Wednesday, July 31, 2019

#DemDebate 2nd night: What's Biden got left?


For those who may be rationing their free articles at the NYT, here's the Detroit Freep, setting up this evening's action.

After a contentious first night Tuesday, round 2 of the Democratic battle for the presidency -- with a second group of 10 candidates -- continues at Detroit's Fox Theater on Wednesday night.

The marquee matchup will be between two front-runners in the polls: former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California, who clashed during the first round of debates last month in Miami, creating the most talked-about moments so far of the 2020 election cycle.

But the rest of the field for the second night has some heavy hitters as well; (several) looking for breakout moments during the two-hour forum on CNN. Others in the Wednesday night lineup are: U.S. Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado, Cory Booker of New Jersey and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York; former Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro of Texas, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and New York businessman Andrew Yang.

Kamala versus Sleepy Joe is a rematch, as we know, but Booker is coming loaded for bear, too.

“Joe Biden had more than 40 years to get this right. The proud architect of a failed system is not the right person to fix it,” Booker said in a statement released earlier this month.

The failed system Booker is referring to isn't healthcare or school busing, but the former veep's long record of bad choices and worse comments about race and criminal justice, going all the way back to 1994 and the crime bill he sheperded through the Congress when he was a senator from Delaware.


It's truly remarkable that African American voters are still standing by Old Joe.  Flanked tonight by Harris and Booker, if he can adequately defend himself or somehow turn the tables on his younger rivals ... well, it could be over for them.

“I got a past I’m proud of. They got a past that’s not quite so good,” said Biden, who refers frequently to his eight years as No. 2 to the first black U.S. president, Barack Obama.

But if he can't, it could be over for him.


To say that I'm pulling for the underdogs is an understatement.


Gillibrand's pitchfork is sharpened for Biden on women's issues.

“I’ve got to tell you, I’m really sick of it. I’m so freaking sick of it. I can’t tell you how angry I am that Democrats, Democrats turn a blind eye to sexual assault, sexual harassment and any reforms that value women in the workplace,” Gillibrand said. “And they play lip service to women and to women voters, but I promise you, every time the door of a negotiating room closes, women’s reproductive freedom, women’s rights, women’s equality is the first thing that’s thrown out the window to create a compromise, and that is compromise by Democrats and Republicans, both sides of the aisle in Congress.”

There's more and you should read it.

“My question to all of you as women, who do you want in the White House?” Gillibrand asked. “Do you want a woman who values you? Do you want a woman who will go to the mat for you every time? Not compromise on your women’s reproductive freedom? Not compromise on your worker’s rights? Not compromise on your ability to go to the workplace and not be sexually harassed?”

It's a strong argument, one that works not just on Gropey Joe but also the Rapist-in-Chief.

Anyway ... which Biden shows up?  The one who whipped Paul Ryan's ass in 2012, or the one who nearly fell asleep at the podium last month?

Even though the former vice president had a lackluster performance during the first Democratic debate in Miami, he still has a decent lead in all the polls taken since. When he cut himself off while responding to a contentious segment on race with the words "my time is up," many wondered whether he was talking about that segment or his time in the presidential race. (Supporters) expect Biden to walk a fine line of being aggressive enough to assuage worries that he's not up to the challenges of a campaign, but not too defiant to turn off some supporters. "I was probably overly polite" in the Miami debate, he said last week.

I can't wait to see if he can walk that line.


After several weeks of racist tweets from President Donald Trump regarding four Democratic members of Congress -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, Rashida Tlaib of Detroit and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota -- as well as tirades against U.S. Rep. Elijah Cummings of Maryland, the issue of race is sure to come up. And tonight's lineup includes three candidates of color: Harris, Booker, and Castro.

Biden's numerous gaffes about race over the years are bound to be referenced by one of his challengers.  But look for others besides those mentioned above to take a few swings at the hair-plugged pinata.

The fight will be on for the second- and third-tier candidates to break through and get some much-needed air time. Gillibrand, de Blasio, Gabbard and Inslee frequently tried to interrupt their way into the debate discussion in Miami, with varying degrees of success.

[...]

During the first debate, Castro landed some significant punches, especially on O'Rourke regarding immigration, and ended up getting a bump in the polls. But he appeared on the first of the two nights, when there weren't as many front-runners on stage. This time around, he'll probably have a larger audience and will be on the same stage with two of the leading candidates in the field.

It's make-or-break for Round 3 in H-Town after Labor Day, and more of these going tonight feel the stress of making that cut than yesterday's Mod Squad (thanks for that, Stace).

At stake is their future on the stage when it becomes harder for candidates to qualify. After the Detroit debate, candidates will have to rate above 2% in national polling and have contributions from at least 130,000 individual donors. Under that criteria, eight candidates -- Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Booker, Yang, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke -- have qualified for the next debate, Sept. 12-13 in Houston.

So pop your corn, get the pizza ordered early, settle in and watch the fireworks.
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Satisfying.


A handful of low-polling moderates hoped to break through in a crowded Democratic field during Tuesday's debate by confronting the top-tier candidates on stage, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Warren and Sanders withstood the attacks -- and counterpunched much harder.

The two most progressive candidates in the 2020 Democratic field struck inspirational tones, with Warren urging Democrats to be "the party of big, structural change." And they won over the crowd as they debated with moderate critics who tried to question their electability and the feasibility of their ideas, but failed to knock either candidate on their heels even once.

In the process, they could have eased primary voters' fears that their policy proposals would make ripe targets for President Donald Trump and the GOP in a general election.

You can read all the analysis and 'takeaways' you like.  Listen to the most ignorant talking heads (like Claire McCaskill, for one example) but none of it is going to be more accurate than this above.

I couldn't have scripted it any better myself.  And I'm certain that wasn't CNN's intention.  Ninety percent of the questions asked of every single candidate -- except one -- was some framing of "Do you agree with Senator Sanders' plan?"

Bernie: "You're wrong."  "I wrote the damn bill."  "(Healthcare) is not a business!"

Elizabeth: "I don't understand why anybody goes to the trouble of running for president of the United States just to talk about what we really can't do and shouldn't fight for."

Both: (Those are) "Republican talking points."

This was a TKO of Delaney, Ryan, Hickenlooper, and Bullock.  These losers should be considered surrogates for Biden, because the same beating is going to happen to him when he eventually winds up on a debate stage next to these two fighting progressives.

Beto and Klobuchar are barely being mentioned this morning, which tells you all you need to know about how their night went.  No breakthrough es no bueno.

That leaves Buttigieg and Marianne, who both had their moments of eloquence but are, in my humble O, equidistant in light years from the nomination.  Mayo Pete probably has a brighter political future as long as he can heal that racial divide that lives within him.

I expected the real fireworks to be tonight, as Castro, Booker, Harris, and maybe even Tulsi and Kristen could be counted on to treat Uncle Joe like a punching bag.  It's going to be a tall order to top last night for fun, but I think they can do it.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Fighting for M4A and Climate Justice

The early skirmishing hopefully telegraphs tonight's feuds.  First, the preliminaries:


This week’s second Democratic presidential debate will be another two-night extravaganza like the first, on Tuesday and Wednesday in Detroit.

CNN’s coverage of the debate will begin at 8 pm Eastern on both nights, though it’s not entirely clear if the debate itself will begin exactly then, or a bit afterward. A live stream of the debate will air on CNN.com.

On Tuesday, the first night of the debate, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke will be the leading candidates participating.

Also onstage will be Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, author Marianne Williamson, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock.

The pairing of Sanders and Warren will showcase the two major Democratic candidates who have eschewed big-dollar fundraising and who want to push the party much further to the left on economic issues -- though it is unclear whether they’ll focus on their areas of agreement or choose to spotlight their differences.

Of these ten, only the two progressives leading the field have advocated for Medicare for All.  As I have mentioned before, I expect Bernie and Elizabeth to be united in defending their plans, and their politics, against the onslaught of watered-down alternatives being offered by the others, onstage with them and also appearing on Wednesday.


All eight of these stragglers onstage tonight must score some debate points, so you should anticipate a bit of whining about 'soshulism', "we can't afford that", "running on tax increases will get Trump re-elected", and so on like that.

Sticking point.

If a robust defense of the death-for-profit health insurance companies and their multi-million dollar-compensated CEOs comes up, you might see a fissure break open between Sanders and the 'capitalist to her bones' Warren.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) pats Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on the back after Sanders spoke at a 
news conference on the Social Security system February 16, 2017, in Washington, DC. 
Win McNamee/Getty Images

For the first debate, by luck of the draw, Elizabeth Warren ended up on the first night with no other major candidates. This let her stand out as the preeminent candidate onstage, but it also prevented her from taking on any of her most important rivals face to face.

This time around, though, CNN’s random drawing resulted in Warren being paired with Sanders on the first night. The two agree on quite a lot -- they’ve condemned the influence of wealthy donors and the 1 percent, and generally want to push the Democratic Party further to the left on economic issues.

They also, however, have their differences. Sanders seems more focused on making Medicare for All a top priority and argues he can overcome entrenched interests by fomenting a people-powered “political revolution.” Warren is more inclined toward policy wonkery and an inside game of making change through the executive branch and regulatory policy.

Their campaigns have also had different trajectories up to this point, with Sanders’s support declining somewhat and Warren’s on the rise.

But while you might think that would spur Sanders to go on the attack and try to take Warren down a peg, CNN’s Gregory Krieg, MJ Lee, and Ryan Nobles report that the two candidates are expected to remain on friendly terms. When Sanders was asked what he’d expect from Warren on the debate stage last week, he answered: “intelligence.”

One potentially intriguing way this could play out is if Warren and Sanders unite to make a case that the Democratic Party needs to dramatically change its approach on economic issues -- and that the offstage Joe Biden wouldn’t bring such change.

Perhaps Bernie and Liz have been listening to Naomi Klein.  I and some number of Berners don't find ourselves in a place where we would be able to support Warren at this time, essentially due to her support of increasing Pentagon budgets and the genocide being practiced by Israel on the Palestinians.  But we may be just a noisy and inconsequential minority.  I suppose we'll see.

You can count on Boot Edge Edge -- one of the neoliberal whiners referenced above -- to parrot "Medicare for All who want it", and recent polling even seems to suggest his proposal is more popular than M4A.  But it is more accurate to say that the public is mostly confused and worried about change.  And the truth is that reforming healthcare is goddamned complicated, and that fact scares a lot of people.  (<<--Read every word here.)

As for climate change, climate chaos, and climate justice ...

Blighted home near the Marathon Refinery in Oakwood Heights, the southernmost neighborhood of Detroit, Michigan. (Photo credit: Julie Dermansky/Corbis via Getty Images)

Several 2020 presidential hopefuls are highlighting climate justice as a priority ahead of this week’s Democratic debates in Michigan, a state whose residents have faced persistent lead- and chemical-tainted water supplies along with dangerous air pollution and an impending, controversial pipeline project.

On Monday, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, the only candidate to build his campaign around climate change, released the final part of his five-prong climate policy proposal. Focused entirely on environmental justice, Inslee’s latest plan would direct $1 trillion over a decade toward a Community Climate Justice program to help low-income and minority communities deal with the impacts of local pollution and climate change.

Inslee would also shift the focus of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, renaming it the Council on Environmental Justice. The office, which oversees federal agency environmental reviews, would include representatives from pollution-impacted communities along with environmental organizations and business groups. An environmental justice office would also be opened at the Justice Department.

Also on Monday, The New York Times reported that Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) will join Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to introduce the Climate Equity Act, which would require the federal government to evaluate environmental regulations and legislation for their impact on low-income communities. While Harris’ campaign has yet to release a dedicated climate proposal, the bill provides insight into her environmental priorities.

The bill would create an independent Office of Climate and Environmental Justice Accountability to represent vulnerable communities. A senior climate justice adviser also would be created at “all relevant agencies.”

The two proposals come after billionaire 2020 candidate Tom Steyer last week released his own “justice-centered” plan for addressing climate change. The wide-ranging plan includes a commitment to the Paris climate agreement -- from which President Donald Trump has pledged to withdraw -- a net-zero emissions goal of 2045, and a civilian climate jobs corps.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) in April also unveiled a proposal he described as an environmental justice agenda, which includes working with impacted communities to strengthen environmental rules targeted for elimination or significantly weakened by the Trump administration.

According to the government’s own National Climate Assessment released last November, indigenous tribes, farm workers, and low-income communities of color are already bearing the brunt of climate change, and it’s set to get worse in places like Texas and Florida. Addressing this inequality is therefore critical to any climate action.

All those names in bold in this excerpt will be on Wednesday night's stage with the exception of Steyer, who's still left out altogether.  I'll preview more about them, and that, tomorrow after posting a recap of tonight's action tomorrow morning.

NPR suggests one other thing to watch for.

Though health care may be a prime issue, race has also dominated the run-up to the debates. The odd dynamic, by luck of the draw, is that all the candidates onstage on Night 1 are white. So how does race come up on an all-white stage?

It's certainly possible, as Buttigieg has been dealing with a controversy over race and police in his home town, where he's the mayor. And Warren has certainly put forward a comprehensive plan on racial equality and reducing racial differences in maternal mortality rates, for example.

Trump has made racial tension part of the 2020 GOP campaign platform.   If African Americans and Latinxs can't get motivated to vote after this ...
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