Monday, July 13, 2020

The Weekly Runoff Election Eve Wrangle (w/Election Day updates)


Update, Tuesday, July 14, pre-polls opening:

Six legislative incumbents were forced into runoffs when a majority of primary voters did not choose them back in March.
  • SD27 (D): Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (49.8%) vs. Sara Stapleton Barrera (36%)
  • HD2 (R): Rep. Dan Flynn (45%) vs. Bryan Slaton (36%)
  • HD59 (R): Shelby Slawson (46%) vs. Rep. J.D. Sheffield (30%)
  • HD100 (D): Rep. Lorraine Birabil (29%) vs. Jasmine Crockett (26%)
  • HD142 (D): Rep. Harold Dutton (45%) vs. Jerry Davis (25%)
  • HD148 (D): Rep. Anna Eastman (42%) vs. Penny Morales Shaw (22%)

Since 1996, 28 incumbent legislators have been forced into runoffs, and 23 of them have lost. All five who prevailed finished first in the primary election, and four of those finished at least 17 points ahead of their opponent in the primary election. This year, that would include Dutton and Eastman, who respectively have the third and fourth largest margin in the primary over their runoff opponent in 24 years.


Also from TXElects: "Heavy mail ballot count likely to delay election night calls in close races"

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Chicken Fried Politics (copy and links lightly edited for Lone Star relevance):

Voters in Alabama and Texas go to the polls Tuesday to decide several hotly contested U.S. Senate and House runoffs.

Trump features in several Congressional runoffs in the Lone Star State, notably in the 13th Congressional District (Texas Panhandle) where former White House doctor Ronny Jackson -- whom the president tried and failed to install as Veterans’ Affairs secretary in 2018 -- is competing with Josh Winegarner.  Jackson has the president’s endorsement.  Among Democrats, Greg Sagan will face Gus Trujillo.

In Texas' 17th District (Waco and parts of Central Texas), where incumbent Bill Flores is retiring, both parties are also holding runoffs.  Former U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, who rose to Republican leadership during two decades in Congress before losing his Dallas-area seat in 2018, is trying to make a comeback in a different district.  Sessions is facing businesswoman Renee Swann.  In the Democratic runoff, David Jaramillo will contend with Rick Kennedy.

In Texas' 22nd District (Sugar Land, southwestern Houston suburbs) Republicans will choose between Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls and businesswoman Kathaleen Wall  to replace retiring Pete Olson.  The winner will face Sri Preston Kulkarni in a fall contest that Democrats have targeted as a pickup opportunity. 

In Texas' 23rd District (West Texas, between San Antonio and El Paso), Iraq War veteran Tony Gonzales will square off against Raul Reyes, a builder and retired Air Force officer, in the Republican runoff.  Incumbent Will Hurd is retiring.  The winner will face Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who nearly defeated Hurd in 2018.

In Texas 24th District (Metro Dallas-Ft. Worth) Democrats Kim Olson, a retired Air Force colonel and former Weatherford school board member, will face Candace Valenzuela, who serves on the school board in Carrollton-Farmers Branch.  The winner will take on the Republican nominee, former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, for the right to succeed retiring incumbent Kenny Marchant in another race Democrats have targeted.

The Democratic runoff in Texas' 31st District (Northern Austin suburbs) features Donna Imam, an Austin computer engineer, against Christine Mann, a physician from Williamson County who lost the party’s runoff in this district in 2018.  The winner will face incumbent Republican John Carter, who is also on the Democrats’ target list.

And state Senator Royce West is competing with former Air Force combat pilot MJ Hegar, who narrowly lost to Carter in 2018, for the right to take on John Cornyn for a Senate seat that Democrats hope to flip in November.



Early voting ended Friday for Tuesday’s primary runoff and special elections. Across Texas, 647K people voted in the Democratic runoff -- 200K (31%) by mail-- accounting for 4% of registered voters statewide. Total votes cast already exceeds the total votes cast in each Democratic runoff since 1994 (747K).

I'll hold the presidential polling for the next White House Update.  Here's the latest on West/Hegar versus Cornyn.  Both the UT-Tyler poll released over the weekend and Cornyn's own pollster have Hegar leading with virtually the same percentage.


But Cornyn seems to want to run against Hegar, if his teevee ads attacking West as a "librul" can be interpreted as such.


Both our senators played "Quien es mas Stupido?" this past week.


Update: The man can't go one fucking day without making an ass of himself.


The State Bar of Texas elected ...well, you can read it for yourself.


Update: Texas lawyers want his resignation now, after three weeks as president.

Following up on an item in last week's Wrangle:


In media developments, a New Jersey hedge fund has been declared the high bidder for McClatchy, the company publishing the Fort Worth Star Telegram, the Miami Herald, the Kansas City Star, and 27 other daily newspapers.

Sanford Nowlin at the San Antonio Current reports that Rep. Joaquin Castro and several members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus have requested a sit-down with executives of two private prison companies, CoreCivic and GEO Group.  Both outfits also hold federal contracts to house immigrant detainees, and the treatment of those migrants has come under scrutiny in recent weeks.

Much more to post on social justice and the pandemic across the state, but wrapping up for today with the lighter side.


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Sunday, July 12, 2020

Sunday "Testing, Testing" Funnies

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Thursday, July 09, 2020

Lone Star Round Up: #CancelCulture comes for TXGOP-Con


Mayor Sylvester Turner exercised the nuclear option in stopping the RPT's state convention from becoming a super-spreader event in Space City next week.  Printers at the legal offices of conservative attorneys are whirring continuously as they churn out the lawsuits.

Update:

It's for their own good; they just don't get it.  Or refuse to.


A follow-up to a news item appearing in Monday's Wrangle:



I have an abundance of social justice pieces for this post.  Let me begin with the sad closing of the case of Vanessa Guillen; marches were held over the long holiday weekend last, and then crime investigators made the announcement everyone feared.


Sexual abuse and harassment of women detained by police officers -- a longtime and under-reported crime -- has become more blatant during the BLM protests.


LGBTQ community leaders have led the fight for Black Lives Matter in Houston.




In Denton -- not the most liberal bastion in the state -- community organizers have called for justice for Darius Tarver and the defunding of the city's police department.  The 20-year-old UNT student died in police custody in January.  His story is all too familiar by now.

Two environmental updates: first, the Permian Highway pipeline may suffer the same fate as the Keystone Xl and the Dakota Access pipelines.



Kinder Morgan’s 430-mile Permian Highway Pipeline faces a maze of litigation, and the legal action against other pipelines around the U.S. could have ripple effects in Texas.


Before I get to some election news ... we know that many of Trump's relatives and friends are on the dole as the CARES Act money was passed out, but a few Democrats also got caught with their hands in Uncle Sam's cookie jar.



The pre-eminent Texas Democratic election law attorney for two generations passed away over the Independence Day weekend.


And these to end the week.

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Wednesday, July 08, 2020

White House Update: Duck, Tucker! plus: Mary T's book, Greens convene, and Jo J's Boogaloo


Finally some lively topics.


-- In what could be a 2024 preview, "deeply silly" Tucker Carlson and rising vice-presidential hopeful Sen. Tammy Duckworth have been exchanging pleasantries over her patriotism and valor.

Their squabble isn't worth rehashing, but it opens the door for me to posit a few things:

1. Biden must not be thrilled with Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren as the finalists whom the media and online pundits have winnowed for him.  Otherwise he's just stringing people along.

2. Drawing out the veepstakes is thus growing unseemly, even if Old Joe did say it would be August before he decided.  Susan Rice, the Dems' version of Condi Rice -- whom Biden would choose if he could get away with it -- does not have the charisma or political experience for the job.  And now that Mayor Bottoms have tested positive for the virus, she's probably on the outside looking in.

3. If we really want to start playing 2024 already, then the betting opens with Pence, Tom Cotton, and Marco Rubio.  Can't think of any "moderate" that might wish to be flogged publicly just to find out his party isn't where he thought it would be post-Trump.

-- For a candidate I keep hearing is the most progressive evah, there sure are a lot of Republicans jumping on his bandwagon.


Can't say I have any love for the Lincoln Project either.


-- Is it trite to say that Trump is having another 'worst week ever'?


From the psychoanalysis (she IS one, as it turns out) of his upbringing to reports of his paying a classmate to take his SAT exams, it's a scathing expose'.  It's easy to understand why he fought its publication.  Then again, when you redefine "draining the swamp" as "pushing your snout into the government trough with all your swine friends", maybe you don't care what people think.

Tom Friedman suggests some debate rules for Biden that make sense.

“First, Biden should declare that he will take part in a debate only if Trump releases his tax returns for 2016 through 2018. ... No more gifting Trump something he can attack while hiding his own questionable finances.”

“And second, Biden should insist that a real-time fact-checking team approved by both candidates be hired by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates -- and that 10 minutes before the scheduled conclusion of the debate this team report on any misleading statements, phony numbers or outright lies either candidate had uttered. That way no one in that massive television audience can go away easily misled.”


-- That brings me, I suppose, to Kanye West.


He sat for an interview with Forbes in order to sound as serious as possible.  His platform?

  • He’s running for president in 2020 under a new banner -- the Birthday Party -- with guidance from Elon Musk and an obscure vice presidential candidate he’s already chosen. “Like anything I’ve ever done in my life,” says West, “I’m doing to win.”
  • He no longer supports President Trump. “I am taking the red hat off, with this interview.”
  • He’s ok with siphoning off Black votes from the Democratic nominee, thus helping Trump. “I’m not denying it, I just told you. To say that the Black vote is Democratic is a form of racism and white supremacy.”
  • He’s never voted in his life.
  • He was sick with Covid-19 in February.
  • He’s suspicious of a coronavirus vaccine, terming vaccines “the mark of the beast.”
  • He believes “Planned Parenthoods have been placed inside cities by white supremacists to do the Devil’s work.”
  • He envisions a White House organizational model based on the secret country of Wakanda in Black Panther.

As you could have guessed, this has Biden Bros crapping themselves.


The best the Donkeys could manage were comparisons to ... Jill Stein.


Joe Biden could do something about this himself, of course.  He simply can't.


Nothing will fundamentally change, after all.

-- David Collins reprinted the GPUS press release -- with speakers and schedule information -- for their upcoming convention this weekend.


-- Libertarian presidential nominee Jo Jorgensen may or may not have a Boogaloo problem.  IPR provides a summary:

The Guardian today published an article from Jason Wilson reporting on 2020 Libertarian presidential nominee Jo Jorgensen’s appearance on “Roads to Liberty” podcast, which Wilson claims is associated with the “Boogaloo” movement.  “Boogaloo” is the right wing codename for a second civil war.  Supporters of the movement want to bring about civil war either for racial or anti-government purposes.

Wilson connects one of those asking questions on the podcast, named “Squid,” to a Facebook group he says is “strewn with memes that reference insurrectionary violence, and appear to invoke white nationalist and neo-Nazi imagery and subject matter.”  Squid asks Jorgensen about “boogaloo” on the podcast but she does not seem to know much about it.


If you enjoy mindless digressions, the comments there go off to Nowheresville celebrating Ringo Starr's 80th birthday ("Back Off, Boogaloo").

-- And cryptocurrency entrepreneur Brock Pierce joined Kanye in the presidential indy lane.  He has the same ballot access hurdles as West and anyone else who might join the race this late in the cycle.
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