Sunday, February 17, 2019

Sunday Funnies




Butterfly refuge in south Texas files restraining order to stop border wall construction



Abuse of Faith: Investigation reveals 700 victims of Southern Baptist sexual abuse over 20 years




Friday, February 15, 2019

The Weekly Twenty Twenty Update

It's quite thin, as nobody jumped in or dropped out and those who were in -- or not in yet -- had little but stumbles and speculation for the media, corporate and social, to report and feud over.

-- Let's note that with a very large field of candidates, the DNC is already laying down debate rules well in advance of the first scheduled tilt, in June.

“As many as 20 Democratic presidential candidates will be invited to the party’s first sanctioned debates this summer if they can meet new polling or grass-roots fundraising thresholds to qualify,” the Washington Post reports.

“Candidates can qualify either by attracting campaign donations from at least 65,000 people, including at least 200 people from at least 20 states, or by registering at least 1 percent in three state or national polls from a list of surveys approved by the party.”


-- After launching her campaign during a blizzard, Amy Klobuchar had to speak to allegations about bullying her Senate staff.

“Yes, I can be tough, and yes I can push people. I have high expectations for myself, I have high expectations for the people that work for me, but I have high expectations for this country.”

The matter seems quelled, but look for questions about it during the next CNN townhall on Monday.

-- Speaking of Howard Schultz, his was a complete faceplant.  But guess what?  In our glorious democracy oligarchy/idiocracy, it doesn't matter.

On Tuesday night, CNN hosted a live town hall with former Starbucks CEO and potential presidential candidate Howard Schultz. It didn’t go particularly well. Schultz’s answers were largely vague, with occasional lapses into absurdity (“I didn’t see color as a young boy and I honestly don’t see color now,” Schultz said when asked about race).

But more interesting than the town hall’s content was its existence. Lots of people with no base of political support would like to run for president, but they can’t, because the media wouldn’t take their candidacies seriously. So why is Schultz, a political newcomer who “had the worst numbers of any potential candidate tested” in CNN’s own poll, getting such red-carpet treatment?

The answer, of course, is money. Schultz is a billionaire, and in American politics, money is a shortcut to legitimacy.

“Schultz doesn’t have to do the hard work of building a mass movement or representing a genuine constituency to get attention in our politics, because the media uses ability to spend money as a proxy for seriousness of campaign,” says Lee Drutman, a political scientist at New America. “And when the media bestows seriousness on a candidate, the public follows along.”

This, as everyone with a functioning brain understands, is exactly how Donald Trump came to be the 45th POTUS.  What's unfortunate is that many of those who voted for him -- unlike those in the executive offices of our corporate media, which just needs to cash the checks -- do not have functioning brains.  Zombies vote, y'all, and they vote a straight GOP ticket.

-- Turns out Kamala Harris is a Rap Genius.



Yeah, my favorite rap song from Fresh Prince was Purple Rain.

Quickly recovering, Senator Copmala announced the endorsement of progressive lioness Barbara Lee, which instantly became a bone of contention for the Berners.

-- Beto O'Rourke trumped Trump's rally in El Paso and then fueled speculation about a potential US Senate race by meeting with Chuck Schumer this week.  Politico also quoted someone anonymously saying that US Rep. Joaquin Castro would run against John Cornyn if Beto decided not to.

"Joaquin believes Beto could beat John in 2020, and if Beto decides to see this thing through and do that, then Joaquin will give him his full support, just like he did against Ted Cruz,” a source close to Castro told POLITICO. “Otherwise, Joaquin will absolutely consider jumping in and finishing the job."

This smells like twin peaks of Castro bullshit to me.  Here's a few reasons why.

1.  Beto hasn't even decided whether to jump in the presidential scrum, yet he's polling considerably stronger than Julián, and will move into the top five front-runners when he announces.

O'Rourke's e-mail network of small donors, at 743,000, is only one-third that of Bernie Sanders' -- whose 2.1 million base is larger than all other Democrats in the hunt -- but is still double that of his closest rivals (Warren, Gillibrand, Harris).  Castro has fewer than 900.

2.  It's Julián who is more likely to drop out and run against Cornyn, because he's not currently employed in government like Joaquin, his campaign is unlikely to gain traction among so many other cautious centrists, and he doesn't want to be anybody's running mate this time around.  He said so just last week (scroll to the end).

3.  Joaquin not only has some tenure in the D caucus -- he's already been a deputy whip and a chair of the Hispanic Caucus -- he sits on the House Intelligence Committee, which is a plum job for anybody with a base of representation that includes so many service members and veterans, like San Antonio's 20th District.  (Candidly, he or his brother could have defeated both Beto and Ted Cruz in 2018 if they hadn't been too fucking scared of losing.  Their reticence let Beto zoom right past them.  Don't take my word for it; read the third graf at Joaquin's Wiki.)

There's no good reason for Joaquin to give up all he's earned in a Dem majority in the House to shoot for a seat in the minority in the Senate.  Julián, on the other hand, has nothing left to wait around for if -- when -- his 2020 bid peters out.  Governor in 2022?  Not a chance if he's at 1% or less in the presidential polls in December.

And by the way: either Castro scares Wendy Davis and MJ Hegar right out of the Senate race, because even white centrist Democratic women can't compete with a Latinx of the same ideological stripe.  If neither Castro runs and one of Hegar or Davis does, look for Sema Hernandez to win the primary on the strength of the Latinx effect in statewide Donkey primaries.  She got 24% of the vote against Beto in 2018 spending just $5K, and similar to Maria Luisa Alvarado in 2006 and Linda Chavez-Thompson in 2010 -- who mashed their Caucasian establishment counterparts -- Hernandez can win the Senate primary with some reasonable fundraising even as the corporate media pretends she doesn't exist.

Beto's running for the White House in 2020, and when he comes up short will gladly be somebody's running mate.  Julián Castro could -- perhaps even should, but may still be too afraid to -- run against Cornyn in 2020.  Joaquin Castro needs to stay in Congress.

That's my reading of the cabrito entrails this week.

Monday, February 11, 2019

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Seemingly-Progressive (But-on-Closer-Inspection-is-Just-Plain-Vanilla-Democrat) Alliance wants to be in El Paso today, but too much 'executive time' last week means we're on the sidelines, aka online (virtual reality) and not offline (reality).


Trump's rally this evening in Las Ciudades de Paso del Norte, or the conurbation of communities where the Franklin Mountains meet the Rio Grande, will occupy (sorry) a large part of the corporate media's attention.  The history of humans in the region is long, much of it economic, only a small part conflict-centered; read an overview here.  What a small-minded US president would wish in order to divide people that have lived for centuries in relative harmony is, quite simply, unlikely to happen.

A variety of groups are organizing to more clearly communicate that to him today.  Potential presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke will speak at the competing counter-protest, creating the kind of "us versus them" narrative the media thrives on.

In Lege developments, the confirmation of Texas Secretary of State nominee David Whitley hit rocky shoals as senators grilled him over a voter roll released to county election administrators described as identifying non-citizens.  The list of 95,000 voters has shown to have been poorly vetted, and state officials who initially gave it their approval, including Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton, have been accused of employing a time-honored GOP tactic of voter suppression and intimidation.  Latinx civil rights organizations have already filed suit.


Several reports on the state Senate's property tax plan found it lacking; the TSTA Blog was notably unimpressed.  Justin Miller at the Texas Observer.

Critics of the GOP’s property tax cap have blasted it as a cynical, unserious attempt at reform — and one that likely won’t even provide much in the way of relief, especially if the Legislature doesn’t inject millions of new dollars in public school funding, which is mostly paid for through local property taxes. As the Dallas Morning News reported, more than half of the state’s 254 counties and the vast majority of its cities will be exempt from the GOP’s current 2.5 percent property tax cap proposal. This is a clear ploy to ensure rural Republican support in the House and Senate, Democrats say.

“That’s the only way they know they can get this to the floor. That is just not good governing,” Senator John Whitmire, D-Houston, said at a press conference.

Ross Ramsey at the TexTrib, via Progrexas, can be summarized thusly:

The state government wouldn’t survive its own proposal.

Raise Your Hand Texas advocates for separating school funding from high-stakes testing, and Gizmodo reports on legislation that would prevent the telecoms from throttling wireless access during a natural disaster.

A version of the bill, which has been brought before the Texas House of Representatives, amends Texas law to state: “A mobile Internet service provider may not impair or degrade lawful mobile Internet service access in an area subject to a declared state of disaster.”  [...]  Per KUT News, it’s one of more than 100 state bills aimed at protecting internet access introduced since the Republican-controlled Federal Communications Commission and its telecom-friendly chief Ajit Pai gutted Barack Obama-era net neutrality rules in a 2017 vote.

PDiddie at Brains and Eggs had the weekly 2020 Democratic presidential candidate update, with both Liz Warren and Amy Klobuchar making their White House bids official.  (Trump kept up the 'Pocahontas' smear.)  Some Texas Democrats want Beto to run for the US Senate again instead of the White House.  And Howard Schultz's CNN townhall is broadcasting from Houston tomorrow night.

Off the Kuff considers John Cornyn's campaign strategy and what it says about how Texas Republicans are looking at 2020.

Somervell County Salon blogged about the Houston Chronicle's investigation into the sexual abuse cases of the Southern Baptist Convention's pastors and preachers.

The Green New Deal, and Speaker Pelosi's objections to it, was duly noted by David Collins.

SocraticGadfly read Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice Nathan Hecht's lament about some of the judges unseated in November and had a two-pronged response.  Hecht squeezed a bunch of political sour grapes, but Texas could adopt specific ideas from other states on better judicial selection.


In his weekly statewide roundup of criminal justice news, Scott Henson at Grits for Breakfast joined others in dismissing the request by Kim Ogg of hiring more criminal prosecutors in order to "advance the docket".

The Harris County DA's request for 102 new prosecutors is meeting with spirited opposition from local reform groups. Grits opposes such an expansion unless 1) the county approves commensurate, new resources for indigent defense, and 2) the funding pays for caseload reduction, not filing new cases. (The HouChron's) Keri Blakinger elaborated on the story in her Twitter feed.

Better Texas Blog warns about undercounting Latinx children in the Census.

Stephen Young at the Dallas Observer thinks the end may finally be near for Dallas' downtown Confederate memorial.

Max Concrete at Houston Strategies collects ridership figures from the Dallas light rail system and analyzes it as a cautionary tale for Houston's MetroNext plans.

The Lunch Tray updates on 'lean finely textured ground beef', otherwise known as pink slime.

Millard Fillmore's Bathtub posts this month's dates to fly your flag.

And Harry Hamid is Trigger's broom.

Friday, February 08, 2019

The Friday 2020s update


This weekend's official kickoffs include Liz Warren and Amy KlobucharCory Booker's declaration fizzled pretty quickly.  Sherrod Brown is going to wait until next month to tell us what he's doing.

-- Let's get the GOP out of the way at the top: former Libertarian vice presidential candidate William Weld is making all the right moves to challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

The clerk’s office in Canton, Massachusetts, confirms on Tuesday that Weld recently changed his party registration to the GOP. If he runs for president as a Republican, he could be Trump’s first challenger within the party. Weld has not returned messages from The Associated Press. He recently told WMUR-TV in New Hampshire that he would discuss his potential political plans during a Feb. 15 visit to the first primary state.

-- Now let's look at the Daily Kos Straw Poll, which the Interweb's most notorious Bernie-hater always spins against Sanders.  Here's the full results; here's the manipulated results.  There's more OCD vitriol from Markos at that second link, which you're welcome to read on your own.  Warning: It's clearly Bernie-Derangement Syndrome in full manifestation.

Kamala Harris is still the Kossack's chosen one despite having no issues pages posted to her website yet.  Lots of platitudes, plenty of swag, no policy.  I find that kind of ridiculous at this point.

-- Warren tripped again over her heritage.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is once again apologizing for claiming Native American ancestry after the Washington Post reported that she filled out a registration card for the State Bar of Texas in 1986 and wrote "American Indian" in the line asking her race. 

Her inability to resolve this matter obviously keeps it teed up for Trump to ridicule, and will be the chink in her armor until she can get it patched.

-- Bernie delivered a rebuttal to Trump's SOTU for which he drew bouquets from his supporters and brickbats from his detractors.  Not because of anything he said, mind you.  Just that he had the audacity to say it.



-- Joe Biden is lining up endorsements on Capitol Hill.  Recent polls favor his entrance.

Biden was the top performer in a Monmouth University poll gauging presidential preferences among registered Democrats. The former vice president received 29 percent support, with the next-closest finisher earning 16 percent. He also earned the highest net favorability rating, with 80 percent of registered Democrats viewing him favorably to 9 percent who viewed him unfavorably.

A CNN poll Wednesday showed that a majority of Democrats — 62 percent — wanted Biden to enter the presidential race.

Politico reported Thursday that Biden was nearing a decision on a run, and was reaching out to Capitol Hill allies including Sens. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., Bob Casey, D-Pa., and Chris Coons, D-Del., as well as Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C.

They like him in Iowa, too.  Uncle Joe would be the establishment's choice, perceived as having some ability to attract white blue-collar workers in Midwestern states back to the Donkey barn, which is viewed in the autopsy of Hillary Clinton's epic fail as her weakest link.  Some of us aren't so sure about Joe, including kos (from above).

Biden has his Anita Hill problem, authorship of that hated crime bill, and sell-past-date feeling. He can exit stage left a winner, or go out a loser.

Howie Klein:

Biden has started -- and aborted -- four runs for president in the past. His brand of Republican-lite centrism is worshiped Inside the Beltway. Outside? Not so much. He never polled outside single digits -- low single digits. Early Monday, Atlantic columnist Edward-Isaac Dovere asserted that as Biden contemplates a 2020 run, he is focused on whether primary voters will support a centrist septuagenarian. He's riding very high in the polls right now, but the overwhelming majority of people who back him don't know his sexist, racist corporate, pro-war record. And if he runs, they'll find out who the real Joe Biden is. Most of the low-info voters selecting him in polls, just see him as a stand-in for Obama ...

Within this Axios piece about Howard Schultz -- his CNN townhall is in Houston next week -- there was this, which was the most revealing thing I read about Biden's potential candidacy.

If Biden runs, look for (billionaire and former NY Mayor Michael) Bloomberg and (former VA Governor Terry) McAuliffe to bow out, the sources tell us.

-- In 'News You May Have Missed' Department, Marianne Williamson also jumped in.  See these posts from Democratic Underground and Down With Tyranny.



Still think she'd make the perfect successor to Jill Stein, running under the Green Party banner.

-- Finally, the Dithering of Beto reaches another crescendo.

O’Rourke admitted to “thinking about running for president” during a conversation with Oprah Winfrey in New York City Tuesday and said, of the prospect of helping to unify the country, “I’m so excited at the prospect of being able to play that role.” He said he would announce his decision about a run “before the end of the month.”

His Hamlet-esque ruminations have prompted much speculation, as well as heaps of unsolicited advice.  Let's go back once again to Nasty Markos.

Beto isn’t someone who will take the fight to the enemy, preferring to run as an eternal optimist. He wouldn’t even attack Ted Cruz, who was so attackable! I don’t criticize. There’s a place for that kind of politics, particularly in a red-to-purpling state like Texas. But for a Democratic presidential primary? I have doubts. And clearly, so does he.

Witness Beto’s precipitous collapse (in the DK poll) as other candidates emerge. His announcement delay may not be fatal if he eventually decides to run, but he just got off a brutal and long Senate battle. He clearly needed to recharge. Yet the race is rich in talent, so what’s his lane? The fresh new face? (Kamala) Harris has snagged that mantle.

More goat-entrail reading from Politico, with their premise being that Beto and others are waiting to see if some of the early front-runners stumble (note Warren's Native American problems and Harris' glossing over her questionable prosecutorial record).

O’Rourke, who [was quoted saying two days before his Oprah interview that] his decision could “potentially” take months, said, “There are people who are smarter on this stuff and study this stuff and are following this and say you’ve got to do it this way or get in by this point or get in in this way if you were to get in.”

However, he said, “I think the truth is that nobody knows right now the rules on any of this stuff. I think the rules are being written in the moment.”

This leaves geniuses like Gilberto Hinojosa and Ed Espinosa of Progress Texas and Matt Angle of the Lone Star Project to offer Bob some career advice: run for the Senate against John Cornyn.  Because if he doesn't, who will?  (Clue to all of these Jackasses: there is a candidate running, an excellent progressive, and she drew 24% of the vote in the 2018 Democratic primary against O'Rourke despite raising only a few thousand dollars.  Get to know her.  Again.)


But to answer the question: perhaps Julián Castro, if you can believe what he's saying about his no-traction presidential campaign.

Appearing on “Jimmy Kimmel Live” Tuesday night, Castro said he wasn’t interested in being another Democrat’s running mate should he not capture the nomination for himself, explaining that he’s “been there and done that last time,” in reference to his 2016 vetting by Hillary Clinton.

Frankly, I believe him.  My early money is going on Beto running for president, and staying in that race past the deadline to file for the US Senate -- which is in December of this year -- while Castro will eventually drop out and challenge Cornyn.

We'll see how it goes.