whatever your shriveled little heart desires and let the hell for it be paid by someone else.

We caught up with John Palmer at a meeting of the West University senior council and confirmed that retired folks on limited income are watching the issue closely. He says for himself and many others his age, saving enough for the annual property tax bill is a growing burden.

"Retired folks on limited income" who live in places like West U.  That IS the demographic of the vast majority of those who voted in 2014, after all.  (Which is to say: those who live in neighborhoods with median incomes of more than $200,000, and those who think they will someday soon, but who currently live in trailers and ramblers in the suburbs.)

"I would encourage him to dig his heels in. He said a lot and he needs to put up or explain why he can't put up and deliver on his first big major issue as an elected Lt. Governor," said Palmer. "I hope they can live up to it, but I also hope on the school issue that they somehow we don't let that fall off the table and take care of that too," he added.

State lawmakers will have to preserve billions to fund a more equal method of paying for public education. State Senator-elect Paul Bettencourt tells Fox 26 $3-4 billion will likely be available for tax relief.

Oh yeah, schools.

There are three things (Gov.-elect Greg) Abbott said could be accomplished this session: first, Abbott said Texans should “expect some form of tax relief”. Second, there should be a greater-than-expected investment in transportation beyond the recently approved Constitutional amendment to provide more highway dollars. Abbott said legislators should end diversions and dedicating sales taxes from vehicle purchases to transportation.

Third, Abbott wants to improve education. He wants parents to have more options regarding school choice and give educators more options to ensure students are prepared for college or to enter a career.

Ah, school choice vouchers.  Like 'enhanced interrogation techniques', there's a reason why everybody has been coached to use the new terminology.

...(Nobody) is half as excited as Sen. Donna Campbell (R-New Braunfels) telling the press about her hottest prospect for the new session, filed just yesterday: Senate Bill 276, “Relating to state savings and government efficiency achieved through a taxpayer savings grant program administered by the comptroller of public accounts.”

In a word: vouchers.

Or, as Campbell suggested today: “universal school choice,” because “voucher” suggested a golden ticket in limited supply. Her plan is unlimited.

Two years ago, it was then-Sen. Dan Patrick who delivered an enthusiastic pitch for vouchers just before the session’s start. Today, with Patrick in the lieutenant governor’s office, it was Campbell’s turn to beam about the miracles school choice will bring, to help us forget how decisively the Legislature has rejected vouchers in the past, and inject her voice with a little extra gravity as she describes our “moral obligation” to spend public money on private schools.

Her plan was simple: parents who move their kids from public to private schools get a tuition reimbursement of up to 60 percent of the state’s average payout—for classroom operations, but not facilities funding—for each public school student. Campbell and new Attorney General Ken Paxton offered the same proposal in 2013; back then, the maximum grant would be $5,000. In five years, the Legislative Budget Board estimated, the program would save the state $1.1 billion.

She spoke quickly—too fast to catch it all—as she related the miracles in store for a Texas that embraces school choice. “It will turn poor performing schools into better schools,” Campbell said. “It will equalize the playing fields. … It will improve our economy. … It decreases the number of dropouts. It improves the graduation rates.”

Many of these are familiar arguments for school choice, but then there’s so much more. At some point, standing there circled around the podium, you had to stop and wonder, where’s she getting this stuff?

The answer was in a booklet on a table beside her, a new 43-page literature review produced for the Texas Public Policy Foundation and the Texas Association of Business, written by the man standing next to her: Art Laffer, namesake of the “Laffer curve”—an economic model often wielded as a cudgel against higher taxes—who hugged Campbell at the podium and called her a hero.

“There’s not one thing that isn’t improved by charters and choice,” Laffer explained.

Here's more on vouchers from a more reliable source.  You don't think these Republican snake handlers are selling their oil a little too hard, do you?  I mean for promising gold-plated unicorns at the end of the rainbow?  It's not like there isn't a huge pile of money waiting to be claimed; it's that they are too ignorant to take it.  Note that nobody is going to try to teach these pigs in the Lege to sing, either.

Passage of (Medicaid expansion) could bring in an estimated $66 billion in federal funding over 10 years, as well as about $35 billion in "secondary benefits," such as new jobs and health care savings as a result of more people gaining coverage, according to the report.

(Task force adviser Dr. Kenneth) Shine said the health-care industry, government officials and business organizations, including chambers of commerce, "are in favor of Texas trying to do something. We continue to be the state with the highest rate of uninsured."

However, the task force has no plans to lobby the Legislature to push for change, said its chairman, Steve Murdock, a Rice University sociology professor.

"We are information providers," he said. "We inform whoever will listen."

So let's review: Tax cuts, more money for roads beyond the Rainy Day diversion approved last year by voters, better private schools by diverting funds away from the public ones, and keeping the state budget balanced, all while the price of oil has dropped by almost the same percentage -- 67% -- as the number of Texans who did not vote last November.  Update: And before any of that happens, we need $6 billion more just to keep up.

Sounds like a plan!  Kansas and Mississippi ain't got nothin' on us. And some people are worried about Texas turning into California.  If it weren't so pathetic it might be funny.

Update: Meet your new revolutionaries in the Texas Senate.  Starring Dan Patrick as Che Guevara.